Report Industry Investment Rating - US stocks: Standard allocation [29] - European stocks: Overweight allocation [31] - Chinese A - shares: Standard allocation [33] - Hong Kong stocks: Standard allocation [34] - Japanese stocks: Overweight allocation [36] - Indian market: Underweight allocation [38] - US bond market: Overweight allocation [55] - Chinese bond market: Overweight allocation [59] - Japanese bond market: Underweight allocation [60] - European bond market: Standard allocation [62] Core Viewpoints of the Report - In February 2026, the global market was highly differentiated. The Japanese stock market led the world, while the Hang Seng Tech Index tumbled. The HALO trading strategy dominated the US and European stock markets [26][28][31] - The performance of the US economy showed mixed signals. The employment data was positive, but the inflation data provided room for policy adjustment. The economic expansion pace in the US slowed down [7][15] - In the Chinese market, the inflation pressure was weak, the financial data was strong, but the real - estate recovery lacked momentum. The stock market was supported by liquidity, but the overall economic recovery needed time [18][33] - Central bank policies around the world varied. The European Central Bank maintained the deposit rate, the Bank of England signaled a possible interest - rate cut, and the Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rates [21] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Market - **Global Stock Market Performance**: In February, the Japanese stock market (Nikkei 225 Index) soared by 16.91% year - to - date. The Hang Seng Tech Index dropped significantly, with a year - to - date decline of 6.86%. The US stock market was divided, with technology stocks dragging down the market [25][28] - **US Stocks**: The S&P 500 Index fell 1.43% in February. The software industry's decline stabilized, and the HALO trading strategy was dominant. The Middle East situation had a short - term impact on the market [29][30][31] - **European Stocks**: The European STOXX 600 Index rose 3.38% in February. European stocks benefited from the HALO trade, and Germany's fiscal policy supported the economy. However, the Middle East conflict was a risk factor [31] - **Chinese A - shares**: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.56% in February. The market was supported by liquidity, but the overall economic recovery was slow, and structural opportunities were prominent [33] - **Hong Kong Stocks**: The Hang Seng Index fell 1.83% in February. The Hang Seng Tech Index led the decline due to AI substitution concerns and reduced profit visibility. However, the valuation was at a low level globally [34] - **Japanese/Indian Markets**: The Japanese stock market was boosted by political events and economic improvement. The Indian stock market was affected by the uncertain trade agreement, IT sector risks, and the Middle East situation [36][38][40] Bond Market - **Primary Market**: In February, the issuance of Chinese - funded US dollar bonds decreased due to the Spring Festival, while the issuance of offshore RMB bonds increased significantly [44] - **Secondary Market**: Markit iBoxx Chinese - funded US dollar investment - grade and high - yield bond indices rose in February. The real - estate, city - investment, and financial bond indices also showed positive performance [47][49] - **Global Bond Market Performance**: In February, major bond markets generally rose. US Treasury bonds, European government bonds, and Chinese government bonds all had positive returns [51] - **US Bond Market**: The US bond market rose in February due to the Middle East situation and AI concerns. However, there was a potential for a correction in March. The reasons for the overweight allocation were the expected Fed policy easing and multiple hedging needs [55][56] - **Chinese Bond Market**: The Chinese bond market had positive returns in February. The reasons for the overweight allocation were the normalization of central - bank bond trading and policy support [59] - **Japanese Bond Market**: The Japanese bond market showed a short - term recovery in February, but long - term risks remained due to fiscal expansion and inflation concerns. It was underweighted [60] - **European Bond Market**: The European bond market had a positive performance in February. The market was in a standard allocation due to supply pressure and external uncertainties [62][63] Foreign Exchange Market - **Market Performance**: In February, the US dollar index rose slightly, the RMB appreciated, and the Australian dollar remained strong [67][68] - **Driving Factors**: The Fed's policy orientation affected the US dollar. The Chinese central bank guided the RMB exchange rate, and the Australian central bank's interest - rate hike supported the Australian dollar [68] Commodity Market - **Market Performance**: In February, gold rebounded strongly, crude oil prices fluctuated at a high level, and iron ore prices declined [72] - **Driving Factors**: Geopolitical uncertainties drove up gold and crude oil prices, while high iron ore inventories pressured its price [72] Fund Market - **Selected Funds**: The report recommended various funds, including money - market funds, short - term bond funds, investment - grade bond funds, and stock funds from different regions [75]

Summary of Conference Call on the Express Delivery Industry Industry Overview - The conference focused on the express delivery industry, particularly the company Yunda Express. - The total express delivery volume from December 29, 2025, to March 1, 2026, reached 32.873 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of approximately 6.35% [1] - The total delivery volume during the same period was 32.912 billion pieces, with a year-on-year growth of about 5.24% [1] Core Insights and Arguments - The growth rate of the express delivery industry is better than previously expected, indicating strong demand resilience despite earlier concerns about a slowdown [2][3] - The industry experienced a significant decline in growth rates in Q4 2025, with growth rates of 21.64%, 17.32%, 13.35%, and 4.97% across the quarters [2] - The recent data from January and February 2026 shows a steady growth trend, with a 6% increase in volume, which is better than the pessimistic forecasts [3][4] - The government has emphasized anti-monopoly and fair competition measures, which are expected to stabilize pricing and improve market conditions [5][6][7] Pricing and Competition - The pricing environment has stabilized since August 2025, reducing the likelihood of aggressive price competition [4][5] - The government’s anti-involution policies are expected to continue, promoting fair competition and reducing irrational pricing behaviors [6][7] - The focus on improving service quality among express delivery companies is expected to lead to a more refined competitive landscape [8][9] Company-Specific Insights: Yunda Express - Yunda Express was founded in 1999 and has undergone significant digital transformation since 2012 [12] - The company faced challenges during the pandemic, leading to a decline in market share and operational performance [13][14] - In 2024, Yunda's net profit reached approximately 1.914 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.77% [15] - The company has focused on cost reduction and efficiency improvements, with a significant decrease in operational costs per package [17][18] Financial Performance - In 2024, Yunda's express delivery volume was approximately 23.783 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 26.14% [17] - The cost per package decreased to 1.83 yuan in the first half of 2025, down 0.06 yuan year-on-year [17] - The company’s net profit per package in Q3 2025 was approximately 0.031 yuan, reflecting a decline due to structural changes in package types [21][23] Future Outlook - The express delivery industry is expected to enter a phase of slower growth in volume but stable pricing, with a focus on enhancing service quality [26][27] - Leading companies are likely to benefit from established competitive advantages, leading to market share differentiation [27] - Yunda Express's future performance will depend on its ability to optimize internal operations and adapt to market changes [25][28] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies like Zhongtong and Yuantong, which are expected to maintain competitive advantages and improve profitability [27] - Attention should also be given to Shentong for potential investment opportunities due to its performance elasticity amid ongoing anti-involution measures [27] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed during the conference call, providing insights into the express delivery industry and the specific performance and strategies of Yunda Express.

Group 1: Industry Insights on Holiday Consumption - The bright performance of holiday consumption during the Spring Festival in 2026 is attributed to a combination of the holiday consumption pulse effect, intensified policy support, and an extended holiday duration [1][12] - Service consumption saw a significant increase, with tourism spending rising by 18.7% year-on-year, while retail and catering consumption grew by 5.7%, surpassing the previous year's growth rates [1][12] - The pulse effect of holiday consumption is particularly pronounced among wage earners, whose consumption behavior is more reliant on holiday windows, leading to concentrated spending during the holiday period [12][13] Group 2: Consumer Trends and Policy Impact - The high growth in goods consumption during the holiday is primarily driven by the implementation of the "old-for-new" policy, rather than a significant holiday pulse effect [12][13] - Sales of six categories of home appliances and four categories of digital products benefiting from the "old-for-new" subsidies increased by 21.7% year-on-year, significantly outpacing overall goods consumption growth during the holiday [12][13] - The overall consumer demand remains weak when combining data from January and February, indicating that the foundation for a comprehensive recovery is not yet solid [4][12] Group 3: Sector-Specific Performance - In the energy and resources sector, coal supply constraints have intensified, while demand remains weak and stable, leading to a mixed price performance [3][26] - The real estate sector experienced a notable decline in new and second-hand housing transaction volumes, with investment continuing to drop during the seasonal low [3][34] - The financial sector saw an increase in A-share market activity, with new credit issuance exceeding expectations in January [3][11] Group 4: Future Outlook - The transmission of consumer recovery from corporate profit stabilization to disposable income growth is critical for future consumption trends [2][13] - The ongoing decline in disposable income growth, which was approximately 4.3% year-on-year as of December 2025, poses a constraint on consumption [2][13] - The adjustment of consumption targets by local governments for 2026 indicates a cautious outlook for overall consumer recovery, with many provinces lowering their retail sales growth targets [2][13]

Market Performance - On March 9, 2026, the BeiJiao 50 index fell by 2.32%[1] - The average market capitalization of BeiJiao listed companies is 3.004 billion RMB, with a trading volume of 23.337 billion RMB, an increase of 4.071 billion RMB from the previous trading day[1] Capital Market News - The Minister of Transport reported that China's express delivery volume has ranked first globally for 12 consecutive years, with approximately 200 billion packages delivered last year[6] - The National People's Congress plans to formulate laws related to state-owned assets and finance in 2026, aiming to enhance the socialist market economy[8] Industry News - The AI assistant OpenClaw has gained significant attention, capable of autonomously managing devices and executing complex tasks, raising both interest and security concerns in the market[9][12] - In the first two months of 2026, Shanghai's port recorded a historical high of 7,281 international vessels, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%[13] Company Announcements - QiuGuan Cable won a bid for projects worth 350.877 million RMB from the Southern Power Grid, which is expected to positively impact future business performance[28] - TaiPeng Intelligent's subsidiary in Thailand has been approved to establish a free trade zone, facilitating tax exemptions and streamlined customs processes[29] Risk Warnings - Potential risks include individual stock earnings falling short of expectations, intensified industry competition, increased trade frictions, and unfavorable policy changes[31]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the transportation industry, indicating a positive outlook for specific sectors within the industry [3]. Core Insights - Geopolitical risk premiums are embedded in tanker freight rates, with a focus on the defensive value of dividend assets [1]. - The shipping market is under pressure due to escalating conflicts in the Middle East, leading to a tightening of the tanker market and increased freight rates [16]. - Infrastructure assets are expected to see valuation recovery, with a recommendation to select stocks that offer dividend benefits [19]. - The air travel sector is experiencing a growth trend in demand, but caution is advised regarding the impact of rising oil prices on profitability [25]. - The express delivery sector is showing signs of recovery in demand growth, with potential for valuation improvement as competition stabilizes [21]. Shipping Sector Summary - The shipping industry is experiencing a rise in freight rates due to geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, with specific routes seeing significant price increases [12][16]. - The SCFI index shows a weekly increase, with notable rises in rates for routes to the US and Europe [32]. - The report suggests focusing on shipping stocks such as COSCO Shipping Energy, COSCO Shipping Holdings, and others for potential investment opportunities [16]. Infrastructure Sector Summary - Weekly data indicates a significant increase in truck traffic, with a 229.7% week-on-week growth, although year-on-year comparisons show a decline [17][19]. - Port throughput has increased by 25.2% week-on-week, indicating a recovery trend despite a year-on-year decline [19]. - Recommended stocks in the infrastructure sector include Anhui Expressway, Tangshan Port, and Qingdao Port, which are seen as stable cash flow assets [19]. Express Delivery Sector Summary - The express delivery sector is witnessing a rebound in demand, with a 424.9% increase in collection volume week-on-week [21]. - The report highlights the competitive landscape, suggesting that regulatory support may enhance price stability and improve stock performance for leading companies [21]. - Recommended stocks include Shentong Express, Yunda Express, and SF Express, which are expected to benefit from operational optimizations [21]. Aviation Sector Summary - The aviation sector is experiencing a growth in passenger volume, with a year-on-year increase of 27.5% during the Spring Festival period [25]. - However, rising oil prices due to geopolitical tensions pose a risk to profitability, necessitating caution [25]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring oil price trends and their potential impact on airline stocks [25].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an overall investment rating for the industry Core Views - The express delivery sector is positively influenced by regulatory measures against "involution" competition, with a focus on stabilizing prices and improving service quality, which is expected to enhance profitability for leading companies like Zhongtong Express and Jitu Express [2] - The logistics sector is recommended to focus on smart logistics, with companies like Haichen Co. being highlighted due to the anticipated recovery in chemical logistics driven by rising chemical product prices [3] - The aviation sector shows signs of recovery with increased flight volumes and potential for improved profitability as oil prices stabilize [4] - The shipping sector is experiencing high freight rates due to geopolitical tensions affecting oil transport routes, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz [5] - The road and rail sectors are noted for their steady performance, with opportunities for investment in companies with attractive dividend yields [6] Summary by Sections Transportation Market Review - The transportation index fell by 0.7% last week, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index decreased by 1.1%, indicating a slight outperformance of the transportation sector [1][13] Industry Fundamentals Tracking Shipping Ports - The export container shipping market is under pressure, with the China Container Freight Index (CCFI) at 1044.57 points, down 4.0% week-on-week and 20.8% year-on-year [21] - High oil transport rates are maintained due to geopolitical tensions, with the BDTI index rising to 2868.4 points, up 51.4% week-on-week and 225.4% year-on-year [40] Aviation Airports - The average daily flights in China increased by 17.86% year-on-year, with domestic flights up by 19.64% [4] - Brent crude oil prices rose to $92.69 per barrel, impacting operational costs for airlines [67] Rail and Road - The national highway freight traffic saw a significant increase of 229.68% week-on-week, although it remains down 35.52% year-on-year [84] - The railway sector reported a passenger volume increase of 8.52% year-on-year, indicating a positive trend in rail transport [82] Express Logistics - The express delivery sector recorded a collection volume of approximately 4.231 billion packages, up 12.6% year-on-year, while delivery volume decreased by 6.3% year-on-year [2]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall investment rating for the industry Core Views - The express delivery sector is positively influenced by regulatory measures against "involution" competition, with a focus on stabilizing prices and improving service quality, which is expected to enhance profitability for leading companies like Zhongtong Express and Jitu Express [2] - The logistics sector is recommended to focus on smart logistics, with companies like Haichen Co., Ltd. being highlighted due to the anticipated recovery in chemical logistics driven by rising chemical product prices [3] - The aviation sector shows signs of recovery with increased flight volumes and potential for improved profitability as supply constraints ease, recommending investments in major airlines such as Air China and China Southern Airlines [4] - The shipping sector is experiencing high freight rates due to geopolitical tensions affecting oil transport routes, with a focus on maintaining high rates despite fluctuations in container shipping indices [5] - The road and rail sectors are showing stable growth, with opportunities for investment in highway operators due to attractive dividend yields compared to government bond rates [6] Summary by Sections Transportation Market Review - The transportation index fell by 0.7% last week, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index decreased by 1.1%, indicating a slight outperformance of the transportation sector [1][13] Industry Fundamentals Tracking Shipping Ports - The shipping market is facing challenges due to geopolitical tensions, with the CCFI index at 1044.57 points, down 4.0% week-on-week and down 20.8% year-on-year [21] - Oil transport indices are high, with the BDTI index at 2868.4 points, up 51.4% week-on-week and up 225.4% year-on-year, indicating strong demand and pricing power in oil shipping [40] Aviation Airports - The average daily flights increased by 17.86% year-on-year, with domestic flights up 19.64%, suggesting a recovery in air travel demand [4] - Brent crude oil prices rose to $92.69 per barrel, impacting operational costs for airlines, but potential easing of geopolitical tensions may improve margins [67] Road and Rail - The highway sector showed a significant increase in truck traffic, with 32.72 million vehicles recorded, up 229.68% week-on-week, indicating robust demand [84] - Rail freight volumes are stabilizing, with a slight increase in passenger turnover, suggesting a positive trend in rail transport [82] Express Logistics - The express delivery sector saw a collection volume of approximately 4.231 billion packages, up 12.6% year-on-year, indicating strong growth potential [2]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the industry [2] Core Insights - The aviation sector is expected to see good growth in both volume and price during the Spring Festival travel season, with a projected increase in passenger load factor by over 2 percentage points year-on-year and a domestic ticket price increase of over 4% [4][5] - The oil shipping sector is experiencing significant profit increases due to geopolitical tensions, with VLCC TCE rates soaring to around $480,000, indicating a strong market outlook [5][21] - Policies aimed at boosting consumption and reducing competition in the logistics sector are expected to benefit the aviation and express delivery industries [5] Summary by Sections Aviation - The report highlights a 4.9% year-on-year increase in overall passenger flow during the first 33 days of the Spring Festival, with aviation specifically seeing a 6.4% increase [6][7] - The estimated domestic ticket prices are expected to rise by over 4% year-on-year, while the average domestic aviation fuel price has decreased by 8%, leading to improved profit margins for airlines [5] - The report anticipates a "super cycle" in aviation profitability driven by sustained demand and low supply growth, recommending stocks such as Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and Spring Airlines [5] Oil Shipping - The report notes that geopolitical risks have driven oil shipping rates to record highs, with a focus on the changes in the gray market and their long-term implications [5] - The TCE for VLCCs from the Middle East to China has surged, with significant shifts in demand towards other oil-producing regions due to reduced Middle Eastern exports [5] - The report suggests monitoring gray market developments, which could create unexpected supply-demand dynamics and accelerate the retirement of older vessels [5] Policy Impact - The report discusses how government policies aimed at stimulating consumption and addressing "involution" in competition will positively impact the aviation and express delivery sectors [5] - It predicts that the express delivery industry will see stable volume growth and price increases, benefiting leading companies like ZTO Express and SF Express [5] - The report also emphasizes the potential for healthy growth in cross-border logistics driven by supportive policies [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the shipping industry, particularly highlighting companies such as China Merchants Energy, COSCO Shipping Energy, and ST Songfa as key recommendations [3][5]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the theoretical upper limit for tanker freight rates is influenced by geopolitical risks and supply chain disruptions, with current freight rates reflecting a premium due to risk assessments rather than actual transaction prices [5]. - The report notes a significant increase in VLCC average freight rates, which rose by 89% week-on-week, reaching $390,970 per day, driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [5]. - The report highlights the resilience of the railway and highway freight volumes, with a notable increase in national railway freight volume by 9.77% and highway truck traffic by 229.69% [5]. Summary by Sections Shipping - The report indicates that the theoretical freight rate for oil tankers is approximately $93 per barrel, translating to a TCE of about $3.66 million per day, while the lower limit for shipowners is estimated between $40 to $87.5 per barrel [5]. - The report observes that the average freight rate for VLCCs has surged, particularly on the Middle East to China route, which jumped 108% to $480,557 per day [5]. Dry Bulk - The report states that the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has limited direct impacts on the dry bulk market, although high fuel prices are exerting pressure on TCE [5]. - The BDI recorded a decrease of 6.1% week-on-week, with Capesize rates dropping by 13.9% to $23,858 per day [5]. Air Transport - The report highlights that the global aircraft manufacturing chain is facing unprecedented challenges, with an aging fleet and supply constraints expected to continue [5]. - It suggests that airlines are poised for significant profit improvements as demand for international travel increases [5]. Express Delivery - The report anticipates that policies ensuring end-user rights will stabilize delivery fees, allowing for gradual recovery in pricing and profitability for leading companies in the sector [5]. - Companies such as ZTO Express and YTO Express are noted for their expanding market positions and profitability potential [5]. Rail and Road - The report indicates that freight volumes in both rail and highway sectors are showing resilience, with significant increases reported in recent weeks [5]. - It suggests that traditional high-dividend investment themes and potential market management catalysts are worth monitoring in the highway sector [5].

Group 1 - The article discusses the upcoming 2026 Spring Strategy Conference hosted by Guotai Junan, focusing on various sectors including real estate, technology transformation, and investment opportunities in metals and transportation [3][4]. - Key speakers include Li Lei, who will address the outlook for housing prices, and Xiao Xiaoping, who will provide insights on the Shenzhen real estate market [3]. - The conference will also cover topics such as high dividend stocks, the restructuring of the economy, and investment opportunities arising from the "anti-involution" trend in various industries [4]. Group 2 - The event is scheduled for March 24 at the Shangri-La Hotel in Futian District, Shenzhen, indicating a strategic focus on regional market dynamics [3]. - The agenda includes discussions on public utilities and the implications of policy document No. 136, which may influence investment strategies in the energy sector [4]. - The conference aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of market trends and investment opportunities across multiple sectors, reflecting Guotai Junan's commitment to delivering in-depth research and insights [3][4].