Summary of China Basic Materials Monitor - September 2025 Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Basic Materials** industry, highlighting the current demand and supply dynamics affecting pricing and margins in various sectors including construction, automotive, and metals [1][2]. Key Points Demand Trends - **End-user orderbooks** have shown a month-over-month (MoM) increase as of mid-September, consistent with seasonal patterns observed in previous years [1]. - **Aggregated demand** is driven by positive growth in sectors such as **automotive**, **battery production**, and **metal fabrication**, alongside mild seasonal increases in **construction** [1]. - Traditional sectors like **white goods**, **property**, and **machinery** are experiencing weaker demand [1]. Supply Disruptions - Ongoing **supply disruptions** are noted, particularly in: - **Lithium Lepidolite** production - A correction in excess **coal** production - Tightness in domestic **copper scrap** supply [1]. - The Chinese government has reaffirmed its policy on supply management (anti-involution) as a long-term strategy, which is expected to support overall commodity pricing and margins [1]. Pricing and Margin Outlook - Current demand for **cement** and **construction steel** is reported to be 1-6% lower year-over-year (YoY), while **copper** and **aluminium** demand is down 5-7% YoY. In contrast, **flat steel** demand has increased by 3% YoY [1]. - Recent weeks have seen improvements in margins/pricing for **aluminium** and **copper**, while **steel**, **coal**, and **lithium** prices have softened, with **cement** prices remaining stable [1]. Producer Feedback - A proprietary survey indicates that **52%** of respondents in downstream sectors reported an improvement in orderbook trends for August, while **32%** of basic materials producers noted similar improvements [2]. - Conversely, **9%** of downstream respondents and **16%** of basic materials producers indicated a decline in orderbook trends [2]. Additional Insights - The report includes detailed snapshots of downstream demand across various sectors, including infrastructure, property, traditional manufacturing, advanced manufacturing, and exports [7]. - Specific commodity analyses cover **steel**, **coal**, **cement**, **aluminium**, **copper**, and **lithium**, providing insights into their respective demand and pricing trends [7]. Conclusion - The China Basic Materials industry is currently experiencing a complex interplay of steady demand growth in certain sectors and ongoing supply disruptions, which collectively influence pricing and margin expectations. The outlook remains cautiously optimistic, supported by government policies aimed at stabilizing supply and pricing dynamics [1][2].

Core Viewpoint - Lithium Americas (NYSE: LAC) saw its stock price approximately double following reports that the Trump Administration is interested in acquiring an equity stake in the company [1]. Company Summary - The significant increase in Lithium Americas' stock price indicates strong market reaction to potential government involvement, which could enhance the company's financial stability and growth prospects [1]. Industry Summary - The interest from the Trump Administration in Lithium Americas highlights the growing importance of lithium in the energy sector, particularly in relation to electric vehicles and renewable energy technologies [1].

Group 1 - Lithium Americas (NYSE: LAC) saw its stock price approximately double on Wednesday following reports that the Trump Administration is interested in acquiring an equity stake in the company [1] Group 2 - The article does not provide additional relevant content regarding the industry or company beyond the stock price movement and the interest from the Trump Administration [1]

Lithium Americas Shares Surge 90% As Trump Requests Stakehttps://t.co/5QCK6yJI6J https://t.co/ZmNsYWaf0n ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Lithium Market - **Company**: Morgan Stanley Research Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Lithium Supply/Demand Balance**: The lithium market is expected to move closer to balance due to better-than-expected demand from Electric Vehicles (EVs) and Energy Storage Systems (ESS), despite a larger surplus anticipated in 2026 unless supply discipline is maintained [5][44] 2. **Price Stabilization**: Lithium and spodumene prices have stabilized, with spodumene rebounding from a low of $610 per ton and lithium carbonate bouncing off $7,400 per ton, indicating a potential floor for prices [41] 3. **Supply Discipline**: Historical reluctance among lithium producers to cut production in response to falling prices has led to elevated inventories. Recent disruptions from CATL and potential shutdowns of lepidolite mines in Yichun may further impact supply [42][44] 4. **Demand Trends**: NEV sales in China are projected to rise by 22% YoY in 2025, with Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV) increasing by 8% and Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV) by 40%. However, some cities have paused vehicle trade-in programs due to funding issues [43][44] 5. **Future Risks**: Upside risks include more supply cuts and increased EV incentives in China, while downside risks involve smaller BEV pack sizes and potential rapid price rebounds that could incentivize other supply sources [44] Additional Important Information 1. **Interactive Model**: Morgan Stanley has developed an interactive model allowing investors to adjust variables such as auto sales, EV penetration, and battery types to assess impacts on the lithium market in real-time [1][2] 2. **Quarterly Updates**: The lithium supply/demand model will be updated quarterly to reflect the latest market conditions and forecasts [1] 3. **Market Dynamics**: The model includes various scenarios for committed, brownfield, and greenfield projects, which will significantly influence future supply and demand dynamics [19][21] 4. **Battery Technology Trends**: There is a growing interest in the proportion of NMC and LFP batteries, with LFP gaining traction due to cost improvements and range enhancements [26][28] 5. **Global EV Sales Forecast**: The model allows for adjustments in global auto sales forecasts, which are crucial for predicting lithium demand [34][35] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, focusing on the lithium market's current state, future outlook, and the tools provided by Morgan Stanley for investors to analyze market dynamics.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Basic Materials in China - **Key Trends**: Weakness in property indicators and slowing momentum in Fixed Asset Investment (FAI) observed in August 2025. Commodity prices for steel, coal, and lithium have rallied due to production cuts or halts [2][7][19]. Core Insights - **Property Market Weakness**: - New property starts decreased by 5.1% month-over-month (MoM) and 19.8% year-over-year (YoY) in August. Real estate investment hit a new low, with expectations of marginal improvement in September due to easing in tier-1 cities [2][24]. - J.P. Morgan's Property Analyst suggests that policymakers may need to consider stronger actions as data worsens, indicating potential for more policy support [2][24]. - **FAI Trends**: - FAI growth rate slowed to 0.5% in the first eight months of 2025, down from 1.6% in the previous seven months. Real estate investment worsened to -12.9% YoY [7][24]. - Manufacturing and infrastructure FAI also slowed, indicating continued downward pressure on domestic demand for industrial metals [7]. - **Commodity Price Movements**: - Copper prices have broken the US$10,000 mark, leading to upward earnings revisions for copper-related companies. The preference order for commodities is copper/gold > aluminum > steel > coal > lithium [2]. - Coal prices are expected to remain range-bound at approximately Rmb650/ton for the second half of 2025 [2]. - **Steel Production**: - Crude steel output in August was 77 million tons, down 0.7% MoM and 2.9% YoY. A production cut of 20-50 million tons is anticipated [8][12]. - 60% of steel mills are currently profit-making, with operating rates for blast furnaces remaining high at 84% [8]. - **Aluminum Production**: - Aluminum production was stable at 3.8 million tons, with exports decreasing slightly. Inventory levels are considered healthy despite an increase [19][20]. - **Coal Production**: - Raw coal output increased to 391 million tons in August, up 2% MoM but down 3.2% YoY. A production halt at a coal mine in Shanxi has led to a rise in coking coal futures [15][24]. - **New Energy Vehicle (NEV) Production**: - NEV production increased by 22.7% YoY in August, indicating a recovery in the auto sector. However, oversupply issues continue to pressure lithium prices [21]. Additional Important Insights - **Market Sentiment**: The spokesperson from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) indicated that "more efforts are needed to achieve market stabilization," suggesting that further policy support may be forthcoming [2]. - **Valuation Comparisons**: A detailed valuation comparison of global diversified mining companies was provided, highlighting various metrics such as PE ratios and market capitalization [27][29]. Conclusion The conference call highlighted significant challenges in the Chinese basic materials sector, particularly in real estate and FAI, while also noting some resilience in commodity prices and production in specific areas like copper and NEVs. The potential for policy intervention remains a critical factor for market stabilization moving forward.

Company Overview - Albemarle is one of the world's largest lithium producers, primarily serving the battery market, especially for electric vehicles. The company is fully integrated, with upstream resources including salt brine deposits in Chile and the US, and hard rock mines in Australia, which are joint ventures. Albemarle operates lithium refining plants in Chile, the US, Australia, and China. Additionally, it is a global leader in bromine production and a major producer of oil refining catalysts [9]. Options Activity - Recent options trading data indicates a bullish sentiment among investors, with 55% of trades being bullish and 38% bearish. A total of 18 trades were detected, comprising 4 puts valued at $202,893 and 14 calls valued at $814,705 [1]. - The major market movers are focusing on a price range between $40.0 and $110.0 for Albemarle over the last three months, indicating significant interest within this band [2]. - An analysis of the last 30 days shows the evolution of volume and open interest for calls and puts, providing insights into liquidity and investor interest [3][4]. Market Sentiment - Current trading volume for Albemarle stands at 1,225,541, with the stock price at $82.25, reflecting a 1.63% increase. RSI readings suggest the stock may be approaching overbought conditions [14]. - Expert opinions on Albemarle show a consensus target price of $78.5, with a recent upgrade from UBS to Neutral and a revised price target of $89, while Baird maintains an Underperform rating with a target price of $68 [11][12].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Lithium Industry in China - **Key Companies Discussed**: Ganfeng Lithium, Tianqi Lithium Core Insights and Arguments - **Lithium Futures Decline**: Lithium futures prices fell as CATL prepared to restart mining operations at the Jianxiawo site, with a resumption date set for November 2025. Lithium stocks dropped by 3-11% on September 10, 2025, indicating a market reaction to the earlier-than-expected timeline [3][5][54] - **Supply Risks**: Concerns remain regarding supply risks for China's lepidolite mines. The mining license for Jianxiawo may only cover clay, not lithium, and an audit report for remaining mines is due by September 30, 2025. This uncertainty contributes to a cautious outlook on the lithium sector [3][5] - **Price Trends**: Lithium carbonate prices have decreased by 3% year-to-date, while companies like Tianqi and Ganfeng have seen stock price increases of 33-69% [3][5] - **Solid State Battery Development**: Eve Energy's announcement of its Longquan II all-solid-state battery base achieving production capacity of nearly 500,000 battery cells has positively influenced investor sentiment, particularly benefiting Ganfeng over Tianqi [3] - **Market Dynamics**: The recent speculation about production halts among lithium producers led to a temporary price rally, but the report suggests that many of these tailwinds could become headwinds, particularly with the resumption of production by halted lithium producers [3][5] Additional Important Information - **Stock Performance**: - Ganfeng Lithium's A shares increased by 17.5% over the past week, while Tianqi Lithium's A shares rose by 4.3% [5] - The A/H premium for Ganfeng increased by 8.2 percentage points, while Tianqi's A/H premium remained stable [5] - **Lithium Price Movements**: - Lithium carbonate prices are currently at CNY 73,300 per ton, down from CNY 74,800 a week ago, reflecting a 2% decrease [5] - The futures price for lithium carbonate is around CNY 70,720 per ton, indicating a decline of 1.6% [5] - **Inventory Levels**: Lithium inventory remains high at 140,000 tons, only slightly down from 142,000 tons in early August, suggesting ongoing supply pressures [3][5] Conclusion - The lithium industry in China is facing a complex landscape with potential supply disruptions, fluctuating prices, and evolving market dynamics driven by technological advancements in battery production. Investors are advised to remain cautious as the market adjusts to these developments [3][5]

Group 1 - The author has a background in private credit and commercial real estate (CRE) mezzanine financing, indicating expertise in financial analysis and investment strategies [1] - The author has collaborated with prominent CRE developers, suggesting a strong network and understanding of the real estate market [1] - The author is a fluent Mandarin speaker, which may provide advantages in conducting business in China and Asia [1] Group 2 - The article expresses the author's personal opinions and research, emphasizing that it is not influenced by external compensation [2] - There is a beneficial long position in the shares of ALB.PR.A, indicating a positive outlook on this investment [2] - The content is intended for general informational purposes and should not be considered as financial advice [3]

Group 1 - The author has a background in private credit and commercial real estate (CRE) mezzanine financing, indicating expertise in financial analysis and investment strategies [1] - The author has collaborated with prominent CRE developers, suggesting a strong network and experience in the real estate sector [1] - The author is a fluent Mandarin speaker, which may provide advantages in understanding Asian markets and investment opportunities [1] Group 2 - The article expresses the author's personal opinions and research, highlighting a long position in ALB.PR.A shares, indicating a bullish outlook on this investment [2] - The author emphasizes that the information is for general informational purposes and should not be considered financial advice, which reflects a cautious approach to investment recommendations [3] - The article notes that past performance does not guarantee future results, underscoring the inherent uncertainties in investment decisions [4]