Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on aluminum and lithium sectors while being less bullish on steel names, indicating a preference for aluminum and lithium investments [1][2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the need for steel supply reform, anticipates a near-term bottom for lithium prices, and expects potential corporate actions from aluminum companies in China [1]. - It highlights that aluminum and lithium stocks have performed well, while steel stocks have lagged behind, prompting a reassessment of investment strategies [1]. - The report ranks the sectors in the following order: aluminum > lithium > copper > steel > gold > battery > thermal coal > cement [1]. Summary by Sections Aluminum - The aluminum sector is viewed as undervalued relative to mid-term fundamentals, with expectations for a re-rating driven by a cap on smelting capacity and improved margins [2]. - Shareholder return policies from companies like Hongqiao and Chalco are generating investor interest, with Chalco initiating share buybacks [2]. Steel - The anticipated steel supply reform has been delayed, with internal communications between local governments and steel mills ongoing [6]. - Recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) shows a decline in pig iron output of approximately 3% year-over-year in May 2025, contrasting with a 4% increase reported by MySteel [6]. Lithium - The report suggests that lithium prices are nearing a short-term trough at Rmb60,000 per ton, with expectations of production cuts to stabilize the market [8]. - Investors are concerned about the potential restart of suspended supply if prices rebound to Rmb70,000 per ton, alongside ongoing capacity additions in the pipeline [8].

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Financial Performance & Strategy - Albemarle's FY2023 net sales reached $9.6 billion[8], with a net income of $1.6 billion[8] and adjusted EBITDA of $3.5 billion[8], representing a 37% adjusted EBITDA margin[8] - The company anticipates continued growth in 2024, projecting a 10-20% year-over-year increase in Energy Storage volumes[9] - Albemarle is implementing measures to reduce annualized operating costs by approximately $95 million[36], primarily in SG&A, and is re-phasing large projects to optimize cash flow[36] Business Segments - Energy Storage accounted for 74% of Albemarle's FY2023 net sales[8], while Specialties contributed 15%[8] and Ketjen 11%[8] - Energy Storage's adjusted EBITDA margin was projected to improve by ~500 bps at $15/kg LCE scenario[33] - Albemarle's Lithium Spodumene Operations have an average Li grade of 1.8% Li2O, a 50% advantage over the producer average of 1.2%[31] Market & Operations - Global EV sales are up +20% YTD, with China representing >60% of the global electric vehicle market[67, 68] - Albemarle expects a 15-20% CAGR in lithium demand between 2024 and 2030, reaching 3.3 million metric tons LCE by 2030[62] - The company's planned capital expenditures for 2024 include commissioning the Meishan, China lithium conversion facility and completing commissioning at trains 1 and 2 of the Kemerton, Australia lithium conversion facility[78] Sustainability - Albemarle is committed to growing its Energy Storage business in a scope 1 + 2 carbon-intensity neutral manner through 2030 (vs 2019)[55] - The company aims to reduce the intensity of freshwater usage by 25% by 2030 (vs 2019) in Chile and Jordan[55]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Aluminum Corporation of China (Chalco) is "Buy" with a target price of Rmb9.62 per share based on a 2.22x 2025E P/B [18] - The investment rating for Baoshan Iron & Steel is "Buy" with a target price of Rmb8.2 per share based on a 0.85x 2025E P/B [22] - The investment rating for Tianqi Lithium is "Hold" with a target price of HK$23.0 for H-shares and Rmb26.26 for A-shares [24][27] Core Insights - The report indicates cautious market expectations regarding demand recovery in the aluminum sector in China, with a near-term pecking order of steel > aluminum > lithium > copper > gold > battery > thermal coal > cement [1] - Total aluminum production in China for the week of June 12-18, 2025, was 845kt, flat week-over-week (WoW), and up 3% year-over-year (YoY) [2] - Total aluminum inventory in China stood at 722kt on June 19, 2025, reflecting a 1% increase WoW but a significant 38% decrease YoY [3] - Apparent aluminum consumption in China was 849kt during the same week, down 6% WoW but up 5.8% YoY for the year-to-date [4] Production Summary - China's total aluminum production year-to-date reached 20.9 million tonnes (mnt), representing a 3.2% increase YoY, while aluminum billet production was 8.4mnt, up 6.2% YoY [2] - Aluminum billet production for the week was 365kt, flat WoW, and up 9% YoY [2] Inventory Summary - The total inventory of aluminum ingots was 493kt, down 3% WoW and 40% YoY, while aluminum billet inventory was 229kt, up 9% WoW but down 30% YoY [3] - The inventory levels are lower than the same period in 2021-2024 on a lunar calendar basis [7] Consumption Summary - Apparent consumption of aluminum ingots was 885kt, down 3% WoW but up 1% YoY, while aluminum billet apparent consumption was 329kt, down 7% WoW but up 3% YoY [4] - Year-to-date apparent consumption of aluminum in China reached 21.6mnt, reflecting a 5.8% increase YoY [4]

Core Insights - Major oil companies Chevron and ExxonMobil are recognizing the decline of fossil fuels and are investing in lower-carbon energy sources [1] - Both companies are expanding into lithium production, essential for electric vehicle batteries, with Chevron following Exxon's lead in acquiring land in Arkansas [2][4] Group 1: Lithium Investments - Chevron has signed deals to acquire 125,000 net acres in Northeast Texas and Southwest Arkansas, targeting the lithium-rich Smackover Formation [4] - The company plans to utilize a direct lithium extraction (DLE) process, leveraging its existing subsurface and drilling capabilities despite lacking prior lithium production experience [5] - ExxonMobil has already entered the lithium sector by acquiring over 120,000 acres in Arkansas for approximately $100 million and aims to start commercial lithium production by 2027 [6] Group 2: Production Goals and Partnerships - ExxonMobil has set a goal to produce enough lithium by 2030 to supply the manufacturing needs of over 1 million electric vehicles annually [7] - The company has begun signing supply agreements, including a nonbinding deal with LG Chem for 100,000 metric tons of lithium carbonate [7] - Exxon is also exploring lithium investment opportunities in Chile in collaboration with SLB [8] Group 3: Broader Energy Strategy - Both Chevron and Exxon are maintaining significant investments in oil and gas while gradually increasing their focus on lower-carbon energy [9] - Exxon plans to invest $140 billion in major projects through 2030, aiming for an output of 5.4 million barrels of oil equivalent per day [9] - The companies are allocating substantial portions of their capital expenditures to lower-carbon energy, with Exxon targeting up to $30 billion and Chevron about 10% of its $15 billion annual budget [10] Group 4: Future Outlook - Chevron and Exxon are strategically positioning themselves to meet the global demand for lower-carbon energy sources, aiming to build profitable businesses that enhance shareholder value [11]

Group 1 - Moretus Research provides high-quality equity research focused on U.S. public markets, aiming to deliver clarity, conviction, and alpha for serious investors [1] - The research framework identifies companies with durable business models, mispriced cash flow potential, and intelligent capital allocation, emphasizing a structured and repeatable approach [1] - Valuation methods are based on sector-relevant multiples tailored to each company's business model and capital structure, prioritizing comparability, simplicity, and relevance [1] Group 2 - Research coverage focuses on underappreciated companies experiencing structural changes or temporary dislocations, where disciplined analysis can yield asymmetric returns [1] - Moretus Research aims to elevate the standard for independent investment research by providing professional-grade insights and actionable valuation [1]

Core Insights - Chevron Corporation's subsidiary, Chevron U.S.A. Inc., has acquired approximately 125,000 net acres in the Smackover Formation, marking a significant step towards establishing a domestic lithium business essential for the electrification era [1][9][10] - The acquisition includes assets from TerraVolta Resources and East Texas Natural Resources, providing Chevron with direct access to high-lithium-content brines in a rapidly growing domestic market [2][10] - This strategic move reflects Chevron's long-term commitment to energy diversification and securing critical mineral reserves vital for U.S. energy security [3][11] Strategic Acquisition - Chevron's acquisition targets include substantial acreage from TerraVolta Resources and ETNR, enhancing its competitive edge in the lithium market [2][10] - The Smackover Formation is recognized for its high lithium content and favorable geological properties, making it a cost-effective source for lithium extraction [4][5] Extraction Technology - Chevron plans to utilize Direct Lithium Extraction (DLE) technology, which allows for a more efficient and environmentally friendly lithium recovery process compared to traditional methods [6][7] - DLE technology minimizes land use and water consumption while significantly shortening production timelines, aligning with Chevron's sustainability goals [6][7] Domestic Supply Chain - The move into lithium supports a national agenda to strengthen the domestic supply of critical minerals, reducing reliance on imports from unstable regions [10][11] - By establishing a domestic lithium value chain, Chevron enhances national energy security and contributes to a self-sustaining energy ecosystem [11][12] New Energies Strategy - This acquisition is a cornerstone of Chevron's New Energies strategy, focusing on low-carbon technologies and critical minerals like lithium [12][13] - Chevron aims to transition from pilot operations to full-scale commercial production, leveraging its strengths in resource development and infrastructure scalability [13][17] Future Outlook - Chevron will assess and develop the lithium potential of the Smackover acreage, including resource assessment and pilot testing of DLE systems [16][17] - The company aims to establish a vertically integrated lithium value chain, from extraction to delivery of battery-grade lithium products [17][18] Energy Transition - Chevron's entry into the lithium market signifies its commitment to adapting to the changing energy landscape, focusing on clean energy solutions [15][20] - The strategic shift reflects an understanding of the rising demand for lithium in electric vehicles and energy storage systems, supporting global sustainability goals [15][20]

USA | Chemicals Equity Research June 12, 2025 Lithium Value Chain Survey: Soft Conditions Likely Spill Into Q3 Our survey of lithium converters (90% of sales in China) and battery material producers (62%) suggests a mixed picture: softness in prices accelerates into Q3; battery volumes are up YoY, in contrast to soft converter volumes and weak sales expectations. Battery producers appear skeptical of order books. Inventories are weak, with converters flagging the need for a restock. The debate shifts to whe ...

Investment Rating - The report reiterates a positive outlook on lithium prices, suggesting that the near-term trough has been reached with higher upside risks than downside risks [1][2]. Core Insights - Lithium prices have stabilized and slightly rebounded by 1% after a significant decline, with a quarter-to-date average selling price (ASP) down by 13% quarter-over-quarter [1]. - The report highlights that many lithium producers are currently operating at a loss, indicating potential offline maintenance or production suspension in the near future [1]. - Zimbabwe plans to ban the export of lithium concentrates starting in 2027, which is expected to positively impact long-term supply and demand dynamics by encouraging local processing [1]. Production and Inventory Summary - As of June 12, 2025, the ASP for lithium carbonate (Li2CO3) and lithium hydroxide (LiOH) is reported at Rmb60.7k/ton and Rmb65.7k/ton, respectively, showing slight increases from the previous week [2]. - China's Li2CO3 production increased by 4% week-over-week to 18,127 tons, with contributions from various sources: brine (+2%), lepidolite (+4%), spodumene (+5%), and recycled materials (-1%) [2]. - Total inventory of Li2CO3 reached 133,549 tons, reflecting a 1% increase week-over-week, with downstream players' inventory decreasing by 1% to 40,686 tons [2].

Group 1 - The author has a background in private credit and commercial real estate (CRE) mezzanine financing, indicating expertise in financial analysis and investment strategies [1] - The author has collaborated with prominent CRE developers, suggesting a strong network and industry knowledge that could influence investment decisions [1] Group 2 - The article does not provide specific investment recommendations or financial advice, emphasizing the author's personal opinions and research [2][3][4] - There is no indication of any current stock or derivative positions held by the author, which may suggest an unbiased perspective in the analysis presented [2]