Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a decline today, with all three major indices falling, particularly the ChiNext index which dropped over 1% [1] - At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose slightly by 0.02% to 3473 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.7% and the ChiNext index decreased by 1.21% [2][3] - The total trading volume for the day was 1.23 trillion yuan, a decrease of 227.4 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with over 3200 stocks rising [3] Sector Performance Power Sector - The power sector saw a surge, with multiple stocks hitting the daily limit, including Huayin Power and Shenzhen Nanshan Electric, among others [4] - Notable performers included Disen Co., which rose over 18%, and Nanshan Technology, which increased by over 14% [6][7] - The maximum power load in China reached 1.465 billion kilowatts last Friday, an increase of approximately 200 million kilowatts since the end of June, and nearly 150 million kilowatts higher than the same period last year [6] Cross-Border Payment Sector - The cross-border payment sector also performed well, with stocks like Zhongyi Technology and Huafeng Super Fiber hitting the daily limit [8][9] - The upcoming implementation of the stablecoin regulations in Hong Kong is expected to boost this sector [9] Real Estate Sector - Real estate stocks experienced significant gains, with companies like Yudai Development and Shahe Shares hitting the daily limit [10][11] Biopharmaceutical Sector - The biopharmaceutical sector faced a downturn, with stocks like Kexing Pharmaceutical dropping over 14% [15][16] Apple Concept Stocks - Apple-related stocks continued to decline, with East Mountain Precision and GoerTek both falling over 5% [17] Gaming Sector - The gaming sector also saw declines, with companies like Gigabit and Giant Network dropping over 3% [18] Investment Recommendations - Companies in upstream resource sectors (copper, aluminum, oil) and capital goods (engineering machinery, heavy trucks) are recommended due to rising overseas demand and domestic policy shifts [19] - Consumer sectors such as hospitality, tourism, and branded apparel are also highlighted for potential investment opportunities [19]

收评：创业板指低开低走跌1.21% 两市成交额缩量超2000亿 智通财经7月7日电，市场全天震荡调整，沪指尾盘翻红，创业板指领跌。沪深两市全天成交额1.21万亿，较上个交易日缩量2199亿。盘面上，市场热点较为 杂乱，个股涨多跌少，全市场超3200只个股上涨。从板块来看，电力、电网股逆势爆发，华银电力等10余股涨停。稳定币概念股再度活跃，青岛金王等涨 停。地产股展开反弹，渝开发涨停。下跌方面，PCB概念股展开调整，逸豪新材跌超5%。板块方面，电力、电网设备、稳定币、房地产等板块涨幅居前， 生物制品、PCB、CPO、创新药等板块跌幅居前。截至收盘，沪指涨0.02%，深成指跌0.7%，创业板指跌1.21%。 | 上证指数 | 深证成指 | 创业板指 | | --- | --- | --- | | -3473.13 | ·10435.51 | -2130.18 | | +0.81 +0.02% | -73.25 -0.70% of an experience and anywood and any and | -26.05 -1.216 I | 昨涨停今表现 3.48% 高开率 61% 获利率 61% 洲宁衣现 封 ...

1. Macro Data Overview - GDP in Q1 2025 grew at a constant - price quarterly - on - quarterly rate of 5.4%, the same as the previous quarter and slightly higher than the same period last year [1] - In June 2025, the Manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, up from 49.5% in the previous month and the same as the same period last year; the Non - manufacturing PMI: Business Activity was 50.5%, up from 50.3% in the previous month and the same as the same period last year [1] - In May 2025, various financial and economic indicators showed different trends, such as changes in social financing scale, M0, M1, M2, financial institution RMB loans, CPI, PPI, fixed - asset investment, retail sales of consumer goods, export and import values [1] 2. Commodity Investment Reference Comprehensive - The CSRC approved the registration of propylene futures and options on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange [2] - In June, the national futures market volume was 740 million lots, with a turnover of 52.79 trillion yuan, up 28.91% and 17.25% year - on - year respectively. From January to June, the cumulative volume was 40.76 billion lots, and the cumulative turnover was 339.73 trillion yuan, up 17.82% and 20.68% year - on - year respectively [2] - There were reports of the US resuming exports of EDA software, ethane, aircraft engines and other products to China. After the China - US economic and trade talks in London, both sides are implementing the consensus of the leaders' call on June 5th [2][14] - Experts believe that in June, China's economic growth momentum remained stable, with CPI expected to rise slightly year - on - year and PPI likely to remain at a low level [2][17] - In June, the China Commodity Price Index was 110.8 points, up 0.5% month - on - month, indicating a stable and improving commodity market [3] - US Treasury Secretary Besent said that the trade negotiations were at a stalemate, with busy days ahead. If no agreement was reached by August 1st, tariffs would return to the April level [3][21] Metals - Precious metals were the most active in the futures market in the past six months. Gold futures' turnover in the first half of 2025 exceeded that of the whole of last year, up 149% year - on - year. Gold options' trading volume soared from 28.64 billion yuan in the first half of last year to 101.787 billion yuan this year, up 252.64% year - on - year [5] - India re - classified the import of colloidal precious metals and their compounds from "free" to "restricted", causing disruptions in the electronics manufacturing supply chain [5] Coal, Coke, Steel and Minerals - In the first five months of 2025, China's steel industry was stable, with a 5.2% year - on - year increase in steel production. Industrial steel demand, especially in the automotive and home - appliance manufacturing sectors, increased significantly [6] - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year to improve industry governance and control coal and ore supply [6] - In late June, the price of coke dropped 4.36% month - on - month to 1,096.4 yuan/ton, hitting a record low; the price of rebar dropped 0.95% month - on - month to 3,080.7 yuan/ton, also hitting a record low [6] Energy and Chemicals - High - temperature weather in many parts of China led to a rapid increase in power consumption. On July 4th, the national maximum power load reached 1.465 billion kilowatts, up about 200 million kilowatts from the end of June and nearly 150 million kilowatts from the same period last year [6] - OPEC+ will increase production by 548,000 barrels per day next month, exceeding expectations, as it tries to regain market share during the summer [7] - Malaysia's national oil company will drill three oil wells in Suriname's offshore Block 52 [8] - Saudi Arabia raised the prices of its main crude grades for Asian buyers next month, showing confidence in the market [8] - Qatar set the shipping price of August marine crude oil at a premium of $1.40 per barrel over the Oman/Dubai average, and the price of land - based crude oil at a premium of $1.30 per barrel [8] - Saudi set the price of Arabian Light crude oil for the US in August at a premium of $3.90 per barrel over the Argus Sour Crude Index and for Northwest Europe at a premium of $4.65 per barrel over ICE Brent [8] - Goldman Sachs predicts that OPEC+ will further increase oil supply in September [9] Agricultural Products - As of now, the cumulative purchase of wheat in China has exceeded 50 million tons. The National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration expects the purchase of new - season summer grain to be about 100 million tons, with wheat accounting for over 85 million tons [10] - In the past month, the prices in the white - feather broiler industry chain have dropped significantly. At the beginning of July, the price of live chickens fell below 3 yuan for the second time this year, and the price of chicks dropped by more than half [10] - In late June, the price of live pigs rose 2.82% month - on - month to 14.6 yuan/kg [11] - In late June, the price of corn rose 1.33% month - on - month to 2,370.1 yuan/ton, hitting a new high since mid - July 2024 [12] 3. Financial News Compilation Open Market - This week, 652.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market. Last week, the central bank conducted 652.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 1375.3 billion yuan from the open market [13] - On July 4th, the central bank conducted 34 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate. With 525.9 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net withdrawal was 491.9 billion yuan [13] Key News - US President Trump said on July 4th that the US government would start sending letters to trade partners to set new unilateral tariff rates, which would likely take effect on August 1st [14] - The EU accepted price commitments from 34 Chinese enterprises in the anti - dumping case of imported brandy, and these enterprises will not be subject to anti - dumping duties if they meet the commitment conditions [14] - The technical part of the China - EU electric vehicle negotiations is almost completed, and China will impose anti - dumping duties on imported brandy from the EU starting July 5th for a period of 5 years [15] - Chinese Premier Li Qiang attended the 17th BRICS Leaders' Summit and proposed to establish a China - BRICS New Quality Productivity Research Center and a "Golden Heron" Excellence Scholarship [15] - Chinese Finance Minister Lan Fuan attended the 2025 BRICS Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors' Meeting, expressing China's willingness to deepen BRICS financial cooperation. The New Development Bank of BRICS approved Colombia and Uzbekistan as new members [16] - The Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development's research team called on local governments to use real - estate regulation policies autonomously to stabilize the real - estate market [16] - The market expects that new RMB loans and social financing in June will increase month - on - month [16] - Local governments are issuing new special bonds to pay off overdue accounts to enterprises. Qinghai plans to issue about 11.7 billion yuan of local government bonds in July, with 1.42 billion yuan for debt repayment [18] - Qilu Bank's convertible bonds were triggered for mandatory redemption [18] - Many local state - owned enterprises and financial institutions are taking measures to prevent and resolve debt risks, such as reforming financing platforms, reducing high - cost non - standard debts, etc. [18][19] - Goldman Sachs significantly lowered its forecast for US Treasury yields, expecting the 2 - year and 10 - year yields to drop to 3.45% and 4.20% by the end of the year respectively [20] - In the euro - zone bond market, the yield of French 5 - year Treasury bonds exceeded that of Italian bonds for the first time since 2005 [20] - Japan's International Cooperation Agency will issue "Africa・TICAD Bonds" in August, with a total issuance of about 23 billion yen [20] - There are various bond - related events, including debt restructuring, shareholding changes, bond redemptions, and credit rating changes [22][23] Bond Market Summary - In the bond market, the yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market were generally stable with a slight decline, and Treasury bond futures mostly rose. The money market was loose, and money prices continued to fall [24] - In the exchange - traded bond market, some bonds rose while others fell. The Wande Real - Estate Bond 30 Index rose 0.05%, and the Wande High - Yield Urban Investment Bond Index was flat [24] - The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.15% to 447.46 points, with a trading volume of 75.05 billion yuan. The Wande Convertible Bond Equal - Weighted Index fell 0.25% to 212.72 points [25] - On July 4th, most money - market interest rates declined, and Shibor short - term rates also fell across the board [26][27] - The weighted winning yields of 7 - year and 10 - year Treasury bonds issued by the Ministry of Finance were 1.5302% and 1.6188% respectively, and the winning rate of the 2 - year fixed - rate bond "25 Jinchu Qingfa 02" issued by the Import - Export Bank of China was 1.26% [27] - Inter - bank and bank - to - bank repurchase fixed - rate quotes mostly fell, and European bond yields showed mixed trends [27][28] Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB closed at 7.1652 against the US dollar at 16:30, down 41 basis points from the previous trading day. The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 7.1535, down 12 basis points from the previous trading day [29] - In late New York trading, the US dollar index fell 0.13% to 96.99, and most non - US currencies showed different trends [29] Research Report Highlights - Shenwan Hongyuan's fixed - income research team believes that the re - evaluation of banks is not over, and a dumbbell - shaped strategy of bank - like convertible bonds, small - cap growth convertible bonds, and low - price low - volatility convertible bonds is still effective [30][31] - Guosheng Securities' fixed - income research team believes that ultra - long - term credit bonds still have room for yield decline, but the operation requirements for trading desks are high [31] - CITIC Construction Investment's chief economist Huang Wentao believes that in the second half of the year, the external situation will ease, and Hong Kong stocks will become an important gateway for China's technological rise [31] - CITIC Securities believes that since the second quarter of 2025, the bond market has been in a stalemate, and medium - and long - term credit bonds have better cost - effectiveness [31] - CICC's fixed - income research team believes that the impact of the "Big and Beautiful" bill on the US deficit and economy this year is limited, and US Treasury yields may oscillate and decline [32] Today's Reminder - On July 7th, 182 bonds will be listed, 91 bonds will be issued, 77 bonds will require payment, and 349 bonds will pay principal and interest [33][34] 4. Stock Market News - Hong Kong's Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo - po said that the Hong Kong stock market is booming in 2025, with about 200 IPO applications received so far, double the number at the beginning of the year. The Hong Kong Stock Exchange is promoting the listing of more theme - based ETFs [35] - CITIC Securities' strategy team believes that the current market environment is similar to that at the end of 2014, and the rotation of non - ferrous metals, AI hardware, innovative drugs, games, and the military industry may be the main theme during the interim - report season [35] - Many star private equity funds are positive about the stock market in the second half of 2025. For example,淡水泉 is optimistic about the technology sector, and Chongyang Investment focuses on innovation and competitive industries [36] - Last week, the A - share market had a good start in July, and the market is expected to show an oscillating upward trend. The interim - report season is approaching, and investors are focusing on fundamental - based investment opportunities [36][37] - As of July 6th, 54 A - share listed companies have disclosed their semi - annual performance forecasts, mostly showing good profitability. Many companies have attracted institutional research after disclosing their forecasts [37] - Since the establishment of the stock repurchase, increase, and re - loan program, 688 listed companies have received bank support, with a total loan limit of over 135.86 billion yuan. A - share companies are increasing dividend payments [37] - Well - known fund managers have adjusted their positions in the medical and military sectors in the first half of the year [38]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On July 5th, the current-month contracts of the four major stock index futures showed mixed performance. IF rose 0.44%, IH rose 0.61%, IC fell 0.01%, and IM fell 0.29%. The total trading volume of stock index futures rebounded, indicating increased trading enthusiasm among investors. The trend intensities of IF and IH are 1, and those of IC and IM are also 1. There are important news including the resumption of product exports from the US to China and local measures for population development. The three major stock indices showed a pattern of rising and then falling [1][2][6] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Data Tracking - **IF Contracts**: The closing prices of IF2507, IF2508, IF2509, and IF2512 all rose, with increases of 0.44%, 0.40%, 0.46%, and 0.47% respectively. The trading volumes and open interests of these contracts also increased. For example, the trading volume of IF2509 increased by 28,804, and the open interest increased by 14,488 [1] - **IH Contracts**: The closing prices of IH2507, IH2508, IH2509, and IH2512 all rose, with increases of 0.61%, 0.58%, 0.62%, and 0.59% respectively. The trading volumes and open interests also increased. For instance, the trading volume of IH2509 increased by 19,867, and the open interest increased by 9,229 [1] - **IC Contracts**: The closing prices of IC2507, IC2508, IC2509, and IC2512 all fell slightly, with decreases of 0.01%, 0.01%, 0.08%, and 0.04% respectively. The trading volumes and open interests increased. For example, the trading volume of IC2509 increased by 13,772, and the open interest increased by 6,230 [1] - **IM Contracts**: The closing prices of IM2507, IM2508, IM2509, and IM2512 all fell, with decreases of 0.29%, 0.36%, 0.43%, and 0.47% respectively. The trading volumes and open interests increased. For instance, the trading volume of IM2509 increased by 55,982, and the open interest increased by 16,019 [1] 3.2 Changes in the Top 20 Member Positions of Stock Index Futures - For most contracts, the long and short positions of the top 20 members showed increases. For example, in the IF2509 contract, the long positions increased by 11,728, and the short positions increased by 11,807 [5] 3.3 Important Driving Factors - There are reports that the US has resumed exports of products such as EDA software, ethane, and aircraft engines to China. Relevant departments in multiple regions are about to introduce measures for population development. The three major stock indices had a performance of rising and then falling, with some sectors showing strong performance and others weakening [6]

Group 1 - The A-share market is experiencing a significant surge in mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity, with a 100% approval rate for M&A projects reviewed by the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges this year [1][3] - The underlying logic for this M&A enthusiasm includes leveraging advantageous financing channels for rapid development and addressing poor operational conditions, particularly during economic downturns [3][4] - Global trends show a 15% increase in M&A transaction value to $1.5 trillion in the first half of 2025, with large transactions over $1 billion rising by 19%, indicating a concentration of funds towards larger enterprises [3][4] Group 2 - Various policies have been introduced by the Chinese government to adapt to the changing global political and economic landscape, promoting high-quality economic development through M&A [4] - Examples of strong mergers include the restructuring of Haiguang Information with Zhongke Shuguang, and the merger of Guotai Junan with Haitong Securities, which aim to leverage capital strength during economic difficulties [4] - The number of M&A projects approved in the first half of this year has already reached 86.67% of the total from the previous year, with over 600 asset restructuring plans disclosed, a 1.4 times increase from the same period last year [6]

证券研究报告·固定收益·固收周报 固收周报 20250706 关于 25 年下半年转债策略的三点思考 2025 年 07 月 06 日 证券分析师 李勇 执业证书：S0600519040001 010-66573671 liyong@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 陈伯铭 执业证书：S0600523020002 chenbm@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《日本居民财富配置 30 年变迁—低 利率时代系列（六）》 2025-07-03 《利柏转债：工业模块化制造龙头》 2025-07-03 [Table_Summary] ◼ 上周（0630－0704）海外避险情绪整体回落，美债跌美股涨，其中科技 股由于盈利预期改善领涨，外围以伊冲突止战、美越贸易协议达成，越 南全方面对美国开放市场，存在一定示范效应，市场信心得到提振；同 时 6 月非农数据虽然不及预期，但市场增加年内联储降息押注， fedwatch 显示目前 7 月降息概率升至 27.4%，9 月降息概率高达 78%。 美债收益率整体仍在寻找趋势，继上上周波段下探后，上周受避险情绪 整体回落影响，转而上行，我们仍认为美债仍存在较强配置吸引力，期 限上 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent trade agreement between the U.S. and Vietnam is seen as a strategic move that undermines the interests of other countries, particularly China, amidst ongoing trade tensions initiated by the Trump administration [1][6]. Group 1: Trade Agreement Details - The agreement significantly reduces tariffs on Vietnamese goods exported to the U.S. from 46% to 20%, while imposing punitive tariffs of up to 40% on third-country goods transshipped through Vietnam [1][3]. - Vietnam has agreed to open its market to U.S. goods with zero tariffs across various sectors, including agricultural products and high-tech items, and has allowed U.S. customs to conduct inspections [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Implications for Vietnam - Vietnam's economy is heavily reliant on the U.S. market, with a trade surplus ranking third globally in 2024, trailing only China and Mexico [3]. - The agreement poses risks for Vietnam, as over 60% of its electronic components and 80% of its plastic materials are imported from China, making its manufacturing sector vulnerable to disruptions in trade relations with China [6][7]. Group 3: Reactions from China and Other Countries - China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs has expressed strong opposition to the agreement, emphasizing that negotiations should not harm third-party interests and warning of potential retaliatory measures [6][9]. - The agreement may encourage other ASEAN countries, such as Thailand and Malaysia, to follow suit, potentially impacting China's trade relations in the region [7][9]. Group 4: Broader Global Trade Dynamics - The U.S. stands to gain significantly from this agreement, enhancing its bargaining power in future trade negotiations and increasing customs revenue from tariffs [4][6]. - The agreement has also prompted India to accelerate its negotiations with the U.S. to prevent potential shifts in manufacturing away from India to other countries [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the trend of leading companies in the A-share market accelerating their IPOs in Hong Kong, particularly focusing on Lixun Precision, which is planning to issue H-shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to capitalize on the favorable market conditions and pursue a global strategy [3][8][32]. Group 1: Lixun Precision's IPO Plans - Lixun Precision announced its plans for an H-share IPO in Hong Kong, aiming to raise over $1 billion [7][8]. - The company is collaborating with major financial institutions like CICC, CITIC Securities, and Goldman Sachs for this IPO [7]. - The move is seen as a response to the saturated domestic market and an opportunity for global expansion [8][32]. Group 2: Market Context and Competitors - The Hong Kong stock market has shown strong performance this year, prompting other leading companies to consider listings [8]. - Another major player, Lens Technology, has successfully passed the listing hearing and is in the process of its IPO, aiming to raise approximately 4.3 billion RMB [9]. - Lens Technology's IPO proceeds will be allocated to product expansion, overseas business development, and enhancing manufacturing capabilities [9]. Group 3: Strategic Shifts and Diversification - Lixun Precision and Lens Technology are both seeking to reduce their reliance on Apple by diversifying their business operations [11][20]. - Lixun Precision has initiated a multi-product line strategy, targeting sectors such as automotive, communication, and medical [27][28]. - The company has made significant acquisitions to enhance its capabilities and reduce dependency on a single client, Apple [31]. Group 4: Leadership and Vision - Wang Laichun, the founder of Lixun Precision, aims to redefine the company's identity beyond being an "OEM" and is focused on providing comprehensive solutions [24][27]. - The company has set ambitious goals, including entering the top ten in Tier 1 automotive suppliers globally [27]. - Wang Laichun's wealth has significantly increased, reflecting the company's growth and potential success in the upcoming IPO [32].

Core Points - The Shenzhen Overseas Economic and Trade Delegation visited South Africa and Kenya from June 25 to July 3 to promote economic and cultural exchanges, resulting in the signing of four projects with an intended amount of $128 million [1][6]. Group 1: Economic Cooperation - The delegation organized economic exchange and city image promotion meetings in Johannesburg and Nairobi, attended by nearly 300 participants including local government officials and business representatives [1][3]. - The delegation facilitated resource and supply-demand matching between local enterprises and five participating entrepreneurs interested in entering the African market, focusing on logistics, new energy, and engineering construction [1][3]. Group 2: Business Support - During the visit, a business service matching meeting was held in South Africa, addressing challenges such as visas, security, logistics, and labor for 12 overseas Shenzhen enterprises [3][4]. - Shenzhen enterprises shared their innovation and entrepreneurship experiences, enhancing the understanding of Shenzhen's business environment [3][4]. Group 3: Cultural and Community Engagement - The delegation expanded the "Pengyou Circle" of overseas Shenzhen residents by deepening connections with local Chinese communities and promoting Shenzhen's image [6][8]. - Donations were made to support Chinese language education in Africa, with Shenzhen Langhua Group contributing 100,000 RMB for educational materials [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the upcoming IPO of Luxshare Precision Industry Co., Ltd. on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, marking a significant milestone for the company and its founder, Wang Laichun, who has transformed the company from a small factory to a major player in the electronics industry [1][4][7]. Company Overview - Luxshare Precision, with a market capitalization exceeding 250 billion yuan, is preparing for a dual listing in A-shares and H-shares, indicating its ambition for broader market reach [1][7]. - Wang Laichun, the founder, started her career as a factory worker and later established Luxshare Precision in 2004, focusing on independent product development and high-end manufacturing [4][5]. Business Expansion - The company has diversified its operations across three main sectors: consumer electronics, communications and data centers, and automotive, creating a multi-faceted product line [9]. - For the fiscal year 2024, Luxshare Precision reported revenues of 268.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.91%, with net profits reaching 13.37 billion yuan, up 22.03% [9]. Globalization Strategy - Luxshare Precision's international sales accounted for 87.60% of total revenue in 2024, reflecting its expanding global footprint with manufacturing bases in multiple countries [9]. - The recent acquisition of German automotive parts supplier Leoni AG for approximately 4 billion yuan is a strategic move to enhance its automotive business and global capacity [10][12]. Market Context - The Hong Kong IPO market has seen a resurgence, with over 40 companies successfully listing in the first half of the year, a 43% increase from the previous year [14]. - The article notes that the upcoming IPOs, including Luxshare Precision, are part of a broader trend of companies seeking to capitalize on the revitalized Hong Kong market, which is experiencing a significant influx of capital and investor interest [15][16].