新华财经天津9月28日电（记者 李亭）记者从天津国际贸易与航运服务中心获悉，2025年第39周（9月22日—26日），中国北方内外贸海运价格的风向标 ——天津航运指数快速下跌后企稳，最终收于943.02点，相比9月19日（第38周最后一个发布日）累计下跌10.83点，累计跌幅1.14%。 北方国际干散货运价指数（TBI）窄幅震荡。9月22日至24日（周一至周三），煤炭及粮食市场运价持续小幅下跌后企稳，金属矿石市场运价震荡走低后小 幅反弹，带动TBI最终收于1128.47点，相比9月19日累计下跌3.50点，累计跌幅为0.31%。 沿海集装箱运价指数（TDI）明显上涨。其中，出港运价指数本周保持平稳。进港运价指数止跌反弹，累计上涨5.04%，带动TDI收于935.51点，相比9月19 日累计上涨21.01点，累计涨幅为2.30%。 天津航运指数由天津国际贸易与航运服务中心发布，发布时间为每个工作日，指数样本范围覆盖27条连接天津港、青岛港、曹妃甸港与世界港口的国际航 线，也包括天津港和中国主要港口的内贸海运航线。该指数以2010年7月16日为基期，基期指数为1000点。 编辑：郭洲洋 天津国际贸易与航运服务中心 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - High - frequency economic data focuses: production is steadily rising, steel production is relatively stable, asphalt operating rate reaches the highest in the past two years, and the fiscal expenditure progress may accelerate; the real - estate market shows marginal improvement with the commercial housing transaction area rising for two consecutive weeks; overall prices are rising, with significant increases in crude oil and copper prices, slight decreases in coking coal and rebar of the black series, and agricultural product prices rising again; domestic and foreign freight rate indices show different trends, with BDI rising steadily and SCFI declining rapidly; affected by extreme weather such as typhoons, the number of executed flights decreases, with a large decline in the Guangdong - Hong Kong - Macao region. Short - term focus is on the implementation of anti - involution and incremental policies, the recovery of the real - estate market, and the impact of overseas policies [2][34]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Production: Steel production rises steadily, and asphalt operating rate hits a two - year high - Steel: In the week of September 26, the coke oven capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.04 pct, the blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.47 pct, and the rebar output increased by 0.01 tons. The inventory decreased by 0.66 tons [10]. - Petroleum asphalt: In the week of September 24, the domestic petroleum asphalt plant operating rate was 40.1%, an increase of 5.7 pct from the previous week, reaching the highest since October 2023 [10]. - Chemical industry: On September 25, the domestic chemical PX operating rate increased by 0.73 pct from the previous week, while the PTA operating rate decreased by 1.64 pct [10]. - Automobile tires: In the week of September 25, the all - steel tire operating rate increased by 0.06 pct, and the semi - steel tire operating rate decreased by 0.08 pct [11]. Demand: Commercial housing transactions improve marginally, and SCFI declines rapidly - Real estate: In the week of September 21, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 22.79 million square meters; the inventory - to - sales ratio of commercial housing in 10 large cities increased; the land supply area in 100 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 38.41 million square meters; the premium rate of residential land transactions in 100 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 1.43 pct [16]. - Movie box office: In the week of September 21, the total national movie box office revenue increased by 1.098 billion yuan [16]. - Automobiles: In the week of September 21, the average daily retail sales of automobile manufacturers increased by 0.43 million vehicles, and the average daily wholesale sales increased by 0.96 million vehicles [20]. - Shipping index: In the week of September 26, SCFI decreased by 6.98%, CCFI decreased by 2.93%, and BDI increased by 2.54% [22]. Prices: Crude oil and copper prices rise significantly, and agricultural product prices rise again - Energy: On September 26, the Brent crude oil price rose by 5.17% to $70.13 per barrel, and the coking coal futures price decreased by 0.12% to 1,214.5 yuan per ton [24]. - Metals: On September 26, the changes in LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices were +2.09%, -1.01%, and -0.41% respectively, and the domestic rebar futures price decreased by 0.60% [25]. - Agricultural products: On September 26, the agricultural product wholesale price 200 index rose by 0.93%. Among major agricultural products, the prices of pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits changed by -0.31%, +1.44%, +2.01%, and +1.61% respectively compared with the previous week [27]. Logistics: The subway passenger volume increases, and the number of executed flights decreases - Subway passenger volume: On September 25, the seven - day moving average of Beijing's subway passenger volume increased by 203,500 person - times, and that of Shanghai increased by 285,700 person - times [30]. - Executed flights: On September 25, the seven - day moving average of domestic (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) executed flights decreased by 521.43 flights, domestic (Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) decreased by 58.43 flights, and international flights decreased by 32.57 flights [32]. - Urban traffic: On September 26, the seven - day moving average of the peak congestion index in first - tier cities decreased by 0.03 [32]. Summary: Asphalt production speeds up, and crude oil and copper prices rise - The high - frequency economic data focuses are consistent with the core viewpoints, emphasizing short - term attention to policy implementation, real - estate market recovery, and overseas policy impacts [34].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the transportation industry, highlighting opportunities in undervalued assets with a focus on high dividend yields [3]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the recovery in the shipping sector, the attractiveness of infrastructure assets with dividend yields above 5%, and the positive outlook for the aviation industry in 2025-2026 [1][17][22]. - It also notes the potential for valuation recovery in the express delivery sector due to easing price competition [20]. Shipping Sector Summary - The shipping industry is experiencing a mixed performance, with container shipping rates declining due to reduced cargo volumes ahead of the National Day holiday. However, shipowners expect price stabilization in late October [10][17]. - Oil tanker rates remain high but are experiencing slight fluctuations, with VLCC rates at $89,000/day, down 6% from the previous week [13][47]. - The dry bulk market shows signs of recovery, with the BDI index rising by 2.5% to 2259 points [16][43]. Infrastructure Sector Summary - The infrastructure sector is highlighted for its stability, with major highways showing a dividend yield of over 5%, making them attractive for investment [18][19]. - Recent data indicates a slight increase in truck traffic and stable growth in rail freight, with national rail cargo volume increasing by 0.2% week-on-week [18][50]. Express Delivery Sector Summary - The express delivery industry is projected to maintain strong growth, with a 12.3% year-on-year increase in business volume in August 2025 [20][60]. - The report notes a shift towards price stabilization due to "anti-involution" policies, which are expected to improve industry valuations [20]. Aviation Sector Summary - The aviation industry is experiencing a slight decline in passenger volume due to adverse weather conditions, but ticket prices and load factors remain strong, with domestic ticket prices up 13.2% year-on-year [22][21]. - The report highlights the potential for recovery in the aviation sector in Q4, driven by low base effects and increased travel demand [22].

Group 1 - Major shipping companies are adjusting vessel deployments to avoid new port fees imposed by the U.S. on ships built or operated by Chinese entities, effective from October 14 [1] - Despite the U.S. port fees, global shipping companies continue to place commercial vessel orders with Chinese shipyards, with Chinese shipyards accounting for 53% of global ship orders by tonnage in the first eight months of 2025 [1][2] - Companies like COSCO and CMA CGM are preparing for the new regulations, indicating a willingness to adapt their operations and maintain competitive pricing despite potential challenges [1] Group 2 - The significant technological gap in shipbuilding between the U.S. and China leads many companies to prefer Chinese-built vessels over U.S. options, with major shipping lines withdrawing Chinese-related vessels from U.S. trade routes [2] - The U.S. shipbuilding industry has seen a drastic decline, with fewer than 10 commercial ships built last year compared to over 1,000 by Chinese shipyards [2] - The U.S. initiative to impose trade barriers may inadvertently accelerate changes in the global shipping and shipbuilding landscape, reinforcing China's central role in the global maritime network [2]

据《2024年交通运输行业发展统计公报》的统计数据，截至2024年末，全国拥有水上运输船舶11.02万 艘，全年完成营业性货运量98.11亿吨，比上年增长4.7%。截至2024年末全国内河航道通航里程12.87万 公里，比上年末增加528公里。2024年末全国港口生产用码头泊位22219个，比上年末增加196个。 船舶发动机在运行过程中，由于燃烧燃料会产生大量的废气，排气中含有一氧化碳（CO）、碳氢化合 物（HC）、氮氧化合物（NOx）、二氧化硫（SO₂）、颗粒物（PM）等排气污染物，这些污染物对环 境和人体健康都构成严重威胁。 新国际对航运市场有怎样的影响？ 生态环境部将出台船舶排气烟度限值及测量方法新规，以加强在用船舶污染物排放控制和管理。 第一财经记者从生态环境部了解到，国家生态环境标准《船舶排气烟度限值及测量方法（征求意见 稿）》已开始公开征求意见，有望近期出台。该标准承担单位为中国船级社，参加单位为中国环境科学 研究院、交通运输部天津水运工程科学研究院、上海市环境科学研究院等。该标准适用于在中国政府所 管辖水域航行或停泊的船舶，针对船舶运营过程中，柴油机维护不当，船、机、桨匹配不当导致的黑烟 排放。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the shipping and shipbuilding sectors, recommending specific companies such as China Merchants Energy Shipping and China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation [4][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights a stabilization in second-hand ship prices, with VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) prices increasing by $1 million to $88 million and bulk carrier prices rising by $3.5 million to $50 million. The shipping sector is expected to recover, with a focus on companies like China Merchants Energy Shipping and China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation [4]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of VLCC freight rates, which have shown a 9% decline week-on-week but remain strong at around $81,884 per day. The demand for crude oil is expected to remain robust, supported by China's refinery operations and OPEC's production adjustments [4]. - The report notes that the logistics sector is entering a new phase of competition, with a focus on price stability and potential mergers and acquisitions in the express delivery industry. Companies like Shentong Express and YTO Express are highlighted for their competitive advantages [4][5]. Summary by Sections Shipping Sector - Second-hand ship prices have stabilized, with VLCC prices up by $1 million to $88 million and bulk carrier prices up by $3.5 million to $50 million. The shipping sector is expected to recover, with recommendations for China Merchants Energy Shipping and China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation [4]. - VLCC freight rates have shown resilience, currently at $81,884 per day, despite a 9% week-on-week decline. The demand for crude oil is expected to remain strong due to refinery operations in China and OPEC's production adjustments [4]. Logistics Sector - The express delivery industry is entering a new phase of competition, focusing on price stability and potential mergers and acquisitions. Companies like Shentong Express and YTO Express are highlighted for their competitive advantages [4][5]. Transportation Sector - The transportation index has decreased by 2.03%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.10 percentage points. The cross-border logistics sector showed the highest increase of 0.21%, while the road freight sector experienced the largest decline of 6.94% [5].

Report Information - Report Date: September 27, 2025 [1] - Report Title: High - frequency Economic Weekly (2025.9.21 - 2025.9.27) [3] - Analysts: Huang Weiping, Luan Qiang [1] - Research Support: Wang Zheyi [1] Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View The report shows that personnel flow has declined while demand has improved month - on - month. Industrial production is generally stable, personnel and freight flows have changed, consumption shows a mixed picture, investment in construction and the real - estate market has improved, exports have seen some fluctuations, and there have been some important policies and events during the period [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Big - class Assets - This week, bond indices generally declined. The China Bond 7 - 10 - year China Development Bank Bond Index fell the most, with a weekly decline of 0.19%. - Most stock indices rose. The Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index rose the most, with a weekly increase of 6.47%. - Commodities showed mixed performance. The Nanhua Precious Metals Index rose the most, with a gain of 4.48%, while the Nanhua Black Index fell the most, with a decline of 1.95%. - Most foreign currencies depreciated against the RMB. The Japanese yen had the largest decline, with a weekly decline of 0.95%, and the US dollar appreciated against the RMB, with a weekly increase of 0.31% [3] 2. Industrial Production - Production is marginally stable. From the upstream, the weekly coal consumption in the national power plant sample area decreased by 1.27% month - on - month, the weekly operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants increased by 5.70 pcts to 40.10%, the weekly blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.47 pcts to 84.47%, and the weekly crude steel output decreased by 0.67%. - In the real - estate chain, the weekly operating rate of rebar decreased by 2.31 pcts to 40.65%, the operating rate of float glass remained flat at 76.31% compared with last week, and the mill operation rate remained flat at 38.55% compared with last week. - In the consumer goods chain, the operating rate of polyester filament remained flat at 91.54% compared with last week, the PTA operating rate decreased by 0.81 pcts to 76.48%, and the methanol operating rate increased by 0.12 pcts to 79.51%. - In the automotive chain, the operating rate of automobile semi - steel tires decreased by 0.08 pcts to 73.58%, and the operating rate of automobile all - steel tires increased by 0.06 pcts to 65.72% [3] 3. People and Goods Flow - Personnel flow has significantly declined. The 7 - day moving average (7DMA) of the national migration scale index decreased by 7.21% week - on - week. The 7DMA of domestic flight operations decreased by 2.93% week - on - week, and the 7DMA of international flight operations decreased by 1.01% week - on - week. The passenger volume in Beijing and Shanghai increased, while the subway passenger volume in Guangzhou and Shenzhen decreased. - Freight prices decreased slightly. The 4 - week moving average (4WMA) of the road logistics freight rate index decreased by 0.04% week - on - week, and the total volume was higher than the same period in previous years [3] 4. Consumption - Automobile wholesale and retail sales increased year - on - year. In the previous period, the year - on - year growth rates of passenger car market wholesale and retail sales were 6.00% and 9.00% respectively, and both the 4WMA of the wholesale year - on - year growth rate and the 4WMA of the retail year - on - year growth rate increased. - The film box office and the number of moviegoers decreased. The weekly film box office decreased by 55% week - on - week, and the 7DMA of the number of moviegoers decreased by 55% week - on - week. - Agricultural product prices showed a mixed performance. The weekly price of pork decreased by 0.31%, while the weekly price of vegetables increased by 4.23% [3] 5. Investment - Construction showed good performance. The weekly cement inventory - to - capacity ratio increased by 0.4 pcts, the weekly cement price index increased by 2.97%, and the weekly cement shipment rate increased by 0.4 pcts. The rebar inventory decreased by 2.8% week - on - week, the proportion of profitable steel mills nationwide decreased by 0.9 pcts week - on - week, and the apparent demand for rebar increased by 5.0% week - on - week. - The real - estate market improved. The 7DMA of the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities increased by 21.2% week - on - week. The transaction areas of first - tier, second - tier, and third - tier cities all increased. The 7DMA of the second - hand housing transaction area in 16 cities increased by 1.6% week - on - week, and the national second - hand housing listing price index decreased by 0.1% week - on - week. The land transaction area in 100 cities increased, and the land transaction premium rate decreased week - on - week [3] 6. Exports - Port throughput increased slightly. The weekly port cargo throughput increased by 0.1%, and the weekly container throughput increased by 0.2%. - Most shipping indices declined. The BDI index increased by 2.54% week - on - week, while the SCFI index and the CCFI index decreased by 6.98% and 2.93% respectively week - on - week [3] 7. Important Policies/Events - On September 22, the LPR quotation remained unchanged. - On September 22, the State Council Information Office held a press conference to introduce the development of the financial industry during the 14th Five - Year Plan period, without involving short - term policy adjustments. - On September 24, the central bank announced an operation of 600 billion MLF on September 25. - On September 26, the central bank's third - quarter monetary policy meeting continued to emphasize a "moderately loose" monetary policy [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall industrial production is stable, with some indicators showing upward trends and others showing downward trends. Personnel flow has significantly declined, and freight prices have slightly decreased. Automobile sales have increased year-on-year, and price performance is differentiated. Construction is performing well, and the commercial housing market has improved. Port throughput has increased, while most shipping indices have declined. Bond indices have generally fallen, most stock indices have risen, commodities have shown mixed performance, and most foreign currencies have depreciated [1]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Large - scale Assets - This week, bond indices generally declined, most stock indices rose, commodities showed mixed performance, and most foreign currencies depreciated. The China Bond 7 - 10 - year China Development Bank Bond Index fell the most, with a weekly decline of 0.19%. The Sci - tech Innovation 50 Index rose the most, with a weekly increase of 6.47%. The Nanhua Precious Metals Index rose the most among commodities, with a gain of 4.48%, while the Nanhua Black Index fell the most, with a decline of 1.95%. Most foreign currencies depreciated against the RMB, with the Japanese yen having the largest decline of 0.95%, and the US dollar appreciated against the RMB, with a weekly increase of 0.31% [1][6]. 2. Industrial Production - Production is marginally stable. From the upstream perspective, the weekly coal consumption in the national power plant sample area decreased by 1.27% week - on - week, the operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants increased by 5.70 pcts to 40.10% week - on - week, the blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.47 pcts to 84.47% week - on - week, and the crude steel output decreased by 0.67% week - on - week. In the real estate chain, the rebar operating rate decreased by 2.31 pcts to 40.65% week - on - week, the float glass operating rate remained flat at 76.31% compared with last week, and the mill operating rate remained flat at 38.55% compared with last week. In the general consumer goods chain, the polyester filament operating rate remained flat at 91.54% compared with last week, the PTA operating rate decreased by 0.81 pcts to 76.48% week - on - week, and the methanol operating rate increased by 0.12 pcts to 79.51% week - on - week. In the automotive chain, the operating rate of automobile semi - steel tires decreased by 0.08 pcts to 73.58% week - on - week, and the operating rate of automobile all - steel tires increased by 0.06 pcts to 65.72% week - on - week [1][9]. 3. People and Goods Flow - Personnel flow has significantly declined, and freight prices have slightly decreased. The 7 - day moving average (7DMA) of the national migration scale index decreased by 7.21% week - on - week. The 7DMA of the number of domestic flights decreased by 2.93% week - on - week, and the 7DMA of the number of international flights decreased by 1.01% week - on - week. The passenger volumes in Beijing and Shanghai increased, while the subway passenger volumes in Guangzhou and Shenzhen decreased. The 4 - week moving average (4WMA) of the road logistics freight rate index decreased by 0.04% week - on - week, and the total volume was higher than the same period in previous years [1][32]. 4. Consumption - Automobile sales have increased year - on - year, and price performance is differentiated. Both the year - on - year wholesale and retail sales of automobiles increased. In the previous period, the year - on - year sales of passenger cars in the wholesale and retail markets increased by 6.00% and 9.00% respectively compared with last year, and both the 4WMA of the year - on - year wholesale growth rate and the 4WMA of the year - on - year retail growth rate increased. The weekly box office of movies decreased by 55% week - on - week, and the 7DMA of the number of moviegoers decreased by 55% week - on - week. Agricultural product prices showed differentiation, with the pork price decreasing by 0.31% week - on - week and the vegetable price increasing by 4.23% week - on - week [1][46]. 5. Investment - Construction is performing well, and the commercial housing market has improved. The cement inventory - to - capacity ratio increased by 0.4 pcts week - on - week, the cement price index increased by 2.97% week - on - week, and the cement shipment rate increased by 0.4 pcts week - on - week. The rebar inventory decreased by 2.8% week - on - week, the proportion of profitable steel mills nationwide decreased by 0.9 pcts week - on - week, and the apparent demand for rebar increased by 5.0% week - on - week. Overall, the terminal demand for construction is performing well. The 7DMA of the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 21.2% week - on - week. By city tier, the commercial housing transaction areas in first - tier, second - tier, and third - tier cities all increased. The 7DMA of the second - hand housing transaction area in 16 cities increased by 1.6% week - on - week, and the national second - hand housing listing price index decreased by 0.1% week - on - week. The land transaction area in 100 cities increased, and the land transaction premium rate decreased week - on - week [1][55]. 6. Export - Port throughput has increased slightly, and most shipping indices have declined. The weekly port cargo throughput increased by 0.1% week - on - week, and the container throughput increased by 0.2% week - on - week. The BDI index increased by 2.54% week - on - week, while the SCFI index and CCFI index decreased by 6.98% and 2.93% respectively week - on - week [1][73].

Core Viewpoint - The company is implementing a comprehensive safety assurance system to ensure safe travel for passengers during the upcoming National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, focusing on organizational structure, vessel management, and port services [1] Group 1: Safety Management - The company has established a two-tier management system consisting of a "Safety Supervision Group + Assurance Group" to enforce responsibility and eliminate risks through a closed-loop management approach [3] - A pre-holiday safety inspection plan has been developed, focusing on critical areas such as vessel navigation logs, personnel duty, and hazardous materials checks, with a 100% rectification rate for equipment maintenance and operational issues [3] Group 2: Port Control - The company adopts a "zero tolerance" approach to safety checks, emphasizing the inspection of fire safety equipment and electrical wiring, with a 24-hour leadership presence [4] - Security checks are strictly enforced with a 100% inspection rate for all packages and liquids, utilizing both manual and equipment-based methods [4] - In response to adverse weather conditions, the company collaborates with public security and fire departments for joint prevention and control, conducting regular patrols and emergency drills [4] Group 3: Vessel Management - During the holiday period, the company will implement a specialized inspection and rectification plan for vessels, ensuring that each vessel has a tailored corrective action plan with designated responsibilities and deadlines [5] - A "dual lookout" system is in place for vessel navigation, requiring crew members to record lookout conditions every 15 minutes and calibrate lookout equipment hourly [5] - The company maintains a 100% coverage rate for the maintenance of key equipment, with daily inspections and quarterly comprehensive checks, reinforcing safety measures for passenger travel [5]

Group 1 - The total passenger flow in and out of Hainan during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival is expected to exceed 1.8425 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.28% [2] - The peak passenger flow is anticipated to occur at the beginning and end of the holiday, specifically on October 1, 2 for inbound traffic and October 7, 8 for outbound traffic [2] - The transportation plan includes a comprehensive strategy involving land, sea, and air to ensure smooth travel for passengers [2][3] Group 2 - Hainan plans to deploy 54 passenger and roll-on/roll-off ships, with daily departures of 280 for specific routes, and 32 train services to meet peak demand [3] - The company aims to enhance the transportation of new energy vehicles by utilizing two flat-top barges and scheduling at least 30 dedicated trips daily during peak periods [3] - The aviation sector is coordinating with airlines to increase flight availability, with a planned total of 7,571 flight departures from island airports, reflecting a 5.1% increase in daily flights [3][4] Group 3 - The railway company plans to operate 62 pairs of trains on the circular island high-speed rail, along with additional services on conventional and suburban lines to maximize passenger capacity [4] - A total of 4,788 vehicles will be deployed for road transport, providing 155,000 passenger seats to meet intercity travel demands, including 2,766 tourist buses and 2,022 regular buses [4]