Investment Rating - The investment rating for the consumer goods industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The policy to boost domestic demand is strong, and quality companies are showing signs of recovery, suggesting an active investment approach [3] Summary by Sections Beer Industry - The beer sector is witnessing a stabilization in demand, with leading companies starting to clear inventory risks and actively exploring new channels [12] - The first quarter of 2025 shows a slight improvement in restaurant consumption, with beer sales expected to grow due to low inventory levels and seasonal demand [9][12] - Investment recommendations include focusing on quality beer leaders such as China Resources Beer, Qingdao Beer, and Yanjing Beer, with an emphasis on the upcoming peak season for inventory replenishment [14][17] Snack Industry - The snack sector is experiencing varied sales performance, with a notable growth in konjac-based products, indicating a shift towards high-value offerings [21][22] - Companies are enhancing product quality and competitive pricing to adapt to the current consumer trend towards value [22] - Recommended stocks include Wei Long and Yan Jin Pu Zi, which are expected to maintain strong growth due to their market positioning and product offerings [29] Dairy and Beverage Industry - The dairy sector is expected to see a supply-demand turning point by the end of 2025, driven by policy support and market adjustments [32][41] - Beverage companies, particularly those focusing on functional drinks, are projected to maintain high growth rates, with East Peak Beverage being highlighted for its strong market position and growth potential [45][46] - Investment focus should be on companies that can leverage the recovery in consumer demand and improve operational efficiency [41][45] Restaurant Supply Chain - The restaurant supply chain is showing signs of recovery, with a stabilization in demand and a competitive landscape pushing for efficiency improvements [56] - The first quarter of 2025 is expected to focus on inventory reduction, with profitability likely to improve as the market stabilizes [57] - The recommendation is to monitor the recovery in restaurant demand and the associated supply chain dynamics [50][56]

Group 1: Hong Kong Stock Market - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a decline, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 23,426.6 points, down 1.11% for the week [1] - The Hang Seng Technology Index fell by 2.36%, while the National Enterprises Index decreased by 1.55% [1] - Notable declines in technology stocks included Xiaomi Group down 6.67%, Meituan down 4.5%, and Tencent Holdings down 0.4% [1] - Economist Hong Hao indicated that the market is at a critical resistance level, and further increases depend on the realization of expectations such as profit growth in tech companies and new economic policies [1] Group 2: Pop Mart Financial Performance - Pop Mart reported a revenue of 13.04 billion RMB for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 106.9%, with adjusted net profit reaching 3.4 billion RMB, up 185.9% [2] - Domestic revenue was 7.97 billion RMB, growing by 52.3%, while overseas revenue reached 5.07 billion RMB, a significant increase of 375.2% [2] - The stock price of Pop Mart rose over 9% to 153.70 HKD, with a market capitalization of 206.41 billion HKD [2] - The Southeast Asia market generated 2.4 billion RMB, accounting for 47.4% of overseas revenue, with a staggering growth of 619.1% [2] Group 3: Mengniu Dairy Financial Performance - Mengniu Dairy reported a revenue of 88.6748 billion RMB for 2024, a decline of 10.1%, with a net profit of only 104.5 million RMB, down 97.8% [3] - In the second half of 2024, Mengniu's revenue was 44 billion RMB, down 7.4%, with a net loss of 2.34 billion RMB [3] - The dairy industry is facing challenges, with overall sales down 2.7%, and Mengniu's specific issues include significant impairment losses related to its acquisitions [3][4] Group 4: CK Hutchison Holdings - CK Hutchison Holdings has postponed its plan to sell overseas port assets, with no agreements expected to be signed this week [5][6] - The company had previously reached a principle agreement to sell 80% of its port assets to a consortium led by BlackRock, covering 43 overseas ports in 23 countries [6][7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The performance of the food and beverage index showed a 0.4% increase from March 24 to March 28, ranking third among primary sub-industries, outperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 0.4 percentage points. The leading sub-industries included meat products (+2.9%), dairy products (+2.1%), and beer (+2.0%) [4][11][12] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw significant performance differentiation among companies, with several reporting improved earnings. For instance, Shuanghui Development experienced comprehensive profit improvement, while Tianwei Foods exceeded previous profit forecasts due to strong demand and reduced raw material costs [4][11] - The outlook for the first quarter of 2025 suggests that the industry is at a bottoming phase, with expectations of gradual performance recovery in subsequent quarters. It is recommended to increase allocations in the liquor, beer, and snack sectors [4][11] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The food and beverage index outperformed the market with a 0.4% increase, ranking third among industries. Key performers included Miaokelando, Guangming Meat, and Jiahe Foods, while Maikui'er, Lianhua Holdings, and Xiwang Foods faced declines [12][13] Upstream Data - Some upstream raw material prices have decreased. For example, the price of fresh milk was 3.1 yuan/kg, down 12.5% year-on-year, while pork prices increased by 2.3% year-on-year to 20.9 yuan/kg [18][21] - The price of imported barley fell by 10.4% year-on-year, which may alleviate cost pressures for beer companies [27][28] Company Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Shanxi Fenjiu, Guizhou Moutai, Ganyuan Foods, and Ximai Foods, with each showing strong growth potential and strategic advantages in their respective markets [5][49]

证券研究报告 育儿补贴政策催化，关注乳品估值修复 食品饮料 报告日期：2025 年 03 月 17 日 ——食品饮料行业周报 投资评级：推荐（维持） 最近一年走势 执业证书编号：S0230520050001 邮箱：wangf@hlzq.com 周报》2025.03.05 《促消费政策积极，关注需求修复边际 改善—食品饮料行业周报》2025.02.17 《春节旺季消费边际改善，白酒动销符 合预期—食品饮料行业周报》2025.02.11 华龙证券研究所 摘要： 2025.3.3-2025.3.14 申万食品饮料板块上涨 6.98%，跑赢上证指数 4.01pct，在 31 个申万一级行业中排名第六位，涨幅居前。"两会" 政府工作报告提出，2025 年政府工作任务要大力提振消费，全方位 扩大国内需求。加快补上内需特别是消费短板，使内需成为拉动经济 增长的主动力和稳定锚。3 月 17 日，中共中央办公厅、国务院办公 厅印发《提振消费专项行动方案》，要求各地区各部门认真贯彻落实。 我们认为在扩大内需，提振消费的积极政策导向下，食品饮料板块有 望迎来好转，我们维持行业"推荐"评级。 分析师：王芳 白酒：2025.3.3-2 ...

超配（维持） 食品饮料行业双周报（2025/02/28-2025/03/13） 行 食品饮料行业 2025 年 3 月 14 日 分析师：魏红梅 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340513040002 电话：0769-22119462 邮箱：whm2@dgzq.com.cn 两会积极定调，关注需求复苏进程 投资要点： 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 行 业 研 究 业 周 报 邮箱： huangdongyi@dgzq.com.cn 食品饮料（申万）指数走势 资料来源：同花顺,东莞证券研究所 相关报告 证 券 研 究 报 告 ◼ 行情回顾：2025年2月28日-2025年3月13日，SW食品饮料行业指数整体 上涨1.62%，板块涨幅位居申万一级行业第十位，跑赢同期沪深300指数 约3.05个百分点。 ◼ 行业周观点：两会积极定调，关注需求复苏进程。今年政府工作报告提 出，要大力提振消费、提高投资效益，全方位扩大国内需求。此外，国 务院新闻办公室将于2025年3月17日下午3时举行新闻发布会，请有关 ...

行 业 研 究 投资摘要： 每周一谈：消费预期有望逐步回升 关注大众品修复机会 消费预期有望逐步回升，白酒龙头厂家主动调整增长节奏。上周食品饮料指数 涨幅居前，在近期市场整体回升背景下，低估值的顺周期板块有望逐步受到市 场重视。政策把提振消费摆到更加突出位置，我们认为后续宏观增量政策空间 或主要在于促消费领域，食品饮料各子行业需求改善可期。根据 21 世纪经济 报道消息，房地产市场有所复苏，春节后重点一二线城市的供应量、看房量、 交易量等在快速回升，部分城市房价有所提升。同时，宏观经济指标中社零和 CPI 等有望提振，或将带动消费板块投资情绪回升。 消费预期有望逐步回升 关注大众品修复 部分酒企核心大单品前期相继宣布停货、控货，我们认为酒企控货动作或逐步 推动批价企稳回升。目前白酒行业价格及库存压力仍存，旺季短期上量后渠道 仍将处于去库存周期中，龙头厂家主动调整增长节奏，年内报表压力或逐季度 得到释放。分场景看，宴席和商务场景在 2025 年的回补有望带动各价位带全 国化代表品牌、地产酒和大众价位的出货。白酒板块建议从场景承接、区域格 局优化、渠道率先出清、分红率提升角度寻找白酒投资标的，关注徽酒苏酒等 地产 ...