jis 灰安期货 永安合成橡胶早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/8/14 | | | 指标 | 7/14 | 8/6 | 8/11 | 8/12 | 8/13 | 日度变化 | 周度変化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 主力合约收盘价 | 11625 | 11505 | 11785 | 11825 | 11750 | -75 | 245 | | | | 主力合约持仓量 | 24429 | 28087 | 28088 | 26687 | 26557 | -130 | -1530 | | | 第1章 | 主力合约成交量 | 74986 | 51579 | 138315 | 60045 | 80181 | 20136 | 28602 | | | | | 9200 | | 10470 | | 10470 | 0 | 160 | | | | 仓単数量 | | 10310 | | 10470 | | | | | | | 虚实比 | 13.28 | 13.62 | 13.41 | 12.74 | 12.68 | 0 ...

Report Overview - Report Name: Yongan Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Research Center Energy and Chemicals Team - Date: August 14, 2025 [3] - Data Sources: Mysteel, Wind [10] Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Report Core View - No core view is explicitly stated in the report. The report mainly presents data on the synthetic rubber market, including prices, positions, trading volumes, and profit margins. Summary by Relevant Catalog BR (Butadiene Rubber) 1. Futures Contract Information - **Closing Price**: The closing price of the main contract on August 13 was 11,750, a daily decrease of 75 and a weekly increase of 245 compared to July 14 [4]. - **Open Interest**: The open interest of the main contract on August 13 was 26,557, a daily decrease of 130 and a weekly decrease of 1,530 [4]. - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of the main contract on August 13 was 80,181, a daily increase of 20,136 and a weekly increase of 28,602 [4]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of warehouse receipts on August 13 was 10,470, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 160 [4]. - **Virtual - Physical Ratio**: The virtual - physical ratio on August 13 was 12.68, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 1 [4]. 2. Basis and Spread - **Cis - Butadiene Basis**: The cis - butadiene basis on August 13 was 100, a daily increase of 175 and a weekly increase of 5 [4]. - **Cis - Butadiene Basis (Two - Oil)**: The cis - butadiene basis (two - oil) on August 13 was - 50, a daily increase of 75 and a weekly decrease of 45 [4]. - **Styrene - Butadiene Basis**: The styrene - butadiene basis on August 13 was 550, a daily increase of 125 [4]. - **8 - 9 Month Spread**: The 8 - 9 month spread on August 13 was 70, a daily increase of 75 and a weekly increase of 15 [4]. - **9 - 10 Month Spread**: The 9 - 10 month spread on August 13 was - 15, a daily decrease of 20 and a weekly decrease of 20 [4]. 3. Price Information - **Shandong Market Price**: The Shandong market price on August 13 was 11,850, a daily increase of 100 and a weekly increase of 250 [4]. - **Chuanhua Market Price**: The Chuanhua market price on August 13 was 11,850, a daily increase of 150 and a weekly increase of 350 [4]. - **Qilu Factory Price**: The Qilu factory price on August 13 was 11,700, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 200 [4]. - **CFR Northeast Asia**: The CFR Northeast Asia price on August 13 was 1,450, with no daily or weekly change [4]. - **CFR Southeast Asia**: The CFR Southeast Asia price on August 13 was 1,735, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 15 [4]. 4. Processing and Import - Export - **Spot Processing Profit**: The spot processing profit on August 13 was - 15, a daily increase of 64 and a weekly increase of 148 [4]. - **Futures Processing Profit**: The futures processing profit on August 13 was - 115, a daily decrease of 111 and a weekly increase of 143 [4]. - **Import Profit**: The import profit on August 13 was - 83,634, a daily increase of 1 and a weekly decrease of 1,367 [4]. - **Export Profit**: The export profit on August 13 was - 546, a daily decrease of 94 and a weekly decrease of 218 [4]. BD (Butadiene) 1. Price Information - **Shandong Market Price**: The Shandong market price on August 13 was 9,475, a weekly increase of 100 [4]. - **Jiangsu Market Price**: The Jiangsu market price on August 13 was 9,400, a daily increase of 50 and a weekly increase of 50 [4]. - **Yangzi Factory Price**: The Yangzi factory price on August 13 was 9,400, with no daily or weekly change [4]. - **CFR China**: The CFR China price on August 13 was 1,070, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 10 [4]. 2. Processing and Import - Export - **Carbon Four Extraction Profit**: The carbon four extraction profit on August 11 was 2,338 [4]. - **Butene Oxidative Dehydrogenation Profit**: The butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit on August 13 was 306, a daily increase of 50 and a weekly decrease of 20 [4]. - **Import Profit**: The import profit on August 13 was 564, a daily increase of 56 and a weekly increase of 132 [4]. - **Export Profit**: The export profit on August 13 was - 1,144, a daily decrease of 49 and a weekly increase of 100 [4]. 3. Downstream Profit - **Cis - Butadiene Production Profit**: The cis - butadiene production profit on August 13 was - 115, a daily decrease of 111 and a weekly increase of 143 [4]. - **Styrene - Butadiene Production Profit**: The styrene - butadiene production profit on August 13 was 750, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 200 [4]. - **ABS Production Profit**: Data on August 11 and later is N/A [4]. - **SBS Production Profit (791 - H)**: The SBS production profit (791 - H) on August 13 was 1,145, a daily decrease of 15 and a weekly increase of 185 [4]. Spread 1. Inter - Variety Spread - **RU - BR**: The RU - BR spread on August 13 was - 10,757, a daily increase of 70 and a weekly increase of 1,832 [4]. - **NR - BR**: The NR - BR spread on August 13 was - 13,947, a daily increase of 75 and a weekly increase of 1,820 [4]. - **Thai Mixed - Cis - Butadiene**: The Thai mixed - cis - butadiene spread on August 13 was 2,750, a daily decrease of 120 and a weekly increase of 30 [4]. - **3L - Styrene - Butadiene**: The 3L - styrene - butadiene spread on August 13 was 2,500, a daily decrease of 100 and a weekly decrease of 150 [4]. 2. Intra - Variety Spread - **Cis - Butadiene Standard - Non - Standard Price Difference**: The cis - butadiene standard - non - standard price difference on August 13 was 150, a daily decrease of 50 and a weekly decrease of 100 [4]. - **Styrene - Butadiene 1502 - 1712**: The styrene - butadiene 1502 - 1712 spread on August 13 was 1,000, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 150 [4].

Report Summary - Industry Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: Despite cost support, supply is expected to increase as maintenance devices restart. There is a divergence in the negotiation focus between traders and downstream users in the spot market. Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises increased slightly, and the production enterprise inventory is expected to decline slightly this week, while the trade enterprise inventory is expected to increase. The short - term capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises may be slightly adjusted, and the BR2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,680 - 12,200 [2] Data Indicators Summary Futures Market - The closing price of the main synthetic rubber contract is 11,750 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan; the open interest is 26,557, down 130; the 9 - 10 spread is - 15 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 2,490 tons, unchanged [2] Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 from different petrochemical companies ranges from 11,750 - 11,850 yuan/ton, with price changes from 0 - 100 yuan; the basis of synthetic rubber is 100 yuan/ton, up 175 yuan; Brent crude oil is 825 dollars/barrel, down 0.51 dollars; WTI crude oil is 63.17 dollars/barrel, down 0.79 dollars; the price of butadiene in Shandong market is 9,475 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The weekly butadiene production capacity is 14.69 million tons, down 0.08 million tons; the capacity utilization rate is 69.76%, down 0.21 percentage points; the port inventory is 14,700 tons, up 4,300 tons; the operating rate of Shandong refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 46.87%, down 1.33 percentage points [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of butadiene rubber is 12.25 million tons, down 1.69 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 68.17%, down 4.29 percentage points; the production profit is - 606 yuan/ton, down 231 yuan; the social inventory is 3.14 million tons, up 0.01 million tons; the manufacturer inventory is 24,150 tons, up 350 tons; the trader inventory is 7,290 tons, down 230 tons [2] - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 74.35%, down 0.1 percentage points; the operating rate of full - steel tires is 61%, down 0.08 percentage points; the monthly output of full - steel tires is 12.62 million pieces, up 800,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 55.23 million pieces, up 1.08 million pieces; the inventory days of full - steel tires in Shandong are 39.37 days, down 0.08 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 46.45 days, up 0.81 days [2] Industry News - As of August 6, the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China is 3.14 million tons, up 0.01 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.38% - As of August 7, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 69.71%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.27 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 9.93 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises is 60.06%, a month - on - month increase of 0.80 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.73 percentage points - In July 2025, the output of butadiene rubber in China is 12.92 million tons, up 0.67 million tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 5.47% and a year - on - year increase of 27.04% [2]

Core Viewpoint - China has initiated anti-dumping investigations against synthetic rubber imports from Japan and Canada, citing substantial harm to its domestic industry [2][4]. Group 1: Anti-Dumping Investigation - The investigation targets "halogenated butyl rubber" used in passenger car tires, with the process starting in September 2024 [2][4]. - Preliminary findings indicate that synthetic rubber from Japan and Canada is causing significant damage to China's domestic industry [2][4]. Group 2: Import Duties - As of August 14, 2023, importers are required to pay a maximum deposit of 40.5% of the import value to customs [2]. - Japanese companies will need to pay a deposit ranging from 13.8% to 30.1% of the import value, while Canadian companies will face a deposit of 26.2% to 40.5% [4].

不 灰安期货 永安合成橡胶早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/8/13 | | | | | | | | WIZUTI URUTURIW | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | 7/11 | 8/5 | 8/8 | 8/11 | 8/12 | 目度变化 | 間度变化 | | | | 主力合约收盘价 | 11615 | 11515 | 11515 | 11785 | 11825 | 40 | 310 | | | | 主力合约持仓量 | 26294 | 30432 | 25625 | 28088 | 26687 | -1401 | -3745 | | | 電車 | 主力合约成交量 | 82299 | 53945 | 41370 | 138315 | 60045 | -78270 | 6100 | | | | 仓单数量 | 8600 | 10540 | 10310 | 10470 | 0 | -10470 | -10540 | | | | 虚实比 | 15.29 | 14.44 | 12.43 | 13 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Yongan Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Research Center Energy and Chemicals Team [3] - Report Date: August 13, 2025 [3] Group 2: BR (Butadiene Rubber) Data 1. Futures Contract Data - Main contract closing price on August 12 was 11,825, with a daily change of 40 and a weekly change of 310 [4] - Main contract open interest on August 12 was 26,687, with a daily change of -1,401 and a weekly change of -3,745 [4] - Main contract trading volume on August 12 was 60,045, with a daily change of -78,270 and a weekly change of 6,100 [4] 2. Warehouse Receipt and Ratio Data - Warehouse receipt quantity on August 12 was 0, with a daily change of -10,470 and a weekly change of -10,540 [4] - The virtual - real ratio on August 12 had a DIV/0! error [4] 3. Basis and Spread Data - Butadiene basis on August 12 was -75, with a daily change of 10 and a weekly change of -160 [4] - Butadiene basis (Two - oil) on August 12 was -125, with a daily change of -40 and a weekly change of -110 [4] - Styrene - butadiene basis on August 12 was 425, with a daily change of 60 and a weekly change of -60 [4] - 8 - 9 month spread on August 12 was -5, with a daily change of -15 and a weekly change of -5 [4] - 9 - 10 month spread on August 12 was 5, with a daily change of 5 and a weekly change of 10 [4] 4. Price and Profit Data - Shandong market price on August 12 was 11,750, with a daily change of 50 and a weekly change of 150 [4] - Chuanhua market price on August 12 was 11,700, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 200 [4] - Qilu ex - factory price on August 12 was 11,700, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 200 [4] - CFR Northeast Asia on August 12 was 1,450, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 0 [4] - CFR Southeast Asia on August 12 was 1,735, with a daily change of -15 and a weekly change of -15 [4] - Spot processing profit on August 12 was -79, with a daily change of 111 and a weekly change of -18 [4] - Futures processing profit on August 12 was -4, with a daily change of 101 and a weekly change of 142 [4] - Import profit on August 12 was -83,803, with a daily change of 45 and a weekly change of -1,536 [4] - Export profit on August 12 was -452, with a daily change of -43 and a weekly change of -124 [4] Group 3: BD (Butadiene) Data 1. Price Data - Shandong market price on August 12 was 9,440, with a daily change of -60 and a weekly change of 140 [4] - Jiangsu market price on August 12 was 9,350, with a daily change of -50 and a weekly change of 100 [4] - Yangzi ex - factory price on August 12 was 9,400, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 200 [4] - CFR China on August 12 was 1,070, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of -10 [4] 2. Profit Data - Carbon four extraction profit data for August 12 was N/A [4] - Butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit on August 12 was 256, with a daily change of -50 and a weekly change of 30 [4] - Import profit on August 12 was 508, with a daily change of -20 and a weekly change of 175 [4] - Export profit on August 12 was -1,096, with a daily change of 44 and a weekly change of 61 [4] 3. Downstream Profit Data - Butadiene rubber production profit on August 12 was -4, with a daily change of 101 and a weekly change of 142 [4] - Styrene - butadiene rubber production profit on August 12 was 750, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 25 [4] - ABS production profit data for August 12 was N/A [4] - SBS (791 - H) production profit on August 12 was 1,160, with a daily change of 200 and a weekly change of 30 [4] Group 4: Spread Data 1. Inter - variety Spread - The difference between Thai mixed rubber and butadiene rubber on August 12 was 2,870, with a daily change of -10 and a weekly change of 150 [4] - The difference between 3L rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber on August 12 was 2,600, with a daily change of -100 and a weekly change of -50 [4] - The difference between RU and BR on August 12 was -10,827, with a daily change of 1,200 and a weekly change of 5,060 [4] - The difference between NR and BR on August 12 was -14,022, with a daily change of 1,446 and a weekly change of 4,110 [4] 2. Intra - variety Spread - The difference between standard and non - standard butadiene rubber on August 12 was 200, with a daily change of 50 and a weekly change of -50 [4] - The difference between styrene - butadiene 1502 and 1712 on August 12 was 1,000, with a daily change of 50 and a weekly change of -150 [4]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The cost recently supports the offer price of butadiene rubber, but the supply will increase after the restart of maintenance devices. The negotiation focus of spot - end traders and downstream is divergent. The inventory of butadiene rubber sample enterprises increased slightly last week. Although some production devices were shut down for short - term maintenance, the price center of the spot end is low due to the downstream's wait - and - see sentiment and arbitrage resources. This week, with the co - existence of device maintenance and restart, the supply is expected to change little. Under the shipping pressure, the inventory of production enterprises is expected to decline slightly, while the inventory of trading enterprises is expected to increase. In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises fluctuated slightly last week. The production capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises may be slightly adjusted in the short term, with limited overall fluctuation space. The BR2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,680 - 12,200 [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 11,825 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 40 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 26,687, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,401. The 9 - 10 spread of synthetic rubber is 5 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 5 yuan/ton. The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 2,490 tons, with no week - on - week change [2]. Spot Market - The mainstream price of butadiene rubber (BR9000, Qilu Petrochemical) in Shandong is 11,700 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 100 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of butadiene rubber (BR9000, Daqing Petrochemical) in Shandong is 11,700 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 150 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of butadiene rubber (BR9000, Daqing Petrochemical) in Shanghai is 11,750 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 150 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of butadiene rubber (BR9000, Maoming Petrochemical) in Guangdong is 11,750 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 200 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber is - 75 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - Brent crude oil is at $66.63 per barrel, with a week - on - week increase of $0.04; WTI crude oil is at $63.96 per barrel, with a week - on - week increase of $0.08. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene is $825 per ton, with a week - on - week increase of $5; the price of naphtha (CFR Japan) is $568 per ton, with a week - on - week decrease of $2.5; the intermediate price of butadiene (CFR China) is $1,070 per ton, with no week - on - week change. The mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 9,440 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 60 yuan/ton. The weekly capacity of butadiene is 146,900 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 800 tons; the capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 69.76%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.21 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 14,700 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 4,300 tons. The operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 46.87%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.33 percentage points [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of butadiene rubber is 122,500 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 16,900 tons. The weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber is 68.17%, with a week - on - week decrease of 4.29 percentage points. The weekly production profit of butadiene rubber is - 606 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 231 yuan/ton. The social inventory of butadiene rubber is 31,400 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 100 tons; the manufacturer's inventory of butadiene rubber is 24,150 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 350 tons; the trader's inventory of butadiene rubber is 7,290 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 230 tons. The weekly operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 74.35%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 percentage point; the weekly operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 61%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.08 percentage point. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.62 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 800,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 55.23 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 1.08 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 39.37 days, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.08 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 46.45 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.81 days [2]. Industry News - As of August 6, the inventory of China's high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 31,400 tons, an increase of 100 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 0.38%. As of August 7, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.71%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.27 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 9.93 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 60.06%, a week - on - week increase of 0.80 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.73 percentage points. In July 2025, China's butadiene rubber output was 129,200 tons, an increase of 6,700 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 5.47% and a year - on - year increase of 27.04% [2]. 4. Focus - No news is reported today.

Raw Materials and Spot Prices - As of August 11, the market price of butadiene in Shandong is 9500 yuan/ton, an increase of 125 yuan/ton; CIF price for butadiene in China is 1070 USD/ton, unchanged; the market price for styrene-butadiene rubber (BR9000) in Shandong Qilu Petrochemical is 11700 yuan/ton, with a price difference of -2880 yuan/ton and a basis of -85 yuan/ton [1] Production and Operating Rates - In July, China's butadiene production was 453,600 tons, a month-on-month increase of 3%; styrene-butadiene rubber production was 129,200 tons, a month-on-month increase of 5.5%; semi-steel tire production was 56.97 million units, a month-on-month decrease of 1.1%, but a year-on-year increase of 7.8%; full-steel tire production was 12.75 million units, a month-on-month increase of 1% and a year-on-year increase of 5.1% [2] - As of August 7, the operating rates in the styrene-butadiene rubber industry showed differentiation, with butadiene industry operating rate at 69.8%, a decrease of 0.3%; high-styrene butadiene rubber industry operating rate at 68.2%, a decrease of 5.9%; semi-steel tire sample manufacturers' operating rate at 69.7%, a decrease of 0.4%; full-steel tire sample manufacturers' operating rate at 60.1%, an increase of 1.3% [2] Inventory Levels - As of August 6, butadiene port inventory was 14,700 tons, an increase of 4,300 tons; styrene-butadiene rubber factory inventory was 24,150 tons, an increase of 350 tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.5%; traders' inventory was 7,290 tons, a decrease of 230 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3.1% [3] Industry News - According to Longzhong Information on August 11, Qixiang Tengda's 90,000 tons/year high-styrene butadiene rubber unit has been shut down for maintenance since August 1 and is expected to restart soon; China National Petroleum Corporation's Jilin Petrochemical Company is currently in the commissioning phase of its 200,000 tons/year butadiene unit [4] Market Analysis - On August 11, commodity prices rose, with natural rubber strengthening, boosting BR prices. The main contract for synthetic rubber BR2509 closed at 11,785 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.48% compared to the previous day's settlement price. On the cost side, the Maoming Petrochemical butadiene unit is restarting, and Fushun Petrochemical plans maintenance, while Jilin Petrochemical is in the commissioning phase, indicating a potentially ample domestic supply. Additionally, port inventories remain relatively low, with expected concentrated imports arriving in late August, limiting the downside for butadiene in the short term. Supply-side dynamics show a mix of unit restarts and maintenance, with a slight expected increase in styrene-butadiene rubber supply and limited inventory depletion. Demand-side pressures persist, particularly for semi-steel tires, which maintain high inventory levels, complicating production rate increases. Overall, while the cost side has limited downside, the supply-demand balance for BR remains loose, suggesting a wide fluctuation in prices [5]

ijis 加安期货 永安合成橡胶早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/8/12 | | | 指标 | 7/10 | 8/4 | 8/7 | 8/8 | 8/11 | 日度变化 | 周度变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 主力合约收盘价 | 11615 | 11395 | 11535 | 11515 | 11785 | 270 | 390 | | | | 主力合约持仓量 | 27306 | 31806 | 26456 | 25625 | 28088 | 2463 | -3718 | | | 居面 | 主力合约成交量 | 103683 | 55081 | 60111 | 41370 | 138315 | 96945 | 83234 | | | | 仓単数量 | 8600 | 10540 | 10310 | 10310 | 10470 | 160 | -70 | | | | 虚实比 | 15.88 | 15.09 | 12.83 | 12.43 | 13.41 | 1 | -2 | | | | 顺丁基差 | - ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the synthetic rubber industry is "Bearish Oscillation" [3] Core Viewpoint of the Report - International crude oil prices have been declining, and the price of BR (Butadiene Rubber) has been consolidating. The supply of butadiene is affected by various factors such as device shutdowns and restarts, and the demand for rubber tires is relatively stable. The inventory of butadiene and BR has increased, and the profit of the rubber industry is under pressure. Geopolitical factors also have a negative impact on the market. Overall, the market for butadiene rubber is expected to be bearish with oscillations [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - The price of high - cis butadiene rubber of Sinopec and PetroChina sales companies decreased by 300 - 400 yuan/ton this period. As of August 7, 2025, the mainstream ex - factory price of high - cis butadiene rubber in China was 11,500 - 11,600 yuan/ton [4] 2. Supply Analysis - **Butadiene**: Last week, the domestic butadiene production was 102,500 tons (-0.87%), with a capacity utilization rate of 69.76%. Some devices such as Nanjing Chengzhi, Sierbang, Yanshan Petrochemical, and Dongming Petrochemical were shut down, while some devices were restarted. The overall production decreased [3] - **Butadiene Rubber**: In July, some butadiene rubber devices were shut down, and some were restarted. It is expected that the production of butadiene rubber will continue to increase in August [3] 3. Demand Analysis - **Semi - steel Tires**: The replacement market price has no obvious adjustment this period. Some brands launched special - price patterns at the beginning of the month, and the actual market price is stable [3] - **All - steel Tires**: In August, the market price is mostly stable. Some brands planned to raise prices, but other enterprises did not follow up. The economic tire specifications are in short supply, and the inventory of mid - to high - end products is relatively sufficient [3] 4. Inventory Analysis - **Butadiene**: Last week, the port inventory of butadiene was 14,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 41.35%. The overall inventory of enterprises has little fluctuation, and there is no obvious inventory pressure recently [3] - **Butadiene Rubber**: The inventory of sample production enterprises increased, and the inventory of sample trading enterprises decreased slightly this period [3] 5. Basis, Spread/Price Ratio, and Profit Analysis - **Basis**: The basis of butadiene rubber in North China is - 115 yuan/ton, in East China is 35 yuan/ton, and in South China is 35 yuan/ton [3] - **Spread/Price Ratio**: The RU - BR spread is 4,035 yuan/ton (41.33%), the NR - BR spread is 890 yuan/ton (23.61%), and the BR - SC price ratio is 0.97% [3] - **Profit**: The production profit of butadiene oxidation dehydrogenation and carbon four extraction, as well as the production profit and gross profit margin of butadiene rubber, are all under pressure [3] 6. Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Factors - OPEC + plans to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, which leads to a loose supply of crude oil and a weak demand in the refined oil market. International oil and gas prices are oscillating downward. Trump signed an executive order to increase tariffs on Indian goods exported to the US, and the Sino - US tariff negotiation is approaching [3] 7. Investment and Trading Strategies - **Investment Viewpoint**: The maintenance of devices in Shandong and South China has a positive impact on the supply price of butadiene, but the short - term price change is small. The fundamentals of butadiene rubber remain the same, with traders reducing inventory and factories increasing inventory. The overall inventory level changes little, and the market trading volume is average [3] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is expected to be oscillating. For arbitrage, pay attention to the strategy of going long on BR and short on NR/RU. Risks to be concerned about include downstream demand, cost changes, device maintenance, and geopolitical factors [3]