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合成橡胶产业日报-20250709
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-09 08:50
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoint - In the short - term, the br2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,000 - 11,400 yuan/ton. Last week, influenced by the weak raw material market and continuous shipping pressure, domestic cis - butadiene rubber enterprise inventories decreased slightly. However, downstream shipping pressure remains high, and production enterprise and trading enterprise inventories are expected to increase slightly. The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased last week, but this week, as enterprise maintenance ends, it will enter the production recovery phase, which will drive up the overall capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber is 11,310 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 5 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 27,783 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 250 lots. The spread between August and September for synthetic rubber is 70 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 15 yuan/ton. The total number of warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber in warehouses is 1,600 tons, with no week - on - week change [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong is 11,450 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change; the mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 11,300 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change. The mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai is 11,300 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change; the mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 11,400 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change. The basis of synthetic rubber is 140 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of Brent crude oil is $70.15 per barrel, with a week - on - week increase of $0.57; the price of WTI crude oil is $68.33 per barrel, with a week - on - week increase of $0.4. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene is $820 per ton, with no week - on - week change; the price of naphtha CFR Japan is $586.5 per ton, with a week - on - week increase of $9.5; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is $1,060 per ton, with no week - on - week change. The market price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 9,150 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 300 yuan/ton. The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 147,800 tons, with no week - on - week change; the utilization rate of butadiene production capacity is 70.91%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.16 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 22,330 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 5,120 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 44.97%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.05 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Production and Inventory of Cis - Butadiene Rubber - The monthly production of cis - butadiene rubber is 122,500 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 16,900 tons; the weekly utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber production capacity is 66.98%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.56 percentage points. The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 164 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 414 yuan/ton. The weekly social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 33,200 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 900 tons; the weekly enterprise inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 26,350 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,300 tons; the weekly trader inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 6,800 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 430 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 70.41%, with a week - on - week decrease of 7.64 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 63.75%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.89 percentage points. The monthly production of all - steel tires is 12.62 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 800,000 pieces; the monthly production of semi - steel tires is 55.23 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 1.08 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 40.45 days, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.48 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 46.48 days, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.67 days [2]. 3.6 Industry News - As of July 3, the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 33,200 tons, a decrease of 900 tons from the previous period (June 25, 2025), a week - on - week decrease of 2.56%. As of July 3, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises in China was 64.13%, a week - on - week decrease of 6.27 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 15.85 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.53%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.70 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.96 percentage points. In June 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold approximately 92,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month increase of 4% from May and a year - on - year increase of approximately 29%. From January to June 2025, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market were approximately 533,300 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of approximately 6% [2].
广发期货日评-20250709
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-07-09 05:12
1. Operation Suggestions - Entering a new round of US trade policy negotiation window, the index has broken through the upper limit of the short - term oscillation range and the central value continues to rise. Consider buying low - strike put options and selling high - strike put options to implement a bullish spread strategy. The short - term fluctuation range of T2509 may be between 108.8 - 109.2. For the unilateral strategy, it is recommended to increase positions on dips, take profit near the previous high, and pay attention to the trend of capital interest rates. For the curve strategy, continue to recommend steepening [2]. 2. Financial Sector 2.1 Treasury Bonds - With the bottoming out of capital interest rates and the stock - bond seesaw effect, Treasury bond futures may show a narrow - range oscillation in the short term. It is recommended to increase positions on dips, take profit near the previous high, and pay attention to the trend of capital interest rates. The curve strategy still recommends steepening [3]. 2.2 Precious Metals - The market has digested part of the impact of US tariffs. As the US dollar strengthens, gold prices have declined. Gold prices are expected to fluctuate around $3300 (765 yuan). Sell out - of - the - money gold call options above 790. Silver prices are affected by gold and non - ferrous industrial products and fluctuate repeatedly, oscillating in the range of $36 - 37 in the short term [3]. 2.3 Shipping Index (European Line) - The EC contract has moved up on the disk. Be cautiously bullish on the EC08 main contract [3]. 3. Black Sector 3.1 Steel - The demand and inventory of industrial steel products have deteriorated. Pay attention to the decline in apparent demand. For unilateral operations, it is advisable to wait and see for the time being. For arbitrage, consider the strategy of going long on steel products and short on raw materials [3]. 3.2 Iron Ore - The sentiment in the black sector has improved, and anti - involution is beneficial to the valuation increase. Go long on dips, with the fluctuation range referring to 700 - 750 [3]. 3.3 Coking Coal - The auction non - transaction rate in the market has decreased, the expectation of coal mine resumption has strengthened, the spot market is running strongly, trading has warmed up, and coal mine shipments have improved. Go long on dips [3]. 3.4 Coke - The fourth round of price cuts by mainstream steel mills on June 23 has been implemented, and the coking profit has declined, with the price approaching the阶段性 bottom. Go long on dips [3]. 4. Non - Ferrous Sector 4.1 Copper - The logic of LME soft squeeze has weakened. Pay attention to the rhythm of US tariff policies. The main contract reference range is 78500 - 80000 [3]. 4.2 Alumina - The spot market has tightened temporarily, and the disk has strongly broken through the 3100 pressure level. The main contract reference range is 2850 - 3150 [3]. 4.3 Aluminum - The spot discount has widened, and the inventory has slightly accumulated. The main contract reference range is 19800 - 20800 [3]. 4.4 Aluminum Alloy - The disk fluctuates with aluminum prices, and the fundamentals remain weak in the off - season. The main contract reference range is 19200 - 20000 [3]. 4.5 Zinc - Concerns about tariffs have resurfaced, and the demand outlook remains weak. The main contract reference range is 21500 - 23000 [3]. 4.6 Tin - There are significant short - term macro disturbances. Pay attention to changes in US tariff policies. Hold short positions at high levels [3]. 4.7 Stainless Steel - There are still macro risks, and the disk has slightly declined. The industrial overcapacity still restricts the market. The main contract reference range is 118000 - 126000 [3]. 4.8 Nickel - The disk has been slightly boosted, but the fundamentals have not changed significantly. The main contract reference range is 12500 - 13000 [3]. 5. Energy and Chemical Sector 5.1 Crude Oil - The tariff issue has eased, and positive factors have driven the disk up. It is recommended to take a short - term bullish view. The resistance levels for WTI are [68, 69], for Brent are [70, 71], and for SC are [510, 520] [3]. 5.2 Urea - There is still some order support on the demand side. Pay attention to the progress of export - related news in the future. Enter the market cautiously on dips in the short term. If the actual demand fails to meet expectations, exit the market. The support level for the main contract is adjusted to 1690 - 1700 [3]. 5.3 PX - Oil prices are strong, but the supply - demand margin has weakened. The short - term driving force for PX is limited. PX09 will operate in the range of 6500 - 6900 in the short term. Pay attention to the support at the lower end of the range [3]. 5.4 PTA - The supply - demand outlook has weakened, but the cost side is strong. PTA will maintain an oscillation. In the short term, it will oscillate in the range of 4600 - 4900. Short at the upper end of the range. Implement a rolling reverse spread strategy for TA9 - 1 [3]. 5.5 Short - Fiber - With the expectation of factory production cuts, the processing margin has improved. The unilateral strategy for PF is the same as that for PTA. Expand the processing margin at the low level of the PF disk. Pay attention to the pressure around 1100 for the disk processing margin and the implementation of future production cuts [3]. 5.6 Bottle Chip - It is the peak demand season, production cuts of bottle chips have increased, the processing margin has recovered, and PR fluctuates with costs. The processing margin of the PR main disk is expected to fluctuate in the range of 350 - 600 yuan/ton. Look for opportunities to expand at the lower end of the range [3]. 5.7 Ethanol - The supply - demand situation is gradually turning to be loose, and the short - term demand is weak. It is expected that MEG will face pressure above. Pay attention to the pressure around 4400 for EG09 in the short term. Sell call options at high levels. Implement a reverse spread strategy for EG9 - 1 at high levels [3]. 5.8 Caustic Soda - There has been a macro - stimulated rebound. Pay attention to whether the alumina purchase price will follow. With the strong short - term macro sentiment, it is expected to rebound at low levels, but the momentum depends on the follow - up of the spot market [3]. 5.9 PVC - Driven by the expectation of "supply - side optimization", still pay attention to the anti - dumping duty ruling in July. Be cautiously optimistic about the rebound space of near - month contracts [3]. 5.10 Pure Benzene - The supply - demand margin has improved, but the driving force for near - month contracts is limited due to high inventory. Be cautiously bearish on far - month contracts. Since the first - line contract BZ2603 of pure benzene is far away in time, the driving force is limited under the supply - demand game. Be cautiously bearish or wait and see for unilateral operations. Implement a reverse spread strategy for the monthly spread [3]. 5.11 Styrene - The supply - demand outlook is weak, and the cost support is limited. Styrene may gradually face pressure. It is recommended to sell call options with a strike price above 7500 for EB08 [3]. 5.12 Synthetic Rubber - Due to an unexpected device incident, butadiene has rebounded, boosting the rise of BR. Pay attention to the pressure around 11500 for BR2508 in the short term [3]. 5.13 LLDPE - Trading has weakened, and prices have slightly declined. It will oscillate in the short term [3]. 5.14 PP - Both supply and demand are weak, and the cost - side support has weakened. Be cautiously bearish. Enter short positions at 7250 - 7300 [3]. 5.15 Methanol - The basis has rapidly weakened. Pay attention to Iranian shipments. Conduct range - bound operations between 2200 - 2500 [3]. 6. Agricultural Sector 6.1 Sugar - The overseas supply outlook is relatively loose. Trade with a short - bias on rebounds [3]. 6.2 Cotton - The downstream market remains weak. Hold short positions on rallies in the short term [3]. 6.3 Eggs - The spot market remains weak. Be bearish in the long - term [3]. 6.4 Apples - Trading is light, and prices have weakened. The main contract will operate around 7700 [3]. 6.5 Jujubes - Market prices have fluctuated slightly. The main contract will operate around 10500 [3]. 6.6 Peanuts - Market prices have oscillated steadily. The main contract will operate around 8100 [3]. 6.7 Soda Ash - Inventory accumulation continues, and the oversupply pattern is prominent. Adopt a short - on - rebound strategy [3]. 7. Special Commodity Sector 7.1 Glass - The macro atmosphere has warmed up, and the disk has generally performed strongly. Wait and see in the short term [3]. 7.2 Rubber - There is an expectation of weakening fundamentals. Hold short positions above 14000 [3]. 7.3 Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures price has rebounded with polysilicon. Wait and see [3]. 8. New Energy Sector 8.1 Polysilicon - The spot quotation of polysilicon has been raised, and multiple futures contracts have reached the daily limit. Wait and see [3]. 8.2 Lithium Carbonate - The disk is running strongly, but there are increasing macro risks and fundamental pressure. The main contract reference range is 60,000 - 65,000 [3]. 9. Stock Index - The market trading sentiment is becoming more optimistic, and the broader market is approaching a new high [4].
永安合成橡胶早报-20250709
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-09 01:08
l js 永安合成橡胶早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/7/9 | | | 指标 | 6/6 | 7/1 | 7/4 | 7/7 | 7/8 | 日度变化 | 周度変化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 主力合约收盘价 | 11300 | 11260 | 11275 | 11000 | 11305 | 305 | 45 | | | | 主力合约持仓量 | 24880 | 27411 | 27024 | 30276 | 28033 | -2243 | 622 | | | ETE | 主力合约成交量 | 159507 | 92497 | 87186 | 133795 | 173632 | 39837 | 81135 | | | | 仓単数量 | 11800 | 7700 | 7700 | 8100 | 8600 | 500 | 900 | | | | 虚实比 | 10.54 | 17.80 | 17.55 | 18.69 | 16.30 | -2 | -2 | | | | 顺丁基差 | 300 | 290 | ...
合成橡胶产业日报-20250707
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-07 09:51
| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 11000 | -275 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 30276 | 3252 | | | 合成橡胶8-9价差(日,元/吨) | 70 | -5 仓单数量:丁二烯橡胶:仓库:总计(日,吨) | 1100 | 400 | | 现货市场 | 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,齐鲁石化):山 东(日,元/吨) | 11500 | 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):山 0 | 11400 | 0 | | | 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):上 | 11400 | 东(日,元/吨) -50 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,茂名石化):广 | 11500 | 0 | | | 海(日,元/吨) 基差:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) 布伦特原油(日,美元/桶) | 450 68.3 | 东(日,元/吨) 225 -0.5 石脑油:CFR日本(日,美元/吨) | 578.75 | 1 ...
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-20250707
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-07 07:19
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report provides trend forecasts for various futures products, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., with different products showing trends such as rising, falling, and fluctuating [2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: Non - farm payrolls exceeded expectations, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][6][9]. - **Silver**: Continued to rise, with a trend strength of 1 [2][6][9]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Global inventories increased, and prices fluctuated, with a trend strength of 0 [2][11][13]. - **Zinc**: Traded sideways, with a trend strength of 0 [2][14]. - **Lead**: Supported by short - term consumption peak season expectations, with a trend strength of 1 [2][16][17]. - **Tin**: Driven by the macro - environment, with a trend strength of 0 [2][19][22]. - **Nickel**: Upside potential was limited, and prices were under pressure at low levels, with a trend strength of 0 [2][23]. - **Stainless Steel**: Inventories were slightly digested, and prices recovered but with limited elasticity, with a trend strength of 0 [2][24][29]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Prices were under pressure, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][30][33]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Adopt a strategy of shorting at high prices, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][34][36]. - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to policy changes, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][34][36]. - **Iron Ore**: Expectations were volatile, and prices fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][37]. - **Rebar**: Fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][39][42]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][40][42]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: Fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][43][46]. - **Manganese Ferrosilicon**: Fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][43][46]. - **Coke**: The first round of price increase was brewing, and prices fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][48][50]. - **Coking Coal**: Fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][48][50]. - **Steam Coal**: Daily consumption recovered, and prices stabilized with fluctuations, with a trend strength of 0 [2][52][55]. - **Log**: The main contract switched, and prices fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][56][58]. - **Para - Xylene**: Cost support was weak, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][59][65]. - **PTA**: Close the long - PX short - PTA position, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][59][66]. - **MEG**: Traded in a single - sided oscillation, with a trend strength of 0 [2][59][66]. - **Rubber**: Traded in an oscillatory manner [2][67]. Others - **Fuel Oil**: Adjusted narrowly at night, with low - level fluctuations in the market [4]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Strong in the short - term, with the high - low sulfur spread in the overseas spot market oscillating at a high level [4]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The 08 contract oscillated and sorted; hold a light short position in the 10 contract [4]. - **Short - Fiber**: Traded weakly with oscillations, and demand pressure gradually emerged [4]. - **Bottle Chip**: Traded weakly with oscillations, long PR short PF [4]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: Traded in an oscillatory manner [4]. - **Palm Oil**: Fundamental contradictions were not obvious, and prices were greatly affected by international oil prices [4]. - **Soybean Oil**: There was insufficient speculation on U.S. soybean weather, lacking driving forces [4]. - **Soybean Meal**: The U.S. soybean market was closed overnight, lacking guidance, and the Dalian soybean meal might oscillate [4]. - **Soybean No. 1**: Spot prices were stable, and the market oscillated [4]. - **Corn**: Traded in an oscillatory manner [4]. - **Sugar**: Traded in a narrow range [4]. - **Cotton**: Attention should be paid to U.S. tariff policies and their impacts [4]. - **Egg**: It was difficult to increase the culling rate, and attention should be paid to the pre - emptive expectations [4]. - **Live Pig**: The gaming sentiment increased [4]. - **Peanut**: There was support at the bottom [4].
永安合成橡胶早报-20250707
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-07 00:39
jis 永安合成橡胶早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/7/7 | | | 指标 | 6/4 | 6/27 | 7/2 | 7/3 | 7/4 | 日度变化 | 周度变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 主力合约收盘价 | 11095 | 11275 | 11260 | 11185 | 11275 | 90 | 0 | | | | 主力合约持仓量 | 27683 | 33472 | 27889 | 28760 | 27024 | -1736 | -6448 | | | : 11 | 主力合约成交量 | 129848 | 96846 | 89875 | 105416 | 87186 | -18230 | -9660 | | | | 仓单数量 | 11900 | 7700 | 7700 | 7700 | 7700 | 0 | 0 | | | | 虚实比 | 11.63 | 21.74 | 18.11 | 18.68 | 17.55 | -1 | -4 | | | | 顺丁基差 | 305 | 275 | 24 ...
能源化工合成橡胶周度报告-20250706
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-06 12:59
Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Weekly Report - Report Date: July 6, 2025 - Report Author: Yang Honghan - Report Source: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute [1] Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The synthetic rubber market is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate. The cost of butadiene, a key raw material for cis - butadiene rubber, is weakening due to increased supply pressure in the domestic butadiene market. The cis - butadiene rubber market shows a pattern of both supply and demand growth, with supply growth exceeding demand growth, leading to greater fundamental pressure. However, the widening NR - BR spread to around 1,500 yuan/ton may support the single - sided price of cis - butadiene rubber [2][3][4]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Outlook and Analysis - **Futures - end Static Valuation**: The static valuation range of cis - butadiene rubber futures is 10,700 - 11,700 yuan/ton. The dynamic valuation is expected to decline due to weak butadiene trading. The upper valuation limit of the futures is around 11,700 - 11,800 yuan/ton, and the lower theoretical valuation limit is around 11,200 yuan/ton. The theoretical full - cost estimate of cis - butadiene rubber is mainly based on butadiene price * 1.02+(auxiliaries + labor) [4]. - **Butadiene Fundamentals**: Asian butadiene prices remain stable, while the domestic butadiene market is weak with a downward - trending price center. Supply is high as the industry's operating rate is still at a high level year - on - year, and weekly production is maintained at a high level with the resumption of some ethylene plants. Imports are neutral in the short term. Demand from cis - butadiene rubber procurement is neutral, and there is also rigid demand from styrene - butadiene, ABS, and SBS. Inventories show an increase in producer inventories and a slight decline in port inventories [4]. - **Cis - Butadiene Rubber Fundamentals**: The processing profit of cis - butadiene rubber is gradually returning above the break - even line, and the supply - side operating rate is expected to remain high year - on - year and increase month - on - month. Demand remains high, and substitution demand is expected to increase. Inventories are continuously at a high level year - on - year. The fundamentals have a weak driving force for synthetic rubber, and the spot is expected to fluctuate in the short term [4]. - **Cis - Butadiene Rubber Futures**: In the short term, cis - butadiene rubber is under pressure. The cost side is affected by the weakening butadiene market, and the market shows a pattern where supply growth exceeds demand growth, resulting in greater fundamental pressure. The widening NR - BR spread may support the price [4]. - **Strategy**: Short - term weakness in single - sided trading; the NR - BR spread is expected to widen [4]. 2. Butadiene Fundamentals - **Pricing Stage**: Butadiene is currently in the supply - demand pricing stage, with a low correlation with the raw material end [7]. - **Capacity Expansion**: To support the expansion of downstream industries such as ABS, SBS, styrene - butadiene, and cis - butadiene rubber, butadiene capacity is continuously expanding, and the expansion speed and amplitude are slightly faster than those of downstream industries at certain stages [9]. - **New Capacity**: In 2024, a total of 380,000 tons of new capacity was put into operation, and in 2025, a total of 860,000 tons of new capacity is expected to be put into operation, mainly through the C4 extraction process [11]. - **Supply - side - Operating Rate**: The operating rate of the butadiene industry remains at a high level year - on - year, and weekly production is high. Some enterprises have maintenance plans, which will affect production to some extent [13][14][15]. - **Net Imports**: The report provides data on butadiene imports, exports, and net imports, but does not make a specific analysis of the trend [16]. - **Demand - side - Capacity of Cis - Butadiene and Styrene - Butadiene Rubber**: The capacity of cis - butadiene and styrene - butadiene rubber is also expanding, with new projects being put into operation in different regions [17][18][19]. - **Demand - side - Operating and Maintenance of Cis - Butadiene and Styrene - Butadiene Rubber**: The operating rates of cis - butadiene and styrene - butadiene rubber show different trends, and some enterprises have maintenance and production adjustment plans [22][23][24]. - **Demand - side - Capacity of ABS and SBS**: The capacity of ABS and SBS is also increasing, with significant capacity increments in 2024 and 2025 [25][26][27][28]. - **Demand - side - Fundamentals of ABS and SBS**: The operating rate, profit, inventory, and capacity utilization rate of ABS and SBS show different trends, reflecting the market supply - demand relationship [29][30]. - **Inventory - side**: Butadiene producer inventories are increasing, while port inventories are slightly decreasing [31][32][33]. 3. Synthetic Rubber Fundamentals - **Cis - Butadiene Rubber - Supply - Production**: The weekly production of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber shows different trends in different years, and the operating rate remains at a certain level [38]. - **Cis - Butadiene Rubber - Supply - Cost and Profit**: The theoretical production cost, profit, and gross profit margin of cis - butadiene rubber show different trends over time [40][41][42]. - **Cis - Butadiene Rubber - Supply - Import and Export**: The monthly import and export volumes of cis - butadiene rubber show different trends in different years [43][44]. - **Cis - Butadiene Rubber - Supply - Inventory**: The weekly enterprise inventory, futures inventory, and trader inventory of cis - butadiene rubber show different trends [47][48]. - **Cis - Butadiene Rubber - Demand - Tires**: The inventory and operating rate of domestic tires (full - steel and semi - steel) show different trends, reflecting the demand for cis - butadiene rubber in the tire industry [51][52].
合成橡胶市场周报-20250704
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-04 09:10
Group 1: Report Summary - Strategy suggestion: The short-term price of the br2508 contract is expected to fluctuate between 11,000 and 11,500 [7] - Market review: This week, the spot price of domestic butadiene rubber was weakly consolidating, with the Shandong market spot price fluctuating between 11,200 and 11,700 yuan/ton. The ex-factory prices of high-cis butadiene rubber of Sinopec and PetroChina sales companies were stable. As of July 3, 2025, the mainstream ex-factory price of high-cis butadiene rubber in China was between 11,700 and 11,800 yuan/ton [8] - Market outlook: Affected by the weak raw material market and continuous shipment pressure, industry players are cautiously waiting and watching. Driven by the high inventory reduction of individual production enterprises, the overall inventory of domestic butadiene rubber enterprises decreased slightly this week. However, the shipment pressure of downstream enterprises remains high, and the inventories of production enterprises and trading enterprises are expected to increase slightly. In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased week-on-week this week. Some semi-steel tire enterprises had maintenance arrangements for 4 - 11 days, and some enterprises operated at reduced loads, significantly dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate. Most tire enterprises maintained stable production schedules, and individual enterprises had maintenance arrangements for 4 - 5 days, resulting in a slight decline in capacity utilization rate. Next week, as enterprise maintenance gradually ends and production resumes, it will drive up the overall capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises [8] Group 2: Futures Market - Price trend: This week, the price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract fluctuated and closed flat, with a weekly change of +0% [12] - Position analysis: Not detailed in the provided content - Inter - month spread: As of July 4, the spread between the 8th and 9th contracts of butadiene rubber was 75 [19] - Warehouse receipts: As of July 4, the butadiene rubber warehouse receipts were 700 tons, unchanged from last week [22] Group 3: Spot Market - Spot price: As of July 3, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 11,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from last week [27] - Basis: As of July 3, the basis of butadiene rubber was 315 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton from last week [27] Group 4: Upstream Market - Naphtha and ethylene prices: As of July 3, the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was reported at 577.38 US dollars/ton, an increase of 9.26 US dollars/ton from last week; the CIF mid - price of Northeast Asian ethylene was reported at 850 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week [30] - Butadiene capacity utilization and inventory: As of July 4, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 70.91%, an increase of 1.2% from last week; the port inventory of butadiene was 22,330 tons, a decrease of 5,120 tons from last week [33] Group 5: Industry Situation - Production and capacity utilization: In June 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber production was 122,500 tons, a decrease of 16,900 tons from the previous month. As of July 3, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic butadiene rubber was 66.98%, an increase of 0.18% from last week [36] - Production profit: As of July 3, the domestic butadiene rubber production profit was - 164 yuan/ton, an increase of 414 yuan/ton from last week [39] - Inventory: As of July 4, the domestic butadiene rubber social inventory was 33,100 tons, a decrease of 870 tons from last week; the manufacturer inventory was 26,350 tons, a decrease of 1,300 tons from last week; the trader inventory was 6,800 tons, an increase of 430 tons from last week [42] Group 6: Downstream Market - Tire capacity utilization: As of July 3, the capacity utilization rate of domestic semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.13%, a week - on - week decrease of 6.27 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 15.85 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.53%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.70 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.96 percentage points [45] - Tire export: In May 2025, China's tire export volume was 758,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.87% and a year - on - year increase of 11.48%. From January to May, China's cumulative tire export volume was 3.4042 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.18%. Among them, the export volume of passenger car tires was 289,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.23% and a year - on - year increase of 8.33%. From January to May, the cumulative export volume of passenger car tires was 1.3353 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.94%. The export volume of truck and bus tires was 437,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.74% and a year - on - year increase of 12.93%. From January to May, the cumulative export volume of truck and bus tires was 1.9275 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.85% [48]
永安合成橡胶早报-20250704
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-04 02:39
Report Information - Report Title: Yongan Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Research Center's Energy and Chemicals Team [3] - Report Date: July 4, 2025 [3] Key Data Summary BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Price and Volume**: The closing price of the main contract on July 3 was 11,185, down 75 from the previous day and 10 from the previous week. The trading volume was 105,416, an increase of 15,541 from the previous day and a decrease of 2,914 from the previous week. The open interest was 28,760, an increase of 871 from the previous day and a decrease of 7,623 from the previous week [4]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of butadiene rubber (BR) and the spread between different months showed various changes. For example, the 7 - 8 month spread was 125 on July 3, down 25 from the previous day but up 5 from the previous week [4]. - **Market Price**: The Shandong market price remained at 11,500 on July 3, unchanged from the previous day but down 50 from the previous week. The Chuanhua market price was 11,300, down 50 from the previous day and 50 from the previous week [4]. - **Processing and Trade Profits**: The spot processing profit was 324 on July 3, an increase of 77 from the previous day and 409 from the previous week. The import profit was -83,792, a decrease of 45 from the previous day [4]. BD (Butadiene) - **Price and Volume**: The Shandong market price on July 3 was 8,800, down 75 from the previous day and 450 from the previous week. The Jiangsu market price was 8,850, down 100 from the previous day and 400 from the previous week [4]. - **Processing and Trade Profits**: The carbon four extraction profit was not available on July 3. The butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was -454, a decrease of 170 from the previous day and 400 from the previous week [4]. Downstream Profits - **Production Profits**: The production profits of downstream products such as butadiene styrene rubber (SBR), acrylonitrile - butadiene - styrene (ABS), and styrene - butadiene - styrene (SBS) showed positive trends. For example, the SBR production profit was 788 on July 3, an increase of 175 from the previous day [4]. Spread - **Inter - and Intra - Product Spreads**: Different spreads between products and within the same product category changed. For example, the RU - BR spread was -14,745 on July 3, a decrease of 981 from the previous day but an increase of 7,598 from the previous week [4].
永安合成橡胶早报-20250703
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-03 02:13
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report No explicit core view is presented in the provided text. The report mainly presents a series of data on the synthetic rubber market, including prices, trading volumes, positions, and profit margins. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Price and Position Data**: On July 2, the closing price of the main contract was 11,260, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 35. The position of the main contract was 27,889, a daily increase of 478. The trading volume was 89,875, a daily decrease of 2,622 and a weekly increase of 52,061. The warehouse receipt quantity was 7,700, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 1,070 [4]. - **Basis and Spread**: The butadiene - styrene basis was 640 on July 2, a daily decrease of 50 and a weekly decrease of 35. The 7 - 8 spread was 150, with no daily or weekly change. The 8 - 9 spread was 82, a daily decrease of 15 and a weekly increase of 5 [4]. - **Market Prices**: The Shandong market price was 11,500 on July 2, a daily decrease of 50 and a weekly decrease of 50. The Chuanhua market price remained at 11,350, and the Qilu ex - factory price remained at 11,700 [4]. - **Processing and Import - Export Profits**: The spot processing profit was 248 on July 2, a daily increase of 282 and a weekly increase of 486. The futures processing profit was 8, a daily increase of 332 and a weekly increase of 571. The import profit was - 83,741, a daily decrease of 66 and a weekly increase of 103. The export profit was - 267, a daily increase of 45 and a weekly increase of 207 [4]. b. BD (Butadiene) - **Market Prices**: The Shandong market price on July 2 was 8,875, a daily decrease of 325 and a weekly decrease of 525. The Jiangsu market price was 8,950, a daily decrease of 200 and a weekly decrease of 400. The Yangzi ex - factory price remained at 9,200, with a weekly decrease of 400 [4]. - **Processing and Import - Export Profits**: The carbon - four extraction profit decreased from 2,790 to 2,116. The butene oxidation - dehydrogenation profit was - 284 on July 2, a daily decrease of 200 and a weekly decrease of 50. The import profit was - 121, a daily decrease of 121 and a weekly decrease of 224. The export profit was - 267, a daily increase of 45 and a weekly increase of 207 [4]. c. Downstream Profits - The butadiene - styrene production profit remained at 613 on July 2, with a weekly increase of 350. The SBS (791 - H) production profit was 840, with a weekly increase of 340 [4]. d. Inter - Variety Spreads - The RU - BR spread was - 13,764 on July 2, a daily decrease of 448 and a weekly decrease of 19,911. The NR - BR spread was - 15,614, a daily decrease of 513 and a weekly decrease of 19,801. The Thai mixed - butadiene spread was 2,450, a daily increase of 50 and a weekly increase of 300 [4]. e. Intra - Variety Spreads - The butadiene - styrene 1502 - 1712 spread was 1,100 on July 2, a daily decrease of 50 and no weekly change [4].