1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - No clear core view is presented in the given content. It mainly provides data on the synthetic rubber market, including prices, positions, trading volumes, and profit margins. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Prices**: The closing price of the main contract on October 20 was 10,840, a daily decrease of 85 and a weekly decrease of 55. The Shandong market price remained unchanged at 11,050 compared to the previous day, with a weekly increase of 100. The Qilu factory price remained at 11,200 [3]. - **Positions and Trading Volumes**: The position of the main contract on October 20 was 74,828, a daily increase of 57,827 and a weekly increase of 50,360. The trading volume was 101,950, a daily increase of 44,923 and a weekly increase of 41,695 [3]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of warehouse receipts on October 20 was 8,640, a daily and weekly decrease of 110 [3]. - **Profit Margins**: The spot processing profit was 53, and the on - screen processing profit was - 158. The import profit was - 79,579, and the export profit was 242 [3]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis and spread data, such as the 10 - 11 month spread, showed various changes. The 10 - 11 month spread on October 20 was 200, a daily decrease of 90 and a weekly increase of 425 [3]. 3.2 BD (Butadiene) - **Prices**: The Shandong market price on October 20 was 8,625. The Jiangsu market price was 8,500, a daily decrease of 50 and a weekly increase of 50. The Yangzi factory price remained at 8,600 [3]. - **Profit Margins**: The carbon tetrachloride extraction profit was 1,885, and the butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was - 104. The import profit was not available, and the export profit was - 851 [3]. - **Downstream Profits**: The production profit of butadiene - based products such as ABS, SBS (791 - H) also showed different changes. For example, the ABS production profit was - 33, a daily decrease of 142 and a weekly decrease of 129 [3]. 3.3 Variety Spreads - **Inter - Variety Spreads**: The spreads between different rubber varieties, such as RU - BR, NR - BR, Thai mixed - butadiene rubber, and 3L - styrene - butadiene rubber, showed different trends. For example, the RU - BR spread on October 20 was - 60,018, a daily decrease of 57,712 and a weekly decrease of 50,445 [3]. - **Intra - Variety Spreads**: The spreads within the same rubber variety, such as the difference between standard and non - standard butadiene rubber, and the difference between styrene - butadiene rubber 1502 and 1712, also changed. For example, the difference between standard and non - standard butadiene rubber on October 20 was 350, a daily increase of 50 and a weekly increase of 20 [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the holiday, both raw material and synthetic rubber prices declined. In the spot market, transactions were generally at low prices. With the downward trend of spot prices, the inventory of trading enterprises decreased. After the price dropped to a relatively low level, as the liquidity of the spot market improved, the active participation of downstream buyers is expected to drive down the spot inventory [2]. - In terms of demand, most enterprises that had maintenance during the holiday resumed production as planned, and the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises increased significantly. However, the overall market showed no obvious improvement. To control inventory growth, some enterprises were still in a state of flexible production control. It is expected that the operation of enterprise equipment will be stable in the short - term. The short - term fluctuation range of the br2512 contract is expected to be between 10,800 - 11,300 [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber was 200 yuan/ton, and the position of the main contract was 72,808 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,020 [2]. - The 12 - 1 spread of synthetic rubber was 5 yuan/ton, and the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber was 3,050 tons, a decrease of 20 [2]. 2. Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong was 11,050 yuan/ton, unchanged; that from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong was 11,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [2]. - The mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai was 11,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; that from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong was 11,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton [2]. - The basis of synthetic rubber was 10 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 [2]. 3. Upstream Situation - Brent crude oil was 61.01 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 0.28; WTI crude oil was 57.52 US dollars/barrel, unchanged [2]. - Naphtha CFR Japan was 537 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 8.5; Northeast Asian ethylene price was 1,000 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 [2]. - The intermediate price of butadiene CFR China was 780 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 10; the market price of butadiene in the Shandong market was 8,625 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The weekly capacity of butadiene was 15.53 million tons/week, a decrease of 0.01; the weekly capacity utilization rate was 65.79%, a decrease of 1.58 [2]. - The port inventory of butadiene was 3,050 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 50.28%, a decrease of 0.15 [2]. 4. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber was 13.04 million tons, a decrease of 0.53; the weekly capacity utilization rate was 74.82%, an increase of 8.41 [2]. - The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was 184 yuan/ton; the weekly social inventory was 3.28 million tons, an increase of 0.05 [2]. - The weekly ending inventory of manufacturers of cis - butadiene rubber was 1,300 tons; the weekly ending inventory of traders was 4,860 tons, a decrease of 840 [2]. - The weekly operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 72.72%, an increase of 13.65; the weekly operating rate of domestic all - steel tires was 64.52%, an increase of 17.46 [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 110,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 13.14 million pieces, an increase of 2.19 million [2]. - The weekly ending inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong was 39.95 days, a decrease of 0.08; the weekly ending inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong was 45.17 days, a decrease of 0.53 [2]. 5. Industry News - As of October 16, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.07%, a month - on - month increase of 28.92 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.57 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.96%, a month - on - month increase of 22.43 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.98 percentage points. Most enterprises' capacity utilization rates have returned to pre - holiday levels [2]. - In September 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 105,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber), a month - on - month increase of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 82%. From January to September, the cumulative sales volume exceeded 821,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 20% [2]. - In September 2025, the output and capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber both slightly declined. The capacity utilization rate was 69.91%, a decrease of 0.49 percentage points from the previous period and an increase of 12.16 percentage points compared with the same period last year [2]. 6. Output Forecast - Most previously maintained cis - butadiene rubber units have restarted, and domestic output has increased. Although there are expectations of maintenance for some units such as Qilu, Yangzi, and Zhejiang Petrochemical, some units have restarted. Maoming Petrochemical and Yulong Petrochemical have increased production, and the overall output is expected to increase month - on - month [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoint - There is no clear core viewpoint explicitly stated in the provided content. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Price and Trading Volume Indicators**: The closing price of the main contract on 10/17 was 10,925, a daily decrease of 210 and a weekly increase of 145. The open interest of the main contract was 17,001, with a daily decrease of 1,410 and a weekly decrease of 12,074. The trading volume of the main contract was 57,027, a daily decrease of 19,877 and a weekly decrease of 7,984. The warrant quantity remained unchanged at 8,750 [3]. - **Basis and Spread**: The butadiene basis was 125 on 10/17, a daily increase of 210 and a weekly decrease of 145. The 10 - 11 month spread was 290, a daily increase of 345 and a weekly increase of 400. The 11 - 12 month spread was 100, a daily increase of 15 and a weekly increase of 65 [3]. - **Market Prices**: The Shandong market price was 11,050, unchanged from the previous day and week. The Transfar market price was 10,900, unchanged from the previous day and a weekly increase of 100. The Qilu ex - factory price was 11,200, unchanged [3]. - **Processing and Import - Export Profits**: The spot processing profit was 53, a daily increase of 26 and a weekly decrease of 26. The on - disk processing profit was - 73, a daily decrease of 182 and a weekly increase of 120. The import profit was - 79,618, a daily increase of 4 and a weekly increase of 184. The export profit was 424, unchanged from the previous day and a weekly decrease of 21 [3]. 3.2 BD (Butadiene) - **Market Prices**: The Shandong market price on 10/17 was 8,622, a daily decrease of 25. The Jiangsu market price was 8,550, unchanged from the previous day and a weekly increase of 100. The Yangzi ex - factory price was 8,600, unchanged [3]. - **Processing and Import - Export Profits**: The carbon - four extraction profit data was incomplete. The butylene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was - 124, unchanged from the previous day and a weekly increase of 100. The import profit was 350, a daily increase of 81 and a weekly increase of 278. The export profit was - 892, a daily decrease of 72 and a weekly decrease of 529 [3]. - **Downstream Profits**: The butadiene - styrene production profit was 750, with incomplete daily data and a weekly decrease of 175. The ABS production profit data was incomplete. The SBS production profit (791 - H) was 760, a daily increase of 30 and a weekly increase of 30 [3]. 3.3 Variety - to - Variety Spreads - **BR - Related Spreads**: The RU - BR spread was - 2,306 on 10/17, a daily increase of 1,205 and a weekly increase of 11,924. The NR - BR spread was - 4,776, a daily increase of 1,320 and a weekly increase of 12,309 [3]. - **Other Spreads**: The Thai mixed - butadiene rubber spread was 3,500, a daily decrease of 130 and a weekly increase of 100. The 3L - butadiene - styrene spread was 3,400, a daily decrease of 100 and a weekly decrease of 50 [3]. 3.4 Intra - Variety Spreads - The butadiene standard - non - standard price spread was 300 on 10/17, a daily increase of 50 and a weekly decrease of 100. The butadiene - styrene 1502 - 1712 spread was 950, unchanged from the previous day and a weekly decrease of 50 [3].

率明显提升，但整体市场表现未见明显转好，为控制库存增加，部分企业仍处灵活控产状态，预计短期企 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 业装置运行平稳为主。br2512合约短线预计在10600-11300区间波动。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 合成橡胶产业日报 2025-10-20 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 最新 | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) 10840 -85 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) 74828 | | 57827 | | | 合成橡胶12 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on butadiene rubber is "oscillation", and the trading strategy suggests a unilateral "oscillatory upward" trend and an arbitrage strategy of "long BR, short NR/RU" [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of butadiene provide some support, and the profit has improved. The valuation of cis - butadiene rubber has recently been repaired. However, attention should still be paid to the impact of changes in production start - up and inventory clearance progress on the spot trading rhythm [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - This cycle, Sinopec's high - cis butadiene rubber price was cumulatively reduced by 300 yuan/ton, and PetroChina's main sales companies reduced the price by 500 yuan/ton. The cost situation of cis - butadiene rubber has slightly improved. Due to device maintenance, Sinopec's short - and medium - term circulation resources are expected to decrease. Affected by macro news and downstream price - pressing purchases, the spot negotiation price has declined. At the end of the cycle, the price of the cis - butadiene rubber futures and spot markets rebounded rapidly [7]. 3.2 Supply and Demand Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - Last week, China's butadiene production was 102,200 tons (-2.36%), with a capacity utilization rate of 65.79%; high - cis butadiene rubber production was 30,000 tons (0.18%), with a capacity utilization rate of 74.82%. Multiple butadiene and butadiene rubber plants were in a state of maintenance, shutdown, or restart, affecting production volume [3]. 3.2.2 Demand - The capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.07%, a month - on - month increase of 28.92 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.57 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.96%, a month - on - month increase of 22.43 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.98 percentage points. Most enterprises' capacity utilization rates have returned to pre - holiday levels, but there are differences in shipment performance [3]. 3.3 Inventory Analysis - Last week, the butadiene port inventory was 308,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.99%; the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber enterprises and traders was 32,760 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.42%. There is concern about the inventory increase due to the arrival of ocean - going vessels and sufficient expected imports in October [3]. 3.4 Price and Spread Analysis - The BR cross - variety spread and month - to - month spread, as well as the seasonality analysis of RU - BR, NR - BR, and BR - SC, are presented in the report. The RU - BR spread was 3,770 yuan/ton (-7.94%), the NR - BR spread was 1,300 yuan/ton (15.04%), and the BR - SC ratio was 0.52% [3][12]. 3.5 Cost and Profit Analysis - The production gross profit of butadiene by oxidative dehydrogenation was - 124 yuan/ton, and by C4 extraction was 1,816.55 yuan/ton. The production gross profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 158 yuan/ton, with a gross profit margin of - 1.39% [3]. 3.6 Device Operation Analysis - Multiple butadiene and butadiene rubber plants are in different states of operation, maintenance, or shutdown. For example, many butadiene plants such as Nanjing Chengzhi and Sierbang are in a shutdown state, and some butadiene rubber plants like Qilu Petrochemical and Yangzi Petrochemical are under maintenance [3][11].

Report Overview - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Weekly Report - Report Date: October 19, 2025 - Report Author: Yang Honghan - Report Institution: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report Core Views - **Synthetic Rubber**: Short - term shock operation. The fundamentals of butadiene and cis - butadiene rubber are under pressure, with supply growth outpacing demand growth. However, the valuation is neutral to low, and with many important macro - events, prices are expected to fluctuate [2][4][5]. - **Butadiene**: In the short - term, supply and demand both increase, inventory is neutral, and it will operate in a shock pattern. In the medium - to - long - term, supply pressure is the main contradiction, and the fundamentals are still under significant pressure, expected to be in a weak pattern [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Synthetic Rubber Views Supply - This week, some cis - butadiene rubber plants restarted, while others stopped for maintenance. The production of high - cis butadiene rubber was 30,000 tons, a 0.18% increase from last week, and the capacity utilization rate was 74.82%, up 0.13 percentage points. In the next period, there are no new plant restarts or shutdowns, but centralized maintenance will increase significantly at the end of October [4]. Demand - **Rigid Demand**: The capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises is expected to fluctuate slightly. Some enterprises are still flexibly controlling production to manage inventory. - **Substitute Demand**: The NR - BR main contract spread remains high, so the overall demand for butadiene rubber maintains a high year - on - year growth rate. Inventory - As of October 15, 2025, the inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 32,800 tons, a 1.42% increase from the previous period. After the holiday, raw material and synthetic rubber prices declined, and sample trade enterprise inventories decreased [4]. Valuation - The static valuation range of cis - butadiene rubber futures is 10,400 - 11,300 yuan/ton, and the dynamic valuation is expected to gradually decline. The upper valuation limit of the market is 11,200 - 11,300 yuan/ton, and the lower theoretical valuation limit is 10,400 - 10,500 yuan/ton [4]. Strategy - **Single - side**: Implement range strategies based on the fundamental static valuation. The upper pressure is 11,200 - 11,300 yuan/ton, and the lower support is 10,400 - 10,500 yuan/ton. - **Cross - variety**: When the NR - BR spread is at a high valuation, short the spread when it is high [5]. 3.2 Butadiene Views Supply - This week, domestic butadiene production decreased to 102,200 tons, a 2.39% decline, and the capacity utilization rate was 65.79%, down 1.58%. Next week, the sample enterprise production is expected to be about 103,800 tons, a slight increase [7]. Demand - **Synthetic Rubber**: The operating rates of cis - butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber remain high, and the demand for butadiene maintains a high year - on - year level. - **ABS**: Inventory pressure is high, and the demand for butadiene is expected to remain constant with limited incremental demand. - **SBS**: The operating rate has slightly increased, and the demand for butadiene remains at a rigid level [9]. Inventory - In the period from October 9 - 15, 2025, the total inventory of domestic butadiene samples increased slightly, with a 3.49% increase from last week. The enterprise inventory decreased by 3.23%, and the port inventory increased by 10.99% [9]. View - In the short - term, supply and demand both increase, inventory is neutral, and it will operate in a shock pattern. In the medium - to - long - term, supply pressure is the main contradiction, and the fundamentals are still under significant pressure, expected to be in a weak pattern [7]. 3.3 Industry Capacity and Production Butadiene Capacity - To match the expansion of downstream industries, butadiene capacity has been continuously expanding, with the speed and amplitude slightly faster than that of downstream industries at certain stages. In 2024, the new capacity was 380,000 tons, and in 2025, it is expected to be 860,000 tons [14][16]. Downstream Product Capacity - **Cis - Butadiene Rubber**: Many enterprises have new or expanded production capacity, such as Zhejiang Petrochemical, Zhejiang Transfar Group, etc. - **Styrene - Butadiene Rubber**: Some enterprises in different regions have planned new production capacity in 2026, such as Guangxi Petrochemical and Yanshan Petrochemical [23][24]. - **ABS and SBS**: There has been significant capacity expansion in recent years. In 2024, the ABS capacity increased by 2.06 million tons, and in 2025, it is expected to increase by 1.5 million tons. For SBS, the capacity increased by 160,000 tons in 2024 and is expected to increase by 250,000 tons in 2025 [35].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View of the Report - Next week, there is a risk of increased volatility in global major asset classes. Investors are advised to maintain a strategic allocation to precious metals such as gold and be relatively cautious about risk assets like equities, waiting and seeing. In the medium - term of the fourth quarter, the basic allocation view of equities > commodities > bonds is still held, and attention can be paid to potential buying opportunities for equity assets after the turmoil subsides [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance Summary - **Financial Market**: In the stock index futures, technology events catalyze the active growth style; the market turnover of index options slightly declines; the bond market of treasury bond futures remains weak. For example, the current price of CSI 300 futures is 4,590 with a daily increase of 0.30%, and the 2 - year treasury bond futures price is 102.362 with a daily decrease of 0.02% [2][7] - **Commodity Market**: Precious metals like COMEX gold and silver have significant increases, with COMEX gold rising 1.57% daily and COMEX silver rising 4.69% daily. In the energy sector, NYMEX WTI crude oil and ICE Brent oil have daily increases of 0.27% and 0.31% respectively, but have declined this year. In the agricultural products sector, CBOT soybeans and other varieties show different trends [2] - **Shipping Market**: The freight rate of container shipping to Europe is under pressure, with a monthly decline of 3.37% [3] Macro - situation Analysis - **Overseas Macro**: Next week, attention should be paid to new tariff threats from Trump and the marginal changes in the US government shutdown. There is a risk of conflict escalation before the APEC meeting at the end of October. If the US government shutdown exceeds 30 days, it will increase the recession risk [6] - **Domestic Macro**: China will gradually enter the period of focusing on the "15th Five - Year Plan" and tracking incremental policies. The progress and effectiveness of a batch of incremental policies such as 500 billion new policy - based financial instruments are worthy of follow - up [6] Asset Views - **Short - term**: Maintain a strategic allocation to precious metals such as gold, and be cautious about risk assets like equities next week [6] - **Medium - term (Fourth Quarter)**: Hold the basic allocation view of equities > commodities > bonds, and pay attention to potential buying opportunities for equity assets after the turmoil [6] View Highlights - **Financial**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in shock, index options to fluctuate, and treasury bond futures to oscillate [7] - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to rise in shock [7] - **Shipping**: Container shipping to Europe is expected to fluctuate [7] - **Black Building Materials**: Most varieties such as steel, iron ore, coke, etc. are expected to oscillate [7] - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Most non - ferrous metal varieties are expected to oscillate, and aluminum is expected to rise in shock [7] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Most varieties are expected to decline in shock, and some varieties such as asphalt and high - sulfur fuel oil are expected to oscillate [9] - **Agriculture**: Most varieties are expected to oscillate, and some varieties such as sugar and paper pulp are expected to decline in shock [9]

Report Title - Synthetic Rubber Data Daily Report [3] Report Date - October 15, 2025 [4] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On October 14, the domestic butadiene market fluctuated slightly. The previous low prices attracted better trading, prompting some suppliers to raise prices. However, due to the weak performance of major downstream products, the market buying sentiment remained cautious, and the slightly higher price quotes had poor trading, which limited the upward range of the market [4]. - The capacity utilization rate of China's high - cis butadiene rubber was 78.99%, a 1.41 - percentage - point increase from the previous working day. The theoretical production profit of butadiene rubber was a small loss of 157 yuan/ton [4]. - Although the short - term shutdown of an upstream device in Shandong affected the market in the morning, the impact was considered limited in the afternoon. The butadiene end had a large amount of external resources and good trading performance. The downstream remained on the sidelines due to trade frictions and the slightly weak natural rubber market [4]. - Considering that the trading center of private resources was significantly lower than the current ex - factory prices of Sinopec and PetroChina, some industry players were cautiously waiting for the price policy adjustment of Sinopec and PetroChina [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Conditions - **Futures Market**: The closing price of BR2511.SHF was 10,920 yuan/ton, down 1.28%; the settlement price was 10,825 yuan/ton, down 1.01%. The trading volume was 65,011, down 42.59%; the open interest was 29,075, down 9.18% [4]. - **Spot Market**: The delivered price in the central Shandong region was around 8,550 - 8,650 yuan/ton, and the ex - tank self - pick - up price in East China was around 8,200 - 8,300 yuan/ton. The market prices in Hangzhou, Jiangsu, and Shandong all decreased [4]. - **Crude Oil Market**: WTI was at 57.84 US dollars/barrel, down 5.24%; Brent was at 62.09 US dollars/barrel, down 4.81% [4]. Production and Profit - **Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 78.99% [4]. - **Production Profit**: The theoretical production profit of butadiene rubber was - 157 yuan/ton [4]. Market Sentiment and Strategy - **Market Sentiment**: Trade frictions and the weak natural rubber market made downstream players cautious. Some players were waiting for the price policy adjustment of Sinopec and PetroChina [4]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral: BR was in a consolidation operation; Arbitrage: After the spread widened again, pay attention to going long on BR and short on RU or NR [4].

据韩国《经济新闻》10月8日报道，韩国金融信息企业8日预测称，由于美国市场对卫生手套需求恢 复、天然橡胶供应链不畅、高附加值产品销量增加等，合成橡胶产品销售增长势头将持续至明年。今年 上半年，锦湖化学合成橡胶产品销售额为1.43万亿韩元，同比增加10%，在总销售额中占比为58.3%， 在韩国合成橡胶市场占有率上升至59%。随着下半年业绩上升，锦湖化学今年全年营业利润预估值为 3537亿韩元，同比增长29.6%，明年将进一步扩大至4333亿韩元。 （原标题：韩国锦湖化学合成橡胶产品销量大增） ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The output of domestic synthetic rubber is expected to increase month - on - month as most previously overhauled cis - butadiene rubber plants have restarted, and some plants are operating at increased loads. The br2512 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,600 - 11,250 yuan/ton in the short term [2]. - In terms of raw materials, although there are planned overhauls of butadiene plants in October, the supply of butadiene remains abundant due to the resumption of previously under - loaded plants and imports. In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased significantly during the holiday due to maintenance, but it is expected to rise significantly this week as the plants resume operation [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main synthetic rubber contract was 10,780 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan; the open interest of the main contract was 29,075, down 2,938; the 10 - 11 spread of synthetic rubber was - 110 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber was 3,070 tons, up 200 tons [2]. - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from different manufacturers decreased, with the price from齐鲁石化 at 11,150 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; from 大庆石化 at 11,100 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; and from 茂名石化 at 11,200 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. The basis of synthetic rubber was 370 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan [2]. Spot Market - Brent crude oil was at $63.32 per barrel, up $0.59; WTI crude oil was at $59.49 per barrel, up $0.59; the Northeast Asian ethylene price was $785 per ton, unchanged; the CFR Japan naphtha price was $566.75 per ton, down $10; the CFR China butadiene intermediate price was $1,020 per ton, unchanged; the mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market was 8,600 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The weekly butadiene production capacity was 155,400 tons, up 100 tons; the butadiene capacity utilization rate was 67.37%, up 0.72 percentage points; the port inventory of butadiene was 27,750 tons, unchanged [2]. - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber was 135,700 tons, up 6,500 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber was 66.41%, down 3.31 percentage points; the production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 544 yuan/ton, up 114 yuan; the social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 32,300 tons, down 1,400 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 55.26%, down 18.32 percentage points; the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic all - steel tires was 50.87%, down 14.85 percentage points [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.03 million pieces, up 280,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 58.06 million pieces, up 1.09 million pieces; the inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 39.87 days, up 0.36 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 45.7 days, down 0.23 days [2]. Industry News - From October 9th, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises decreased significantly compared with the previous period and the same period last year, and the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises also decreased. Some enterprises carried out maintenance during the holiday, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate [2]. - In September 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market reached about 105,000 vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 82%. From January to September, the cumulative sales volume exceeded 800,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 20% [2]. - In September 2025, the output and capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber decreased slightly. The capacity utilization rate was 69.91%, down 0.49 percentage points from the previous period and up 12.16 percentage points from the same period last year [2].