投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 【合成橡胶投资周报】 节前成交走弱，BD/BR涨幅放缓 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-1-5 国贸期货研究院：叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 国贸期货研究院：施宇龙 从业资格证号：F03137502 ⚫ 具体来看，本周期山东市场顺丁橡胶价格进一步走高，现货价格区间在10600-11300元/吨。本周期国内顺丁橡胶供应延续高位水平，驱动供价及市场价格上涨的因素主要源于业者对次年1月丁 二烯去库将压缩顺丁橡胶生产利润的预期、丁二烯对韩出口商谈成交消息导致近期成本面底部支撑增强，以及市场对次年1月降准降息的宏观面利好预期带动。周内合成橡胶期货盘面持续震荡 走强的同时，现货端商谈重心逐步上移，套利商仍对贴水450元/吨以上民营顺丁橡胶资源具有较强购买意愿，而终端买盘跟进缓慢，且品牌间绝对价差明显导致中间商两油资源成交表现不佳。 丁二烯橡胶：节前成交走弱，B D/ B R涨幅放缓 ⚫ 截止2025年12月25日，中石化化销B ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【合成橡胶投资周报】 情绪提振预期先行，BD/BR大幅上扬 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-12-29 国贸期货研究院：叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 国贸期货研究院：施宇龙 从业资格证号：F03137502 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 丁二烯橡胶：情绪提振预期先行，B D/ B R大幅上扬 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 11 25 0 70 61 3 08 0 76 （1）上周国内丁二烯产量 万吨（ 09% ），产能利用率为 %；高顺顺丁产量 万吨（ 67% ），产能利用率为 77 %； | | 供给 | 偏空 | （2）丁二烯方面，周内南京诚志、斯尔邦、燕山石化、上海石化一套、茂名石化2#、中化泉州石化等装置维持停车状态，东明装置临时短停后重启，产 | | | | 量略有增加；顺丁橡胶方面，除茂名石化与独山子石化装置停车外，其他顺丁橡胶装置负荷处于高位水平，供应延续充足局面。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on synthetic rubber is bullish [2]. 2. Core View of the Report - The demand for domestic and overseas tires is decent, and the low - price synthetic rubber triggers a substitution effect. The current spread between synthetic rubber and natural rubber has reached a historical low, and there is limited room for the unilateral price of synthetic rubber and the spread between rubber types to continue falling. The BR on the futures market is in a low - valuation range [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - As of December 11, 2025, the ex - factory price of Sinopec's BR9000 was 10,600 yuan/ton, and that of PetroChina's BR9000 was between 10,600 - 10,700 yuan/ton. During the reporting period, the production and capacity utilization rate of high - cis butadiene rubber in China decreased slightly due to the maintenance of plants. The rising spot price of butadiene provided some bottom support for the price of butadiene rubber. Affected by external news such as the conflict between Thailand and Cambodia and the US interest rate cut in the natural rubber market, the low - price offer of the butadiene market gradually increased. However, the spot market had sufficient supply and high theoretical production profit, so downstream buyers resisted high - price offers, and middlemen faced pressure in selling [4]. 3.2 Factors Affecting Butadiene Rubber 3.2.1 Supply - Last week, the domestic butadiene production was [unspecified] tons with a capacity utilization rate of [unspecified]%, and the high - cis butadiene rubber production was [unspecified] tons with a capacity utilization rate of [unspecified]%. In the butadiene segment, plants of Nanjing Chengzhi, Sierbang, Yanshan Petrochemical, and Guangzhou Petrochemical remained shut down, and some plants of Shanghai Petrochemical, Maoming Petrochemical, and Sinochem Quanzhou Petrochemical carried out maintenance, leading to a decline in production. In the butadiene rubber segment, Yulong Petrochemical restarted production, and the supply of high - cis butadiene rubber in China remained sufficient [2]. 3.2.2 Demand - In the semi - steel tire market, trading was dull, and prices were weak. Some enterprises offered discounts to boost purchases, but the effect was limited as demand was flat, and agents mainly digested existing inventories and postponed replenishment. In the all - steel tire market, the market was cold, and it was the off - season. The trading volume further weakened, with the southern region performing better than the northern region. Sales in many southern regions decreased by about 15%, and some areas in the northwest and northeast saw a sharp decline. Agents had sufficient inventories and low purchasing enthusiasm [2]. 3.2.3 Inventory - Last week, the butadiene port inventory was 411,000 tons, a 13.11% week - on - week decrease; the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber enterprises and traders was 323,300 tons, a 0.34% week - on - week decrease. The enterprise inventory of butadiene decreased by 8.22% week - on - week, and the port inventory decreased by 12.65% week - on - week. For butadiene rubber, due to continuous price - pressing by downstream buyers, the production enterprise inventory increased, while the trading enterprise inventory decreased slightly [2]. 3.2.4 Basis - The basis of butadiene rubber in North China was - 670 yuan/ton, in East China was - 520 yuan/ton, and in South China was - 470 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2.5 Spread/Price Ratio - The RU - BR spread was 4,510 yuan/ton (a 3.11% decrease), the NR - BR spread was 1,610 yuan/ton (a 1.53% decrease), and the BR - SC price ratio was 0.77% [2]. 3.2.6 Profit - The production gross profit of butadiene through oxidative dehydrogenation was - 1,764 yuan/ton, and that through C4 extraction was 202.23 yuan/ton. The production gross profit of butadiene rubber was 787 yuan/ton, with a gross profit margin of 8.02% [2]. 3.2.7 Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Factors - The IEA raised the global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 and narrowed the supply surplus forecast slightly. OPEC+ slightly increased crude oil production in November and maintained the global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 and 2026. The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy, efforts to stabilize the real estate market, and the implementation of a special consumption - boosting action. The Fed cut interest rates in December, and the expectation of further rate cuts increased. The conflict between Thailand and Cambodia reignited, and the impact of weather disturbances declined [2]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: No specific strategy. Arbitrage: Pay attention to going long on BR and short on NR/RU. Key risks to monitor include downstream demand, cost changes, plant maintenance, and geopolitical situations [2]. 3.4 Price Data - The report provides detailed price data of synthetic rubber, natural rubber, and related products, including ex - factory prices, market prices, and their daily and weekly changes [6][7]. 3.5 Plant Maintenance Data - The report lists the maintenance data of butadiene and high - cis butadiene rubber plants in China in 2025, including the production enterprises, maintenance capacities, shutdown times, and startup times [9]. 3.6 Market Seasonal Charts - The report presents multiple seasonal charts, such as the BR spread and basis seasonal charts, butadiene price seasonal charts (domestic and international), production and inventory seasonal charts of butadiene, butadiene rubber, and styrene - butadiene rubber, as well as production, start - up, and inventory seasonal charts of downstream products like tires and conveyor belts [10][26][31]

国贸期货研究院：叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 国贸期货研究院：施宇龙 从业资格证号：F03137502 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 丁二烯橡胶：丁二烯出口预期增强，B R挺价后阶段性回落 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | （1）上周国内丁二烯产量 11 22 万吨（ -0 80% ），产能利用率为 70 4 %；高顺顺丁产量 2 95 万吨（ 4 76% ），产能利用率为 73 53 %； | | 供给 | 偏空 | （2）丁二烯方面，周内南京诚志、斯尔邦、燕山石化、广州石化等装置维持停车状态，上海石化一套、茂名石化2#以及中化泉州石化装置陆续停车检修， | | | | 影响产量环比下降；顺丁橡胶方面，茂名石化及裕龙石化顺丁橡胶装置检修，预计本周产量及产能利用率略下降，然现货端供应充足局面延续。 | | | | （1）半钢胎市场，本周期月份交替，市场交投表现弱势。四季胎市场弱稳运行，月底代理商依照任务量有补货需求，渠道走货一般；雪地胎 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【合成橡胶投资周报】 主流供价大幅下调，BR维持低位震荡运行 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-12-1 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 11 31 -2 16% 70 97 2 82 -3 37% 70 19 （1）上周国内丁二烯产量 万吨（ ），产能利用率为 %；高顺顺丁产量 万吨（ ），产能利用率为 %； | . | | | 供给 | 中性 | （2）丁二烯方面，周内南京诚志、斯尔邦、燕山石化、广州石化等装置维持停车状态，上海石化一套、茂名石化2#以及中化泉州石化装置陆续停车检修， | | | | | | 同时盛虹炼化降负，影响产量环比下降；顺丁橡胶方面，茂名石化顺丁装置常规检修，振华新材料、浙江石化顺丁橡胶装置重启后预计逐步恢复产出。 | | | | | | （1）半钢胎市场，周期内半钢雪地胎市场成交一般，社会库存充足，降雪天气稀少，需求无明显提升，渠道库存消化缓慢，补货意愿较低；四季胎方面， | | | | 需求 | 中性 | 整体交投延续平淡为主，市场需求 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【合成橡胶投资周报】 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-11-24 国贸期货研究院：叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 国贸期货研究院：施宇龙 从业资格证号：F03137502 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 丁二烯橡胶：宏观利好预期支撑，胶价试探性稳步抬升 宏观利好预期支撑，胶价试探性稳步抬升 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | （1）上周国内丁二烯产量 11 56 万吨（ 1 75% ），产能利用率为 72 53 %；高顺顺丁产量 2 92 万吨（ 3 88% ），产能利用率为 72 64 %； | | 供给 | 中性 | （2）丁二烯方面，周内南京诚志、斯尔邦、燕山石化、广州石化、镇海炼化等装置维持停车状态，其余装置暂无新的明显变化，广西石化稳定释放产量， | | | | 影响总产量仍有增加；顺丁橡胶方面，振华新材料高顺顺丁橡胶装置重启，浙江石化顺丁橡胶装置停车检修，茂名石化顺丁装置预计下周 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【合成橡胶投资周报】 顺丁装置开工修复，主流供价逐步抬升 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-11-17 国贸期货研究院：叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 国贸期货研究院：施宇龙 从业资格证号：F03137502 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 丁二烯橡胶：顺丁装置开工修复，主流供价逐步抬升 资料来源：Wind、钢联、国贸期货研究院 ⚫ 截止2025年11月13日，中石化化销BR9000出厂价格在10300元/吨，中石油主要销售公司BR9000出厂价格在10300-10400元/吨。 ⚫ 本周期原料丁二烯端止跌反弹，成本面支撑逐步走强提振顺丁市场交投重心上移；供应面上，扬子石化顺丁橡胶装置重启、四川石化重启后负荷逐步提升，国内顺丁橡胶产量及产能利用率恢 复性提升。现货市场多数两油品牌资源短时难有低价货源补充，且本月结算均价较高预期影响下两油开单户多大幅挺价观望，但溢价过大导致难有成交跟进，而民营资源价格仍显著低于两油 资源价格，但商谈重心逐步提升至万元附 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the synthetic rubber industry is bearish [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recently, frequent macro - news disturbances have led to a significant decline in butadiene prices, deepening the market's pessimistic sentiment and causing a sharp drop in futures prices. Attention should be paid to the spot price adjustment rhythm and the price guidance of natural rubber [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - As of October 30, 2025, the ex - factory price of Sinopec's BR9000 was 11,000 yuan/ton, and that of PetroChina's main sales companies was 11,000 - 11,100 yuan/ton. Although the natural rubber market was strong this period, it failed to drive the butadiene rubber market, and the price difference between the two varieties widened to over 4,000 yuan/ton. The increase in external sales resources of raw materials and the continuous decline in the external market price led to a rapid rise in market bearish sentiment. Affected by the maintenance of Qilu and Yangzi's butadiene rubber plants and future maintenance expectations, the offers of some spot - tight brands in Sinopec and PetroChina and in East and South China were firm, but the rapid weakening of the cost side led to a further decline in the negotiation focus of private resources. The supply prices of Sinopec and PetroChina's butadiene rubber were under pressure to be lowered, but the large price difference between brands was not significantly improved, and the low - price range transactions in the week gradually weakened. At the end of the period, affected by the news of the Fed's interest rate cut and the Sino - US leaders' meeting, the macro - level partially alleviated the market's bearish sentiment, but it had limited impact on boosting the spot market trading of butadiene rubber [5] 3.2 Price Data - **Butadiene (BD)**: The prices of butadiene from various manufacturers and in different markets showed a downward trend. For example, the ex - factory price of Dalian Hengli decreased by 8.06% week - on - week, and the price of Sinopec East China Yangzi decreased by 12.79% week - on - week [9] - **Butadiene Rubber (BR)**: The ex - factory prices of Sinopec and PetroChina's BR9000 decreased by 1.79% week - on - week. The market prices in different regions also generally declined, with the largest week - on - week decline of 3.69% in North China [8][9] - **Styrene - Butadiene Rubber (SBR)**: The ex - factory and market prices of SBR also decreased. For example, the ex - factory price of Sinopec North China Qilu 1502 decreased by 1.75% week - on - week [9] 3.3 Device Maintenance - **Butadiene Devices**: Many butadiene devices in China were under maintenance or shutdown in 2025. For example, Nanjing Chengzhi, Sierbang, and Yanshan Petrochemical's devices were shut down, while some devices such as those of Beifang Huajin and Qilu Petrochemical resumed production [3][11] - **Butadiene Rubber Devices**: Some butadiene rubber devices were under maintenance or had future maintenance plans. For example, Yangzi Petrochemical and Zhejiang Petrochemical's butadiene rubber devices were under maintenance, and Zhenhua New Materials' device was expected to be under maintenance in November [3][11] 3.4 Influencing Factors - **Supply**: The supply of butadiene and butadiene rubber was affected by device operations. The output of butadiene increased due to the resumption of some devices, while the output of butadiene rubber was affected by device maintenance [3] - **Demand**: The demand for semi - steel tires was mixed, with the replacement market for all - season tires being weak and the demand for snow tires growing. The demand for all - steel tires was generally weak, with low replenishment willingness from channel merchants [3] - **Inventory**: The butadiene port inventory increased, while the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber in enterprises and traders decreased [3] - **Basis**: The basis of butadiene rubber in North, East, and South China was neutral [3] - **Spread/Price Ratio**: The spreads between RU - BR, NR - BR, and the BR - SC ratio were bullish [3] - **Profit**: The production profits of butadiene and butadiene rubber were bearish [3] - **Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Factors**: The 4th Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee clarified the development goals and key tasks for the 14th Five - Year Plan. The Sino - US leaders' meeting in Busan achieved positive progress, and the sanctions on two Russian refineries by Europe and the United States and India's re - planning of energy procurement plans had a neutral impact on the market [3] 3.5 Trading Strategies - **Single - sided Trading**: No trading strategy was recommended [3] - **Arbitrage Trading**: Attention should be paid to the strategy of going long on BR and short on NR/RU [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on butadiene rubber is "oscillation", and the trading strategy suggests a unilateral "oscillatory upward" trend and an arbitrage strategy of "long BR, short NR/RU" [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of butadiene provide some support, and the profit has improved. The valuation of cis - butadiene rubber has recently been repaired. However, attention should still be paid to the impact of changes in production start - up and inventory clearance progress on the spot trading rhythm [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - This cycle, Sinopec's high - cis butadiene rubber price was cumulatively reduced by 300 yuan/ton, and PetroChina's main sales companies reduced the price by 500 yuan/ton. The cost situation of cis - butadiene rubber has slightly improved. Due to device maintenance, Sinopec's short - and medium - term circulation resources are expected to decrease. Affected by macro news and downstream price - pressing purchases, the spot negotiation price has declined. At the end of the cycle, the price of the cis - butadiene rubber futures and spot markets rebounded rapidly [7]. 3.2 Supply and Demand Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - Last week, China's butadiene production was 102,200 tons (-2.36%), with a capacity utilization rate of 65.79%; high - cis butadiene rubber production was 30,000 tons (0.18%), with a capacity utilization rate of 74.82%. Multiple butadiene and butadiene rubber plants were in a state of maintenance, shutdown, or restart, affecting production volume [3]. 3.2.2 Demand - The capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.07%, a month - on - month increase of 28.92 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.57 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.96%, a month - on - month increase of 22.43 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.98 percentage points. Most enterprises' capacity utilization rates have returned to pre - holiday levels, but there are differences in shipment performance [3]. 3.3 Inventory Analysis - Last week, the butadiene port inventory was 308,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.99%; the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber enterprises and traders was 32,760 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.42%. There is concern about the inventory increase due to the arrival of ocean - going vessels and sufficient expected imports in October [3]. 3.4 Price and Spread Analysis - The BR cross - variety spread and month - to - month spread, as well as the seasonality analysis of RU - BR, NR - BR, and BR - SC, are presented in the report. The RU - BR spread was 3,770 yuan/ton (-7.94%), the NR - BR spread was 1,300 yuan/ton (15.04%), and the BR - SC ratio was 0.52% [3][12]. 3.5 Cost and Profit Analysis - The production gross profit of butadiene by oxidative dehydrogenation was - 124 yuan/ton, and by C4 extraction was 1,816.55 yuan/ton. The production gross profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 158 yuan/ton, with a gross profit margin of - 1.39% [3]. 3.6 Device Operation Analysis - Multiple butadiene and butadiene rubber plants are in different states of operation, maintenance, or shutdown. For example, many butadiene plants such as Nanjing Chengzhi and Sierbang are in a shutdown state, and some butadiene rubber plants like Qilu Petrochemical and Yangzi Petrochemical are under maintenance [3][11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the synthetic rubber industry is "oscillating bearish" [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic butadiene market has weakened slightly, and cis - butadiene rubber has been suppressed by macro - sentiment, with price support faltering. Under the pressure of high inventory and high production capacity utilization, the synthetic rubber market is expected to be bearish in the short term. In terms of valuation, the correlation between the BR futures contract and NR has increased, showing stronger rubber - related attributes [2] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - **Butadiene**: Last week, domestic butadiene production was 104,700 tons (up 1.08%), with a capacity utilization rate of 67.37%. Some plants such as Nanjing Chengzhi, Sierbang, and Yanshan Petrochemical remained shut down, while some others like Sinopec Korea Wuhan and Fujian United restarted, leading to a slight increase in domestic production [2] - **Cis - butadiene rubber**: Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene rubber plant had a short - term shutdown for maintenance, while Shandong Yihua and Shandong Weite's plants restarted. Domestic private cis - butadiene rubber production increased [2][3] 3.2 Demand - **Semi - steel tires**: During the "Double Festival" holiday, private car travel increased, boosting terminal demand. Terminal stores' shipments increased significantly, and channel goods circulation improved. The market transaction price remained stable during the period [2] - **All - steel tires**: Due to the holiday, most merchants had short - term vacations, resulting in a decrease in channel trading volume. Most merchants focused on inventory digestion, and restocking was postponed. Terminal demand was weak [2] 3.3 Inventory - **Butadiene**: Last week, butadiene port inventory was 27,750 tons, with no change from the previous week. Refinery inventory decreased, and port inventory increased due to the arrival of ocean - going vessels, but there was no obvious short - term inventory pressure [2] - **Cis - butadiene rubber**: The inventory of sample production enterprises slightly increased, while that of sample trading enterprises decreased [2] 3.4 Price - **Cis - butadiene rubber**: Sinopec Chemical Marketing and PetroChina's sales companies lowered the ex - factory price of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber by 500 yuan/ton. As of October 11, 2025, the mainstream ex - factory price in China was 11,200 - 11,300 yuan/ton [2][3] - **Butadiene**: The price of butadiene continued its weak trend, with the ex - factory price and market price showing a downward trend [2][3][7] 3.5 Cost and Profit - **Butadiene**: The production profit of butadiene oxidation dehydrogenation was - 194 yuan/ton, and the production profit of C4 extraction was 1,765.83 yuan/ton [2] - **Cis - butadiene rubber**: The production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 364 yuan/ton, with a gross profit margin of - 3.15% [2] 3.6 Trading Strategies - **Single - side trading**: Oscillating upward - **Arbitrage**: Pay attention to the strategy of going long on BR and short on NR/RU. Risks to watch include downstream demand, cost changes, plant maintenance, and geopolitical factors [2]