投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【合成橡胶投资周报】 节后累库成交乏力，BR震荡偏弱运行 行情回顾 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2026-3-2 国贸期货研究院：叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 国贸期货研究院（助理分析师）：施宇龙 从业资格证号：F03137502 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 丁二烯橡胶：节后累库成交乏力，B R震荡偏弱运行 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏空 | 12 15 1 27% 76 25 3 28 -0 35% 81 74 （1）上周国内丁二烯产量 万吨（ ），产能利用率为 %；高顺顺丁产量 万吨（ ），产能利用率为 %； | | | | （2）丁二烯方面，周内南京诚志、斯尔邦、燕山石化等装置维持停车状态，中化泉州石化、海南炼化装置陆续重启，影响周产量环比提升；顺丁橡胶方 | | | | 面，茂名石化顺丁装置且华北部分降负民营装置负荷提升，扬子顺丁短停预计重启，产能利用率提升至高位水平。 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【合成橡胶投资周报】 节前成交转弱，BR震荡下行 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2026-2-9 国贸期货研究院：叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 国贸期货研究院（助理分析师）：施宇龙 从业资格证号：F03137502 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 丁二烯橡胶：节前成交转弱，B R震荡下行 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏空 | 11 65 2 61% 73 12 3 17 3 25% 78 86 （1）上周国内丁二烯产量 万吨（ ），产能利用率为 %；高顺顺丁产量 万吨（ ），产能利用率为 %； | | | | （2）丁二烯方面，周内南京诚志、斯尔邦、燕山石化等装置维持停车状态，中化泉州石化、海南炼化装置陆续重启，影响周产量环比提升；顺丁橡胶方 | | | | 面，茂名石化顺丁装置且华北部分降负民营装置负荷提升，扬子顺丁短停预计重启，产能利用率提升至高位水平。 | | | | （1）半钢胎 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for butadiene rubber is "oscillating with a bullish bias" [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Butadiene has strong fundamental support, while cis - butadiene rubber faces profit and inventory pressures, and the number of warehouse receipts is increasing. With high bullish sentiment from macro and capital factors, both futures and spot prices are rising. Before the Spring Festival, there is an expectation of reduced production at cis - butadiene plants, and trading volume among traders and downstream users is decreasing. In the short - term, the futures price is expected to oscillate widely in the range of 12,800 - 13,300 yuan/ton, and in the long - term, the price of synthetic rubber is expected to rise further [4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - This week, the price of cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market rose significantly and then oscillated at a high level, with the spot price ranging from 12,300 to 13,100 yuan/ton. The increase was mainly due to the tight supply and rising prices of overseas butadiene resources, as well as the positive commodity market atmosphere. However, downstream users showed resistance to high prices, and the production of some northern private cis - butadiene rubber plants was reduced due to losses. Overall, the domestic production volume changed little [6] 3.2 Influence Factors of Butadiene Rubber 3.2.1 Supply - Last week, the domestic butadiene production was [unspecified] tons, with a capacity utilization rate of [unspecified]%; the production of high - cis butadiene rubber was [unspecified] tons, with a capacity utilization rate of [unspecified]%. Some butadiene plants remained shut down, while some restarted, and the weekly production increased. For cis - butadiene rubber, the plant of Maoming Petrochemical restarted, but attention should be paid to the operating load of private plants in North China due to poor profitability [4] 3.2.2 Demand - For semi - steel tires, agents made small - scale purchases at the end of the month, but the sales in the distribution channels and at the terminal were weak, inventory consumption was slow, and social inventory increased. For all - steel tires, the market remained sluggish in the second half of the month, with weak sales in distribution channels and at the terminal. Merchants focused on collecting payments, and the promotional policies of some brands were ineffective. Downstream users were cautious about purchasing and mostly postponed their procurement until after the festival [4] 3.2.3 Inventory - Last week, the port inventory of butadiene was 40,500 tons, a 17.39% increase from the previous week; the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber among enterprises and traders was 34,430 tons, a 2.74% decrease from the previous week. The port inventory of butadiene increased due to the arrival of imported ships, while the inventory of cis - butadiene rubber at production enterprises decreased due to production losses and reduced operating loads, and the inventory of trading enterprises increased slightly [4] 3.2.4 Basis - The basis of cis - butadiene rubber in North China was - 890 yuan/ton, in East China was - 790 yuan/ton, and in South China was - 790 yuan/ton [4] 3.2.5 Spread/Price Ratio - The spread between RU and BR was 2,970 yuan/ton; the spread between NR and BR was - 155 yuan/ton; the price ratio of BR to SC was - 0.41% [4] 3.2.6 Profit - The production profit of butadiene through oxidative dehydrogenation was 1,918 yuan/ton, and through C4 extraction was 3,512.64 yuan/ton. The production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 418 yuan/ton, with a gross profit margin of - 3.12% [4] 3.2.7 Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Factors - Last week, the EIA crude oil inventory in the US increased by 3.6 million barrels more than expected, and the IEA maintained its expectation of a loose crude oil supply in 2026. Sinopec and China National Aviation Fuel Group were restructured. Tensions in the Middle East and the Russia - Ukraine region escalated due to the US's attack on Iran. The natural gas price soared by 60% due to the cold wave, and oil and gas prices rose in the short - term. Incidents such as the Trump administration's attempt to occupy Greenland and seize Russian oil tankers also increased market panic about geopolitics [4] 3.3 Trading Strategies - For single - sided trading, the strategy is mainly to buy on dips and follow the market and capital trends. For arbitrage, the strategy is to go long on BR and short on NR/RU [4] 3.4 Correlation Analysis of Related Varieties of Synthetic Rubber - The report provides correlation coefficient heat maps of price trends for crude oil, synthetic rubber, and natural rubber - related varieties over 1 - month and 3 - month periods, showing the relationships between different varieties [11] 3.5 Device Status - The report lists the maintenance and shutdown status of butadiene plants and high - cis butadiene rubber plants in China in 2026, including production enterprises, maintenance capacity, shutdown time, and expected startup time [12][13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term: The report gives a rating of "oscillating" for the short - term investment in the synthetic rubber industry, and "long - term bullish" for the long - term [4]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of butadiene are strong, while the "high - start, high - inventory" situation of butadiene rubber continues. The number of warehouse receipts on the futures market has increased, and the recent futures volume and price have increased simultaneously. In the short term, the large increase in BR, combined with risk premiums, will lead to a phased adjustment of the futures market. In December, the export volume of synthetic rubber is expected to continue to increase, and the import volume of butadiene will decrease month - on - month. With long - term positive expectations, the price of synthetic rubber is expected to have further upward space [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - During this period, the price of butadiene rubber in the Shandong market fluctuated strongly, and the spot price range moved up to 11,500 - 12,200 yuan/ton. The butadiene end continued to rise due to good domestic demand and rumors of butadiene export transactions, causing a significant increase in the production cost of butadiene rubber. On the supply side, the capacity utilization rate of domestic butadiene rubber remained high, and most brand spot resources were sufficient. The pressure on the supply side affected the upward movement of the negotiation center. The mainstream supply price of butadiene rubber increased slightly during the week, and the theoretical production profit turned into a loss. Traders actively tried to raise prices, but the downstream terminal procurement was negative and the price - pressing was firm. Although the spot price center gradually moved up, the transaction performance was poor [6]. 3.2 Impact Factors 3.2.1 Supply - Last week, the domestic butadiene production was [missing data] tons (72%), with a capacity utilization rate of 69.37%; the high - cis butadiene rubber production was [missing data] tons (68%), with a capacity utilization rate of 79%. In terms of butadiene, Fujian United Petrochemical (180,000 tons) restarted on the 15th, and Hainan Refining & Chemical (130,000 tons) is expected to shut down at the end of the month. The butadiene production is expected to maintain a downward trend. In terms of butadiene rubber, except for the shutdown of the plants of Maoming Petrochemical and Dushanzi Petrochemical, the loads of other butadiene rubber plants are at a high level. The butadiene rubber plant of Maoming Petrochemical is expected to restart at the end of the month, and the supply will continue to be sufficient [4]. 3.2.2 Demand - For semi - steel tires, in the first ten days of the month, the market sales became increasingly sluggish, the terminal demand weakened, the channel transactions were sporadic, and the replenishment willingness continued to decrease. The factories launched a certain range of promotions this month, but the market has not yet had a clear guidance. For all - steel tires, in the first ten days of the month, the stocking willingness was low. Some merchants rushed to complete the annual task volume last month, and the inventory expanded significantly, weakening the ability to continuously purchase. Although some factories have clearly announced the profit - sharing policy for January, the inventory during the period is large, and the existing inventory is mainly digested. Some replenishment willingness is postponed to the middle or late ten days of the month [4]. 3.2.3 Inventory - Last week, the butadiene port inventory was 44,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.99%. The inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber enterprises + traders was 34,940 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.50%. In terms of butadiene, although the high - price transactions of refineries were slightly slow, affecting the slow inventory reduction, there was no obvious inventory pressure overall. The arrival of imported ships was limited during the week, and the downstream raw material inventory was normally consumed. Although the market is expected to be strong in the later period, it is in the inventory reduction cycle. In terms of butadiene rubber, the inventories of production enterprises and trading enterprises have increased to varying degrees, and the warehouse receipts have increased significantly [4]. 3.2.4 Basis - The basis of butadiene rubber in North China is - 365 yuan/ton, in East China is - 265 yuan/ton, and in South China is - 215 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2.5 Spread/Price Ratio - The spread between RU - BR is 4,020 yuan/ton (12%); the spread between NR - BR is 930 yuan/ton (- 0.53%); the price ratio of BR - SC is - 0.35% [4]. 3.2.6 Profit - The production gross profit of butadiene oxidative dehydrogenation is 990 yuan/ton; the production gross profit of C4 extraction is 2,680.31 yuan/ton. The production gross profit of butadiene rubber is - 237 yuan/ton, and the gross profit margin is - 1.92% [4]. 3.2.7 Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Factors - China's CPI year - on - year growth rate in December 2025 reached the fastest in nearly three years; the US ADP employment data in December showed that labor demand was still weak. The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council announced that, with the approval of the State Council, Sinopec and China National Aviation Fuel will implement a restructuring. Iran is implementing a national - scale network control, which is related to continuous protests in many places. Trump arrested Maduro and summoned enterprises such as ExxonMobil and Chevron to the White House to discuss the oil investment plan in Venezuela. The Trump administration's attempt to occupy Greenland and seize Russian oil tankers has fermented again, triggering market panic about geopolitics [4]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Appropriately leave a long position, and be vigilant against the risk of capital profit - taking and callback. Arbitrage: Pay attention to going long on BR and short on NR/RU. Key factors to watch: downstream demand, cost changes, plant maintenance conditions, and geopolitics [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the synthetic rubber industry is "Bullish" [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The upward sentiment in industrial products supports the bullish logic for synthetic rubber. The narrowing spread between synthetic and natural rubber has a driving force for further regression. Against the backdrop of the elimination of backward petrochemical production capacity and overseas cracking units, coupled with strong cost - side support and inventory reduction in the current fundamentals, there is still upward potential for the unilateral price of BR [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - As of December 25, 2025, the ex - factory price of Sinopec's BR9000 was 11,100 yuan/ton, and that of PetroChina's sales companies was between 11,100 - 11,400 yuan/ton. In the Shandong market, the price of cis - butadiene rubber increased, with the spot price ranging from 10,600 - 11,300 yuan/ton. The factors driving the price increase included expectations of reduced production profits due to butadiene inventory reduction in January, strengthened cost support from butadiene export negotiations, and positive macro - level expectations of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts in January [4] 3.2 Price Comparison - In 2026, the ex - factory prices of domestic cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from Sinopec and PetroChina increased by 3.48% week - on - week. Market prices in different regions also showed varying degrees of increase [7] - The prices of butadiene (BD) also increased. For example, the ex - factory price of Dalian Hengli increased by 4.73% week - on - week, and the market price in Hangzhou increased by 6.32% week - on - week [8] 3.3 Correlation Analysis - The price trends of synthetic rubber and related natural rubber varieties show different degrees of correlation. For example, BR has a high positive correlation with RU, NR, and butadiene, and the correlation coefficients vary in different time periods (1 - month and 3 - month) [9] 3.4 Device Status - In 2026, some butadiene production enterprises had maintenance or shutdown plans, such as Nanjing Chengzhi, Sierbang Petrochemical, etc. Some cis - butadiene rubber production enterprises also had equipment outages or future maintenance plans, like Maoming Petrochemical and Dushanzi Petrochemical [10][11] 3.5 Supply and Demand Analysis Supply - For butadiene, the current devices are in a shutdown state, and the output is expected to continue to decline. For cis - butadiene rubber, except for the shutdown of Maoming Petrochemical and Dushanzi Petrochemical, other devices are operating at a high level, and the supply remains sufficient [3] Demand - In the semi - steel tire market, the market turnover has become increasingly sluggish in the early part of the month, with weakening terminal demand and reduced replenishment willingness. In the all - steel tire market, the inventory of some merchants increased significantly last month, and the ability to continuously purchase has weakened. Although some factories have announced profit - sharing policies in January, most are focused on digesting existing inventory, and some replenishment demand is postponed [3] 3.6 Inventory Analysis - The port inventory of butadiene decreased by 7.61% week - on - week, and the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber enterprises and traders decreased by 1.08% week - on - week. Overall, both butadiene and cis - butadiene rubber are in a de - stocking cycle [3] 3.7 Investment and Trading Strategies - Investment view: Bullish. In the medium - to - long term, there is upward potential for the unilateral price of BR [3] - Trading strategy: For unilateral trading, maintain an appropriate long position, but be wary of the risk of profit - taking pullbacks. For arbitrage, focus on going long BR and shorting NR/RU. Key factors to monitor include downstream demand, cost changes, device maintenance, and geopolitical situations [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Short-term investment view on butadiene rubber (BR) is bullish [2] Core Viewpoints - Before the holiday, trading volume weakened, and the upward trend of BD/BR slowed down. Although the actual fundamentals are still weak, with the good overseas and domestic tire demand and the substitution effect triggered by low-priced synthetic rubber, and the plan of DL Chemical to shut down the No. 1 cracking unit of YNCC, the market sentiment is strongly supported [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - As of December 25, 2025, the ex-factory price of Sinopec's BR9000 was 11,100 yuan/ton, and that of PetroChina's sales companies was between 11,100 - 11,400 yuan/ton. The domestic BR supply remained at a high level this period. The factors driving the increase in supply price and market price mainly included the expectation that butadiene destocking in January would compress BR production profit, the news of butadiene export negotiations to South Korea strengthening the cost support, and the expectation of favorable macro policies such as RRR and interest rate cuts in January [3] Supply - Last week, the domestic butadiene production was 112,500 tons (0.09%), with a capacity utilization rate of 70.61%; the production of high-cis butadiene rubber was 30,900 tons (0.86%), with a capacity utilization rate of 76.92%. Some butadiene and BR production units were shut down, but overall, the supply of BR remained sufficient [2] Demand - In the semi-steel tire market, trading was dull, prices were weak, and merchants were cautious in stocking. In the all-steel tire market, demand weakened, prices were chaotic, and merchants were mainly focused on destocking [2] Inventory - Last week, the butadiene port inventory was 43,300 tons, a 20.28% increase from the previous week; the inventory of high-cis butadiene rubber enterprises + traders was 33,480 tons, a 3.07% decrease from the previous week. Butadiene enterprise inventory decreased, while port inventory increased slightly. BR inventory decreased due to downstream price pressure [2] Basis, Spread/Price Ratio, Profit - The basis of BR in North China was -520 yuan/ton, in East China was -420 yuan/ton, and in South China was -370 yuan/ton. The RU - BR spread was 4,085 yuan/ton (-4.00%); the NR - BR spread was 1,105 yuan/ton (-9.43%); the BR - SC price ratio was 0.47%. The production profit of butadiene oxidation dehydrogenation was -294 yuan/ton, and that of C4 extraction was 1,571.67 yuan/ton. The production profit of BR was 348 yuan/ton, with a gross profit margin of 3.12% [2] Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Factors - In December, the PMI rebounded comprehensively, reversing the slowdown trend of the previous two months. The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy. The EU extended economic sanctions against Russia for six months. The US economy grew more than expected, and precious metals and copper reached new highs. The US launched an air strike on Venezuela [2] Investment and Trading Strategies - For investment, maintain a short-term bullish view. For trading, keep a long position appropriately and beware of the risk of capital profit-taking and price correction. Consider the strategy of going long on BR and short on NR/RU. Pay attention to downstream demand, cost changes, unit maintenance, and geopolitical factors [2] Device Maintenance and Operation - Multiple butadiene and BR production units have maintenance plans in 2025 - 2026, which will affect future supply [9][10] Correlation Analysis of Related Varieties - The report provides the correlation coefficient heat maps of price trends of natural rubber-related varieties over 1 and 3 months, showing the relationships between different rubber varieties and other commodities [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term outlook: Bullish on the synthetic rubber industry [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The demand for tires at home and abroad is satisfactory, and the low - price synthetic rubber triggers a substitution effect. DL Chemical's plan to shut down the No. 1 cracking unit of YNCC strongly supports market sentiment. Although the supply prices of BD/BR have risen significantly, the current fundamentals of BD/BR remain weak. Attention should be paid to the news of continued exports of butadiene, the strength changes among rubber varieties, the inventory reduction progress of BD/BR, and the change in the raw material price transmission logic on the supply side [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - As of December 25, 2025, the ex - factory price of Sinopec's BR9000 was 11,100 yuan/ton, and that of PetroChina's sales companies was between 11,100 - 11,400 yuan/ton. In the Shandong market, the price of cis - butadiene rubber continued to rise, with the spot price ranging from 10,600 to 11,300 yuan/ton. The price increase was driven by the expectation of reduced production profit of cis - butadiene rubber due to butadiene inventory reduction in January of the next year, the news of butadiene export transactions to South Korea, and the expected macro - level benefits of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts in January of the next year [4] 3.2 Influencing Factors of Butadiene Rubber 3.2.1 Supply - Last week, China's butadiene production was [missing data] tons (with a change of [missing data]%), and the capacity utilization rate was [missing data]%. The production of high - cis butadiene rubber was [missing data] tons (67%), and the capacity utilization rate was 77%. In the butadiene sector, some plants such as Nanjing Chengzhi, Sierbang, Yanshan Petrochemical, etc., were shut down, and the Dongming plant restarted after a short - term shutdown, with a slight increase in production. In the cis - butadiene rubber sector, except for the plants of Maoming Petrochemical and Dushanzi Petrochemical being shut down, other plants were operating at a high load, and the supply remained sufficient [3] 3.2.2 Demand - In the semi - steel tire market, in the second half of the month, the market transaction remained dull, and the price was weak. The market supply was abundant, and the all - season tires were mainly for inventory reduction. In the all - steel tire market, the demand decreased, and the transaction price was chaotic. Some merchants were reducing inventory and reducing purchases, but the inventory reduction effect was not as expected [3] 3.2.3 Inventory - Last week, the butadiene port inventory was 43,300 tons, a 20.28% month - on - month decrease. The inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber enterprises + traders was 34,540 tons, a 1.56% month - on - month decrease. The enterprise inventory of butadiene decreased by 8.22% month - on - month, and the port inventory decreased by 12.65% month - on - month. In the cis - butadiene rubber sector, the downstream price - pressing led to weak transactions, with an increase in production enterprise inventory and a slight decrease in trading enterprise inventory [3] 3.2.4 Basis - The basis of cis - butadiene rubber in North China was - 835 yuan/ton, in East China was - 735 yuan/ton, and in South China was - 685 yuan/ton [3] 3.2.5 Spread/Ratio - The RU - BR spread was 4,145 yuan/ton (- 0.60%); the NR - BR spread was 1,120 yuan/ton (- 16.42%); the BR - SC ratio was 0.15% [3] 3.2.6 Profit - The production profit of butadiene by oxidative dehydrogenation was - 1,154 yuan/ton, and that by C4 extraction was 1,058.67 yuan/ton. The production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was 457 yuan/ton, with a gross profit margin of 4.21% [3] 3.2.7 Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Factors - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points, increasing the policy rate from 0.5% to 0.75%. The offshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar once exceeded 7, which was beneficial to import enterprises. The US CPI in November increased by 2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 2.6% year - on - year. The UK's CPI data showed that inflation pressure still existed to some extent. China's financial data in November showed that M2 increased by 8.0% year - on - year, and the growth rate of social financing stock remained at 8.5%, indicating weak domestic demand but still policy support [3] 3.3 Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Appropriately maintain long positions, and be vigilant against the risk of profit - taking pullbacks. Arbitrage: Pay attention to going long on BR and short on NR/RU. Key risks to monitor include downstream demand, cost changes, plant maintenance, and geopolitical situations [3] 3.4 Correlation Analysis of Synthetic Rubber - Related Varieties - The report provides correlation coefficient heat maps of price trends of natural rubber - related varieties for 1 - month and 3 - month periods, showing the relationships among crude oil, synthetic rubber, butadiene, cis - butadiene rubber, styrene - butadiene rubber, and other varieties [9] 3.5 Device Status - The report lists the maintenance and shutdown situations of China's butadiene and high - cis butadiene rubber plants in 2025, including production enterprises, maintenance capacities, shutdown times, and startup times [11] 3.6 Price Seasonal Charts and Related Data - The report presents a series of price seasonal charts, including those of cis - butadiene rubber futures and spot prices, butadiene domestic and international prices, and also includes data on production, consumption, inventory, cost, and profit of butadiene and synthetic rubber [22][23][27][28][29][31][34][38] 3.7 Downstream Industry Data - The report provides data on the production, start - up, and inventory of downstream industries such as tires (full - steel and semi - steel tires) and conveyor belts, reflecting the demand situation of the synthetic rubber industry [98][105][112]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on synthetic rubber is bullish [2]. 2. Core View of the Report - The demand for domestic and overseas tires is decent, and the low - price synthetic rubber triggers a substitution effect. The current spread between synthetic rubber and natural rubber has reached a historical low, and there is limited room for the unilateral price of synthetic rubber and the spread between rubber types to continue falling. The BR on the futures market is in a low - valuation range [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - As of December 11, 2025, the ex - factory price of Sinopec's BR9000 was 10,600 yuan/ton, and that of PetroChina's BR9000 was between 10,600 - 10,700 yuan/ton. During the reporting period, the production and capacity utilization rate of high - cis butadiene rubber in China decreased slightly due to the maintenance of plants. The rising spot price of butadiene provided some bottom support for the price of butadiene rubber. Affected by external news such as the conflict between Thailand and Cambodia and the US interest rate cut in the natural rubber market, the low - price offer of the butadiene market gradually increased. However, the spot market had sufficient supply and high theoretical production profit, so downstream buyers resisted high - price offers, and middlemen faced pressure in selling [4]. 3.2 Factors Affecting Butadiene Rubber 3.2.1 Supply - Last week, the domestic butadiene production was [unspecified] tons with a capacity utilization rate of [unspecified]%, and the high - cis butadiene rubber production was [unspecified] tons with a capacity utilization rate of [unspecified]%. In the butadiene segment, plants of Nanjing Chengzhi, Sierbang, Yanshan Petrochemical, and Guangzhou Petrochemical remained shut down, and some plants of Shanghai Petrochemical, Maoming Petrochemical, and Sinochem Quanzhou Petrochemical carried out maintenance, leading to a decline in production. In the butadiene rubber segment, Yulong Petrochemical restarted production, and the supply of high - cis butadiene rubber in China remained sufficient [2]. 3.2.2 Demand - In the semi - steel tire market, trading was dull, and prices were weak. Some enterprises offered discounts to boost purchases, but the effect was limited as demand was flat, and agents mainly digested existing inventories and postponed replenishment. In the all - steel tire market, the market was cold, and it was the off - season. The trading volume further weakened, with the southern region performing better than the northern region. Sales in many southern regions decreased by about 15%, and some areas in the northwest and northeast saw a sharp decline. Agents had sufficient inventories and low purchasing enthusiasm [2]. 3.2.3 Inventory - Last week, the butadiene port inventory was 411,000 tons, a 13.11% week - on - week decrease; the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber enterprises and traders was 323,300 tons, a 0.34% week - on - week decrease. The enterprise inventory of butadiene decreased by 8.22% week - on - week, and the port inventory decreased by 12.65% week - on - week. For butadiene rubber, due to continuous price - pressing by downstream buyers, the production enterprise inventory increased, while the trading enterprise inventory decreased slightly [2]. 3.2.4 Basis - The basis of butadiene rubber in North China was - 670 yuan/ton, in East China was - 520 yuan/ton, and in South China was - 470 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2.5 Spread/Price Ratio - The RU - BR spread was 4,510 yuan/ton (a 3.11% decrease), the NR - BR spread was 1,610 yuan/ton (a 1.53% decrease), and the BR - SC price ratio was 0.77% [2]. 3.2.6 Profit - The production gross profit of butadiene through oxidative dehydrogenation was - 1,764 yuan/ton, and that through C4 extraction was 202.23 yuan/ton. The production gross profit of butadiene rubber was 787 yuan/ton, with a gross profit margin of 8.02% [2]. 3.2.7 Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Factors - The IEA raised the global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 and narrowed the supply surplus forecast slightly. OPEC+ slightly increased crude oil production in November and maintained the global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 and 2026. The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy, efforts to stabilize the real estate market, and the implementation of a special consumption - boosting action. The Fed cut interest rates in December, and the expectation of further rate cuts increased. The conflict between Thailand and Cambodia reignited, and the impact of weather disturbances declined [2]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: No specific strategy. Arbitrage: Pay attention to going long on BR and short on NR/RU. Key risks to monitor include downstream demand, cost changes, plant maintenance, and geopolitical situations [2]. 3.4 Price Data - The report provides detailed price data of synthetic rubber, natural rubber, and related products, including ex - factory prices, market prices, and their daily and weekly changes [6][7]. 3.5 Plant Maintenance Data - The report lists the maintenance data of butadiene and high - cis butadiene rubber plants in China in 2025, including the production enterprises, maintenance capacities, shutdown times, and startup times [9]. 3.6 Market Seasonal Charts - The report presents multiple seasonal charts, such as the BR spread and basis seasonal charts, butadiene price seasonal charts (domestic and international), production and inventory seasonal charts of butadiene, butadiene rubber, and styrene - butadiene rubber, as well as production, start - up, and inventory seasonal charts of downstream products like tires and conveyor belts [10][26][31]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the synthetic rubber industry is neutral. It is suggested that investors adopt a strategy of going long on synthetic rubber and short on natural rubber [3]. Core Viewpoints - The current spread between synthetic and natural rubber has reached a historical low. The space for further decline in the single - sided price of synthetic rubber and the spread between different rubber types is limited. The BR on the futures market is in a low - valuation range [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - As of December 4, 2025, the ex - factory price of Sinopec's BR9000 was 10,600 yuan/ton, and that of PetroChina's BR9000 was between 10,600 - 10,700 yuan/ton. The overall supply of domestic cis - butadiene rubber remained sufficient [4]. 2. Supply Analysis 2.1 Butadiene - Last week, the domestic butadiene production was 112,200 tons (- 0.80%), and the capacity utilization rate was 70.4%. Many butadiene production devices were shut down or under maintenance, leading to a decline in production [3]. 2.2 Cis - Butadiene Rubber - The production of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber was 29,500 tons (4.76%), and the capacity utilization rate was 73.53%. Some cis - butadiene rubber devices were under maintenance, and it is expected that this week's production and capacity utilization rate will slightly decline, but the supply on the spot side will remain sufficient [3]. 3. Demand Analysis 3.1 Semi - steel Tires - In the semi - steel tire market, the market trading was weak during the month - end period. The four - season tire market was weakly stable, and the snow - tire market had sufficient supply but awaited further demand improvement [3]. 3.2 All - steel Tires - In the all - steel tire market, the trading was dull. Affected by the seasonal off - season, the market demand further weakened. With relatively sufficient market supply, the focus was on digesting existing inventories, and the enthusiasm for restocking was average [3]. 4. Inventory Analysis 4.1 Butadiene - Last week, the butadiene port inventory was 41,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 13.11%. The total domestic butadiene inventory declined from a high level, with a week - on - week decrease of 7.41% [3]. 4.2 Cis - Butadiene Rubber - The inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber enterprises and traders was 32,330 tons, a week - on - week increase of - 0.34%. The downstream continuous price - pressing led to weak trading, with an increase in production enterprise inventory and a slight decrease in trading enterprise inventory [3]. 5. Price and Spread Analysis 5.1 Price - The ex - factory prices of BR9000 of Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable. The prices of butadiene, cis - butadiene rubber, and styrene - butadiene rubber also showed different trends [4][8][9]. 5.2 Spread - The RU - BR spread was 4,655 yuan/ton (- 6.81%); the NR - BR spread was 1,635 yuan/ton (- 12.10%); the BR - SC ratio was 0.00% [3]. 6. Profit Analysis - The production gross profit of butadiene by oxidative dehydrogenation was - 1,764 yuan/ton, and that by C4 extraction was 202.23 yuan/ton. The production gross profit of cis - butadiene rubber was 787 yuan/ton, with a gross profit margin of 8.02% [3]. 7. Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Analysis - The US core PCE in September dropped to 2.8%, hitting a three - month low and lower than market expectations. G7 and the EU considered banning Russian oil shipping services. The geopolitical situation between the US and Venezuela was tense. The probability of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates in December increased significantly [3]. 8. Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: None. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the strategy of going long on BR and short on NR/RU [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the butadiene rubber industry is neutral [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The butadiene production has declined, and the output of cis - butadiene rubber is gradually recovering. The cost - side support is insufficient, the mainstream supply price of cis - butadiene rubber has been significantly reduced, the synthetic processing profit is still good, and the futures price is oscillating [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Review - As of November 27, 2025, the ex - factory price of Sinopec's BR9000 was 10,400 yuan/ton, and that of PetroChina's sales companies was between 10,400 - 10,500 yuan/ton. The butadiene market fluctuated narrowly, lacking cost - side support. The production profit of cis - butadiene rubber remained good. The domestic production of cis - butadiene rubber slightly decreased, but the supply of private resources was abundant. The downstream continued to push down prices, and the transaction prices of private resources in North China were suppressed near 10,000 yuan. The supply prices of Sinopec and PetroChina's cis - butadiene rubber were reduced, and high - price quotations gradually declined, with mostly small orders for rigid demand [6] 3.2 Supply - **Butadiene**: Last week, the domestic butadiene production was [data unclear] tons, with a capacity utilization rate of [data unclear]%. During the week, some plants such as Nanjing Chengzhi, Sierbang, Yanshan Petrochemical, and Guangzhou Petrochemical remained shut down, and some plants of Shanghai Petrochemical, Maoming Petrochemical, and Sinochem Quanzhou were shut down for maintenance. Meanwhile, Shenghong Refining & Chemical reduced its load, resulting in a decline in production [3] - **Cis - butadiene rubber**: The Maoming Petrochemical cis - butadiene rubber plant was under regular maintenance, and the cis - butadiene rubber plants of Zhenhua New Materials and Zhejiang Petrochemical were expected to gradually resume production after restarting [3] 3.3 Demand - **Semi - steel tires**: The sales of semi - steel winter tires were average, with sufficient social inventory. Due to less snowfall, demand did not increase significantly, channel inventory digestion was slow, and the replenishment willingness was low. For all - season tires, the overall transaction remained dull, with weak and stable market demand. At the end of the month, agents had some replenishment needs [3] - **All - steel tires**: The market transactions became weaker, affected by the off - season and shortage of working capital. However, due to the pressure of purchase tasks at the end of the month, agents still replenished goods, and also pushed goods to channels to relieve their own inventory pressure. The overall market transaction price decreased steadily, with self - promotion and negotiation room [3] 3.4 Inventory - **Butadiene**: Last week, the port inventory of butadiene was 47,300 tons, a [data unclear]% increase from the previous week. Some plants were under maintenance and reduced load during the week, so the enterprise inventory did not increase significantly. Recently, ship cargoes continued to arrive at the port, and some trade volumes were transferred slowly. The port inventory may remain under pressure in the short term [3] - **Cis - butadiene rubber**: The inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber enterprises and traders was 32,440 tons, a [data unclear]% increase from the previous week. The supply of private resources was sufficient, the downstream was determined to push down prices, the negotiation focus of spot goods continued to be under pressure, and the inventories of production enterprises and trading enterprises both increased [3] 3.5 Basis - The basis of cis - butadiene rubber in North China was - 415 yuan/ton, in East China was - 265 yuan/ton, and in South China was - 215 yuan/ton [3] 3.6 Spread/Price Ratio - The spread between RU - BR was 4,995 yuan/ton ([data unclear]%), the spread between NR - BR was 1,860 yuan/ton ([data unclear]), and the price ratio of BR - SC was - 0.15% [3] 3.7 Profit - The production gross profit of butadiene by oxidative dehydrogenation of butene was - 1,814 yuan/ton, and that by C4 extraction was 587 yuan/ton. The production gross profit of cis - butadiene rubber was 152.08 yuan/ton, with a gross profit margin of 5.98% [3] 3.8 Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Factors - The US non - farm payrolls in September increased by 119,000, far exceeding the market expectation of 50,000, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. The US Department of Labor revised down the non - farm payroll data for July and August. The market was optimistic about the upcoming Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, which dominated the recent oil price trend. The geopolitical situation between the US and Venezuela was tense, and the US military might take land actions. Sino - Japanese relations deteriorated due to the Japanese Prime Minister's remarks on the Taiwan issue, and China took corresponding counter - measures. The floods in Thailand were positive for the rubber price sentiment, but due to high supply and inventory, the increase in the futures price was small [3] 3.9 Investment and Trading Strategies - **Investment view**: Neutral [3] - **Trading strategy**: For unilateral trading, there is no recommendation. For arbitrage, pay attention to going long on BR and shorting NR/RU. Risks to focus on include downstream demand, cost changes, plant maintenance, and geopolitical situations [3]