Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the synthetic rubber industry is "Bearish Oscillation" [3] Core Viewpoint of the Report - International crude oil prices have been declining, and the price of BR (Butadiene Rubber) has been consolidating. The supply of butadiene is affected by various factors such as device shutdowns and restarts, and the demand for rubber tires is relatively stable. The inventory of butadiene and BR has increased, and the profit of the rubber industry is under pressure. Geopolitical factors also have a negative impact on the market. Overall, the market for butadiene rubber is expected to be bearish with oscillations [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - The price of high - cis butadiene rubber of Sinopec and PetroChina sales companies decreased by 300 - 400 yuan/ton this period. As of August 7, 2025, the mainstream ex - factory price of high - cis butadiene rubber in China was 11,500 - 11,600 yuan/ton [4] 2. Supply Analysis - **Butadiene**: Last week, the domestic butadiene production was 102,500 tons (-0.87%), with a capacity utilization rate of 69.76%. Some devices such as Nanjing Chengzhi, Sierbang, Yanshan Petrochemical, and Dongming Petrochemical were shut down, while some devices were restarted. The overall production decreased [3] - **Butadiene Rubber**: In July, some butadiene rubber devices were shut down, and some were restarted. It is expected that the production of butadiene rubber will continue to increase in August [3] 3. Demand Analysis - **Semi - steel Tires**: The replacement market price has no obvious adjustment this period. Some brands launched special - price patterns at the beginning of the month, and the actual market price is stable [3] - **All - steel Tires**: In August, the market price is mostly stable. Some brands planned to raise prices, but other enterprises did not follow up. The economic tire specifications are in short supply, and the inventory of mid - to high - end products is relatively sufficient [3] 4. Inventory Analysis - **Butadiene**: Last week, the port inventory of butadiene was 14,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 41.35%. The overall inventory of enterprises has little fluctuation, and there is no obvious inventory pressure recently [3] - **Butadiene Rubber**: The inventory of sample production enterprises increased, and the inventory of sample trading enterprises decreased slightly this period [3] 5. Basis, Spread/Price Ratio, and Profit Analysis - **Basis**: The basis of butadiene rubber in North China is - 115 yuan/ton, in East China is 35 yuan/ton, and in South China is 35 yuan/ton [3] - **Spread/Price Ratio**: The RU - BR spread is 4,035 yuan/ton (41.33%), the NR - BR spread is 890 yuan/ton (23.61%), and the BR - SC price ratio is 0.97% [3] - **Profit**: The production profit of butadiene oxidation dehydrogenation and carbon four extraction, as well as the production profit and gross profit margin of butadiene rubber, are all under pressure [3] 6. Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Factors - OPEC + plans to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, which leads to a loose supply of crude oil and a weak demand in the refined oil market. International oil and gas prices are oscillating downward. Trump signed an executive order to increase tariffs on Indian goods exported to the US, and the Sino - US tariff negotiation is approaching [3] 7. Investment and Trading Strategies - **Investment Viewpoint**: The maintenance of devices in Shandong and South China has a positive impact on the supply price of butadiene, but the short - term price change is small. The fundamentals of butadiene rubber remain the same, with traders reducing inventory and factories increasing inventory. The overall inventory level changes little, and the market trading volume is average [3] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is expected to be oscillating. For arbitrage, pay attention to the strategy of going long on BR and short on NR/RU. Risks to be concerned about include downstream demand, cost changes, device maintenance, and geopolitical factors [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on butadiene rubber is a bearish oscillation, indicating that the price of butadiene rubber is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term [4]. Core View of the Report - The sentiment has declined, and there are negative factors on the cost side. The price of butadiene rubber (BR) is oscillating at a low level. The supply of butadiene rubber is expected to increase in August, while the demand shows a neutral trend. The inventory and basis show a positive trend, and the profit and geopolitical - macro factors are negative [4]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Review - This week, the price of high - cis butadiene rubber of Sinopec Chemical Sales has been reduced by 400 yuan/ton in total, and that of major sales companies of PetroChina has been reduced by 100 yuan/ton in total. As of July 24, 2025, the mainstream ex - factory price of high - cis butadiene rubber in China is between 11,800 and 12,100 yuan/ton. The market sentiment has changed, and the prices of butadiene rubber, raw material butadiene, and related natural rubber have gradually declined [7]. Supply and Demand Analysis Supply - Last week, the domestic butadiene production was 1.034 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 69.97%. The production of high - cis butadiene rubber was 910,000 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 72.46%. Some butadiene devices were shut down or under maintenance, and the production of butadiene rubber is expected to continue to increase in August [4]. Demand - For semi - steel tires, the replacement market's sales performance has continued the weak trend of last week, and the terminal demand has not improved significantly. For all - steel tires, the market transactions have increased slightly compared with last week, and some brands may raise prices next month [4]. Inventory - Last week, the butadiene port inventory was 104,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 33.76%. The inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber enterprises + traders was 31,320 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.09%. The overall inventory of sample enterprises has limited fluctuations [4]. Basis - The basis of butadiene rubber in North China is - 55 yuan/ton, in East China is 45 yuan/ton, and in South China is 95 yuan/ton. The futures price is higher than the spot price [4]. Spread/Price Ratio - The RU - BR spread is 2,855 yuan/ton (a decrease of 9.72%), the NR - BR spread is - 2,044 yuan/ton (a decrease of 20.44%), and the BR - SC price ratio is 0.94% [4]. Profit - The production gross profit of butadiene by oxidative dehydrogenation is 176 yuan/ton, and that by C4 extraction is 1,988 yuan/ton. The production gross profit of butadiene rubber is - 176 yuan/ton, and the gross profit margin is - 1.47% [4]. Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Factors - The fundamentals of crude oil are continuously loose, the demand in the refined oil market is weak, and the international crude oil price is oscillating downward. The market's optimistic sentiment towards the "anti - involution" policy has weakened, and the premium of the coal chemical and new energy chains has been given back. Trump signed an executive order to impose "reciprocal tariffs" on multiple countries and regions, but the market generally believes that China - US tariffs may ease [4]. Device Information - In 2025, many refineries in China have carried out or planned to carry out device overhauls, including major state - owned refineries and local refineries. Some butadiene and butadiene rubber production devices are also in a state of overhaul or shutdown [12][13]. Price Trend Charts - The report provides various price trend charts, including the price trends of butadiene rubber, butadiene, and other related products, as well as the seasonal charts of prices, production, consumption, and inventory [15][21][32]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral trading: Oscillation; Arbitrage trading: Pay attention to going long on BR and short on NR/RU. Also, pay attention to downstream demand, cost changes, device overhauls, and geopolitical factors [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view for the synthetic rubber industry is "oscillating" [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The reduction of butadiene inventory supports the raw material price of synthetic rubber. However, the overall supply of the cis - butadiene rubber fundamentals remains relatively loose. Although the factory inventory is being depleted smoothly, the inventory of traders continues to accumulate. The market is waiting for an increase in new downstream orders. It is expected that the synthetic rubber will remain in a destocking state in the short - term, and the price will remain stable and show an oscillating upward trend [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - This cycle, Sinopec's ex - factory price of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber decreased by 100 yuan/ton in total, and PetroChina's sales companies' ex - factory prices decreased by 300 yuan/ton in total. As of July 10, 2025, the mainstream ex - factory price of high - cis in China was between 11,400 - 11,600 yuan/ton. The early continuous price - pressing transactions led to a significant market inversion. The price cut at the beginning of the week was in line with market expectations. The spot supply side changed little, the raw material end saw better transactions after the price decline, and the futures market of synthetic rubber quickly strengthened, driving the low - price range of the spot end to rise significantly. However, downstream terminals still maintained price - pressing purchases, and the spot market followed up slowly [4]. 3.2 Supply and Demand Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - **Butadiene**: Last week, the domestic butadiene production was 101,800 tons (- 2.86%), and the capacity utilization rate was 68.89%. Some devices such as Nanjing Chengzhi, Sierbang, Yanshan Petrochemical, Zhejiang Petrochemical 3, and a set of Shanghai Secco remained shut down. Sheng Hong restarted after a short - term shutdown, which affected the production decline [3]. - **Cis - butadiene rubber**: Last week, the production of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber was 26,300 tons (- 2.16%), and the capacity utilization rate was 65.54%. Only a few devices had a slight decline in load this week. Some maintenance devices in North China may restart in the next cycle [3]. 3.2.2 Demand - **Semi - steel tires**: The domestic replacement market was stable during the cycle. The market had regular shipments. The continuous high - temperature weather in many regions slightly boosted the terminal replacement, but the current market inventory was high, and the focus was on digesting the existing inventory. - **All - steel tires**: Similar to the semi - steel tire market, there was no obvious performance yet. Market merchants at all levels were mainly digesting previous inventories. Some brand agents carried out small - scale self - promotions this month according to their own inventory situations. - **Overall situation**: Currently, enterprise production scheduling tends to be stable. There is an expected increase in orders in the middle of the month, which is expected to slightly drive the overall start - up, but the overall fluctuation is expected to be small. The overall market shipment is tepid, the channel supply is sufficient, and the increase in terminal demand is limited. Although the hot weather has driven the downstream market demand to some extent, the overall effect is average [3]. 3.3 Inventory Analysis - **Butadiene**: Last week, the butadiene port inventory was 23,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.69%. The import shipments last week were limited, the downstream raw material inventory was normally consumed, and the recent trading volume was limited, which led to a significant decline in the sample port inventory. The enterprise inventory increased slightly, but there was no overall pressure [3]. - **Cis - butadiene rubber**: Last week, the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber enterprises + traders was 32,770 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.15%. The expected price cut of the supply price, affected by the failure of an upstream device in East China at the butadiene raw material end, led to a slight overall increase in the production enterprise inventory and a slight decrease in the sample trading enterprise inventory [3]. 3.4 Other Factors Analysis 3.4.1 Basis - The basis of cis - butadiene rubber in North China was - 165 yuan/ton, in East China was - 165 yuan/ton, and in South China was - 65 yuan/ton. During the cycle, the futures price oscillated upward, the basis narrowed and remained stable, and the futures price was at a premium to the spot price [3]. 3.4.2 Spread/Price Ratio - The RU - BR spread was 3,090 yuan/ton (12.57%), the NR - BR spread was 955 yuan/ton (25.66%), and the BR - SC price ratio was - 0.32% [3]. 3.4.3 Profit - The production gross profit of butadiene by oxidative dehydrogenation was 66 yuan/ton, and the production gross profit by C4 extraction was 1,750.82 yuan/ton. The production gross profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 276 yuan/ton, and the gross profit rate was - 2.30% [3]. 3.4.4 Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Factors - OPEC maintained its 2025 crude oil demand forecast in its July report, and oil - producing countries continued their production increase progress. The EIA crude oil inventory decreased, but gasoline and diesel inventories increased significantly. The refined oil market was weaker than the crude oil market. China's average annual growth rate of foreign investment exceeded 5%, and the total scale ranked among the top three in the world. Trump's "reciprocal tariff" policy continued, and China's "anti - involution" policy continued to advance [3]. 3.5 Trading Strategies - **Single - side trading**: Oscillating. - **Arbitrage**: Pay attention to going long on BR and short on NR/RU. Also, pay attention to downstream demand, cost changes, device maintenance situations, and geopolitical issues [3].

Report Investment Rating - The investment view for BR is oscillating with a downward bias [2] Core View - Recently, the futures market has been significantly affected by negative news and cost factors, showing a clear downward trend. However, butadiene and the spot market are relatively stable. With downstream rigid - demand procurement leading to inventory reduction, the overall market shows some resilience. It is expected that BR will continue to decline due to cost - side negative factors, and the actual decline will depend on the price adjustment space of the spot market [2] Content Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - During this cycle, the ex - factory prices of high - cis butadiene rubber of Sinopec Chemical Marketing and PetroChina's sales companies remained stable. As of July 3, 2025, the mainstream ex - factory price of high - cis butadiene rubber in China was between 11,700 - 11,800 yuan/ton. In the early and middle of the week, the strengthening of natural rubber and news about China - US economic and trade talks did not provide sustainable support to the butadiene market. The increase in external resources of butadiene and the continuous decline in transaction prices led to a lack of cost support for butadiene rubber. Although there was a shutdown for maintenance at Shandong Yihua's butadiene rubber plant, the overall available spot resources were sufficient. Downstream buyers were waiting for price drops, with negative procurement and firm price - pressing. Driven by weak cost and demand, the synthetic rubber futures market oscillated weakly, and the premium space for arbitrage resources in the spot market gradually narrowed. The trading center of some private resources in the north dropped to 11,200 - 11,300 yuan/ton [3] 2. Supply - Last week, China's butadiene production was 104,800 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 70.91%; high - cis butadiene rubber production was 26,900 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 66.98%. In the short term, domestic butadiene suppliers actively sold their goods externally, and the market supply was relatively abundant. The price decline made downstream buyers cautious, resulting in a weak trading atmosphere. Shandong Yihua's butadiene rubber plant shut down, while the operating load of some private butadiene rubber plants in Shandong increased. Overall, the supply side changed little [2] 3. Demand - In the semi - steel tire market, at the end of June, agents restocked, which slightly increased the sales in the replacement market channels. The sales at terminal stores remained at a normal level. The price policy for the new month remained stable, and there was room for negotiation in actual channel sales, which was tied to the sales target. In the full - steel tire market, the price in the replacement market remained stable. At the end of last month, agents increased their semi - annual purchase tasks, which put some pressure on downstream inventory. Although the circulation of goods in the channels increased, the terminal sales were limited, and the channel inventory increased significantly. In July, manufacturers had no intention to adjust the price policy and would mainly maintain the previous month's prices. The short - term market quotation was expected to remain stable, and there was room for negotiation in actual transactions depending on the agents' inventory [2] 4. Inventory - Last week, the butadiene port inventory was 22,330 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.65%. The inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber enterprises and traders decreased by 2.56% month - on - month. The arrival of imported ships was limited, and the downstream raw material inventory was consumed normally. Although the spot trading atmosphere was sluggish, the tradable volume in the main port tank farms was limited. Traders expected a possible decrease in imports in July and should pay close attention to inventory changes. For butadiene rubber, the decrease in manufacturers' inventory was mainly driven by the reduction of high inventory at individual manufacturers, while the pressure on traders' spot inventory continued [2] 5. Basis - The basis of butadiene rubber in North China was - 25 yuan/ton, in East China was 25 yuan/ton, and in South China was 75 yuan/ton. During the cycle, the futures market oscillated, and the basis remained stable [2] 6. Spread/Ratio - The RU - BR spread was 2,730 yuan/ton (- 1.44%); the NR - BR spread was 820 yuan/ton (- 14.14%); the BR - SC ratio was - 0.12% [2] 7. Profit - The production profit of butadiene through oxidative dehydrogenation was a certain amount per ton, and the production profit of carbon - four extraction was another amount per ton. The production profit of butadiene rubber was a certain amount per ton, with a gross profit margin of 0.28% [2] 8. Macro and Geopolitical Factors - OPEC's eight - country production increase plan in August exceeded expectations, with an expected increase of 548,000 barrels per day, and further production increases were expected at the August meeting. Trump signed a "big and beautiful" tax and expenditure bill at the White House on July 4. The global manufacturing PMI in June was 49.5%, with continuous expansion in Asia. The US was expected to adjust its comprehensive reciprocal tariffs again, and the market had different attitudes towards tariff increases or decreases [2] 9. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Bearish; Arbitrage: Pay attention to going long on BR and short on NR/RU. Risks to focus on include downstream demand, cost changes, plant maintenance, and geopolitical situations [2] 10. Price Information - **Butadiene**: The ex - factory prices of Dalian Hengli and Sinopec East China Yangzi were 8,610 yuan/ton and 8,900 yuan/ton respectively on July 4, with week - on - week decreases of 6.51% and 7.29%. The market prices in Hangzhou, Shandong, and Sinopec North China Qilu also showed varying degrees of decline [6] - **Butadiene Rubber (BR)**: The ex - factory prices of Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable at 11,700 yuan/ton. However, the market prices in North, East, and South China regions decreased to varying degrees [5][6] - **Styrene - Butadiene Rubber (SBR)**: The ex - factory and market prices of some products remained stable, while the prices of some products in the North China market decreased [6] 11. Plant Operation - **Butadiene Plants**: Many butadiene plants had maintenance or shutdown situations in 2024 - 2025, such as Sierbang Petrochemical, Zhongke Petrochemical, etc. [8] - **Butadiene Rubber Plants**: Some plants like Yanshan Petrochemical's high - cis butadiene rubber plant were shut down for maintenance, with plans to restart around July 20. Some other plants were operating normally or with an under - full load [8]