乘联分会秘书长崔东树发文称，2025年4月月末全国乘用车行业库存350万辆，较上月增加15万辆，较 2024年4月增12万辆，形成2025年行业库存持续拉升的特征。目前的政策启动带来厂商的总体乐观，春 节后的生产较高，厂家批发相对积极，行业库存重新建立。4月达到历年4月末的高点。随着5-7月的销 售逐步转入季节性淡季，未来三个月的销量逐步下行。因此根据2025年4月底的库存与未来销量综合预 估的现有库存支撑未来销售天数在57天，相对于2023年4月的55天、2024年4月的52天，今年4月末的总 体库存压力稍有增大。 ...

2025年行将过半。虽然全国经济持续稳中向好，但受内部产业结构深度调整以及全球宏观环境不确定性的影 响，一些行业仍在艰难穿越行业周期，从而影响就业大盘。 但与此同时，还有一些行业则在大幅扩张，员工数量持续增长。这些行业大多代表着未来经济的发力方向， 一些甚至取代互联网成为新的就业蓄水池。 为了能够让大家更敏锐地洞悉未来就业方向和行业发展趋势，前瞻经济学人产业观察组根据申万行业分类盘 点了5392家A股上市公司（截至2024年12月底）的员工总数，测算出了正在疯狂增员的十大行业，有不少行 业出人意料。 01 就业新风口 与上一年相比，十大增员行业发生不小变动，但新能源和半导体仍然是增员的主力军。 | 名次 | 行业 | 员工增幅(%) | 代表企业 | 员工增长数量(人) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 第一名 | 电动乘用车 | 37.7% | 比亚迪 | 265368 | | | | | 赛力斯 | 2736 | | 第二名 半导体设备 | | 27.9% | 北方华创 | 4344 | | 第三名 | 锂 | 13.0% | 赣管锂业 | 1979 | | | | ...

Group 1 - The core index of high-end equipment manufacturing, the CSI High-end Equipment Manufacturing Index, closed at 5678.24 points, down 0.13% with a trading volume of 118.67 billion yuan [1] - Over the past month, the CSI High-end Equipment Manufacturing Index has increased by 4.53%, but it has decreased by 6.29% over the past three months and is down 3.98% year-to-date [2] - The index includes representative companies from sectors such as communication equipment, power equipment, machinery manufacturing, aerospace and defense, electronics, semiconductors, passenger vehicles, and components [2] Group 2 - The top ten weighted companies in the CSI High-end Equipment Manufacturing Index are: CATL (8.68%), BYD (4.38%), SMIC (2.14%), Luxshare Precision (2.06%), Huichuan Technology (1.86%), BOE Technology (1.81%), Cambricon (1.77%), Northern Huachuang (1.75%), Haiguang Information (1.64%), and SANY Heavy Industry (1.44%) [2] - The market capitalization distribution of the index shows that the Shenzhen Stock Exchange accounts for 54.32%, the Shanghai Stock Exchange for 45.58%, and the Beijing Stock Exchange for 0.10% [2] - The industry composition of the index includes 43.50% in industrials, 38.26% in information technology, 12.42% in consumer discretionary, 5.56% in communication services, and 0.26% in energy [2] Group 3 - The index samples are adjusted every six months, with adjustments implemented on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December [3] - Public funds tracking the CSI High-end Equipment Manufacturing Index include Eastmoney CSI High-end Equipment Manufacturing Index Enhanced A, Eastmoney CSI High-end Equipment Manufacturing Index Enhanced C, Tianhong CSI High-end Equipment Manufacturing Enhanced A, Tianhong CSI High-end Equipment Manufacturing Enhanced C, and Eastmoney CSI High-end Equipment Manufacturing Index Enhanced E [3]

5 月汽车终端景气度草根结论汇报 20250518 摘要 • 小米事故影响消退，新车密集上市有望推动城市板块增长，港股优于 A 股， 首推小鹏、理想、小米等港股标的，A 股优选华为、北汽蓝谷等，潍柴动 力维持优选。 • 五一后汽车市场季节性回落，消费者观望情绪加剧，购车决策周期拉长， 如极氪 007GT 对 Model 3 构成竞争，银河车型对比亚迪产生影响，但整 体符合预期。 • 乘用车行业库存稳定，价格竞争温和，比亚迪智驾版车型折扣增加以去库 存，理想新款通过配置升级和优惠提升性价比，订单表现符合预期。 • 特斯拉交付受极氪 007GT 等竞品影响，问界 M8 订单火爆但对 M9 有影响， 极氪 007JT 表现符合预期但对 001 替代效应超预期，杭州补贴或致内部竞 争。 • 下修全年乘用车零售预期至 2,369 万辆，同比增 4.1%，新能源零售下修 40 万辆，渗透率降 1%，出口维持 523 万辆。五月预测下修至 185 万辆， 同比仍双位数增长。 Q&A 当前整车行业的整体表现如何？对于乘用车和重卡市场的预期是什么？ 根据五月份的数据，城市和重卡市场表现与预期相比相对平淡。然而，对于全 年的乘用 ...

汽车和汽车零部件行业周报 20250518 ➢ 乘用车基本面向上 新车催化密集 智驾平权提振估值。根据乘用车上险数 据，5 月第 1/2 周乘用车销量 42.4/45.4 万辆，新能源渗透率为 48.2%/49.8%， 受益车展后新车密集催化及五一需求好转，周销量快速恢复。近期，吉利银河星 耀 8 上市，上市限时价 11.58-15.58 万元，加速抢夺 20 万元以下市场；理想汽 车宣布 L 系列智能焕新版正式上市，新车全系标配激光雷达。展望，后续将迎新 车密集催化，重点新车包括小米 YU7、小鹏 M03 MAX、G7、吉利银河星舰 9、 零跑 B01、长安深蓝 S09 等，建议关注基本面向上及具有智驾能力的公司。 ➢ 投资建议：乘用车：看好智能化、全球化加速突破的优质自主，推荐【比亚 迪、吉利汽车、小鹏汽车、赛力斯、理想汽车】，建议关注【小米集团】。 零部件：1）新势力产业链：推荐 H 链-【沪光股份、瑞鹄模具、星宇股份】；建 议关注小米链【无锡振华】； 推荐 T 链【拓普集团、新泉股份、双环传动】； 2）智能化：推荐智能驾驶-【伯特利】，建议关注【地平线机器人】，推荐智能 座舱-【上声电子、继峰股份】。 ...

Market Performance - As of May 16, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.40% to 3367.46 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.07% to 10179.60 points, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.19% to 2039.45 points, indicating a broad market decline [1] - The total trading volume of the two markets reached 1.09 trillion yuan [1] Sector Performance - The top three sectors with gains were passenger cars (up 2.28%), auto parts (up 1.95%), and jewelry (up 1.87%) [1] - The sectors with the largest declines were fisheries (down 2.27%), insurance (down 1.52%), and cosmetics (down 1.43%) [1] ETF Insights - The ChiNext ETF (Hua Xia, 159957) closed down 0.38% at a price of 1.33 yuan, with a trading volume of 31.1295 million yuan and a turnover rate of 1.83% [1] - Over the past week, the ChiNext ETF has seen a cumulative increase of 1.22% [1] - The fund's scale increased by 6.5786 million yuan over the past week, ranking third among comparable funds [1] Valuation Metrics - The ChiNext Index tracked by the ETF is currently at a historical low valuation, with a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 4.11, which is lower than 82.17% of the time over the past five years, indicating strong valuation attractiveness [1] Top Holdings - As of April 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the ChiNext Index accounted for 50.3% of the index, including companies like Ningde Times, Dongfang Wealth, and Mindray Medical [2]

Core Insights - The Chinese passenger car market experienced a significant structural price adjustment in the first four months of 2025, with a total retail of 6.872 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.9% [1] - The average price of passenger cars in 2025 was 170,000 yuan, a decrease of 7000 yuan compared to 2024, with April 2025 showing a decline of 21,000 yuan year-on-year, marking the largest drop in nearly five years [1] Market Dynamics - The decline in prices is attributed to the increase in entry-level model sales due to government subsidies for scrapping and replacing old vehicles, leading to a shift in consumer preference towards mid-to-low-priced vehicles [1] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in the market below 50,000 yuan reached 90% in April 2025, with pure electric models accounting for 86% of this segment [2] - In the high-end market (above 300,000 yuan), NEVs accounted for approximately 40%, with range-extended models being more prevalent than pure electric and hybrid models [2] Brand Performance - In the first four months of 2025, luxury brands maintained an average price of 366,000 yuan, while joint venture brands saw a slight increase to 174,000 yuan [3] - New force brands experienced a significant price drop of 36,000 yuan to 235,000 yuan, and domestic brands slightly decreased to 121,000 yuan [3] - Notably, the average price of NEVs across luxury, joint venture, and domestic brands surpassed that of their fuel counterparts, indicating a strong market position for NEV products [3]

Group 1 - The core index of the CSI 1000 Consumer Discretionary Index reported a decline of 0.40% on May 16, with a current value of 4558.22 points [1] - The CSI 1000 Consumer Discretionary Index has increased by 4.57% over the past month, decreased by 0.39% over the past three months, and has risen by 3.66% year-to-date [2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI 1000 Consumer Discretionary Index include: Yinlun Holdings (4.19%), Magpow (4.02%), Qianli Technology (3.12%), Fulian Precision (2.81%), Longxin General (2.64%), Weifu High-Tech (2.37%), Huamao Technology (1.93%), Jingu Co. (1.88%), Weixing Co. (1.88%), and Kidswant (1.84%) [2] Group 2 - The CSI 1000 Consumer Discretionary Index is composed of stocks selected for their liquidity and market representation, with adjustments made biannually in June and December [3] - The market share of the CSI 1000 Consumer Discretionary Index is 61.65% from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange and 38.35% from the Shanghai Stock Exchange [2] - The industry composition of the CSI 1000 Consumer Discretionary Index includes: Passenger vehicles and parts (53.44%), Durable goods (20.22%), Retail (12.85%), Textiles, clothing, and jewelry (11.16%), and Consumer services (2.33%) [2]

Market Overview - The market experienced a weak fluctuation, with all three major indices closing down. The consumer sector showed resilience, while over 3,800 stocks declined [1][3] - Goldman Sachs raised the 12-month targets for the MSCI China Index and the CSI 300 Index to 84 points and 4,600 points, respectively, indicating potential upside of 11% and 17%. They maintain an overweight rating on Chinese stocks and suggest focusing on multiple themes for excess returns [1] Sector Performance - New hotspots emerged in the market, particularly in the ergot sulfur concept, with Chuaning Biological hitting a 20% limit up. Other sectors such as beauty care and medical aesthetics also saw significant gains [1] - The food and beverage sector rebounded in the afternoon, with several stocks, including Xiwang Food, hitting the limit up. The shipping and port sector continued its upward trend, with Nanjing Port achieving three consecutive limit ups [1] - The textile and apparel sector showed recovery, with Huafang Co. achieving six limit ups in eight days. Other sectors like coal, chemicals, synthetic biology, rare earths, and ST stocks also performed well [1] Individual Stock Movements - A total of 1,407 stocks rose, while 3,856 stocks fell, with 149 stocks remaining flat. There were 78 stocks hitting the limit up and 12 stocks hitting the limit down [3] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.68% to 3,380.82 points, with a trading volume of 461.3 billion yuan. The Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 1.62% to 10,186.45 points, with a trading volume of 688.7 billion yuan. The ChiNext Index decreased by 1.91% to 2,043.25 points [3] Fund Flow - Main funds focused on sectors such as chemical pharmaceuticals, small metals, and passenger vehicles, with notable net inflows into stocks like BYD, Chuaning Biological, and Shenghe Resources [4] Regulatory Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is expediting the introduction of a comprehensive policy package to deepen reforms in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the ChiNext, aiming to enhance the inclusiveness and adaptability of the system [5] Industry Insights - The anti-aging industry is divided into medical and non-medical tracks, with the former focusing on basic medical research and the latter encompassing various fields such as sociology and artificial intelligence [2] - The China Academy of Sciences has made breakthroughs in the electro-catalytic reforming of waste plastic PET to produce biodegradable plastic PGA, with projected market demand reaching millions of tons [6] Economic Outlook - Analysts from Minsheng Securities suggest that China's asset resilience may be higher than that of overseas markets, with a focus on consumption sectors and undervalued financial stocks [9] - Huazhong Securities indicates that the market will continue to experience fluctuations until significant improvements in the macroeconomic fundamentals are observed [10]

2024Q4&2025Q1：政策驱动总量 智能化盈利领 跑 ➢ 乘用车：政策促需 规模效应、汇兑收益驱动盈利。销量端：2024Q4 乘用 车批发 885.9 万辆，同比+12.4%，环比+32.2%。2025Q1 乘用车批发 641.9 万 辆，同比+12.9%，环比-27.6%；营收端，2024Q4 乘用车板块营收 6,965 亿元， 同比+18.0%，环比+28.8%；2025Q1 车企 ASP 相对稳定， 7 家样本企业收入 达 4,477 亿元，同比+6.2%，环比-35.7%；毛利端：2024Q4 整体毛利表现较 好，2025Q1 乘用车企毛利率表现分化，规模效应+产品结构改善+降本驱动毛 利向上，产品结构变化导致毛利率向下；净利端，2024Q4 整体业绩表现亮眼， 2025Q1 还叠加人民币贬值带来汇兑收益，车企 2025Q1 净利润同比表现尚佳。 ➢ 零部件：营收持续增长 智能化盈利表现亮眼。营收端，2024Q4 零部件板 块营收 2,692.25 亿元，同比+6.8%，环比+13.2%，增长主要受益于核心自主品 牌、新势力产业链强势表现。2025Q1 零部件板块营收 2,326.9 亿元，同比 ...