Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper prices have rebounded mainly due to the easing of tariff attitudes and strong support from the spot end, but the sustainability of consumption remains to be observed. Near the May Day holiday, it is recommended to wait and see [2][3][7]. - Alumina prices have continued to decline, leading to an expansion of industry losses. The short - term market situation has alleviated the oversupply pattern, but the price is still under pressure. It is recommended to wait for the price to rebound and then short [10][14][15]. - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. It is necessary to pay attention to changes in tariff policies and domestic demand - boosting policies [19][23][24]. - Zinc prices may rebound in the short term due to overseas zinc mine shutdown news, and it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [27][30][31]. - Lead prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term range, and it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [34][35][37]. - Nickel prices follow macro - sentiment fluctuations in the short term and should be shorted on rebounds in the medium term [42][44][45]. - Stainless steel prices follow nickel prices and macro - changes in the short term and may decline in the medium term if the global economy enters a recession [47][49][50]. - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see for options [53][58][59]. - Industrial silicon prices are under pressure due to high inventory. Even if there is a rebound, it is an opportunity to short [61][64][65]. - Polysilicon 2506 contract will follow the delivery logic, and the price will be repaired upwards. It is recommended to go long on PS2506 and short on PS2511 for arbitrage [66][68][69]. - Lithium carbonate prices are recommended to be shorted on rebounds, hold put ratio options, and wait and see for arbitrage [70][72][75]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: On April 24, the Shanghai Copper 2505 contract closed at 77,600 yuan, a decrease of 0.5%. The Shanghai Copper Index increased its positions by 4,180 lots to 534,100 lots. The spot copper price fluctuated downward, and the downstream demand for receiving goods weakened [2]. - **Important Information**: As of April 24, the national mainstream copper inventory decreased by 14,800 tons to 181,700 tons compared with Monday, and decreased by 51,700 tons compared with last Thursday. Canadian miner Teck Resources' copper sales increased in Q1, and Anglo American's copper production decreased in Q1, but both maintained their annual production guidance [2][3]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of copper ore is tight, processing fees are declining, and the price of sulfuric acid is falling. The supply of scrap copper has increased after the price rebound, and the downstream consumption has weakened, but the inventory is low, and there is restocking demand before May Day [3][6]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, and wait and see for both arbitrage and options [7][12]. Alumina - **Market Review**: On April 24, the Alumina 2505 contract increased by 35 yuan/ton to 2,847 yuan/ton, and the positions decreased by 16,659 lots to 381,200 lots. The spot price increased slightly [9]. - **Related Information**: A large - scale alumina enterprise in Shandong completed the overhaul of a 1 - million - ton production line, and the 2.5 - million - ton old production line will be shut down. As of April 24, the national alumina inventory decreased by 26,000 tons to 3.423 million tons [10][11]. - **Logic Analysis**: The decline in alumina prices has led to an expansion of industry losses. The short - term market situation has alleviated the oversupply pattern, but the price is still under pressure due to factors such as new production capacity and high inventory [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to wait for the price to rebound and then short for unilateral trading, and wait and see for both arbitrage and options [15][12]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: On April 24, the Shanghai Aluminum 2506 contract closed at 19,930 yuan/ton, an increase of 115 yuan/ton, and the positions increased by 8,103 lots to 536,500 lots. The spot price increased [18]. - **Related Information**: Trump said he might "significantly reduce" tariffs on China, but there is no actual negotiation. The US 4 - month Markit manufacturing PMI unexpectedly expanded, and the aluminum ingot and aluminum rod social inventories decreased [19][22]. - **Logic Analysis**: The weighted starting rate of aluminum processing has continued to decline, but the inventory is low. The import of aluminum ingots has increased, and the annual supply - demand is expected to be in surplus [23]. - **Trading Strategy**: Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to wait and see for both arbitrage and options [24]. Zinc - **Market Review**: On April 24, the Shanghai Zinc 2506 increased by 0.78% to 22,590 yuan/ton, and the positions of the Shanghai Zinc Index decreased by 4,124 lots to 231,400 lots. The spot price in Shanghai increased, but the downstream procurement was weak [26]. - **Related Information**: As of April 24, the SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory decreased by 14,200 tons to 85,800 tons. Boliden's zinc concentrate production in Q1 increased, and Newmont's decreased [27][29]. - **Logic Analysis**: Overseas zinc mines have shut down, which may drive zinc prices to rebound. In April - May, domestic smelters have both maintenance and production increases, and the consumption is about to enter the off - season [30]. - **Trading Strategy**: Zinc prices may rebound in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for both arbitrage and options [31]. Lead - **Market Review**: On April 24, the Shanghai Lead 2506 increased by 0.41% to 16,940 yuan/ton, and the positions of the Shanghai Lead Index decreased by 1,218 lots to 72,200 lots. The spot price increased slightly, and the downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand [33]. - **Related Information**: A regenerated lead smelter in the northwest shut down due to equipment failure, and a smelter in the south began lead - zinc smelting maintenance [34]. - **Logic Analysis**: The waste battery recycling is weak, the regenerated lead smelting is in a loss state, and the lead - acid battery enterprises will stock up before the holiday, which will support the lead price [35]. - **Trading Strategy**: Lead prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term range. It is recommended to wait and see for both arbitrage and options [37]. Nickel - **Market Review**: On April 24, the Shanghai Nickel NI2506 decreased by 130 to 125,770 yuan/ton, and the index positions increased by 3,012 lots. The spot premium decreased, and the sulfuric acid nickel price increased [39]. - **Related Information**: The global public debt is expected to exceed the level during the COVID - 19 period. Indonesia's "Titan Project" will continue, and Nanjing Hanrui Cobalt postponed the commissioning of its nickel smelting project [40][41]. - **Logic Analysis**: Macro - sentiment fluctuates, the supply of raw materials is gradually abundant, and the medium - term supply - demand is turning to be loose [42][44]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rebounds in the medium term, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [45]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: On April 24, the main SS2506 contract increased by 15 to 12,780 yuan/ton, and the index positions decreased by 2,661 lots. The spot price of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel is given [47]. - **Related Information**: As of April 24, the national mainstream stainless steel social inventory decreased by 0.78% week - on - week, mainly the 300 - series resources were digested [48]. - **Logic Analysis**: The prices of NPI and chrome ore have stopped rising, the demand is unclear, and the inventory digestion is slow [49]. - **Trading Strategy**: Follow macro - fluctuations in the short term and decline in the medium term. Wait and see for arbitrage [50][51]. Tin - **Market Review**: On April 24, the Shanghai Tin 2505 contract closed at 259,520 yuan/ton, an increase of 920 yuan/ton or 0.36%. The spot price increased, but the actual transaction was limited [53][55]. - **Related Information**: The Wabang industrial and mineral management bureau held a meeting on the resumption of production in the Manxiang mine, and the cost of low - altitude mines and small and medium - sized concentrators may increase. Elementos released the feasibility study of its Oropesa tin project [56][57]. - **Logic Analysis**: The US Treasury Secretary's statement released a signal of trade war easing, but the market expectation is still volatile. The short - term tin ore supply is tight, but the annual supply - demand tightness is alleviated [58]. - **Trading Strategy**: Tin prices are expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term. Wait and see for options [59][60]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures main contract weakened on April 24, closing at 8,875 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.11%. The spot price of some grades decreased [61]. - **Related Information**: Henan Rongwang New Materials plans to build a 1 - million - ton regenerated industrial silicon project [63]. - **Logic Analysis**: The inventory of industrial silicon is high, the demand is weak, and the price is under pressure. Even if there is a rebound, it is an opportunity to short [64]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rebounds. Wait and see for options. Participate in the reverse arbitrage of Si2511 and Si2512 [65]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: On April 24, the polysilicon futures main contract rebounded, closing at 39,375 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.26%. The spot price decreased [66]. - **Related Information**: From January to March 2025, China's new photovoltaic installed capacity increased by 30.5% year - on - year [67]. - **Logic Analysis**: The prices of components, silicon wafers, and batteries have decreased, and the industry is pessimistic about demand. The 2506 contract will follow the delivery logic [68]. - **Trading Strategy**: The 2506 contract price will be repaired upwards. Go long on PS2506 and short on PS2511 for arbitrage [69]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: On April 24, the main 2507 contract increased by 40 to 68,300 yuan/ton, and the index positions decreased by 1,200 lots. The spot price decreased [70]. - **Related Information**: LG Energy Solution withdrew from an Indonesian project, and a new energy technology company was established. Jilin Province introduced consumption - boosting policies [71]. - **Logic Analysis**: Multiple factors led to a short - term price rebound, but the industrial logic is still bearish. The supply may increase in May, and the price may be under pressure [72]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rebounds, wait and see for arbitrage, and hold put ratio options [75].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Trump's tariff policies have a significant impact on the global financial market and有色金属 prices. Short - term price fluctuations are intense, and the medium - term supply - demand fundamentals of various metals are still the main factors affecting prices [3][18][37] - For different metals, the report provides corresponding trading strategies based on their supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and policy impacts [3][10][23] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Copper 2504 contract closed at 75,400 yuan, up 4.23%, and the Shanghai Copper Index increased its position by 3,919 lots to 543,300 lots. The spot premium decreased [2] - **Important Information**: As of April 10, the national mainstream copper inventory decreased significantly. It is expected that the supply will be tight next week, and the demand increase will be limited, and the inventory is expected to continue to decline [2] - **Logic Analysis**: Trump's tariff suspension announcement led to a short - term rebound in LME copper. The fundamentals show a back structure, and the impact of the trade war on orders may appear after April. It is recommended to short on rebounds [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions and wait and see for arbitrage [3] Alumina - **Market Review**: The Alumina 2505 contract rose 35 yuan/ton to 2,790 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 20,444 lots to 392,500 lots. The spot price decreased in most regions [5] - **Related Information**: Multiple alumina plants are undergoing maintenance, and new production lines are put into operation. The national alumina inventory increased, and the price of imported bauxite decreased [6][7] - **Logic Analysis**: Although the short - term supply - demand surplus situation is alleviated, it is difficult to change in the medium - term. It is recommended to short after the rebound [9] - **Trading Strategy**: Short the price, wait and see for arbitrage, and buy put options [10][11] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Aluminum 2505 contract closed at 19,805 yuan/ton, up 360 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 19,603 lots to 509,800 lots. The spot price increased [13] - **Related Information**: Trump adjusted the tariff policy, and China counter - imposed tariffs. The US 10 - year Treasury yield soared. The domestic aluminum inventory decreased, and the CPI and PPI data were released [14][16] - **Trading Logic**: Trump's tariff suspension led to a market rebound. The tariff may affect aluminum exports, and the domestic second - quarter demand and inventory will support the basis and month - to - month spread [18] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for the short - term due to macro - uncertainty, expect the AL05 - 08 contract spread to widen, and wait and see for options [23] Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Zinc 2505 rose 2.92% to 22,705 yuan/ton, and the position of the Shanghai Zinc Index decreased by 17,515 lots to 208,600 lots. The downstream procurement was cautious [21] - **Related Information**: As of April 10, the domestic zinc ingot inventory decreased, and the spot trading improved [22] - **Logic Analysis**: In April, the domestic zinc concentrate supply is still loose, and the smelting plant is profitable. The consumption in April is expected to be boosted [25] - **Trading Strategy**: The zinc price runs strongly in the short - term and can be shorted on highs in the long - term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [26] Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Lead 2505 rose 1.97% to 16,800 yuan/ton, and the position of the Shanghai Lead Index decreased by 7,357 lots to 81,800 lots. The spot price increased, and the supply and demand were weak [28] - **Related Information**: As of April 10, the domestic lead ingot inventory decreased [29] - **Logic Analysis**: In April, the supply of primary lead may decrease due to maintenance, and the raw materials of secondary lead smelters are in short supply. The consumption is weak, and attention should be paid to imports [30] - **Trading Strategy**: The lead price may rebound in the short - term, and there is a risk of further decline. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [31][33] Nickel - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Nickel NI2505 fell 2,690 to 121,600 yuan/ton, and the position of the index increased by 7,287 lots. The spot premium decreased [35] - **Related Information**: The EU announced counter - measures against US tariffs, and the Fed's attitude towards interest rate cuts is cautious [36] - **Logic Analysis**: The short - term raw materials are tight, and the spot premium is strong. The medium - term supply may be in surplus, and it is recommended to short after the rebound [37] - **Trading Strategy**: The nickel price is weak, wait and see for arbitrage and options [38][39][40] Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2505 contract fell 35 to 12,675 yuan/ton, and the position of the index decreased by 734 lots. The spot price range is 12,700 - 13,200 yuan/ton for cold - rolled and 12,700 - 12,800 yuan/ton for hot - rolled [43] - **Related Information**: The EU may impose import restrictions on stainless steel [44] - **Logic Analysis**: The nickel price is weak, and the stainless steel demand is poor. It is expected to be weak in the short - term [45] - **Trading Strategy**: The price fluctuates weakly, and pay attention to domestic stimulus policies. Wait and see for arbitrage [46][47] Tin - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Tin 2505 contract closed at 257,200 yuan/ton, down 2,220 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 392 lots to 77,660 lots. The spot price decreased [49] - **Related Information**: The Bisie tin mine in Congo (Kinshasa) is resuming production, and Indonesia may increase the mining royalty rate. The Myanmar earthquake affects the resumption of production [50][52][53] - **Logic Analysis**: The resumption of production in Congo (Kinshasa) affects the price, and the supply in Indonesia and Myanmar is uncertain. The downward space of the tin price may be limited [54] - **Trading Strategy**: The supply contradiction is weakened, and the macro - sentiment improves. Be cautious in operation and wait and see for options [55][56] Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures main contract opened slightly higher and fluctuated narrowly, closing at 9,555 yuan/ton. The spot price of some grades decreased [58] - **Related Information**: Trump suspended tariffs on some countries, and a 100,000 - ton industrial silicon project was put into operation [59] - **Logic Analysis**: The inventory is high, and the price is difficult to reverse. The cost decreases, and the short - term price may rebound [60] - **Trading Strategy**: Operate within the range, wait and see for options, and participate in the reverse arbitrage of Si2511 and Si2512 [61] Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures main contract opened high and closed low, closing at 42,190 yuan/ton, down 1.01%. The spot price of some enterprises decreased [62] - **Related Information**: Trump suspended tariffs on some countries [63][64] - **Logic Analysis**: In April, the polysilicon industry will reduce inventory. There are risks of insufficient warehouse receipts and falling spot prices. Adjust the trading strategy [65] - **Trading Strategy**: Go long in the short - term and avoid short - selling. Hold the positive arbitrage of PS2506 and PS2511, and hold the reverse arbitrage of PS2511 and PS2512 [66] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2505 contract rose 1,060 to 70,540 yuan/ton, and the position of the index decreased by 4,973 lots. The spot price increased [67] - **Related Information**: A photovoltaic project was signed [68] - **Logic Analysis**: The trade war may affect lithium battery exports. The supply is expected to increase after May, and the price may fluctuate weakly [69][71] - **Trading Strategy**: Close short positions appropriately below 70,000, enter the market again on rebounds, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [72]

行业 镍日报 日期 2025 年 4 月 9 日 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 研究员:张平 021-60635734 zhangpin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 镍观点： 继黑色星期一跟随市场跳空大跌之后，8 日沪镍高开高走，继续向 12 万关口 修复，2505 尾盘报收于 119280，微跌 0.01%，指数总持仓减少 5055 至 179362 手。 期价下跌后贸易商被迫提高升水以保障成本，日内金川升水涨至 3500 元/吨，俄 镍升水涨至 250。关税给镍市场带来的主要影响在于全球贸易壁垒加剧之后导致 相关终端产品需求收缩的风险，具体幅度暂难估测，但当前经济前景不确定性以 及避险情绪仍然主导市场，镍价也难言乐观，从基本面上看，产业链估值基本已 在成本线徘徊，尽管纯镍过剩趋势未改，但近期全球库存边际减少，亦能给到一 定支撑，且镍 ...

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Name: Nickel Daily Report [1] - Date: April 1, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Nonferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Nickel Price Movement: On the 31st, the nickel price dropped from a high, with the main 2505 contract closing below 130,000 at the end of the session, down 1.25% from the previous trading day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 3342 to 184,613 lots [8] - Spot Market: Due to the slower - than - expected recovery of downstream demand, the market mainly replenished inventory for immediate needs. Traders moderately reduced prices to test market demand. The premium of Jinchuan nickel dropped to 1450 yuan/ton, and the discount of Russian nickel was - 50 [8] - Ore End: Indonesian pyrometallurgical nickel ore prices may rise in April due to the long - lasting rainy season in Sulawesi, which affected nickel ore mining and transportation, resulting in a relatively slow supply recovery in main mining areas [8] - Nickel Sulfate: Nickel sulfate remained strong. As nickel salt plants had limited acceptance of MHP prices and some had cut production, the supply of nickel sulfate was relatively limited, and its price was expected to rise further [8] - Pure Nickel: The pressure of pure nickel surplus remained unchanged, and global nickel inventories continued to increase [8] - Operation Suggestion: The Shanghai nickel futures oscillated around 130,000. Considering that most of the industrial chain valuations were near the cost line, pay attention to overseas policy changes and wait for low - level buying opportunities [8] Group 3: Industry News - China's Nickel Sulfate Trade: In February 2025, China's total imports of nickel sulfate were 3613 metal tons, a month - on - month increase of 17% and a year - on - year increase of 13%. Exports were 129 metal tons, a month - on - month increase of 13% and a year - on - year decrease of 44%. The net imports were 3483 metal tons, a month - on - month and year - on - year increase of 17% [9] - Corporate Developments: Chinese companies like Luoyang Molybdenum, Huayou Cobalt, and Hanrui Cobalt operate normally in Congo (Kinshasa), and more giants are actively deploying in the Indonesian market through hydrometallurgical projects to obtain more nickel and cobalt resources. Lanshi Heavy Equipment will jointly invest 270 million yuan with Jinchuan Group to build a 10,000 - ton nickel - based alloy project in Lanzhou New Area, with an expected total investment of 400 million yuan, and an expected annual revenue of 1.6 billion yuan after reaching full production [11] - LME Fine: The UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) fined the London Metal Exchange (LME) 9.2 million pounds (about 11.9 million US dollars) for its lack of sufficient systems and controls in dealing with the 2022 nickel market short - squeeze event. The LME got a 30% fine reduction for accepting the FCA's investigation results [11]