美中贸易全国委员会：中国市场仍是企业维持全球竞争力的关键所在 金十数据7月16日讯，当地时间7月16日，美中贸易全国委员会发布2025年《中国商业环境调查》报告。 报告称，中美关系及关税影响成为美国企业面临的主要挑战，但中国市场仍是企业维持全球竞争力的关 键所在。 （央视新闻） ...

出口回升：关税降温还是抢运再现 [Table_Authors] ——2025 年 6 月贸易数据点评 本报告导读： 部分产品的抢运透支导致关税降温后 6 月上旬出口表现依旧一般，6 月底对东盟的 抢运脉冲是全月出口动能回升的关键。三季度气候因素与关税影响叠加，出口总体 趋势下行、波动放大。若 7 月抢运持续，8 月后出口回落的斜率更高。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 整体来看： 出口结构上来看： 证 券 研 究 报 告 宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.07.14 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 宏 观 研 究 宏 观 快 报 点 评 [Table_Report] 2025-07-16 同比增速上，2025 年 6 月，美元计价的中国出口增速 5.8%（前值 4.8%），进口增速 1.1%（前值-3.4%）。 从环比动能来看，6 月出口较 5 月环比增速 2.9%，而 4 月、5 月分 别为 0.6%、0.2%；进口环比增速-1.2%，略低于季节性水平。 商品贸易顺差小幅提升。 国别结构上，2025 年 6 月对美国增速回升，录得-16.1%；对东盟出 口增速提升，为 16.8% ...

Core Points - Chengdu Customs has implemented a series of enterprise-friendly policies to facilitate foreign trade, focusing on optimizing customs processes, tax convenience, and error correction mechanisms, thereby creating a better business environment for foreign trade enterprises [1][11]. Group 1: Customs Process Simplification - The integration of customs clearance nationwide allows enterprises to complete declarations and tax payments at any customs office, eliminating regional restrictions and saving time [2]. - The "two-step declaration" model enables importers to submit only essential information initially, expediting the clearance process for urgent goods [2]. - The "advance declaration" policy allows enterprises to declare goods before they arrive, significantly reducing overall clearance time [2]. Group 2: Tax Convenience - The new tax collection model allows eligible enterprises to clear goods before paying taxes, easing cash flow pressures [3]. - The tax guarantee policy allows a single guarantee to cover multiple tax-related activities, simplifying processes and reducing costs [3]. - Cross-border e-commerce enterprises benefit from an electronic payment system for retail import taxes, enhancing payment efficiency [3]. Group 3: Error Correction Mechanism - The proactive disclosure policy allows enterprises to self-report tax underpayments or other violations without facing penalties, encouraging compliance [4][15]. - Enterprises can quickly check reasons for customs declaration rejections and resubmit corrected documents, reducing delays [4]. Group 4: Specific Product Clearance - Special measures for specific products, such as fresh agricultural products and hazardous materials, streamline the inspection and approval processes [5]. - Risk-based management for special items ensures that clearance procedures are tailored to the risk level, enhancing efficiency while maintaining safety [5]. - Chengdu Customs provides technical support and health services to facilitate smoother cross-border operations for enterprises [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant decline in China-US trade, with a total trade value of 2.08 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, down 9.3% year-on-year, and a sharp drop of 20.8% in the second quarter [1] - China's exports to the US decreased by 9.9% to 1.55 trillion yuan, while imports fell by 7.7% to 530.35 billion yuan, largely attributed to the US's "reciprocal tariffs" [1] - The trade data reflects the pressures faced by companies reliant on China-US trade, with some experiencing a sudden drop in orders and needing to adjust supply chains due to rising costs from tariffs [1] Group 2 - Recent positive signals have emerged, with trade talks in Geneva and London showing progress, leading to a rebound in trade, as June's import and export values rose from under 300 billion yuan in May to over 350 billion yuan [1] - The articles emphasize that dialogue and cooperation are essential for resolving trade disputes, as mutual benefits are the foundation of China-US economic relations [1][3][5] - The international context includes the US's stance on Russia and Ukraine, with implications for global trade dynamics, highlighting the interconnectedness of international relations [3][5] Group 3 - The articles stress the importance of multilateral cooperation and the rejection of unilateralism and protectionism, advocating for dialogue to resolve differences and achieve mutual benefits [7] - As the world's two largest economies, China and the US are urged to set an example for global cooperation and economic recovery [7]

Economic Growth - China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year, surpassing last year's growth of 5.0% and market expectations, laying a solid foundation for achieving the annual target of around 5% [1] - The contribution rates of the three main drivers of the economy were: final consumption expenditure at 52%, capital formation at 16.8%, and net exports at 31.2% [1] Consumption - Final consumption expenditure has become the main driving force for economic growth, with a contribution rate of 52.3% in the second quarter, slightly up from the first quarter [1] - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 24.55 trillion yuan, growing by 5% year-on-year, with a second-quarter growth of 5.4%, an acceleration of 0.8 percentage points from the first quarter [1] - Various policies to expand domestic demand and promote consumption, particularly the "trade-in" policy, significantly boosted sales in appliances, automobiles, and communication products [1][2] Investment - Investment growth and contribution rates showed fluctuations, with real estate investment continuing to decline and manufacturing investment facing saturation and pressure [3] - Fixed asset investment nominally grew by 2.8%, while the actual growth rate, after adjusting for price effects, was 5.3% [3] - The manufacturing sector's investment growth fell to 5.1% year-on-year in June, indicating challenges in industrial production despite strong consumption and net exports [3] Trade and Exports - Net exports contributed significantly to economic growth, with total goods trade reaching 21.79 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [2] - Exports broke the historical record of 13 trillion yuan, growing by 7.2% year-on-year, while imports decreased by 2.7% [2] Market Sentiment - International institutions have raised their growth forecasts for China, reflecting the resilience of the economy against external shocks and the growth potential of domestic consumption [4] - The Shanghai Composite Index surpassed 3,500 points, driven by restored investor confidence and expectations of continued policy support in the second half of the year [4]

Group 1 - The core role of species certification in contract fulfillment is to serve as essential documentation for customs clearance and to ensure compliance with international trade regulations [1][3] - Species certification is crucial for proving that goods are not part of illegal trade, supporting the completeness of documentation required for customs clearance at the destination port, and ensuring consistency in documents related to payment and letters of credit [3] - For Chinese exporters dealing with endangered species products, such as snake skin bags and rosewood crafts, species certification must be provided alongside CITES certificates; otherwise, buyers may refuse to accept goods or customs may detain shipments [3] Group 2 - Companies should clarify the obligations regarding species certification and related documentation with buyers during the contract signing phase to prevent disputes arising from missing documents [4] - Export documentation should be prepared in advance, especially during peak periods at major ports like Shanghai, Tianjin, and Shenzhen, as the approval process for species certification may take longer [4] - It is essential to ensure that the content of the species certification is consistent with the contract, invoice, and packing list to avoid issues that could affect contract fulfillment [4] Group 3 - The trend in the industry indicates that global ecological protection regulations are becoming stricter, leading international buyers to conduct more rigorous reviews of species certification and related documentation [5] - Chinese export companies should proactively establish internal management systems for species certification applications and documentation archiving to meet the demands of digital fulfillment and cross-border data verification [5]

实际上，美国对所谓的"对等关税"早已信心不足，这种损人不利己的招数要落地执行将会遭遇巨大阻 力，因此生效日期一拖再拖，从最开始的4月9日再给90天缓冲期，在大限将至的7月9日又延长到8月1 日，本来划定最后期限是美国的极限施压，可是一退再退的日子，让全世界看到了美国的色厉内苒，现 在签是立刻输，观望中国的态度和后续行动，拖下去就有可能赢。对中美新一轮会谈，中国始终持乐观 开放态度，有意愿继续交流，保持积极沟通，两国经济体量大，涉及层面广，细节多，距离达成最终协 议尚有一段路走，美国只是着急喊话没有用，必须拿出诚意落到实处，与我们相向而行，这样才能做好 榜样。 美国发出全球加税令，谁都没吓倒，首批14国竟无一低头，财长贝森特急忙喊话中国，再见一面吧。近 日，美国方面陆续向日本、韩国等14个国家发出关税信函，将从8月1日起分别对来自这14个国家的进口 产品征收25%至40%不等的关税。本以为经过90天的缓冲，这些国家能够"认清形势"，没想到竟然都不 准备服软，传统盟友日本和韩国被征税25%，表示要"继续周旋下去"，其他国家最高征税达到40%，泰 国甚至喊出了"战斗到底"的口号。面对如此棘手情况，美国急需寻找到解决 ...

Export Performance - In June 2025, China's exports increased by 5.8% year-on-year, up from 4.8% in the previous month[11] - The decline in exports to the US narrowed, contributing 2.4 percentage points to total exports, down from 5.0 percentage points in May[20] - Exports to ASEAN and Africa showed resilience, with significant growth supporting overall export performance[4] Import Trends - Imports in June 2025 rose by 1.1% year-on-year, a recovery of 4.5 percentage points from the previous negative growth of -3.4%[11][28] - The increase in imports is primarily influenced by tariff changes, but future imports may remain low due to cyclical and tariff-related factors[28] Future Outlook - Short-term indicators suggest a potential decline in exports to the US in July, as container ship numbers have significantly decreased[29] - Long-term projections indicate a growing probability of accelerated export decline in the second half of the year due to rising US import tariffs and a cyclical downturn in global trade demand[29] - The phenomenon of "indirect export grabbing" may temporarily boost export growth, but it is expected to lead to a depletion effect on future export growth[3][29] Risks - There are risks associated with an unexpected decline in external demand and potential policy changes that could impact trade dynamics[43]

Economic Performance - The GDP for the first half of the year reached 66,053.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3% [1][2] - The industrial added value in June increased by 6.8% year-on-year, surpassing the expected growth of 5.5% [1][2] - The service sector's added value grew by 5.5% year-on-year, and retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.0% [2][3] Trade and Exports - In the first half of the year, China's total goods trade import and export amounted to 21.79 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [5] - Exports reached 13 trillion yuan, growing by 7.2%, while imports decreased by 2.7% [5] - In June, the total import and export scale hit 3.85 trillion yuan, marking a 5.2% increase, with exports at 2.34 trillion yuan, also up by 7.2% [6] Financial Data - M1 growth in June rebounded significantly by 2.3 percentage points to 4.6%, the highest for the same period in nearly five years [8][10] - Social financing increased by 4.2 trillion yuan in June, exceeding market expectations [1][8] - The demand for credit from residents and enterprises showed signs of recovery, with new RMB loans in June reaching 2.77 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.54 trillion yuan year-on-year [9]

Core Insights - China's foreign trade in the first half of 2025 reached 21.79 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, with exports at 13 trillion yuan (up 7.2%) and imports at 8.79 trillion yuan (down 2.7%) [1][2] Group 1: Trade Growth and Trends - The scale of foreign trade has shown stable growth, with a historical high for the same period, and a 4.5% year-on-year increase in the second quarter, marking the seventh consecutive quarter of growth [2] - The diversity of trade partners has increased, with trade with Belt and Road countries reaching 11.29 trillion yuan (up 4.7%), accounting for 51.8% of total trade, and significant growth in trade with ASEAN, EU, South Korea, and Japan [2][3] - Export momentum has shifted towards higher quality and new products, with mechanical and electrical products accounting for 60% of exports, and high-end equipment exports growing over 20% [2][4] Group 2: Import Dynamics - Domestic demand has stabilized imports, with significant growth in imports of petrochemical and textile machinery, as well as key electronic components and raw materials [2][4] Group 3: Private Sector Performance - The number of foreign trade enterprises reached 628,000, with private enterprises accounting for 547,000 and showing a 7.3% increase in trade volume, representing 57.3% of total foreign trade [3][4] - Private enterprises have consistently led foreign trade growth, with a historical high of over 12 trillion yuan in trade volume, outpacing national growth by 4.4 percentage points [3][4] Group 4: Innovation and Quality in Private Enterprises - Private enterprises are increasingly focusing on innovation and upgrading, with over 80% of specialized "little giant" enterprises being private, and a 12.5% increase in high-tech product exports [4] - The quality of private enterprise development is improving, with a significant portion of exports coming from the equipment manufacturing sector, and a notable presence in the top 500 import-export companies [4][5] Group 5: Export Market Dynamics - All three categories of enterprises (private, foreign, and state-owned) experienced export growth, with private enterprises exporting 8.52 trillion yuan (up 8.3%) [5] - Both traditional and emerging markets saw growth, with double-digit increases in exports to ASEAN, Central Asia, and Africa, driven by the provision of production equipment and technology [5][6]