全球产业链重塑

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美国对等关税正式生效,国内进出口增速双双加快
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-08-11 07:16
2012 31 2025-08-11 F3014717 Z0013223 01 PART ONE 主要观点 | 影响因素 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | | 回顾 | 本周国内大宗商品震荡回升,其中,工业品走势分化,农产品多数反弹。主要原因一是美国非农数据低于预期,降息预期再度升温,美元指数走弱带动市场风险偏 | | | 好回升;二是,国内反内卷政策预期仍存,市场情绪反复摇摆;三是,美国对等关税正式生效,美国因俄乌问题威胁征收二级关税进一步扰动全球供应链。 | | 海外 | 1)美国"对等关税"正式生效,中美单独实施90天缓冲期,非美发达经济体或将面临更大的出口冲击,同时新关税形势对我国出口影响路径也较为复杂,出口不 | | | 确定性仍存,全球产业链重塑加速启动。后续232行业关税可关注半导体、药品、关键矿物。2)美国7月ISM服务业指数仅为50.1,不仅低于市场预期的51.5,也 | | | 低于前值的50.8。该指数相较于6月下降0.7,连续第二个月处于扩张区间。5月该指数显示出近一年来的首次收缩,本次ISM服务业PMI已接近5月的低点,也接近 | | | 2024年6月以来的最低水平。3 ...
中国经济“行稳致远” 制造价值链升级继续
Cai Jing Wang· 2025-07-10 14:50
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite the changing international landscape, China's economy remains resilient, with GDP growth expected to exceed 5% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [1] - In the second half of the year, export growth may face pressure as the "export grabbing" effect diminishes, but macro policies will continue to support domestic demand growth [1] - China's policy approach is shifting towards a long-term stability model, as evidenced by recent structural reforms such as the removal of household registration restrictions for social insurance participation and the implementation of the Private Economy Promotion Law [1] - The upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" is a focal point for understanding the direction of future structural reforms [1] Group 2 - In the short term, increased tariffs will negatively impact trade, but in the long term, it will lead to a new round of industrial chain restructuring and changes in trade and investment flows [2] - China remains the largest exporter, with a projected global market share of 14.6% in 2024, while the U.S. continues to be the largest importer with a market share of 13.6% [2] - The largest export destination for China has shifted from the U.S. to ASEAN, while Mexico has become the largest source of imports for the U.S. [2] - Countries like Mexico and Vietnam, which have seen rapid export growth to the U.S., have absorbed significant foreign direct investment (FDI) in recent years, closely linked to the global industrial chain layout of Chinese enterprises [2] - China's manufacturing sector is undergoing a value chain upgrade, with a noticeable increase in the proportion of capital goods and intermediate goods in exports [2] - The added value of goods exported to the U.S. from countries like Mexico and Vietnam that originate from China has also significantly increased [2] - The overarching trend indicates that Chinese manufacturing continues to extend towards both ends of the "smile curve," with Chinese companies actively seeking higher added value and deeply embedding themselves in the global industrial chain [2]
展望下半年全球经济,汇丰最新发声!
天天基金网· 2025-07-02 06:37
时至年中,外资金融巨头陆续发布有关下半年的全球经济展望以及经济观察。 汇丰环球投资研究最新展望指出,国际局势风云变幻,全球经济或将面临更多下行压力。汇丰预计,2025年的 全球货物和服务贸易出口量增速可能下滑至同比1.8%,同期全球经济增速或放缓至2.5%。 "在尚不明朗的关税前景下,亚洲地区的出口及投资将双双承压,但区内众多经济体仍可采用扩张性宏观政策 来对冲部分影响。"汇丰称。 与此同时,汇丰认为,中国经济韧性依旧,"新一轮全球产业链重塑过程中,中国制造业将继续向'微笑曲 线'两端延伸,中国企业积极出海、获取更高附加值并深度嵌入全球产业链。" 多重不确定性延续 汇丰环球投资研究首席亚洲经济学家兼亚洲联席主管范力民(Frederic Neumann)表示,回顾上半年,受益 于"抢出口"效应的支撑,包括欧盟和中国在内的非美主要经济体今年一季度的经济增速超过了年初的市场预 期。 比如,中国最大的出口目的地从美国变成了东盟,而墨西哥则取代中国成为美国最大的进口来源国。对美国出 口增长迅速的国家,尤其是墨西哥和越南,过去几年间也吸收了大量的FDI(外商直接投资),与中资企业的 全球产业链布局息息相关。 刘晶还指出, ...
展望下半年全球经济,汇丰最新发声!
券商中国· 2025-07-01 23:22
Core Viewpoint - The global economy is expected to face increased downward pressure, with HSBC projecting a slowdown in global trade growth and economic growth in the coming years [2][4]. Economic Outlook - HSBC forecasts that global goods and services trade export growth may decline to 1.8% year-on-year by 2025, with global economic growth slowing to 2.5% during the same period [2][4]. - The uncertainty surrounding tariff policies is likely to pressure exports and investments in Asia, although many economies in the region can adopt expansionary macroeconomic policies to mitigate some impacts [3][6]. China’s Economic Resilience - Despite global uncertainties, China's economy remains resilient, with a focus on long-term stability and structural reforms [9][12]. - Recent structural reforms, such as the removal of household registration restrictions for social insurance and the implementation of the Private Economy Promotion Law, indicate a long-term policy direction [9]. - The shift in trade dynamics is evident, with ASEAN becoming China's largest export destination, and Mexico surpassing China as the largest source of U.S. imports [10][11]. Trade and Investment Trends - A survey conducted by HSBC revealed that 44% of global enterprises plan to increase trade with China, making it the most favored market for trade growth [14]. - In manufacturing, 40% of surveyed companies are currently or plan to increase production in China, second only to Europe [15]. - Asian enterprises show a higher inclination to increase trade and manufacturing in China compared to the global average, with 54% and 52% respectively [16]. Conclusion - The evolving global trade landscape highlights China's central role, with deepening economic ties within Asia and increasing trade corridors with the Middle East [17].
面对关税压力,应对经济“逆风”,东盟多国下调经济预期
Huan Qiu Shi Bao· 2025-05-20 22:49
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the economic slowdown in Southeast Asia, with five out of six major economies experiencing a decline in GDP growth in the first quarter of the year due to trade uncertainties and U.S. tariff policies [1][2][4] - Thailand's GDP growth for Q1 2025 is reported at 3.1%, showing a slight decrease from 3.3% in Q4 2024, with exports growing by 12.3% but hindered by weak government spending and private consumption [1][4] - Indonesia's GDP growth has dropped to 4.87%, the lowest since Q3 2021, while Malaysia's growth decreased from 4.9% to 4.4%, and Singapore's preliminary data fell from 5% to 3.8% [1][4] Group 2 - The U.S. tariffs imposed on Southeast Asian countries are expected to create significant economic headwinds, with tariff rates announced as follows: Vietnam 46%, Thailand 36%, Indonesia 32%, Malaysia 24%, Philippines 17%, and Singapore 10% [2][3] - The tariffs are anticipated to severely impact Indonesia's manufacturing sector, particularly in the footwear and textile industries, as over 60% of its clothing and 33% of its footwear exports go to the U.S. [3] - Vietnam is also facing potential risks, with over 29% of its exports directed to the U.S., including electronics, textiles, and seafood [3] Group 3 - Southeast Asian countries are adjusting their economic growth forecasts in response to the trade uncertainties, with Singapore lowering its growth prediction from 1%-3% to 0%-2% [4] - Malaysia's central bank has revised its growth forecast to slightly below the previous range of 4.5%-5.5%, while Thailand's NESDC has adjusted its annual growth expectation from 2.3%-3.3% to 1.3%-2.3% [4][5] - Despite the challenges, Southeast Asia's economic development retains potential, with countries like Singapore and Indonesia investing in infrastructure and innovation to strengthen their digital economies [5]
4月动力电池出口环比下降2.9%
高工锂电· 2025-05-14 10:30
Group 1 - The article discusses the upcoming 2025 High-Performance Sodium Battery Industry Summit and the 2025 High-Performance Solid-State Battery Technology and Application Summit, both taking place in Suzhou [2][3] - In April, the total export of domestic power batteries and other batteries was 22.3 GWh, a month-on-month decrease of 2.9% but a year-on-year increase of 64.2% [3] - The decline in power battery exports in April is considered within a normal range despite the significant impact of tariffs [3][4] Group 2 - The article highlights that companies typically maintain a stockpile of 1-3 months to mitigate supply chain disruptions, which has allowed them to manage the impact of tariffs without drastic changes in procurement [5] - The "transshipment" phenomenon in April boosted domestic lithium battery exports, with exports to ASEAN countries increasing by 20.8% year-on-year in dollar terms [5] - A 90-day tariff exemption agreement has been reached between China and the US, providing temporary relief for export-oriented companies [6] Group 3 - Domestic lithium battery companies have been increasing their overseas presence since 2022, with significant capacity being released between 2025 and 2027 [6] - As overseas capacity is released, domestic battery companies will enhance their ability to withstand tariff impacts [7] - The restructuring of the lithium battery supply chain is ongoing, with a focus on building sustainable global supply capabilities [7][8]