编者的话："随着经济加速增长，越南今年的国内生产总值（GDP）有望超过泰国。"泰国《国家报》5 日以此为题报道称，由于公共投资的推动，越南2026年的名义GDP或将超过泰国。而与此同时，泰国则 正面临经济增长放缓、债务问题以及边境冲突等困境。美国《外交学者》杂志在回顾东南亚地区过去一 年的经济大事件时提到，越南经济在该地区的表现尤为突出。5日，越南国家统计局最新公布数据，越 南第四季度GDP同比增长8.46%，全年GDP增速为8.02%。在越南与泰国展开GDP竞赛的背景下，日本 《日经亚洲评论》报道说，这将对整个东南亚经济版图产生影响。那么，越南经济高速增长的背后有哪 些原因？未来东南亚经济格局又将迎来哪些变化？ 外媒：越南经济表现突出，泰国承压 越南在公布第四季度最新的GDP增速后，不少泰国媒体予以关注。泰国"kaohoon international"报道称， 越南经济在2025年最后一个季度的表现好于预期，制造业、投资和贸易活力使该国经受住了美国关税的 考验。"越南仍然是世界上增长最快的经济体之一，其增长得益于积极的信贷投放、越南盾汇率的走弱 以及旅游业的复苏。" 对于新公布的GDP数据，越通社报道说， ...

一纸批复，牵动全球产业神经。 今天（12月18日）下午，中国商务部新闻发言人何亚东在例行发布会上，用一段看似平静的表述，向世界传递了一个关键信号：在实施出口管制后，中方已 收到并批准了部分中国出口商提交的稀土相关物项出口通用许可申请。发言人强调，这是在相关企业"出口和合规经验积累"后，达到"基本要求"的结果。 这则简短通告，迅速被国际主流财经媒体置于头版解读。其引发的关注热度，远超一次普通的技术性审批更新。原因在于，"稀土"二字从来就不仅仅是矿产 名词，而是国际高科技产业链的"维生素"、大国战略博弈的"风向标"。中国从实施管制到审慎批准，这一过程的每一步，都牵动着全球制造业的敏感神经。 此次"开闸"，绝非简单的放松，而是标志着中国对关键战略资源的管控，步入了一个更加成熟、精细、规则化的新阶段。 一、 从"管控"到"批准"：一套规则的成熟与一套信号的释放 为什么稀土如此牵动世界？因为它们是一系列尖端技术的"命门"。从高性能永磁体到激光晶体，从精密导弹制导系统到电动汽车驱动电机，再到风力发电机 和先进医疗设备，稀土元素不可或缺。中国拥有全球最完整的稀土产业链，供应了世界市场上绝大部分的稀土冶炼分离产品。这使得中国 ...

窦长宏表示，中信期货始终以打造专业的期货和衍生品综合服务商为导向，强化"场内+场外"、"期货 +现货"、"境内+境外"的综合服务能力提升，2025年公司保证金规模突破2000亿新高，成交、持仓、交 割规模均同比增长。公司不断做深做实产业服务，服务产业客户超过1万家，实现套保金额近8000亿 元；持续推出贴合产业链风险管理诉求的衍生产品结构和期现结合产品，风险子公司服务实体企业2000 余家，其中大部分为中小微企业，服务实体交易金额超1500亿元。国际化方面，引进来和走出去业务规 模均创历史新高，全球市场的交易结算承做能力持续增强。（记者 陈姗） 经济观察网 11月26日，中信期货董事长窦长宏在中信期货2026年度策略会上指出，2025年世界 在"破"与"立"的百年变局中激荡前行：一方面，旧有的全球秩序与贸易规则面临重构，关税博弈与地缘 竞合交织，加剧了全球产业链的重塑；另一方面，新一轮科技革命与绿色转型正冲破阻力，为全球经济 发展注入新的动能。展望2026年，全球政治经济格局的变化依然"风高浪急"，而国内又恰逢"十五五"开 局之年，在这新旧周期交替的关键节点，更需要我们积极主动把握历史机遇。 ...

Core Insights - Airbus has officially launched its second A320 assembly line in Tianjin, China, marking a significant milestone in its production strategy and enhancing its operational capacity in the region [2][3] Group 1: Production Expansion - The new assembly line is expected to be fully operational by early 2026, contributing to Airbus's goal of producing 75 A320 aircraft per month by 2027 [2] - With the addition of this line, Airbus's global assembly lines now total 10, including 4 in Hamburg, 2 in Toulouse, 2 in Mobile, and 2 in Tianjin [3] - The new facility will utilize the latest technology and processes, adhering to Airbus's highest global standards for aircraft production [3] Group 2: Strategic Importance of China - Since its establishment in 2008, the Tianjin assembly line has delivered over 780 A320 aircraft, with expectations to surpass 800 by the end of the year [4] - Approximately 25% of the aircraft produced in Tianjin in 2024 are projected to be delivered to international markets, highlighting the global role of the facility [4] - Airbus's commitment to the Chinese market is underscored by its long-standing partnership, which has evolved over 40 years since the first delivery of the A310 aircraft in 1985 [4] Group 3: Collaborative Growth - Airbus views its development in China as a process of co-creating prosperity, expanding collaboration beyond state-owned enterprises to include more private companies across various sectors [5][6] - The company emphasizes the importance of strong partnerships, which have been cultivated through its experience in Europe, to foster high-quality relationships with Chinese partners [6]

Core Viewpoint - The essence of the current tariff war is not merely the adjustment of tax rates, but a precise game surrounding the future reshaping of global industrial chains [25]. Group 1: Tariff War Dynamics - The recent escalation in the tariff war has seen Trump threaten a 100% tariff on Chinese goods and restrict software exports to China, prompting a series of countermeasures from China, including actions related to rare earths and shipping fees [2][5]. - Business leaders are adopting a more pragmatic approach, shifting from long-term investments to short-term flexibility in response to the uncertainty created by the tariff war [7][26]. - The current tariff war is characterized as a "chicken game," where both sides are aware that neither can afford to back down completely, leading to a stalemate [26]. Group 2: Trade Data and Market Adjustments - China's exports in September increased by 8.3% year-on-year, surpassing expectations, while the total trade value for the first three quarters of the year reached 33.61 trillion yuan, a 4% increase [30][29]. - Despite a 16.9% year-on-year decline in exports to the U.S. during the first three quarters, exports to ASEAN and the EU have seen significant growth, indicating a shift in trade dynamics [35][37]. - The resilience of Chinese exports is highlighted by a notable increase in exports to Africa, which grew by 27.3% year-on-year, showcasing the potential for market diversification [35][48]. Group 3: Strategic Insights for Businesses - Companies are increasingly recognizing the need to diversify their markets and reduce reliance on a single market, leading to what is termed a "super resilience transformation" [37][48]. - The future of trade will likely see a continued focus on regions such as Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America, as companies seek to navigate the complexities of the current geopolitical landscape [48][49]. - The importance of understanding both adversaries and allies in the context of the tariff war is emphasized, as companies need to be well-informed to adapt their strategies effectively [39][40].

Group 1 - The trade dispute between the US and China has entered a new phase, shifting from cooperation discussions to a focus on who will concede first [1] - The US has maintained a hardline stance on trade policies, with tariffs being redefined as part of "security considerations" and "industrial policy," particularly in technology and manufacturing [1][3] - China's traditional exports are declining as companies seek new markets in Southeast Asia, Latin America, and Africa, indicating a shift in commercial ties between the two nations [3] Group 2 - The US aims to reshape global supply chains to reduce dependency on China, encouraging companies to reassess their supply sources [4] - The US is actively promoting a "de-China" trade circle through technology cooperation with Japan and South Korea, and industrial transfers to Mexico, establishing a "non-China priority" supply system [6] - The US's anxiety about losing its core position in the global supply chain is driving its hardening trade policies [7] Group 3 - China's economic policy is increasingly focused on domestic circulation, aiming to boost internal demand and technological independence in response to external pressures [9] - Despite the tensions, China remains open to dialogue with the US, emphasizing the need to address structural issues such as technology restrictions and investment discrimination [10] - The upcoming APEC summit is seen as a potential platform for the US to seek trade agreements, particularly in agriculture and energy, but is unlikely to lead to a significant reconciliation [10][12] Group 4 - The ongoing trade conflict is not merely an economic issue but a strategic competition that could reshape the global order, with both nations vying for advantageous positions [12] - The outcome of this prolonged contest will depend on each country's ability to define its development direction amidst external challenges [12]

Core Insights - The stock private equity position index reached 78.41% as of September 19, indicating significant accumulation by private equity firms in the stock market [1] - Since August, the index has shown a steady increase from 73.93% to 78.41%, with a total rise of 4.48 percentage points [1] - The acceleration in the index growth was notable in September, increasing from 75.08% on September 5 to 78.04% on September 12, marking a weekly rise of 2.96 percentage points [1] Position Distribution - Over 80% of stock private equity firms have positions of 50% or more, with 60.01% having positions above 80% and 23.68% between 50% and 80% [1] - Only 5.13% of stock private equity firms maintain positions below 20%, indicating a general trend towards higher investment levels [1] Market Sentiment - The optimistic market sentiment is attributed to supportive policies and the promising outlook of emerging industries such as AI, semiconductors, and new energy [1] - Different scales of stock private equity show a "high at both ends, low in the middle" positioning, with smaller (under 500 million) and larger (over 5 billion) firms showing higher aggressiveness in their positions compared to medium-sized firms [2] Large-Scale Private Equity Activity - Large-scale private equity firms (over 10 billion) have shown a notable increase in positions, with a 12.84 percentage point rise in their index over two weeks [3] - More than 90% of these large firms have positions of 50% or more, with 54.33% above 80% [3] - The risk appetite among top private equity firms appears to be increasing, driven by opportunities in AI infrastructure and potential growth in various sectors [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, domestic commodities fluctuated and rebounded, with industrial products showing divergent trends and most agricultural products rebounding. The main reasons include the lower - than - expected US non - farm payroll data, the expectation of domestic anti - involution policies, and the impact of US trade policies [3]. - Overseas, the US "equivalent tariff" has come into effect, the US ISM services index is low, Fed officials have signaled rate cuts, and OPEC+ will increase production. In the domestic market, export growth is under pressure in the second half of the year, and inflation data shows a pattern of stable core CPI repair and PPI at the bottom [3]. - In the short term, market sentiment will still fluctuate, and commodities are expected to move in a volatile manner. Attention should be paid to changes in Sino - US economic and trade relations and the meeting between Russian and Ukrainian leaders [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views - **Influencing Factors and Main Logic** - **Review**: Domestic commodities rebounded this week. Industrial products diverged, and agricultural products mostly rebounded due to factors such as the weakening of the US dollar index, domestic policy expectations, and the impact of US tariffs [3]. - **Overseas**: The US "equivalent tariff" is in effect, the ISM services index is low, Fed officials signaled rate cuts, and OPEC+ will increase daily production by 548,000 barrels from September. The crude oil market may remain volatile and weak [3]. - **Domestic**: In July, exports and imports increased year - on - year, and the trade surplus narrowed slightly. However, exports will face slowdown pressure in the second half of the year. July inflation data showed that CPI may improve but remain low, and PPI will gradually improve with difficulty in turning positive this year [3]. - **Commodity Views**: The short - term market sentiment will fluctuate, and commodities will move in a volatile manner. Attention should be paid to Sino - US economic and trade relations and the Russia - Ukraine situation [3]. PART TWO: Overseas Situation Analysis - **US Tariffs**: The US "equivalent tariff" is in effect, with a 90 - day buffer period for China and the US. Non - US developed economies may face greater export shocks, and the impact on China's exports is complex. Future 232 industry tariffs may involve semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and key minerals [3]. - **ISM Services Index**: The US July ISM services index was 50.1, lower than expected and the previous value, close to the low point in May and the lowest level since June 2024 [3][11]. - **Fed Rate - cut Expectations**: Three Fed officials signaled rate cuts. Market expectations for a September rate cut have increased, especially considering the possible influence of Trump's appointment of Fed governors [3]. - **OPEC+ Production Increase**: OPEC+ will increase daily production by 548,000 barrels from September. The market may remain volatile and weak in the fourth quarter due to supply surplus and trade policy uncertainties [3][17]. PART THREE: Domestic Situation Analysis - **Trade Data**: In July, exports and imports increased year - on - year, and the trade surplus narrowed slightly. However, exports will face slowdown pressure in the second half of the year due to factors such as high US tariffs and the end of some trade benefits [3]. - **Inflation Data**: In July, CPI was 0%, better than expected, and PPI was - 3.6%, slightly lower than expected. CPI may improve but remain low, and PPI will gradually improve with difficulty in turning positive this year [3][24]. PART FOUR: High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Industry开工率**: As of August 8, the PTA开工率 was 75.24%, POY开工率 was 86.2%, and the weaving industry开工率 was 56% [32]. - **Other Data**: In July, some data such as the proportion of a certain indicator was 34.72%, 64.47%, 33.66%, and 1.01%. There were also data on sales volume and price changes [39].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite the changing international landscape, China's economy remains resilient, with GDP growth expected to exceed 5% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [1] - In the second half of the year, export growth may face pressure as the "export grabbing" effect diminishes, but macro policies will continue to support domestic demand growth [1] - China's policy approach is shifting towards a long-term stability model, as evidenced by recent structural reforms such as the removal of household registration restrictions for social insurance participation and the implementation of the Private Economy Promotion Law [1] - The upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" is a focal point for understanding the direction of future structural reforms [1] Group 2 - In the short term, increased tariffs will negatively impact trade, but in the long term, it will lead to a new round of industrial chain restructuring and changes in trade and investment flows [2] - China remains the largest exporter, with a projected global market share of 14.6% in 2024, while the U.S. continues to be the largest importer with a market share of 13.6% [2] - The largest export destination for China has shifted from the U.S. to ASEAN, while Mexico has become the largest source of imports for the U.S. [2] - Countries like Mexico and Vietnam, which have seen rapid export growth to the U.S., have absorbed significant foreign direct investment (FDI) in recent years, closely linked to the global industrial chain layout of Chinese enterprises [2] - China's manufacturing sector is undergoing a value chain upgrade, with a noticeable increase in the proportion of capital goods and intermediate goods in exports [2] - The added value of goods exported to the U.S. from countries like Mexico and Vietnam that originate from China has also significantly increased [2] - The overarching trend indicates that Chinese manufacturing continues to extend towards both ends of the "smile curve," with Chinese companies actively seeking higher added value and deeply embedding themselves in the global industrial chain [2]

Core Viewpoint - HSBC Global Investment Research indicates that the global economy may face increased downward pressure, with expected growth rates for global goods and services trade exports declining to 1.8% year-on-year by 2025, and global economic growth slowing to 2.5% during the same period [1][2]. Group 1: Global Economic Outlook - The "export rush" effect supported economic growth in non-U.S. major economies, including the EU and China, in the first quarter of the year, exceeding initial market expectations [2]. - Uncertainty surrounding tariff policies and macroeconomic policies, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, may lead to more downward pressure on the global economy [2]. - HSBC forecasts that global goods and services trade export growth rates will decline to 1.8% in 2025 and 0.6% in 2026, with global economic growth slowing to 2.5% in 2025 and 2.3% in 2026 [2]. Group 2: Inflation and Monetary Policy - U.S. inflation is expected to remain sticky, with projections indicating it will stay significantly above the Federal Reserve's 2% target until the end of 2026 [2]. - As a result, the Federal Reserve may only reduce policy interest rates by a cumulative 75 basis points by the end of 2026 [2]. - The uncertainty in tariff outlooks is causing businesses to delay investment decisions, potentially leading to a series of chain reactions that could further drag down economic growth [2]. Group 3: China's Economic Resilience - Despite the changing international landscape, China's economy remains resilient, with a focus on long-term stability through structural reforms [5]. - Recent structural reforms, such as the removal of household registration restrictions for social insurance and the implementation of the Private Economy Promotion Law, are aimed at long-term policy directions [5]. - The increase in tariffs is expected to have a negative short-term impact on trade, but long-term effects may lead to a new round of industrial chain restructuring and changes in trade and investment flows [5]. Group 4: Global Trade Dynamics - A survey conducted by HSBC revealed that 44% of global enterprises plan to increase trade with China, the highest among targeted markets, followed by Europe (43%) and the U.S. (39%) [7]. - In manufacturing, 40% of surveyed companies are currently or plan to increase production in China over the next two years, second only to Europe (45%) [7]. - Asian enterprises show a higher inclination to increase trade and manufacturing in China, with 54% and 52% respectively, indicating deepening economic ties within the region [7].