2025年那会儿，欧美可没少折腾人民币升值这事。特朗普上台没多久，就开始挥舞关税大棒，2月先以 芬太尼啥的为由，对中国进口货加了10%的税，3月又来一轮同样的，4月还搞了个对等关税，总税率直 奔20%。 欧盟也没闲着，4月出一份经济报告，点名道姓说人民币该升值了，得平衡全球贸易啥的。国际货币基 金组织年中那报告里，也老提中国该让货币浮动大点。 华盛顿那些政客在国会里嚷嚷汇率操纵，华尔街分析师们写报告预测人民币得破7，搞得中国出口得下 滑10%以上。他们这思路，还带着点上世纪80年代对日本的味，以为升值就能让中国货贵了，工厂关 了，他们制造业就回来了。 可结果呢，中国贸易顺差不降反升，全年砸出1.19万亿美元的新高。在岸汇率从年初7.2左右，慢慢升到 年末6.98附近，升了4.4%。海关数据明明白白，前11个月顺差1.08万亿，全年1.19万亿。工厂订单没 少，出口到非美市场猛增，欧美那算盘落空了。 欧美施压汇率升，中国稳住基本盘 国际货币基金组织报告里，建议中国允许更大浮动，匹配经济实力啥的。他们觉得，中国外贸顺差太 大，得用升值压缩。结果中国没慌，人民银行每天设中间价，用逆周期因子稳住，避免大起大落。 汇率 ...

可能有人还记得上世纪八十年代的广场协议，美国靠着这招直接把日本经济拖入了长达三十年的低迷。 如今这套老把戏又被搬出来针对中国，只是这次美国显然打错了算盘。 先靠舆论造势，说人民币被低估，把自己的贸易逆差怪到中国头上，还想把中国列为所谓"汇率操纵 国"，威胁加征高额关税。 1985年，美国联合其他四个西方国家，逼着日本签下广场协议，核心就是让日元升值。 短短两年时间，日元对美元就升值了超过五成，日本出口生意瞬间承压。 为了抵消影响，日本政府乱了阵脚，一会儿降息一会儿加息，反而吹大了股市和楼市的泡沫，泡沫一 破，经济就彻底垮了。 说到底，日本当时政治上依附美国，没能力反抗，只能被动接受，这才落得那般下场。 现在美国故技重施，套路和当年几乎一样。 2025年特朗普上台后，对中国商品的关税一涨再涨，欧盟也跟着跟风，对中国电动汽车加征38%的惩罚 性关税，试图复刻当年围堵日本的局面。 美国这么做，根源还是自己的经济出了大问题，国债突破34万亿美元，光利息就占了财政收入的两成。 但他不想着改善自身产业结构，反而想靠压别人货币升值转嫁危机，同时遏制中国发展。 但中国不是当年的日本，根本不吃这一套，反制措施一环扣一环，每一步 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall official reserves of Asian countries have surged to nearly $8 trillion, providing substantial "ammunition" for currency and fiscal authorities to defend their currencies against potential depreciation [1][4]. Group 1: Reserve Accumulation - Asian central banks have added over $400 billion to their official reserve assets this year, with the largest contributors being China and Japan, which increased their reserves by approximately $141 billion and $116 billion, respectively [4][5]. - The increase in reserves is attributed to the depreciation of the dollar and rising gold prices, which have boosted the valuation of non-dollar assets [4][5]. Group 2: Currency Interventions - The Indian rupee and Philippine peso have reached historical lows, while the South Korean won is near its weakest level in 16 years, prompting expectations of currency interventions by Asian central banks [4][6]. - The Indian central bank has actively intervened in both onshore and offshore markets to prevent the rupee from falling below its historical low of 88.80 against the dollar [5][6]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Risks - The recent rebound of the dollar since September has led to increased volatility in global stock markets, raising concerns among Asian central banks about the weakening of their currencies [4][10]. - There are potential risks of conflict with the U.S. government regarding currency interventions, as such actions could be viewed as unfair competitive advantages [7][10]. Group 4: Regulatory Environment - The U.S. Treasury has not labeled any country as a "currency manipulator" but has criticized some Asian nations for lacking transparency in their currency practices [10]. - Asian countries, including Japan, South Korea, Singapore, and Vietnam, are under close scrutiny regarding their currency behaviors, which could impact future trade agreements with the U.S. [10].

Core Viewpoint - The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has conducted its largest Swiss franc sell-off in over three years to counteract the currency's surge due to U.S. tariff policies, purchasing 5.1 billion Swiss francs (approximately 6.4 billion USD) in foreign exchange during the second quarter [1] Group 1 - The SNB's intervention marks the end of a 15-month hiatus in market interventions, reflecting increased market volatility since the announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" by Trump on April 2 [2] - Between April and June, the Swiss franc appreciated approximately 10% against the U.S. dollar and about 2% against the euro [2] - A joint statement from Switzerland and the U.S. emphasized that neither country would manipulate their currencies for economic advantage, with the SNB focusing on price stability [2] Group 2 - The SNB's President, Thomas Jordan, reiterated that the interventions aim to prevent excessive inflation, indicating a cautious approach in negotiations with traders [3] - Following the reduction of borrowing costs to zero, the SNB faces a choice between increasing currency purchases or introducing negative interest rates, but no such measures were taken in the recent policy decision [3] - The SNB publishes its trading data quarterly, with the data for July to September set to be released on December 31 [3]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the U.S. has agreed that South Korea is not manipulating its currency for trade advantages, which clears the way for South Korea to be removed from the U.S. Treasury's currency manipulation monitoring list [1] - This agreement alleviates pressure on South Korea in bilateral trade negotiations, although officials emphasize it is not directly related to ongoing currency swap discussions [2] - The U.S. had previously monitored South Korea's foreign exchange policies due to concerns over a large current account surplus and trade surplus with the U.S., leading to its inclusion on the monitoring list [2] Group 2 - South Korean officials indicated that the currency agreement is separate from discussions regarding a $350 billion investment commitment related to tariff negotiations [3] - There is a discrepancy in understanding between South Korea and the U.S. regarding the nature of the $350 billion investment, with South Korea viewing it primarily as loans rather than direct investments [3] - Analysts note that the resolution of the currency manipulation dispute creates better conditions for cooperation on other issues between the U.S. and South Korea [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in tariffs imposed by the U.S. on Swiss goods, reaching 39%, has shocked Switzerland, which had anticipated a lower rate following negotiations [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Impact - The new tariff rate of 39% is the highest among European countries and affects nearly 60% of Swiss exports to the U.S. [1] - The previous expectation was for a 10% tariff, with Swiss officials expressing disappointment over the significant deviation from prior negotiations [1][2]. Group 2: Economic Context - The U.S. cites a trade deficit of $38.3 billion with Switzerland as a reason for the high tariffs, claiming that the U.S. is at a disadvantage in bilateral trade [2] - Switzerland has been labeled a "currency manipulator" by the U.S. due to its attempts to devalue the Swiss franc to boost exports [2]. Group 3: Government Response - The Swiss government plans to continue negotiations with the U.S. to lower tariffs and may implement support measures for Swiss companies facing pressure from the tariffs [3] - Proposed measures include more flexible policies regarding working hours and wages to prevent layoffs [3].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. has imposed a 39% tariff on goods imported from Switzerland, marking a significant shift in trade relations and impacting Switzerland's economy, especially on its national holiday [1][2][4]. Group 1: Trade Relations - The U.S. trade deficit with Switzerland has surged, reaching nearly $50 billion in the first five months of the year, making Switzerland the fifth-largest trade partner for the U.S. [7] - Switzerland's exports to the U.S. account for approximately 19% of its total exports, highlighting the importance of the U.S. market for the Swiss economy [10]. - The U.S. Treasury has previously labeled Switzerland as a currency manipulator, indicating ongoing tensions regarding trade practices [12]. Group 2: Domestic Reactions in Switzerland - Following the tariff announcement, there has been significant criticism within Switzerland, particularly directed at Federal President Keller-Sutter for the perceived failure in negotiations [14][15]. - The pharmaceutical industry, which exports about 60% of its products to the U.S., has been blamed for straining U.S.-Swiss trade relations, with major companies like Novartis and Roche under scrutiny [17]. - There is a growing sentiment in Switzerland to reconsider its long-standing neutral stance and potentially strengthen ties with the EU, which has more favorable tariff rates with the U.S. [19]. Group 3: Economic Impact - If the tariffs remain unchanged, Switzerland's GDP could decline by approximately 0.6 percentage points, with more severe impacts if pharmaceuticals are excluded from tariff exemptions [21]. - The potential for tariffs on pharmaceuticals could reach as high as 200%, further exacerbating the economic challenges faced by the Swiss economy [21].

Group 1 - The U.S. will impose a 39% tariff on goods imported from Switzerland starting August 7, making Switzerland one of the few countries facing such high tariffs, second only to Brazil, Laos, Myanmar, and Syria [1][2] - The announcement coincided with Switzerland's National Day on August 1, which has been described as a significant humiliation for the country [2] - The trade deficit between the U.S. and Switzerland has surged, reaching nearly $50 billion in the first five months of the year, ranking Switzerland as the fifth largest trade deficit partner of the U.S. [5] Group 2 - Swiss officials were caught off guard by the high tariffs, as they believed negotiations with U.S. representatives were progressing well, with Switzerland expressing confidence in reaching a trade agreement [3][9] - The Swiss economy is heavily reliant on foreign trade, with approximately 19% of its exports going to the U.S., making it the largest export market for Switzerland [9] - The Swiss pharmaceutical industry, which exports about 60% of its products to the U.S., is under scrutiny, as it has been suggested that it may have hindered negotiations with the U.S. [12] Group 3 - The Swiss stock market is expected to open lower following the tariff announcement, with major companies like Novartis, Roche, and Nestlé listed on the Swiss exchange [12] - Analysts predict that if the tariffs remain unchanged, Switzerland's GDP could decline by approximately 0.6 percentage points, with more severe impacts if pharmaceuticals are excluded from tariff exemptions [13]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Department has added Ireland and Switzerland to its "currency monitoring list," increasing the total number of closely monitored countries to nine, despite no major trading partners being accused of currency manipulation for unfair trade advantages in 2024 [1][3]. Group 1: Currency Monitoring List - Ireland and Switzerland were added to the currency monitoring list due to their significant trade surplus with the U.S. exceeding $15 billion and a current account surplus over 3% of their GDP [3]. - The report indicates that countries are automatically placed on the monitoring list if they meet specific criteria related to trade surplus and foreign exchange purchasing behavior [3]. Group 2: Responses and Implications - The Swiss National Bank denied any currency manipulation, asserting that it does not attempt to distort trade balances or gain unfair competitive advantages [3]. - The report marks the first currency policy report since Trump's return to the White House, with a noticeably stronger tone compared to previous reports during Biden's administration, which did not label any country as a currency manipulator [3]. - The overall strength of the U.S. dollar has increased by an average of 7% against major currencies in 2024, reducing the incentive for countries to devalue their currencies [3].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury has placed South Korea back on the "currency manipulation watch list" due to its significant trade surpluses, indicating a political maneuver rather than a purely technical assessment of currency practices [1][3][4]. Group 1: Economic Data and Trends - South Korea's trade surplus with the U.S. surged from $14 billion in 2024 to $55 billion, while its current account surplus increased from 1.8% to 5.3% of GDP [3]. - The U.S. Treasury's criteria for "currency manipulation" lack international consensus and are unilaterally defined, leading to inconsistent application based on political contexts [3][4]. Group 2: Political Implications - The re-inclusion of South Korea on the watch list serves as a warning signal in the context of U.S.-Korea trade and industrial competition, aiming to pressure South Korea into concessions regarding its industrial policies and exports to the U.S. [4][6]. - The U.S. strategy reflects a broader trend of exerting pressure on allied nations in the Indo-Pacific region, highlighting growing tensions in trade, finance, and technology sectors despite strong military ties [6][8]. Group 3: Global Financial System Impact - The U.S. Treasury's actions undermine the multilateral mechanisms for currency monitoring established by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), contributing to the politicization of the international financial system [6][8]. - The use of the "currency manipulation watch list" as a policy tool may lead to increased uncertainty in global finance, affecting investor confidence and the stability of smaller economies [8].