Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The hog price rebounded from a low level, with positive factors such as second - fattening entry and increased demand due to cooler weather, but high slaughterhouse enthusiasm and slow demand recovery may limit the rebound height [5] - The corn price in the spot market continued to decline with regional differences, and the futures price was volatile. The narrowing of the short - term price decline was due to factors like expanded state reserve purchases and slower selling by farmers. The market may operate in a bottom - range in the short term [6][8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Hog - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Last week, the hog futures fluctuated and rebounded. The LH2601 contract closed at 12,175 yuan/ton, up 3.05% from the previous week's settlement price. The national average market price of outer - ternary live hogs was 11.95 yuan/kg, a week - on - week increase of 0.68 yuan/kg [5] - **Profit Situation**: As of October 24, the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised hogs was - 185.65 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 59.02 yuan/head; the breeding profit of purchased piglets was - 289.07 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 86.22 yuan/head. The hog - grain ratio was 5.15, up 0.2 week - on - week [5] - **Market Analysis**: The overall slaughter progress of farms was normal, and the entry of second - fattening was active, which alleviated the market supply pressure to some extent. With the temperature drop, the demand improved, and the trading of medium and large hogs was fair. However, the high enthusiasm of farms to sell and the slow recovery of demand may limit the short - term rebound height of hog prices [5] Corn - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Last week, the corn futures rose first and then fell. The C2601 contract closed at 2,133 yuan/ton, up 0.23% from the previous week's settlement price. The national average spot price of corn was 2,248.63 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 14.51 yuan/ton. There were price differences in different ports [6] - **Deep - processing Consumption**: From October 16 to 22, 2025, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 126.33 million tons of corn, a week - on - week increase of 4.03 million tons. The processing volume of 60 corn starch enterprises decreased, while the production and operation rate of 35 corn alcohol sample enterprises increased significantly [7] - **Inventory Situation**: As of October 22, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 262.2 million tons, an increase of 6.50%. As of October 24, the total corn inventory of the four northern ports was about 95 million tons, and the corn inventory in Guangdong ports was 57.7 million tons [7][8] - **Market Analysis**: The national corn spot market continued to decline with regional differences. The enthusiasm of farmers in the Northeast to sell grain decreased, and the market quotation was stable with a slight upward trend. The arrival volume of deep - processing enterprises in North China first decreased and then increased, and the purchase price mainly declined. The short - term decline of corn prices narrowed, and the market may operate in a bottom - range in the short term [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The spot price of live pigs has short - term support [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - **Prices**: Henan spot price is 11,980 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 100; Sichuan spot price is 11,700 yuan/ton with no year - on - year change; Guangdong spot price is 11,660 yuan/ton with no year - on - year change. Futures prices for生猪2511,生猪2601, and生猪2603 are 11,490 yuan/ton (-25 year - on - year), 12,175 yuan/ton (-25 year - on - year), and 11,570 yuan/ton (-40 year - on - year) respectively [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Trading volume for生猪2511,生猪2601, and生猪2603 are 10,504 hands (600 more than the previous day), 102,151 hands (20,620 more than the previous day), and 20,428 hands (4,824 more than the previous day) respectively. Open interest for生猪2511,生猪2601, and生猪2603 are 16,370 hands (-1,376 compared to yesterday), 112,397 hands (5,026 more than yesterday), and 89,282 hands (3,691 more than yesterday) respectively [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis for生猪2511,生猪2601, and生猪2603 are 490 yuan/ton (125 year - on - year), -195 yuan/ton (125 year - on - year), and 410 yuan/ton (140 year - on - year) respectively. The 生猪11 - 1 spread is -685 yuan/ton with no year - on - year change, and the 生猪1 - 3 spread is 605 yuan/ton with a 15 year - on - year increase [2]. 3.2 Market Information - The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view. The trend strength ranges from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3]. 3.3 Futures Research - Yuexiu and Yangxiang have added delivery warehouses. - In September, the national feed output of the Feed Industry Association was 30.36 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3.4% and a year - on - year increase of 5% [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic pig market is expected to see a double - reduction in supply and demand this week. Pig prices are likely to be weak in the short - term, with a mid - term trend of bottoming out and then oscillating. The LH2601 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 12,000 - 12,400 [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The supply of pigs and pork is expected to decrease this week. The market may experience a double - reduction in supply and demand, with short - term weak pig prices and a mid - term oscillating pattern. Attention should be paid to the monthly group - farm slaughter rhythm and the dynamics of the secondary fattening market [10]. 2. Recent News - China's additional tariffs on pork imports from the US and Canada boost market confidence. After the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, the pig market shows a double - reduction in supply and demand, with short - term weak spot prices and a mid - term oscillating pattern [12]. - Pig demand has weakened in the short - term after the festivals, but spot prices are supported by reduced supply and may bottom out and rebound. The short - term profit of pig farming has worsened, and the enthusiasm for slaughtering large pigs has decreased, supporting the short - term price expectations of pig futures and spot [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish**: Domestic pig supply enters the off - season after the long holiday, and the room for further decline in domestic pig spot prices may be limited [13]. - **Bearish**: There is a pessimistic expectation in the domestic macro - environment due to the Sino - US tariff war, and the year - on - year increase in domestic pig inventory [13]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on pig slaughter and fresh meat demand [13]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply - side**: As of June 30, the pig inventory was 424.47 million, a 0.4% month - on - month increase and a 2.2% year - on - year increase. As of the end of June, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.42 million, a 0.02% month - on - month increase and a 4.2% year - on - year increase [10]. - **Demand - side**: After the long holiday, the overall consumer willingness of residents has weakened, suppressing short - term fresh pork consumption [10]. - **Price - related**: The national average spot price is 11,770 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 2601 contract is 405 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [10]. 5. Position Data - The net position of the main players is short, and short positions are increasing [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Gold**: The US September CPI data led to market expectations of Fed rate - cuts. The strong US dollar is bearish for gold, but gold buying power remains strong. Gold is expected to oscillate at a high level in the medium - term [1]. - **Soda Ash**: The domestic soda ash market is weakly stable. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with support at 1220. It is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long on dips [2]. - **Rebar**: The medium - long - term over - capacity in the steel industry may be alleviated, but short - term impact is limited. Rebar demand is improving but at a low level. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short - term [4]. - **Iron Ore**: Supply is relatively stable, and demand is supported by high iron - water levels. However, the profit contraction of steel mills and the end of the peak season limit demand. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [5]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply is tightening, and demand from downstream and intermediate sectors is strong. The coal price is strong, and the futures price is expected to be supported in the short - term [6]. - **Pigs**: With increased demand due to lower temperatures and reduced slaughter pressure, the pig price may strengthen after adjustment. The futures price is expected to rebound at the bottom in the short - term [7]. - **Palm Oil**: As the traditional production - reduction season approaches in November, the futures price may recover. However, due to expected ample supply, the spot price is under pressure. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [7]. - **Soybeans**: Imported soybean spot market is firm, and domestic demand is strong. Bean 2 is expected to stabilize in the short - term. Domestic new - season soybeans are strong [8]. - **Medium - Long - Term Treasury Bonds**: Liquidity is loose, which supports the bond market. But with the stock market breaking through the previous range, the bond market operation is more difficult. It is expected to oscillate with a slightly bearish bias in the medium - term [9]. - **Silver**: US economic data in October is positive, which is bullish for silver. With a high probability of rate - cuts in October, the downside is limited. It is long - term bullish and short - term oscillating [9]. - **PVC**: Domestic PVC production is expected to increase, while demand is entering the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with support at 4695 for the 01 contract. It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **Methanol**: Domestic methanol production is at a high level, and downstream demand is stable. The port inventory is accumulating slightly. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, with resistance at 2300. It is recommended to wait for further stabilization [11]. - **Crude Oil**: The crude oil market is in a game between short - term geopolitical bullish factors and long - term supply - demand bearish factors. A short - term low - level bullish approach is recommended [11]. 3. Summary by Variety Gold - US September CPI rose 3% year - on - year, lower than expected. Core CPI and service inflation slowed. The market fully priced in two 25 - basis - point Fed rate cuts [1]. - The strong US dollar is bearish for gold, but buying power remains strong. Gold may oscillate at a high level in the medium - term [1]. Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy - quality soda ash is 1271 yuan/ton, with stable recent prices. Weekly production is 74.05 tons, down 3.93% week - on - week [2]. - Total inventory of soda ash manufacturers is 170.21 tons, up 0.09% week - on - week. The float glass market has stable start - up, rising inventory, and average trading [2]. Rebar - The blast - furnace start - up rate of 247 steel mills is 84.71%, up 0.44 percentage points week - on - week. The iron - making capacity utilization rate is 89.94%, down 0.39 percentage points [4]. - Steel mill profitability is 47.62%, down 7.79 percentage points week - on - week. Daily average pig - iron output is 239.9 tons, down 1.05 tons week - on - week [4]. Iron Ore - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports is 14423.59 tons, up 145.32 tons week - on - week. The daily average port clearance volume is 312.65 tons, down 3.07 tons [5]. - The number of ships at ports is 107, down 17. Supply is stable, and demand is supported by high iron - water levels, but profit contraction affects demand [5]. Coking Coal - The capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises is 73.47%, down 0.77%. Daily coke production is 64.61 tons, down 0.68 tons [6]. - Coke inventory is 58.64 tons, up 1.35 tons. Coking coal inventory is 1029.70 tons, up 32.33 tons. Supply is tightening, and demand is strong [6]. Pigs - As of October 24, the average slaughter weight of pigs is 123.21 kg, down 0.22 kg. The weekly slaughter start - up rate is 35.3%, down 0.34% [7]. - The profit of purchasing piglets for breeding is - 279.65 yuan/head, up 67.28 yuan/head. The self - breeding profit is - 149.54 yuan/head, up 53.28 yuan/head [7]. Palm Oil - The estimated export volume of Malaysian palm oil from October 1 - 25 is 1283814 tons, down 0.4%. The futures price may recover in November, but spot price is under pressure [7]. Soybeans - In the 43rd week (October 18 - 24), the actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills is 236.74 tons, with a start - up rate of 65.13%. The 44th - week start - up rate is expected to decline slightly [8]. Medium - Long - Term Treasury Bonds - The central bank will conduct 900 billion yuan of MLF operations on October 27, with a net investment of 200 billion yuan. Liquidity is loose, but the bond market operation is difficult due to the stock market [9]. Silver - The US October manufacturing, service, and composite PMI are all better than expected. Economic data is positive for silver, and the downside is limited due to expected rate - cuts [9]. PVC - The price of East China SG - 5 type PVC is 4600 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate is 76.57%, down 0.12% week - on - week [10]. - Social inventory is 103.52 tons, down 0.13% week - on - week. Domestic production is expected to increase, and demand is entering the off - season [10]. Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang is 2240 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The domestic weekly capacity utilization rate is 87.4%, down 2.13% [11]. - Port inventory is 151.22 tons, up 2.08 tons week - on - week. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [11]. Crude Oil - After the US sanctions on Russian oil companies, Reliance Industries stops buying Russian oil. The market is in a game between short - term geopolitical and long - term supply - demand factors [11].

Group 1 - The agricultural and fishery ETF (159275) showed stable performance with a 0.1% increase in price and a transaction volume of 1.9989 million yuan, bringing the fund's total size to 208 million yuan [1] - Key performing stocks included Zhongxing Junye, Xiaoming Co., and Biological Co., with increases of 4.76%, 4.1%, and 3.16% respectively, while Chenguang Biological, Shennong Seed Industry, and Zhangzidao experienced declines of 2.78%, 1.32%, and 1.27% [1] - Brazil's soybean import prices reached a historic high in mid-October, leading nearly 100 domestic grain and oil companies to suspend purchases of soybeans for December and January, affecting approximately 8 million tons [1] Group 2 - The pig farming industry is experiencing increased supply and rising prices due to higher demand for fat pigs, but continued losses in farming may accelerate capacity reduction [2] - The poultry farming sector faces uncertainty in breeding stock imports due to frequent outbreaks of avian influenza overseas, which may benefit the white feather chicken industry chain prices [2] - The animal health industry is expected to see a recovery in demand, with new product launches providing growth momentum, while the pet market continues to grow rapidly domestically [2]

Core Points - The company, Luo Niu Shan, is facing significant operational pressure, with a substantial decline in both revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 compared to the previous year [1][3][4] - The decline in performance is attributed to challenges in its two main business segments: real estate and pig farming, with pig prices remaining low [1][4] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, Luo Niu Shan reported approximately 1.6 billion yuan in revenue, a year-on-year decrease of nearly 37%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 279.93 million yuan, down 99% [1][3] - The company's revenue and net profit have been declining for three consecutive quarters, with the revenue for Q1, Q2, and Q3 of 2025 being 451 million yuan, 633 million yuan, and 544 million yuan respectively, showing a year-on-year decline of 50.74%, 38.48%, and 13.99% [3][4] - The gross margin and net margin for the first three quarters of 2025 were 13.72% and 1.01%, respectively, down 6.83 percentage points and 13.01 percentage points from the same period last year [6] Business Diversification and Challenges - Luo Niu Shan has a history of aggressive diversification into various sectors, including real estate, education, and finance, but has struggled to achieve significant profitability [2][7] - The company had previously announced a major investment of 28.8 billion yuan in an international horse racing project, which ultimately did not materialize [8] - Despite attempts to focus on its core business, the company's ability to withstand market fluctuations remains a concern, as indicated by its deteriorating financial metrics [9][10] Financial Health - As of September 30, 2025, Luo Niu Shan had cash and cash equivalents of 363 million yuan and interest-bearing liabilities of 1.56 billion yuan, indicating financial strain [2][10] - The company's operating cash flow turned negative for the first time in four years, with a net cash flow of -72.56 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a decline of 162.61% year-on-year [10]

Core Insights - The agricultural sector in China has shown a positive trend in the first three quarters of the year, with a year-on-year increase of 3.6% in the value added by agriculture [1] - The overall grain production is expected to achieve another bumper harvest this year, supported by stable policies and favorable conditions [2][3] Agricultural Production - The total summer grain and early rice production reached 178.25 million tons, an increase of 190,000 tons from the previous year [1] - Summer grain production faced slight challenges but remained stable, with a total output of 299.48 billion pounds, a minor decrease of 3.1 million pounds or 0.1% [2] - Early rice production increased by 6.8 million pounds, marking a growth of 1.2% [2] Livestock Production - Livestock production has shown steady growth, with a total meat output of 73.12 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.8% [1][3] - The number of pigs slaughtered reached 529.92 million heads, an increase of 962,000 heads or 1.8% [3] - The production of pork, beef, and poultry meat has also increased, with pork production rising by 3% to 43.68 million tons [3][4] Market Conditions - The agricultural product market remains stable, with producer prices decreasing by 3.6% year-on-year [5] - Price trends show a widening decline, with a 4.5% drop in the third quarter [5][6] - Certain agricultural products, such as live cattle and sheep, have shown signs of price recovery, with live sheep prices turning positive in the third quarter [6] Future Outlook - The government aims to enhance food security, targeting a stable grain production of over 1.3 trillion pounds during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, with expectations to exceed 1.4 trillion pounds in 2024 [6]

Group 1: Agricultural Production Overview - In the first three quarters, the agricultural value added increased by 3.6% year-on-year, with summer grain and early rice production totaling 178.25 million tons, an increase of 190,000 tons from the previous year [1] - The livestock production showed stable growth, with a total meat output of 73.12 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.8% [1][3] Group 2: Grain Production and Policies - The government has implemented policies to support grain production, including minimum purchase prices and subsidies, which have encouraged farmers to increase grain planting [2] - Summer grain production faced slight challenges but remained stable, with a total output of 299.48 billion pounds, a decrease of 31 million pounds or 0.1% from the previous year [2] - Early rice production increased by 6.8 billion pounds, marking a growth of 1.2% [2] Group 3: Livestock Production Details - Pig production is a key focus, with pig slaughter numbers reaching 529.92 million heads, an increase of 9.62 million heads or 1.8% year-on-year [3][4] - The total pork output was 43.68 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 128,000 tons or 3% [3] - Cattle and sheep production remained stable, with beef output at 5.5 million tons, an increase of 3.3% [4] Group 4: Agricultural Product Market Dynamics - The agricultural producer price index decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, indicating a stable market supply [5] - Prices for major agricultural products showed mixed trends, with grain prices slightly declining, while some livestock prices experienced increases [6] - The overall agricultural market is expected to maintain stability, supported by a solid foundation of grain production [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The agricultural economy in China is showing a stable and positive trend, with significant increases in summer grain and early rice production, alongside steady growth in livestock production [1][2][7]. Group 1: Agricultural Production - In the first three quarters, the agricultural (planting) added value increased by 3.6% year-on-year [1]. - The total production of summer grain and early rice reached 178.25 million tons, an increase of 190,000 tons compared to the previous year [1]. - Summer grain production was stable, with a total output of 299.48 billion pounds, slightly down by 3.1 billion pounds or 0.1% year-on-year [2]. - Early rice production increased to 57.03 billion pounds, up by 6.8 billion pounds or 1.2% year-on-year [2]. - The combined increase in summer grain and early rice production was 3.7 billion pounds, laying a solid foundation for a good harvest for the year [2]. Group 2: Livestock Production - Livestock production showed steady growth, with a total output of 73.12 million tons of pork, beef, lamb, and poultry, an increase of 2.68 million tons or 3.8% year-on-year [3]. - The number of pigs slaughtered reached 529.92 million heads, an increase of 9.62 million heads or 1.8% year-on-year, marking three consecutive quarters of growth [3]. - Pork production increased to 43.68 million tons, up by 1.28 million tons or 3% year-on-year [3]. - The production of beef and milk also saw increases, with beef output at 5.5 million tons (up 3.3%) and milk production at 29.21 million tons (up 0.7%) [4]. Group 3: Market Conditions - The agricultural product market is operating smoothly, with producer prices down by 3.6% year-on-year, indicating a stable supply [5]. - Prices for major agricultural products showed mixed trends, with grain prices slightly declining, such as wheat down by 2.5% and corn down by 5.3% [6]. - The overall price stability in the agricultural market is supported by a solid foundation of grain security, with total grain production expected to stabilize above 1.3 trillion pounds during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [6].

Core Viewpoint - Sichuan's agricultural sector shows steady growth, with a total output value of 825.77 billion yuan in the first three quarters, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.5% and a slight acceleration compared to the first half of the year [3] Group 1: Agricultural Production Growth - The agricultural industry in Sichuan has demonstrated a positive growth trajectory, with vegetable and edible fungus production increasing by 4.4% year-on-year, and livestock output also showing improved growth rates [4] - The planting industry achieved an output value of 541.02 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.6%, driven primarily by economic crops such as vegetables, fruits, and tea, which contributed 97% to this growth [5] - Sichuan's grain production is expected to exceed the annual target of 72.5 billion jin, supported by enhanced subsidy policies and competitive high-yield initiatives [5] Group 2: Livestock and Other Sectors - Sichuan is the leading province in China for pig farming, with livestock output value reaching 196.73 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, indicating a recovery in the livestock sector [6] - Forestry and fishery sectors also showed growth, with forestry output value increasing by 9.8% to 37.54 billion yuan, and fishery output value rising by 6.6% to 29.81 billion yuan [6] Group 3: Industry Chain Enhancement - Sichuan's agricultural enterprises are actively participating in the China International Agricultural Products Trade Fair, showcasing over 200 products and achieving significant sales [7] - The province is focusing on integrating production, processing, and branding within its agricultural sectors, particularly in ten key industries, to enhance overall value [8] - A comprehensive plan has been initiated to strengthen the agricultural industry chain, with significant investments and support for key enterprises [9] Group 4: Policy Support and Future Outlook - High-quality policies are being implemented to boost the agricultural sector, including equipment upgrades and efficient breeding technology promotion, which have led to profitability for large-scale farming enterprises [10] - Ongoing efforts to address issues such as low processing rates and short supply chains are expected to further enhance the agricultural output and value in Sichuan [10]