证券研究报告 | 金融工程 gszqdatemark 2025 12 05 年 月 日 量化点评报告 行业 ETF 配置模型 2025 年超额 16.4% 根据景气度-趋势-拥挤度框架，我们有"强趋势－低拥挤"和"高景气－ 强趋势"两套行业轮动方案。趋势拥挤模型本月推荐农业、传媒、建材、 轻工行业；景气趋势模型本月推荐非银、计算机、家电、煤炭等行业。相 较于上个月，模型明显由高切低，增配金融周期板块。 ① 行业主线模型：相对强弱指标。2024 年出现 RS>90 的行业有：煤炭、 电力及公用事业、家电、银行、石油石化、通信、有色金属、农林牧渔和 汽车。经过全年验证，这些行业确实阶段性地成为了市场的行情主线，上 半年主要是高股息、资源品和出海，下半年主要是 AI。截止到 2025 年 4 月底，共 17 个行业出现 RS>90 的信号，以 TMT 板块、银行、制造和部 分消费行业为主。今年 4 月底前几乎半数行业曾表现强势，行业主线判断 难度较大，四季度配置建议以均衡为主，目前与行业轮动模型选出行业基 本重合。 ② 行业轮动模型：景气度-趋势-拥挤度框架。12 月行业配置组合权重为： 传媒 16%、农林牧渔 1 ...

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors for analysis[1][2][3]

Core Viewpoint - The market is transitioning towards a "spring rally" with potential catalysts emerging, particularly as the year-end approaches and new policies are anticipated [2][13]. Group 1: Market Trends and Strategies - The strategy for 2026 emphasizes embracing "Galloping Assets" which are global competitive leaders, indicating a shift towards value reassessment [1][12]. - The A-share market has shown a recovery with the Shanghai Composite Index rising over 10% to above 3800 points [1][12]. - The current market phase is characterized by a period of observation and consolidation, with the potential for a spring rally to begin as early as December [2][13]. Group 2: Spring Rally Insights - The "spring rally" is expected to occur around the Lunar New Year, typically 1-2 weeks prior, with historical data suggesting a strong upward trend during this period [3][5]. - The likelihood of a spring rally varies based on market conditions: high during bottom-stimulus periods, moderate during continuation phases, and limited during downturns [4][6]. - Key indicators for the timing of the rally include significant new positive or negative developments, with potential early triggers in December [6][10]. Group 3: Sector and Style Preferences - The market favors smaller-cap indices like CSI 1000 and CSI 2000, which have shown a nearly 90% success rate with an average excess return of over 4% [6][19]. - Growth and technology sectors are highlighted as having an 80% success rate, also with an average excess return of over 4% [7][19]. - The top-performing industries are expected to be in the first tier: computer, communication, and electronics, with a second tier including machinery, chemicals, and military industries, all showing excess returns of over 3% [8][19]. Group 4: Long-term Investment Directions - The focus for long-term investments includes quality cyclical stocks benefiting from policy expectations in sectors like real estate, consumer goods, and resources [10][20]. - The strategy for the upcoming year includes a focus on "Galloping Assets" that align with China's economic transformation and global competition, particularly in technology, high-end manufacturing, consumption, and resource sectors [10][20].

Market Overview - The three major indices rebounded this week, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.37%, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 1.26%, and the ChiNext Index up by 1.86% [1][18]. Sector Performance - Active sectors this week included commercial aerospace and food stocks, which showed significant movement [1][18]. Top Gainers - The top-performing stocks included: - Jiarong Technology, which surged by 67.18% and reached new highs during the week [20][21]. - Other notable gainers included Zhaobiao Co. (up 58.43%), Haiwang Biological (up 55.59%), Aerospace Development (up 52.26%), and Anji Food (up 50.23%) [20][21]. Top Losers - On the downside, 93 stocks fell by more than 10%, with *ST Lifang leading the decline at -48.21% [4][20]. - Other significant losers included Binhai Energy (down 25.82%), Langchao Software (down 20.91%), and Yunzhu Technology (down 20.19%) [4][20]. Trading Activity - A total of 64 stocks had a turnover rate exceeding 100%, with Beilong Precision leading at 228.83% [6][22]. - The sectors with high turnover rates included defense, machinery, and computers [6][22]. Capital Flow - The metals, building materials, and coal sectors attracted significant capital inflows, with the non-ferrous metals sector seeing a net inflow of 5.94 billion yuan [8][24]. - C China Uranium received the highest net inflow at 36.54 billion yuan, followed by Tianfu Communication (26.74 billion yuan) and BOE Technology (18.05 billion yuan) [8][24]. Institutional Research - Jiarong Technology was the most researched stock this week, with 187 institutions participating in its survey [12][28]. - Other companies receiving attention included Tianhua New Energy and Sanxia Tourism, each with over 50 institutions involved [12][28]. New Institutional Interests - Institutions showed first-time interest in 45 stocks this week, with 10 stocks receiving target prices [30][31]. - Notable mentions include Rongqi Technology, rated "Buy" with a target price of 96.11 yuan, and Danah Biotechnology, also rated "Buy" with a target price of 102 yuan [31][32].

Market Performance - The three major indices rebounded this week, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.37%, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 1.26%, and the ChiNext Index gaining 1.86% [1][3]. Stock Highlights - 14 stocks saw a price increase of over 30% this week, with the highest being environmental stock Jiarong Technology, which surged by 67.18% [4][5]. - Other notable gainers include Zhaobiao Co. (58.43%), Haiwang Bio (55.59%), Aerospace Development (52.26%), and Anji Food (50.23%) [5]. - On the downside, 93 stocks experienced a decline of over 10%, with *ST Lifang leading with a drop of 48.21% [4][5]. Trading Activity - 64 stocks had a turnover rate exceeding 100%, with Beilong Precision leading at 228.83% [6][7]. - The sectors with high turnover rates included defense, machinery, and computer industries, with Zhaobiao Co., Aerospace Development, and Haixin Food showing significant price increases [6]. Capital Flow - The non-ferrous metals, building materials, and coal industries attracted significant capital inflow, with the non-ferrous metals sector receiving a net inflow of 5.94 billion yuan [8]. - Individual stocks with the highest net inflows included C China Uranium (3.654 billion yuan), Tianfu Communication (2.674 billion yuan), and BOE A (1.805 billion yuan) [9]. Institutional Research - 292 listed companies were surveyed by institutions this week, with Jierui Co. receiving the most attention from 187 institutions [12][13]. - Other companies like Tianhua New Energy and Sanxia Tourism also garnered interest from over 50 institutions [12]. New Institutional Interests - 45 stocks were newly favored by institutions this week, with 10 stocks receiving target prices [15][16]. - Notable mentions include Rongqi Technology, which received a "Buy" rating from Northeast Securities with a target price of 96.11 yuan [16][17].

Core Insights - During the past week, 64 stocks had a turnover rate exceeding 100%, indicating high trading activity in the market [1] - Among these, Beilong Precision topped the list with a weekly turnover rate of 228.83%, while Jingchuang Electric also surpassed 200% [1] - The sectors with stocks having turnover rates over 100% predominantly include defense, machinery, and computer industries [1] - In terms of weekly price performance, stocks such as Zhaobiao Co., Aerospace Development, and Haixin Food saw significant gains, each exceeding 30% [1]

个股方面，本周C中国铀（001280）、天孚通信（300394）、京东方A获主力净流入居前，分别为36.54 亿元、26.74亿元、18.05亿元；净流出方面，香农芯创（300475）、蓝色光标（300058）、中兴通讯遭 主力净流出居前，分别为32.11亿元、26.93亿元、24.21亿元。 每经AI快讯，按申万一级行业来看，本周有色金属、建筑材料、煤炭三大行业获得主力资金青睐，其 中，有色金属行业获主力净流入5.94亿元；在净流出方面，电子设备、计算机、电子行业均遭抛售超百 亿元。 ...

Core Insights - The South Korean government forecasts that the country's export value will exceed $700 billion for the first time in 2025, setting a new historical record, although exports excluding semiconductors are expected to decline year-on-year [1][3][4]. Export Performance - From January to November, South Korea's total export value reached $640.2 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, the highest level for the same period, surpassing the previous record of $628.7 billion in 2022 [1][3]. - Exports excluding semiconductors amounted to $487.6 billion during the same period, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1.5% [5]. Sector-Specific Trends - The automotive, shipbuilding, biopharmaceutical, and computer sectors saw export growth of 2%, 28.6%, 7%, and 0.4%, respectively, while all other sectors experienced declines [5]. - Notable declines were observed in machinery exports (down 8.9%), petroleum products (down 11.1%), petrochemicals (down 11.7%), and steel exports (down 8.8%). Additionally, exports of automotive parts, displays, home appliances, and secondary batteries fell by 6.3%, 10.3%, 9.4%, and 11.8%, respectively [5]. Semiconductor Dependency - In November, semiconductors accounted for 28.3% of South Korea's total export value, the highest proportion recorded this year, raising concerns about the country's over-reliance on the semiconductor industry [5]. - Historically, from 2002 to 2010, semiconductors represented about 10% of South Korea's total exports [5].

Group 1 - The core industries favored by major capital this week are non-ferrous metals, building materials, and coal, with non-ferrous metals receiving a net inflow of 594 million yuan [1] - In terms of net outflows, the electronic equipment, computer, and electronics sectors experienced significant sell-offs exceeding 10 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - Individual stocks with the highest net inflows include China Uranium, Tianfu Communication, and BOE Technology Group, with inflows of 3.654 billion yuan, 2.674 billion yuan, and 1.805 billion yuan respectively [1] - Conversely, the stocks with the largest net outflows are Shannon Chip, BlueFocus Communication Group, and ZTE Corporation, with outflows of 3.211 billion yuan, 2.693 billion yuan, and 2.421 billion yuan respectively [1]

国家知识产权局信息显示，湖北鼎龙控股股份有限公司取得一项名为"具有高折射率的油墨组合物及其 应用"的专利，授权公告号CN117924998B，申请日期为2024年1月。 天眼查资料显示，武汉柔显科技股份有限公司，成立于2017年，位于武汉市，是一家以从事化学原料和 化学制品制造业为主的企业。企业注册资本5956.7万人民币。通过天眼查大数据分析，武汉柔显科技股 份有限公司共对外投资了3家企业，参与招投标项目4次，财产线索方面有商标信息50条，专利信息51 条，此外企业还拥有行政许可39个。 来源：市场资讯 柔显（仙桃）光电半导体材料有限公司，成立于2022年，位于省直辖县级行政区划，是一家以从事计算 机、通信和其他电子设备制造业为主的企业。企业注册资本16000万人民币。通过天眼查大数据分析， 柔显（仙桃）光电半导体材料有限公司共对外投资了1家企业，参与招投标项目11次，专利信息18条， 此外企业还拥有行政许可37个。 湖北鼎龙控股股份有限公司，成立于2000年，位于武汉市，是一家以从事资本市场服务为主的企业。企 业注册资本93828.2591万人民币。通过天眼查大数据分析，湖北鼎龙控股股份有限公司共对外投资 ...