Group 1 - UBS report indicates that Macau's average daily gross gaming revenue (GGR) over the past week was 593 million MOP, representing an 8% year-on-year decline and a 46% drop compared to the first five days of the National Day Golden Week, which is weaker than the market expectation of 700 million MOP [1] - The report highlights a significant slowdown in Macau's GGR since the Mid-Autumn Festival on October 6, despite various events taking place over the past weekend, including the NBA China Games [1] - For the month to date, Macau's average daily GGR is 804 million MOP, down 5% year-on-year, suggesting that the remaining 19 days of the month may see an average daily GGR of 707 million MOP based on market forecasts [1] Group 2 - The industry is currently trading at an EV/EBITDA forecast valuation of 8.5 times for next year, which is 0.8 standard deviations below the two-year average [1] - UBS identifies Wynn Macau, MGM China, and Galaxy Entertainment as the preferred stocks within the industry [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley forecasts a 9% year-on-year growth in Macau's gaming industry EBITDA for Q3, with a 12.5% increase in gaming revenue, but anticipates a decline in overall EBITDA margin both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter [1] Industry Summary - Q3 EBITDA growth is projected at 9% year-on-year [1] - Gaming revenue is expected to rise by 12.5% [1] - Overall EBITDA margin is anticipated to decline compared to both the previous year and the previous quarter [1] - Q4 gaming revenue is expected to grow by over 10% year-on-year [1] - The industry's EV/EBITDA forecast stands at 10 times, below the 15-year average of 12.8 times, which may help Macau gaming stocks outperform the market [1] Company Summary - Morgan Stanley is optimistic about Wynn Macau due to its increasing market share, high yield, and attractive valuation [1]

Group 1 - Hong Kong gaming stocks continue to decline, with Melco International Development down 5%, Sands China down nearly 4%, Galaxy Entertainment down over 3%, MGM China down 2.7%, and Wynn Macau down 1.7% [1] - According to a report by Citi Research, the Macau gaming industry is expected to see a year-on-year EBITDA growth of 10% to $2.063 billion in Q3, driven by a 12.5% year-on-year increase in gross gaming revenue (GGR) [1] - However, adjusted profit margins are expected to be under pressure, with a projected quarterly decline of 0.5 percentage points due to a 33-hour casino shutdown caused by Typhoon Haikui [1] Group 2 - The resilience of gaming revenue post-Golden Week and the reinvestment activities of gaming companies will be key focus areas for the market [1] - The firm has revised its EBITDA forecasts for the industry downwards by 1.4% and 0.5% for this year and next year, respectively, anticipating a 7% year-on-year increase in industry EBITDA to $8.2 billion for this year [1]

Core Viewpoint - UBS reports that Wynn Macau (01128) significantly increased its market share in September, rising approximately 200 basis points month-over-month, contributing to a quarterly increase of 150 basis points in Q3 [1] Company Summaries - Wynn Macau (01128) saw a notable rise in market share, with a month-over-month increase of about 200 basis points and a quarterly increase of 150 basis points [1] - SJM Holdings (00880) experienced a month-over-month market share increase of approximately 50 basis points in September, but a decline of 30 basis points in Q3 [1] - Sands China (01928) and Galaxy Entertainment (00027) reported a month-over-month decline in market share of about 100 basis points and 150 basis points respectively in September, although both saw quarterly increases of approximately 70 basis points and 40 basis points [1] - Melco Resorts (MLCO.US) and MGM China (02282) maintained stable market shares in September, but both experienced quarterly declines of 120 basis points and 100 basis points respectively [1] - Compared to market expectations, the market shares of Galaxy Entertainment and Wynn Macau exceeded expectations, while those of MGM, Sands China, and SJM Holdings fell short [1]

Core Viewpoint - UBS report indicates that Wynn Macau (01128) significantly increased its market share in September, rising approximately 200 basis points month-over-month, contributing to a quarterly increase of 150 basis points in Q3 [1] Group 1: Market Share Changes - Wynn Macau's market share in September rose significantly, leading the market with a 200 basis points increase month-over-month and a 150 basis points increase quarter-over-quarter [1] - The second highest market share increase was observed in SJM Holdings (00880), which saw a month-over-month rise of about 50 basis points in September, but a decline of 30 basis points in Q3 [1] - Sands China (01928) and Galaxy Entertainment (00027) experienced declines in market share in September, with decreases of approximately 100 basis points and 150 basis points, respectively, although both companies saw quarterly increases of about 70 basis points and 40 basis points in Q3 [1] - Melco Resorts (MLCO.US) and MGM China (02282) maintained their market share in September, but both experienced declines of 120 basis points and 100 basis points, respectively, in Q3 [1] Group 2: Market Expectations - Compared to market expectations, the market shares of Galaxy Entertainment and Wynn Macau were higher than anticipated, while those of MGM, Sands China, and SJM Holdings were lower than expected [1]

Core Viewpoint - The gaming stocks continue to decline, extending their downward trend for the month, with significant drops in major companies like Sands China and Wynn Macau [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Sands China (01928) fell by 5.41%, trading at HKD 19.05 [1] - Melco International Development (00200) decreased by 4.05%, trading at HKD 4.98 [1] - Wynn Macau (01128) dropped by 3.65%, trading at HKD 6.34 [1] - MGM China (02282) declined by 3.16%, trading at HKD 14.4 [1] Group 2: Gaming Revenue Insights - Morgan Stanley reported that Macau's gaming gross revenue (GGR) for the first five days of October reached MOP 5.5 billion, with an average daily revenue of MOP 1.1 billion, marking the best performance for the Golden Week in five years [1] - Year-on-year growth was only 3%, lower than both the bank's and market expectations [1] - Visitor numbers from October 1 to 5 remained flat, further impacting GGR growth, with a 25% drop in visitors on October 5 due to a typhoon [1] - The bank projects a year-on-year GGR growth of 11% to 13% for October, estimating a total of MOP 23 billion, which would be the highest in six years [1] Group 3: Market Share Analysis - UBS noted a significant increase in Wynn Macau's market share in September, rising by approximately 200 basis points month-on-month, contributing to a quarterly increase of 150 basis points [1] - The second-highest market share increase was observed in SJM Holdings, which saw a month-on-month rise of about 50 basis points, although it still declined by 30 basis points in the third quarter [1] - Compared to market expectations, the market shares of Galaxy Entertainment and Wynn exceeded expectations, while MGM, Sands China, and SJM fell short [1]

Group 1 - Israel and Hamas have reached a preliminary agreement allowing humanitarian aid into Gaza, releasing 20 hostages, and adjusting the Israeli military withdrawal roadmap. This agreement is seen as progress but not a complete resolution, influenced by the upcoming Nobel Peace Prize announcement [1] - HSBC plans to privatize Hang Seng Bank at a price of 155 HKD, leading to a 30% increase in the bank's stock price. High interest rates have significantly benefited foreign banks, prompting major shareholders to take action [2] - JPMorgan anticipates that Macau's October gaming revenue will increase by approximately 12% year-on-year, reaching a six-year high, yet most casino stocks are valued at less than half of their 2019 levels, indicating a potential expectation gap [3] Group 2 - International flight schedules increased by 11.8% year-on-year during the first seven days of the National Day holiday, while the number of travelers opting for camping has also risen, suggesting a K-shaped trend in tourism consumption, with some upgrading and others downgrading [4] - The semiconductor sector continues to experience explosive growth, supported by strong fundamentals, although the rapid pace of increase raises concerns about potential adjustments in the future [5]

新濠国际发展(00200)和美高梅中国(02282)9月份市占率环比持平，但第三季度分别按季下跌120和100个 基点。与第三季度市场预期相比，银河和永利的市占率高于预期，而美高梅中国、金沙中国和澳博控股 则低于预期。 智通财经APP获悉，瑞银发布研报称，永利澳门(01128)9月份博彩收入市占率环比上升约200个基点，使 其第三季市占率环比增加150个基点，为季内最大升幅。 报告指出，澳博控股(00880)9月份市占率环比上升约50个基点，但第三季度整体仍按季下跌30个基点。 大型博企在9月份似乎因季节性因素而失去市场份额，其中金沙中国(01928)及银河娱乐(00027)的市占率 分别环比下跌约100和150个基点，但第三季度整体仍分别按季上升70和40个基点。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Macau gaming stocks experienced a significant decline in the afternoon trading session, with major companies like Sands China, Galaxy Entertainment, and Melco International all reporting losses due to disappointing gaming revenue figures for September and early October [1]. Group 1: September Gaming Revenue - The Macau Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau reported that the gross gaming revenue (GGR) for September was MOP 18.289 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6% [1]. - Morgan Stanley noted that the total gaming revenue for September was MOP 18.3 billion, which was below both market expectations and their own forecast by 9% [1]. - The decline in revenue was attributed to a 33-hour closure of casinos due to a typhoon, impacting overall operations [1]. Group 2: October Performance - According to JPMorgan, the GGR for the first five days of October reached MOP 5.5 billion, averaging MOP 1.1 billion per day, marking the best performance for the Golden Week in five years [1]. - However, this represented only a 3% year-on-year increase compared to a very high base from the previous year, falling short of both the bank's and market expectations [1]. - Visitor numbers during this period remained flat, with a 25% drop on October 5 due to the typhoon, further hindering GGR growth [1]. - JPMorgan projects that the GGR for October could increase by 11% to 13%, reaching MOP 23 billion, which would be the highest in six years [1].

Core Viewpoint - UBS upgraded the investment rating of Cheung Kong Property from "Neutral" to "Buy," identifying it as the most undervalued stock among the real estate companies covered by the bank [1] Group 1: Potential Catalysts for Value Release - Potential catalysts for value release include acquisitions of distressed commercial real estate (CRE) assets in Hong Kong, continuous improvement in hotel profitability, and opportunities to convert hotels into student accommodations due to a structural increase in non-local student enrollment [1] - Additional catalysts mentioned are the disposal of UK railway assets and higher foreign exchange conversion gains following potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 2: Stance on Hong Kong Banks and Developers - UBS maintains a "Neutral" stance on Hong Kong banks due to increased provisioning expenses related to commercial real estate exposure and risks of net interest margin contraction from a potential rate cut cycle [1] - The bank holds a "Positive" stance on Hong Kong developers, with top picks including Henderson Land, Sun Hung Kai Properties, Link REIT, Wynn Macau, Galaxy Entertainment, and Cathay Pacific, all rated as "Buy" [1] - Conversely, UBS is bearish on MTR Corporation, rating it as "Sell" [1]