Core Insights - Alcoa reported a revenue miss due to shipments in transit at the end of the quarter, but production records were achieved in several facilities, indicating solid operational performance [2] - Earnings met consensus estimates, attributed to tight cost control and execution of strategic initiatives, including a significant gallium investment announcement [3][4] - A long-term power contract was secured in Msina, New York, which is expected to support future operations [4] Production and Market Dynamics - Alcoa's production of alumina and aluminum increased, although trade dynamics introduced some noise in the results [1] - The company is not planning to shut down any refining capacity, as its cost position allows it to operate in a low-price environment despite a significant portion of the Chinese market being underwater [7][8] Gallium Investment - Alcoa announced an investment in a facility in Western Australia to extract approximately 10% of the world's gallium, which is currently dominated by China [5] - This investment strengthens relationships with the US, Japanese, and Australian governments, and production is expected to commence by the end of 2026 [6]

Alcoa's Financial Performance - Alcoa reported a slightly smaller than expected adjusted loss and a miss on revenue [1] - Adjusted EBITDA was down 14% versus last quarter [1] Factors Impacting Alcoa's Performance - Increased tariff costs and unfavorable currency impacts are playing a factor [1] - Tariff costs on higher US imports of aluminum from Canada are expected to increase by approximately $50 million sequentially [2] - Trade policy is also impacting guidance [2] Alcoa's Future Prospects - Alcoa has a critical minerals play with gallium that could be in production as early as 2026 [7] - The critical minerals play could be a higher margin business with some pricing power [7] IBM's Performance and AI - IBM met expectations, but people were hoping for more than a meet [4] - Gen AI has been accelerating, but that's still a small part of IBM's business [5] - AI is an important part of the story for many tech names, and if it is not strong or accelerating, it's a problem for the stock [6]

Alcoa Summary - Alcoa reported a slightly smaller than expected adjusted loss, with a revenue miss and adjusted EBITDA down 14% compared to the previous quarter, influenced by increased tariff costs and unfavorable currency impacts [1] - The company anticipates an increase in tariff costs on higher US imports of aluminum from Canada by approximately $50 million sequentially, which is affecting guidance [2] - Alcoa's shares are currently down about 1.5%, reflecting market reactions to the earnings report and broader economic conditions [3] Industry Insights - The industrial sector, including companies like Alcoa, is facing challenges related to critical minerals and commodity pricing, with a focus on cost control and demand fluctuations [6] - Alcoa is exploring opportunities in critical minerals, particularly gallium, which could lead to higher margins and pricing power, with potential production increases as early as 2026 [7]

Financial Impact - Alcoa's third-quarter costs increased by $69 million due to US import tariffs on Canadian aluminum compared to the previous quarter [1] Trade Policy Effects - The aluminum industry continues to be impacted by the Trump administration's trade measures [1]

Financial Performance - Alcoa reported 3Q25 Earnings Per Share (EPS) of $0.88, but an Adjusted EPS of $(0.02)[18] - The company recorded a $786 million gain on the sale of a 25.1% interest in the Ma'aden joint venture[13] - Alcoa announced the permanent closure of the Kwinana refinery, resulting in $895 million of restructuring and related charges[13] - Adjusted EBITDA excluding special items decreased from $313 million in 2Q25 to $270 million in 3Q25, a decrease of $43 million[18] - The company's YTD return on equity is 14.5%, the highest since 2022[25] Production and Shipments - Alumina production for 3Q25 was 7.2 million metric tons (Mmt), with a full-year outlook of 9.5 – 9.7 Mmt[26] - Alumina shipments for 3Q25 were 9.8 Mmt, with a full-year outlook of 13.1 – 13.3 Mmt[26] - Aluminum production for 3Q25 was 1.7 Mmt, with a full-year outlook of 2.3 – 2.5 Mmt[26] - Aluminum shipments for 3Q25 were 1.9 Mmt, with a full-year outlook of 2.5 – 2.6 Mmt[26] Market Dynamics - LME aluminum prices increased by 7% sequentially in 3Q25[36]

Financial Performance - Alcoa reported a quarterly loss of $0.02 per share, missing the analyst estimate of a $0.01 profit [2] - Total quarterly revenue was $2.99 billion, below the Street estimate of $3.13 billion [2][4] - The company's total third-party revenue decreased by 1% sequentially to $3 billion [4] Production and Shipments - Alumina production increased by 4% sequentially to 2.5 million metric tons [3] - Aluminum production increased by 1% sequentially to 579,000 metric tons [3] - Third-party shipments of alumina were flat sequentially at 2.2 million metric tons, while total shipments in Aluminum decreased by 3% sequentially [3] Segment Performance - In the Alumina segment, third-party revenue decreased by 9% [4] - In the Aluminum segment, third-party revenue increased by 4% [4] Future Outlook - The company plans to focus on safety, stability, and continuous improvement to enhance overall profitability in the fourth quarter [5] - There is an ongoing effort to progress Australia mine approvals [5]

Higher tariff costs on imported aluminum weighed somewhat on third-quarter income, the company said. ...

Core Insights - Alcoa Corporation is expected to report a quarterly loss of 5 cents per share for Q3, a significant decline from a profit of 57 cents per share in the same period last year [1] - The consensus estimate for Alcoa's quarterly revenue is projected at $3.13 billion, an increase from $2.9 billion a year earlier [1] - The company announced the closure of the Kwinana Refinery on September 29 [1] Stock Performance - Alcoa shares fell by 4.4%, closing at $37.23 on Tuesday [2] Analyst Ratings - Morgan Stanley analyst Carlos De Alba maintained an Overweight rating and raised the price target from $38 to $42.5 [4] - Wells Fargo analyst Timna Tanners initiated coverage with an Overweight rating and a price target of $40 [4] - B. Riley Securities analyst Nick Giles maintained a Buy rating and increased the price target from $38 to $40 [4] - UBS analyst Daniel Major maintained a Neutral rating and raised the price target from $31 to $34 [4] - B of A Securities analyst Lawson Winder maintained an Underperform rating and increased the price target from $26 to $27 [4]

Group 1 - Century Aluminum has paused production on one of its two potlines at its aluminum smelter in Grundartangi, Iceland due to an electrical equipment failure [5] - The company's stock dropped by 9.5% in pre-market trading following the announcement [5]

Core Points - Norðurál Grundartangi ehf, a subsidiary of Century Aluminum Company, has temporarily halted production on one of its potlines due to an electrical equipment failure at its aluminum smelter in Iceland [1] - The production at the smelter has been reduced by approximately two-thirds, while the other potline remains fully operational [2] - Century Aluminum expects that losses from this incident will be covered by its property and business interruption insurance policies [3] Company Overview - Century Aluminum is an integrated producer of bauxite, alumina, and primary aluminum products, and is the largest primary aluminum producer in the United States [4]