军贸有望引领军工产能价值重估 20250609 摘要 印尼军方正评估采购中国歼 10 战机，旨在平衡国防预算与性能需求。 此前印尼已购入美制 F16、俄制苏 27/30，并与法国签订阵风战机采购 协议，但阵风在印巴冲突中表现不佳，促使印尼重新考虑军购策略。 在印巴冲突中，巴基斯坦空军使用歼 10 战机击落多架印度战机，包括 法国阵风、俄罗斯苏 30 和米格 29，以及一架印度苍鹭无人机，而中国 制造的歼 10 战机无一受损，实战表现突出，验证了中国四代机的性能。 中国军贸正从出口老式武器转向自主研制高端装备，如红旗-22 等。航 空装备方面，歼 10、歼 20、歼 35 等先进战斗机摆脱知识产权限制， 有望通过出口弥补供给端不足，提升中国在国际军贸市场的地位。 歼 35 具备高性价比、技术自主可控和完全国产化三大优势，与美国 F35 定位相似。F35 已获得大量订单并交付，若歼 35 能达到其一半成 就，将显著提升中航成飞的业绩。 军贸环节中，主机厂可享受显著溢价，改善盈利能力。相比国内销售， 军贸毛利率更高。飞机在过去十年全球武器装备订单中占比最高，主机 厂如飞机雷达制造商将显著受益于军贸溢价。 Q&A 最 ...

Group 1 - The Indonesian government is evaluating the feasibility of purchasing Chinese-made J-10 fighter jets, indicating a renewed demand for advanced Chinese military equipment amid ongoing conflicts [1] - The military trade sector is experiencing significant activity, with the military ETF (512660) seeing over 500 million yuan in net inflows for five consecutive days, and its fund size has grown over 40% this year, currently exceeding 14.3 billion yuan [1] - Analysts from Huafu Securities predict substantial growth in the defense and aerospace sectors driven by multiple catalysts, including the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the "Centenary of the Army" goals, with the military industry index's TTM price-to-earnings ratio at 65.05, indicating high investment value [1] Group 2 - The military ETF (512660) tracks the CSI Military Industry Index (399967), which includes the top ten military-related listed companies, reflecting the overall performance of the Chinese military theme stocks [2] - The CSI Military Industry Index (H30229) aims to provide authoritative investment targets for the military sector, showcasing distinct characteristics of the national defense industry [2]

Group 1 - The military industry sector is experiencing renewed activity, with the Aerospace ETF Tianhong (159241) rising by 3.05% and trading volume exceeding 270 million yuan, indicating active market participation [1] - Key stocks within the Aerospace ETF include Guorui Technology and AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation, both hitting the daily limit, while other stocks like Zhenxin Technology and Sichuan Chuangxin Electronics also saw gains [1] - The Aerospace ETF closely tracks the Guozheng Aerospace Index, which has over 99% weight in the defense and military industry, with 73% of its weight focused on core sectors such as aerospace and aviation equipment [1] Group 2 - According to AVIC Securities, the development of unmanned equipment, anti-unmanned systems, and electronic countermeasures in China is still in its early stages but is expected to drive sustained high growth in the military sector in the medium to long term [2] - Military intelligence is identified as a key area for gaining a competitive edge on the battlefield, involving various operational aspects such as intelligence processing, decision support, and electronic countermeasures [2] - Huafu Securities predicts significant growth in both domestic and foreign demand from 2025 to 2027, emphasizing the importance of military development and recommending three main lines of focus: domestic trade, foreign trade, and self-control [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the defense and military industry [5]. Core Insights - The military trade is expected to lead to a revaluation of military industrial capacity and value [1]. - The report highlights the increasing demand for Chinese military equipment due to recent international conflicts, particularly the India-Pakistan conflict, which has showcased the performance of Chinese aircraft [25][29]. - The report emphasizes the transition of China's military trade into a new era characterized by high-quality self-developed equipment, moving away from reliance on imported Soviet-style equipment [46]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Military Trade Opportunities - Indonesia is considering the procurement of Chinese J-10 fighter jets, driven by performance in the India-Pakistan conflict and cost-effectiveness compared to Western counterparts [14]. - Pakistan is also looking to acquire various advanced Chinese military equipment, including J-35 fighter jets and HQ-19 air defense systems, following successful military engagements [19][25]. Section 2: Next-Generation Aircraft - The U.S. has announced the development of the F-47 next-generation fighter jet, which may create competitive pressure for Chinese manufacturers like AVIC [61]. - The report discusses the potential of the J-35 to become a military trade hit, comparable to the F-35, due to its lower cost and advanced capabilities [41]. Section 3: Military Equipment Production and Safety - The report highlights the urgent need for upgrades in the production safety of energetic materials, citing frequent accidents in the industry [96]. - The complexity and risks associated with the production of explosives and ammunition are noted as significant challenges, particularly in the context of increasing demand during conflicts [100][105]. Section 4: Industry Growth and Investment Opportunities - The military trade sector is expected to benefit from increased demand and pricing, with primary manufacturers likely to see significant profit improvements [52]. - The report suggests focusing on companies with popular or potentially popular military models, such as AVIC subsidiaries and missile manufacturers [55].

来源：@玉渊谭天 责编：刘珺宇 校对： 王蔚 百万用户都在看 习近平同美国总统特朗普通电话 50%关税！刚刚，特朗普宣布！ 全面暂停！特朗普，签了！ 利空突袭！这家A股突发：实控人被刑事立案！ 深夜！中国资产，全线爆发！ 违法和不良信息举报电话：0755-83514034 歼-10可能要有新买家了，最近印度尼西亚军方称，他们正就采购进行可行性评估。 邮箱：bwb@stcn.com ...

Core Viewpoint - The company has approved the continued use of temporarily idle raised funds for cash management, with a maximum amount not exceeding RMB 2.5 billion, ensuring that it does not affect the investment plans of the raised funds [1][4]. Summary by Sections Fundraising Overview - The company raised a total of RMB 2,999,999,973.46 through the issuance of 88,287,227 shares at a price of RMB 33.98 per share, with a net amount of RMB 2,968,265,742.11 after deducting related issuance costs [2]. - The total amount of raised funds approved for investment is up to RMB 3 billion [1]. Investment Project Details - The raised funds are intended for specific projects, including the construction of a maintenance base to enhance comprehensive maintenance capabilities [2]. - As of December 31, 2024, the company has invested a total of RMB 300.25 million from the raised funds, with a remaining balance of RMB 34.65 million in the special account [2]. Cash Management Plan - The company aims to utilize temporarily idle raised funds for cash management to improve efficiency and increase returns for shareholders, without impacting the ongoing projects [3][4]. - The cash management will involve investing in low-risk, highly liquid, and principal-protected products with a maturity of no more than 12 months [4]. Approval Process - The board of directors and the supervisory board have approved the cash management plan, ensuring compliance with relevant regulations and safeguarding shareholder interests [6][8]. - Independent financial advisors have confirmed that the cash management plan adheres to regulatory requirements and does not alter the intended use of the raised funds [7][8].

航空航天ETF天弘（159241）紧密跟踪国证航天指数，按申万一级行业分类，该指数以超99%的国防军 工行业权重形成显著特征，进一步申万二级行业分类，航空装备与航天装备两大核心板块则占据73%权 重，深度聚焦大飞机研制、低空经济、商业航天等新兴领域航空航天装备产业链关键领域。 （本文机构观点来自持牌证券机构，不构成任何投资建议，亦不代表平台观点，请投资人独立判断和决 策。） 6月6日，三大指数集体小幅回调，国证航天航空指数冲高回落。 太平洋证券表示，随着订单恢复正常并陆续释放，军工板块或将进入业绩改善与估值提升的"戴维斯双 击"阶段，建议关注先进战机、低空经济、国产大飞机、卫星互联网、深海科技等领域中竞争格局好、 技术壁垒高的优质龙头公司。 相关ETF方面，航空航天ETF天弘（159241）截至发稿下跌0.10%，成交额超1000万元，换手率超6%。 成分股中，海兰信涨超3%，中航沈飞、振芯科技、华秦科技等股涨幅居前。 长江证券指出，随着 2025年我国规划建设的低轨巨型星座正式进入高密度组网期，后续将在部分区域 逐步具备初期运营服务能力，对应的地面终端建设、卫星服务运营也将同步打开数倍于卫星制造与火箭 发射 ...

据央视新闻报道，当地时间6月5日，据印尼军方消息，印尼政府正就采购中国制造的歼-10战斗机进行可 行性评估。印尼国防部副部长道凡托（Taufanto）表示，此举旨在 提升印尼空军的现代化作战能力 ，同 时 兼顾国防预算的性价比 。 道凡托指出，中国歼-10战斗机在印巴冲突中的表现是印尼考虑该机型的重要因素之一。此外，相较于西 方同类战机，歼-10的价格更具竞争力，且技术配置符合印尼对"高性价比先进装备"的需求。 道凡托透露，目前，印尼正重点审查歼-10与现有国防系统的兼容性、售后维护支持以及具体采购条款。 采购范围可能不限于战斗机，还包括中国制造的舰艇、护卫舰及其他武器装备。 作为东南亚最大经济体，印尼近年来持续推进军事现代化。2022年，印尼与法国签署协议，以81亿美元 订购42架"阵风"战斗机，首批6架预计2026年交付。 违法和不良信息举报电话：0755-83514034 邮箱：bwb@stcn.com 来源：央视新闻 责编：王璐璐 校对： 姚远 百万用户都在看 50%关税！刚刚，特朗普宣布！ 重大转变！突然，爆买！ 突然，暴涨超18%！万亿赛道，集体沸腾！ 利空突袭！这家A股突发：实控人被刑事立案！ ...

Group 1 - The A-share large aircraft concept stocks surged, with Aerospace Machinery hitting the daily limit, and Guihang Shares, Aileda, and Paker New Materials rising over 5% [1]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking it as the first coverage [5]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading player in high-performance carbon fiber, benefiting from dual growth drivers in military and civilian sectors, with a comprehensive industry chain established since its founding in 1992 [1][13]. - Revenue is projected to grow from 1.715 billion yuan in 2019 to 2.450 billion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of 7.38%, while net profit is expected to rise from 522 million yuan to 741 million yuan in the same period, reflecting a CAGR of 7.25% [2][28]. - The company is expected to benefit from the increasing demand for domestic carbon fiber in the aviation sector, driven by geopolitical uncertainties and the need for self-sufficiency in key materials [3][46]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has established a full industry chain from precursor to composite materials, covering both military and civilian applications, and has developed core technologies such as wet and dry spinning [1][18]. - It has a diversified customer base and a strong technological barrier in high-end equipment, which positions it well to expand market share during industry consolidation [2][28]. Market Dynamics - The demand for high-performance domestic carbon fiber is entering a strategic expansion phase, particularly in the aviation sector, as the application ratio of composite materials in domestic aircraft is expected to increase significantly [3][46]. - The company has seen a substantial increase in its T800 grade products, with a 495% year-on-year revenue growth in 2024, indicating strong market traction [3][52]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 898 million yuan, 1.073 billion yuan, and 1.275 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.08 yuan, 1.29 yuan, and 1.53 yuan [4][60]. - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 28.61, 23.97, and 20.16 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [4][60]. Business Segments - The company operates across six major business segments, including carbon fiber, general new materials, energy new materials, composite technology, precision machinery, and optical technology, which collectively support its growth strategy [18][19]. - The carbon fiber segment is expected to contribute significantly to revenue, with a projected increase in demand from both military and civilian applications, particularly in the context of new energy and low-altitude economy developments [28][59].