固定收益 | 固定收益点评 降息预期"先抑后扬" 证券研究报告 海外经济跟踪周报 20250824 海外市场复盘（8.18-8.22） 海外权益，本周先抑后扬。本周前四天标普 500 连跌四天，周五大幅反弹。 前四天下跌的原因，一是投资者对周五的鲍威尔演讲保持谨慎观望态度， 二是大型零售商的财报不佳，包括塔吉特、沃尔玛等，导致股价大跌。但 周五鲍威尔演讲"放鸽"暗示重启降息，美股三大股指强劲反弹。 本周美元先涨后跌，小幅收跌。周一至周四美元累涨 0.8%，周五美元大跌 0.9%。周三公布 7 月美联储议息会议纪要偏鹰派，周四公布美国 8 月标普 Markit 制造业 PMI 初值 53.3，意外创三年多新高。并且周中多位美联储官 员表态偏鹰，因此前四天美元偏向上行；但周五鲍威尔演讲令美元回落。 2Y 和 10Y 美债收益率均大幅下行。本周美债收益率下行，主因周五杰克逊 霍尔会议上鲍威尔态度转鸽。其次，首次申请失业救济人数意外高于预期， 显示劳动力市场降温，续请失业金人数也升至四年高位。第三，特朗普呼 吁美联储理事库克辞职，被视为施压联储降息的信号。 黄金、原油上涨。本周美债收益率大幅下行，推动黄金和白银价格上 ...

Market Overview - Major global stock indices showed mixed performance, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average at 44,785.5, down by 152.81 points or 0.34% [2] - The S&P 500 index decreased by 25.61 points, closing at 6,370.17, a decline of 0.40% [2] - In Asia, the Nikkei 225 fell by 278.38 points to 42,610.17, a drop of 0.65% [2] Trade Agreements - The U.S. and EU have reached an agreement on a trade framework, with the EU expected to purchase $750 billion worth of U.S. energy products by 2028 [3] - The EU will also procure at least $400 billion in U.S. AI chips for data center construction in Europe [3] - European companies are projected to invest an additional $600 billion in strategic sectors in the U.S. by 2028 [3] Economic Data - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending August 16 were reported at 235,000, higher than the expected 225,000 [5] - The U.S. manufacturing PMI for August reached an initial value of 53.3, the highest in 39 months, surpassing the forecast of 49.5 [5] - The services PMI for August was reported at 55.4, exceeding the expected 54.2 [5] Corporate Earnings - Walmart reported Q2 revenue of $177.4 billion, exceeding analyst expectations, but adjusted EPS of $0.68 fell short of the anticipated $0.74, marking the first miss in three years [12] - Kuaishou's Q2 revenue reached 35 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.1%, with adjusted net profit growing by 20.1% to 5.6 billion yuan [13] International Relations - Russia and India plan to jointly explore resources in Russia, with ongoing cooperation in oil supply despite U.S. tariffs on Indian goods [9] - A joint statement from 22 countries, including the UK, France, and Italy, condemned Israel's plan to build over 3,400 settlement homes in the West Bank, calling it unacceptable and a violation of international law [4] Technology Developments - DeepSeek announced the release of DeepSeek-V3.1, featuring enhanced efficiency and capabilities for AI agents, designed for next-generation domestic chips [10] Aviation Industry - Boeing is in discussions to finalize a deal to sell up to 500 aircraft to China, with negotiations ongoing regarding sales terms [11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Miniso (9896.HK) is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the report indicates a positive outlook based on performance metrics and growth expectations. Core Insights - Miniso's H1 2025 performance exceeded expectations with revenue of CNY 9.393 billion, a year-on-year increase of 21.1%, and adjusted net profit of CNY 1.279 billion, up 3% [1] - In Q2 2025, the company achieved revenue of CNY 4.966 billion, a 23.1% increase, surpassing the previous guidance of 18-21% [1] - The adjusted operating profit for Q2 2025 was CNY 0.852 billion, reflecting an 8.5% increase, with an adjusted operating profit margin of 17.2% [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For H1 2025, Miniso reported revenue of CNY 9.393 billion, with an adjusted operating profit of CNY 1.587 billion and an adjusted net profit of CNY 1.279 billion [1] - Q2 2025 revenue reached CNY 4.966 billion, with adjusted net profit at CNY 0.692 billion, marking a 10.6% increase year-on-year [1] - The adjusted net profit margin for Q2 2025 was 13.9%, down 1.6 percentage points year-on-year [1] Store Performance - Significant improvement in same-store sales was noted, with the Miniso brand achieving flat same-store sales, while revenue from the Miniso brand increased by 19.5% to CNY 4.563 billion in Q2 2025 [2] - The number of Miniso stores reached 7,612 by June 30, 2025, with 4,305 in mainland China and 3,307 overseas [2] Cost and Profitability - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was 44.3%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to higher overseas revenue contribution and improved margins from the Top Toy brand [3] - Sales and distribution expenses rose by 40.4% due to investments in direct stores and strategic overseas market expansion [3] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are CNY 21.5 billion, CNY 25.5 billion, and CNY 29.6 billion, representing growth rates of 27%, 19%, and 16% respectively [4] - Expected net profit for 2025 is CNY 2.312 billion, reflecting a 12% decrease, followed by increases of 32% and 23% in subsequent years [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and adjusted net profit for the first half of 2025, despite a decline in net profit due to losses from its investment in Yonghui Superstores [4][7]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 93.93 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 21.1% [4][5]. - Gross profit reached 41.57 billion RMB, reflecting a growth of 22.6% [4]. - Operating profit was 15.46 billion RMB, up by 3.4% [4]. - The pre-tax profit was 11.94 billion RMB, down by 21.9% [4]. - Net profit for the period was 9.06 billion RMB, a decrease of 23.1% [4]. - Adjusted net profit (non-IFRS) was 12.79 billion RMB, showing a growth of 3% [4]. Segment Performance - Revenue from the domestic Miniso brand increased by 11.4%, while overseas revenue grew by 29.4% [5]. - The TOP TOY brand saw a remarkable revenue increase of 73%, indicating strong growth in the trendy toy segment [5][6]. Strategic Investments - The company completed a significant acquisition of a 29.4% stake in Yonghui Superstores for 6.27 billion RMB, becoming its largest shareholder [7]. - The investment in Yonghui Superstores resulted in a loss of 119 million RMB for the company [7]. - The company reported cash and cash equivalents of 7.12 billion RMB as of June 30, 2025, up from 6.23 billion RMB year-on-year [7]. Debt and Financing - The company's loans and borrowings surged from 4.31 million RMB at the end of 2024 to 5.59 billion RMB by June 30, 2025 [8]. - Interest expenses related to the bank loans for acquiring Yonghui Superstores amounted to 38.47 million RMB [8].

Core Insights - Miniso reported a revenue of 9.393 billion RMB for the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 21.1%, while net profit decreased by 23.1% to 906 million RMB [1][2] - The adjusted net profit increased by 3% to 1.278 billion RMB, indicating a positive trend despite the overall profit decline [1][2][8] Financial Performance - Revenue for the first half of 2025 was 9.393 billion RMB, up from 7.758 billion RMB in the same period of 2024, reflecting a growth of 21.1% [2] - Gross profit rose by 22.6% to 4.157 billion RMB, while operating profit increased by 3.4% to 1.546 billion RMB [2] - The pre-tax profit fell by 21.9% to 1.194 billion RMB, and net profit decreased by 23.1% to 906 million RMB [2] - Adjusted EBITDA grew by 11.2% to 2.187 billion RMB [2] Business Segments - The retail brand Miniso in mainland China generated a pre-tax income of 6.558 billion RMB, while overseas markets contributed 3.537 billion RMB [4] - The TOP TOY brand saw a significant revenue increase of 73%, with total store count reaching 293 [4][5] - The growth in TOP TOY is attributed to store expansion and continuous product innovation, positioning it as a potential second growth driver for Miniso [4] Strategic Investments - Miniso completed the acquisition of a 29.4% stake in Yonghui Supermarket for 6.27 billion RMB, becoming its largest shareholder [6] - The investment in Yonghui Supermarket resulted in a loss of 119 million RMB for Miniso [7] - Despite the loss, Miniso's cash and cash equivalents increased to 7.115 billion RMB from 6.227 billion RMB year-on-year [7] - Miniso utilized its equity in Yonghui as collateral for bank loans, amounting to approximately 4.308 billion RMB [7]

供应链改革的溃败进一步暴露战略摇摆。公司激进淘汰上千家供应商后，自有品牌建设形同虚设。投入 不足的研发团队难以支撑商品创新，"品质升级"异化为包装改良游戏，产品竞争力不进反退。烘焙熟食 等自营品类更因品控失序频现食品安全事故，彻底背离品质零售的转型初衷。这种供应链的自我割裂， 让消费者在调改门店中难觅价值认同。 组织生态的荒漠化成为压垮骆驼的最后一根稻草。核心人才持续流失与管理层薪酬倒挂，让内部士气降 至冰点。董事会决策效率低下、战略共识难以形成，企业陷入"高层画饼、中层观望、基层躺平"的瘫痪 状态。这种由内而外的系统性溃败，比业绩亏损更具毁灭性。 中百集团的持续预亏折射出深层的战略迷失。在行业剧变的关键时期，公司虽高举数字化转型旗帜，但 实际落地沦为"空中楼阁"。耗资巨大的智能供应链体系陷入数据孤岛困境，仓储模块与物流系统各自为 政，导致生鲜流转效率大幅滑坡。当竞争对手以数据驱动实现精准补货时，中百的采购决策仍停留在手 工填单阶段，爆款断货与冗余库存并存。这种伪数字化消耗了大量资金，却未带来实质性效率提升。 线上线下融合的溃败加剧模式坍塌。公司多线作战的资源分散，导致电商业务沦为摆设。到家服务体验 滞后、数 ...

Core Insights - Miniso reported a revenue of 9.393 billion RMB for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 21.1% [1] - Operating profit for the same period was 1.546 billion RMB, up 3.4% year-on-year, while net profit decreased to 905.99 million RMB, down 23.1% compared to the previous year [1][2] Financial Performance - For the second quarter of 2025, revenue reached 4.966 billion RMB, a 23.1% increase year-on-year, with operating profit at 836.16 million RMB, an 11.3% rise [2] - The net profit for the second quarter was 489.53 million RMB, down 17.3% from 591.43 million RMB in the same quarter last year [2] Profitability Analysis - The decline in net profit was attributed to a decrease in pre-tax profit, increased financial costs related to stock-linked securities, and losses from the acquisition of Yonghui Superstores [3] - Financial costs for the first half of 2025 amounted to 794 million RMB, significantly higher than the 90 million RMB in the same period last year, primarily due to interest expenses related to stock-linked securities and bank loans for the acquisition [4] Debt and Liabilities - Total liabilities doubled from 7.765 billion RMB at the end of 2024 to 15.749 billion RMB in the first half of 2025, with the debt-to-asset ratio increasing from 42.85% to 59.10% [5] Sales and Distribution Expenses - Sales and distribution expenses rose to 1.16 billion RMB, a 40.4% increase year-on-year, with a 42.8% increase when excluding share-based payment expenses [6] - The increase in expenses is attributed to investments in direct stores, particularly in strategic overseas markets like the United States [6] Market Expansion - The number of Miniso stores increased from 7,504 to 7,612, while TOPTOY stores grew from 276 to 293 as of June 30, 2025 [5] - Revenue from overseas markets increased by 29.4%, accounting for 40.9% of total brand revenue, up from 37.3% in the previous year [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 52.46 [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights a clear inflection point in Q2 performance, driven by the effectiveness of the large store strategy and the positive turnaround in same-store sales, alongside the initiation of the proprietary IP strategy [11][8]. - The company expects a revenue growth rate of over 25% for the full year, with adjusted operating profit projected to reach between RMB 36.5 billion and RMB 38.5 billion [8]. Financial Performance - Q2 revenue increased by 23.1% year-on-year to RMB 4.97 billion, exceeding previous guidance of 18-21% [11]. - The operating profit for Q2 rose by 11.3% year-on-year to RMB 840 million, also surpassing prior guidance [11]. - Gross margin reached a new high of 44.3%, up 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [7]. - Adjusted net profit margin decreased by 1.6 percentage points to 13.9% in Q2 [7]. Revenue and Profit Forecasts - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been raised by 3.7% for each year, now projected at RMB 214.7 billion, RMB 256.6 billion, and RMB 303.6 billion respectively [9]. - Adjusted net profit forecasts remain cautious at RMB 29.9 billion, RMB 37.3 billion, and RMB 45.7 billion for 2025-2027 [9]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is shifting its growth strategy from rapid store expansion to enhancing store efficiency through large store formats and refined operations [11]. - The proprietary IP strategy aims to leverage global channels for IP promotion, enhancing product-channel-operations integration [8]. Market Position and Valuation - The company’s current market capitalization is HKD 48.537 billion, with a closing price of HKD 39.06 as of August 21 [2]. - The report suggests a cautious approach to profitability due to the lower margins from overseas direct operations and TOPTOY revenue contributions [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with expected adjusted net profits of 29.5 billion, 34 billion, and 41.9 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 15, 13, and 11 times [4]. Core Insights - The company reported H1 revenue of 9.39 billion (up 21%) and adjusted net profit of 1.279 billion (up 3%), exceeding market expectations. Q2 revenue reached 4.97 billion (up 23.1%) with an adjusted net profit of 690 million (up 10.6%) [2]. - Domestic and overseas performance showed positive trends, with domestic same-store sales showing a low single-digit increase in Q2, and overseas sales in North America and Europe performing well [2][3]. - The company is focusing on expanding its IP portfolio and enhancing its store network, with a total of 4,305 stores as of Q2, reflecting a net increase of 190 stores [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - H1 revenue was 9.39 billion, with Q2 revenue at 4.97 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 23.1%. Adjusted net profit for H1 was 1.279 billion, with Q2 adjusted net profit at 690 million [2]. - The adjusted net profit margin for Q2 was 13.9%, with a slight decrease compared to the previous quarter [2]. Domestic Operations - Domestic same-store sales showed a low single-digit increase in Q2, indicating a recovery trend. The company has successfully opened IP flagship stores and optimized its operational strategies [2]. - The total number of domestic stores reached 4,305, with significant growth in first, second, and third-tier cities [2]. Overseas Operations - The overseas segment reported a GMV of 7.33 billion for H1, with a year-on-year increase of 14.5%. The total number of overseas stores reached 3,307, with notable growth in Asia and Europe [2]. - North America showed signs of recovery, while Europe performed strongly, contributing to the overall growth in the overseas segment [2][3]. Future Projections - The company expects adjusted net profits to grow significantly over the next few years, with projections of 29.5 billion, 34 billion, and 41.9 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][8]. - The report anticipates continued growth driven by store expansion and the development of proprietary IP, with a clear growth path for the IP retail group [3].

Core Viewpoint - The expectation for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September has changed, with market participants closely monitoring upcoming statements from Fed officials for guidance on future monetary policy [1][10]. Market Performance - U.S. stock markets experienced slight declines, with the S&P 500 index falling for the fifth consecutive day, down by 0.39% [2][3]. - Walmart's stock dropped over 4% despite exceeding quarterly sales expectations, marking the first time since May 2022 that its quarterly profit fell short of forecasts [3]. Federal Reserve Insights - The CME FedWatch tool indicates a 70% probability of a rate cut at the September meeting, reflecting market sentiment [5]. - Minutes from the July Federal Reserve meeting revealed concerns among policymakers regarding the labor market and inflation, with most members believing it is too early for a rate cut [7][12]. - Notably, two Fed governors voted against maintaining the current interest rate, a first since 1993, indicating internal divisions on monetary policy [7]. Individual Stock Movements - Chinese stocks saw significant gains, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rising over 1%. Notable performers included XPeng, which surged over 13%, and NIO, which increased by over 10% [7][9]. - XPeng's co-founder and CEO, He Xiaopeng, purchased 3.1 million shares of the company at an average price of HKD 80.49, increasing his stake to approximately 18.9% [7]. Federal Reserve Officials' Stance - Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester expressed opposition to a rate cut, citing persistent inflation concerns [11]. - Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic indicated that only one rate cut this year would be appropriate, emphasizing the need for a consistent policy direction [13].