证券研究报告 | 首次覆盖报告 gszqdatemark 2026 03 28 年 月 日 概况：湖南零售龙头，轻装上阵涅槃重生。2024 年公司完成重整，引入 4 家产业投资人、11 家财务投资人，共计 25 亿元投资款；重整后资产负债 率由 2023 年 87%降到 2024 年 63%，债务结构优化。截至 25Q3，董事 长王填实控的步步高投资集团与其夫人张海霞为一致行动人合计持有 2.5 亿股、占比 9.12%；公司股权结构较分散，无控股股东和实际控制人，治 理机制革新，聘任轮值总裁，采用总裁办公会议提高决策效率。 超市：调改领军企业，模型跑通规模化复制。公司早在 2009 年即引入过 外资团队领先行业启动超市板块升级，并随之带来经营提效。2024 年 3 月 启动胖东来帮扶调改，目前公司超市门店 21 家，已全部完成调改。公司 聚焦 SKU、探索自有品牌、裸采供应链变革，重塑商品结构；同时优化购 物环境，提升员工幸福感，提升员工薪资福利，重构人力资源，用员工幸 福驱动客户满意提升。超市板块再次成为公司业绩增长的主引擎，调改后 单店客流、客单价双增。2026 年 1-2 月，调改店销售额同比增长 24 ...

CONTENTS 目录 服务消费迎政策利好，传统消费格局改善 • 服务消费：政策催化，景气向上 • 部分传统消费格局改善 • 新消费：延续高景气度 • 消费科技：商业化落地加速 • 其他传统业态：持续变革，寻找景气拐点 3 • 投资建议及推荐标的：1）继续推荐旅游出行：酒店（推荐：华住集团-S，首旅酒店，锦江酒店，关注亚朵），景区（推荐：九华旅游、三特索道、黄山旅游、 三峡旅游、峨眉山）。2）竞争格局显著改善，推荐标的：菜百股份、行动教育、珠免集团、中国中免、华图山鼎。3）新消费延续高景气：老铺黄金、名创优 品。4）消费科技：绿联科技、康耐特光学等。5）传统零售持续调改：锅圈、江苏国泰、苏美达、步步高、家家悦。其他个股机会推荐：海底捞、古茗。 • 政策持续催化，出行链和服务消费景气向上。1）财政补贴聚焦托底式的普惠服务：育儿/养老/医疗/教育，将释放可支配收入，并降低预防性储蓄。2）需求端 主要政策思路是：提供创新消费场景，释放更多闲暇时间。中小学生春秋假的全面推广，以及带薪错峰休假的逐步落地，出行链景气度边际向上。其中：景区： 景气向上，增量项目，资产化加速。酒店：景气向上，供给稳定，个股改善。3）其他服务 ...

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.03.22 服务消费新政频出，看好出行链机会 [Table_Industry] 社会服务业 商社行业周报（2026.3.16-2026.3.22） | | | [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘越男(分析师) | 021-38677706 | liuyuenan@gtht.com | S0880516030003 | | 范佳博(研究助理) | 021-38053328 | fanjiabo@gtht.com | S0880125120019 | 本报告导读： 服务消费新政频发，看好出行链机会 投资要点： 行 业 跟 踪 报 告 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 [Table_Summary] 投资观点：1）继续看好旅游出行：酒店（推荐华住集团-S、首旅酒 店、锦江酒店，相关标的亚朵），景区（推荐九华旅游、三特索道、 黄山旅游、三峡旅游、峨眉山 A 等）。2）竞争格局显著改善：菜百 股份、行动教 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of policy support for new consumption and modern service industries, particularly highlighting the positive outlook for travel and tourism [3][6] - It identifies significant investment opportunities in the tourism sector, recommending specific companies such as Huazhu Group, ShouLai Hotel, and JinJiang Hotels, as well as scenic spots like Jiuhua Tourism and Huangshan Tourism [6][7] - The competitive landscape is noted to have improved significantly, with companies like Caibai Co., Action Education, and China Duty Free Group showing strong performance [6][7] - Recent earnings reports are expected to exceed market expectations, particularly for companies like Laopu Gold and Pop Mart [6] - Individual stock opportunities include Jiangsu Guotai, SuMeida, and HaiDiLao, among others [6][7] Industry Updates - The report highlights that during the Spring Festival travel period from February 2 to March 13, 2026, air travel reached nearly 95 million passengers, marking a historical high with a daily average of 2.36 million, a year-on-year increase of 4.7% [6] - The China Household Appliances and Consumer Electronics Expo showcased innovative products, such as Anker Innovations' first consumer-grade 3D texture UV printer [6] - Notable sales growth was reported by companies like Bubu Gao, with a 24% year-on-year increase in sales for its "Fat Transformation" stores [6] Company Performance Predictions - The report provides profit forecasts for key companies in the social service retail sector, indicating strong growth potential for firms like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang [7][9] - Specific financial metrics include projected revenues and net profits for various companies, with significant year-on-year growth anticipated for Laopu Gold and others [7][9]

Stock Performance - As of February 26, 2026, the stock price of Bubugao (002251.SZ) decreased by 2.81%, closing at 4.84 yuan, which is below its 60-day moving average of 5.338 yuan, marking a new low for the 60-day period [1] - The company's stock performance was weaker than the market and its sector, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly down by 0.01% and the Shenzhen Component Index up by 0.19%. The retail trade sector and general retail sector saw declines of 1.22% and 1.51%, respectively [1] - On that day, there was a net outflow of 83.2979 million yuan in main funds, which may exert pressure on the stock price [1] Company Fundamentals - According to the earnings forecast released on January 30, 2026, the company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 to be between 100 million yuan and 150 million yuan, representing a year-on-year decline of 87.62% to 91.75% [2] - The profit decline is primarily due to the recognition of a large restructuring gain of 2.879 billion yuan in 2024, with a significant reduction in such non-recurring gains in 2025, leading to a return to normal operating profit levels [2] - Although the net profit excluding non-recurring gains shows a significant reduction in losses, the market may focus more on the overall contraction in net profit [2] Technical Indicators - The company's MACD indicator shows a negative divergence, and the KDJ indicator is at a low level, indicating a weak short-term trend [3] - The 20-day moving average of 5.099 yuan serves as a recent resistance level [3]

Group 1 - The company, Bubu Gao, announced on its interactive platform that it has disclosed the "2025 Annual Performance Forecast" on January 30, 2026 [2]

Group 1 - The article highlights the significance of Huangmi Oil Cake as a representative of Shaanxi cuisine, particularly known in Fuxian and Huangling, with its production technique recognized as a municipal intangible cultural heritage [3] - Huangmi Oil Cake is made from a unique variety of yellow millet native to Shaanxi, involving complex processes such as shelling, soaking, grinding, fermenting, steaming, and frying, which contribute to its traditional craftsmanship and superior ingredient selection [3] - In Yan'an, Huangmi Oil Cake embodies the traditional festive spirit, serving as a symbolic food prepared by families for the New Year celebrations [3]

Group 1 - The article highlights the tradition of climbing to pray for blessings at the Badaochu Park on the first day of the Lunar New Year, with many citizens participating in this activity to start the new year positively [1][5]. - A significant number of families, including three generations, visit the park annually, indicating a strong cultural practice among the local population [5]. - The park is known for its scenic beauty and historical significance, making it a popular destination for New Year celebrations [5]. Group 2 - Citizens express their wishes by hanging red silk ribbons, with each ribbon representing personal stories and hopes for the new year [10][14]. - The act of writing wishes by hand is emphasized as a way to add a personal touch and warmth to the blessings, contrasting with the convenience of digital messages [14]. - Specific wishes include health for children and enduring love for couples, showcasing the diverse hopes of the community [10][14].

Core Insights - The article highlights the increasing demand for traditional rice cakes in Shanghai as the Lunar New Year approaches, reflecting local culinary preferences and cultural significance [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Demand - There is a notable surge in orders for traditional rice cakes, particularly in the lead-up to the Lunar New Year, with producers experiencing a significant increase in workload [1][2] - The popularity of rice cakes is attributed to their cultural significance, as they symbolize good fortune and prosperity during the festive season [1][3] Group 2: Production and Innovation - Producers like Shen Huijin have adapted their operations to meet rising demand, often working late into the night to prepare ingredients and fulfill orders [1][2] - Newer companies, such as Afang Cake Group, are innovating by offering smaller, more intricate cake designs with unique flavors, catering to modern consumer preferences [4][5] Group 3: Consumer Preferences - Corporate clients are increasingly seeking high-quality, aesthetically pleasing food items for events, moving away from generic options to more unique and thoughtful offerings [4][5] - The emphasis on presentation and emotional value in food products is becoming a key factor in consumer purchasing decisions, especially for corporate events [5] Group 4: Industry Dynamics - The food production industry in Shanghai is experiencing a busy season, with companies ramping up operations to meet the demands of festive periods like the Lunar New Year [6] - The competitive landscape is shifting as businesses strive to differentiate their products through innovative designs and flavors, reflecting changing consumer expectations [4][5]

Group 1 - The city of Shanghai is experiencing a warm-up before the Lunar New Year, with temperatures reaching 21℃ to 22℃ during the day [2] - A cold front is expected to arrive tonight, bringing light to moderate rain, with temperatures dropping to 5℃ to 8℃ on New Year's Eve [2] - The weather will transition from rain to clear skies from the first to the sixth day of the new year, with temperatures gradually rising again [2]