2025 年 A 股业绩前瞻：结构分化加剧，资源与制造板块领跑 证券研究报告/策略专题报告 2026 年 02 月 01 日 分析师：徐驰 执业证书编号：S0740519080003 Email：xuchi@zts.com.cn 分析师：张文宇 执业证书编号：S0740520120003 Email：zhangwy01@zts.com.cn 一、业绩预告全景：整体偏弱，分化显著 截至 2026 年 1 月 31 日共有 2963 家上市公司披露业绩预警，整体喜忧参半，但以"报 忧"为主基调。"报喜"类（预增、续盈、略增、扭亏）公司共 1095 家，占比约 37%； "报忧"类（预减、略减、续亏、首亏）公司则有 1867 家，占比约 63%。整体来看， 2025 年上市公司盈利整体呈现企稳回升趋势，但整体仍处于弱通道。另外，不少企业 盈利同比有所改善，但分化明显，仍有大批公司未能实现盈利增长。 相关报告 行业方面，2025 年出现集中"报喜"的行业有非银金融，有色金属，美容护理，汽车 与公用事业。集中"报忧"的行业有煤炭，房地产，轻工制造，食品饮料和建筑装饰。 非银金融板块集体预增，业绩预警表现远好于其他行业， ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown significant improvement in trading sentiment, with transaction volumes reaching historical highs, indicating a strong upward trend since mid-December 2025 [1][9]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index achieved a 17-day consecutive rise, reaching its highest level in nearly a decade, with average daily transaction volumes exceeding 30 trillion yuan since the beginning of 2026 [1]. - The market's active trading environment is characterized by a high turnover rate of 5.7%, the most active since 2015, with a record transaction amount of 3.99 trillion yuan on January 14, 2026 [1][12]. Group 2: Investor Behavior - Retail investors have been increasingly entering the market, with an average of 2.43 million new accounts opened monthly in Q4 2025, driven by a "scarcity of assets" and the relative attractiveness of the stock market [2][18]. - High-risk preference funds, including margin financing and private equity, have seen significant increases in their positions, with margin financing balances surpassing 2.7 trillion yuan, marking a historical high [1][16]. Group 3: Fund Flows - Stock ETFs have experienced a shift in growth momentum, with significant inflows into industry-themed ETFs, particularly in sectors like non-ferrous metals and aerospace, reflecting changing investor preferences [3][22]. - Northbound capital has shown a gradual return to the A-share market, with a net inflow of 117 billion yuan in Q4 2025, as global monetary conditions favor Chinese assets [4][24]. Group 4: Institutional Investment - Insurance funds have accelerated their entry into the market, with stock and securities investments reaching 5.6 trillion yuan, the highest since 2013, indicating a growing commitment to equity investments [5][26]. - Active funds have regained excess returns, with the mixed equity fund index yielding 11.6%, outperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 7 percentage points, leading to a positive trend in fund issuance and redemption [5][28]. Group 5: Sector Focus - Institutional investors have increased their focus on sectors such as non-ferrous metals and telecommunications, while reducing exposure to electronics and biopharmaceuticals, reflecting a strategic shift in portfolio allocations [8][34]. - The market is expected to maintain a relatively active trading sentiment, supported by low interest rates and a favorable environment for equity investments, with potential for further inflows from both domestic and foreign investors [9][39].

在净流入比方面，南方东西精选（03441）、中国中药（00570）、百奥赛图-B（02315）以51.51%、 44.99%、44.77%位列市场前三。 在净流出比方面，广深铁路股份（00525）、华新建材（06655）、昆仑能源（00135） 以-57.47%、-54.93%、-53.60%位列市场前三。 前10大资金净流入榜 | 股票名称 | 净流入(元)↓ | 净流入比 | 收盘价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 腾讯控股(00700) | 12.07 亿 | 7.63% | 621.000（+2.31%） | | 泡泡玛特(09992) | 7.42 亿 | 14.21% | 231.400（+7.03%） | | 中国人寿(02628) | 5.66 亿 | 16.39% | 35.180（+3.17%） | | 长飞光纤光缆(06869) | 3.69 亿 | 10.82% | 75.200（+15.43%） | | 金山云(03896) | 3.45 亿 | 18.68% | 7.810（+3.44%） | | 蜜雪集团(02097) | 3.31 亿 | 25.73 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates a significant improvement in investor sentiment, with nearly 80% of investors optimistic about the 2026 market, driven by a strong performance in 2025 and expectations for continued growth in technology sectors, particularly AI and chips [1][7][22]. Group 1: Market Performance and Investor Sentiment - In 2025, major stock indices in A-shares showed strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising nearly 20%, marking its best annual performance in six years [7][30]. - Approximately 57% of surveyed investors reported profits in 2025, a notable increase from previous years, with a 15 percentage point rise from 2024 [8][32]. - The average asset allocation in securities accounts increased to 41.68% by the end of 2025, reflecting a shift of funds from savings to equity investments [10][34]. Group 2: Sector Performance - The technology sector, particularly AI and chips, was identified as the primary source of investment returns, with 26% of investors citing it as their top-performing sector [3][42]. - Other notable sectors included the new energy industry at 24% and cyclical stocks at 18%, while traditional consumer sectors lagged behind [3][42]. Group 3: Future Expectations - Looking ahead to 2026, 78% of investors expect the market to rise, with 47% anticipating gains of over 5% [24][49]. - Investors are particularly optimistic about the technology sector, with 39% believing that tech stocks will continue to outperform [24][49]. - A significant 81% of investors are optimistic about the spring market in 2026, with a focus on technology growth [51]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - The report highlights a trend of increasing allocations to equity assets, with 42% of investors planning to increase their investments in stocks [48][35]. - There is a notable interest in gold investments, with 71% of investors having allocated funds to gold, reflecting its status as a safe haven amid market volatility [37][13]. - The preference for indirect investment methods, such as ETFs, is growing, particularly in the Hong Kong stock market, where 58% of investors chose this route [40][39]. Group 5: Economic Factors - The report notes that the decline in risk-free interest rates has prompted a shift in investment strategies, with more investors considering equities over traditional savings [11][36]. - Expectations for liquidity in the market remain high, with over 60% of investors anticipating a continued influx of capital into equities [48][22].

Core Viewpoint - The collaboration between Botai Car Union and Ping An Property & Casualty Insurance aims to integrate technology, finance, automotive, and services to transform the insurance landscape in the smart mobility era [1] Group 1: Strategic Cooperation Details - The companies will create a new service paradigm by integrating AI and data while ensuring data security, leveraging their technological and insurance expertise to enhance user value and satisfaction [2] - They will build a leading safety ecosystem through the "car-insurance linkage" model, combining driving behavior risk perception with Ping An's customer operation system to inject technological momentum into the construction of a strong transportation nation [2] - The partnership will explore new dimensions in smart mobility services by integrating resources, providing one-stop travel solutions, and innovating embedded insurance financial products to foster a new ecosystem of technology empowerment and cross-industry collaboration [2]

Investment Focus - The report emphasizes a balanced allocation between technology and value sectors, focusing on market structure rather than short-term index fluctuations [1][11] - Recent market movements show a stronger rebound in value sectors compared to high-tech, with increased expectations for policies supporting the real estate sector [1][12] - Rising commodity prices and stabilization in certain product prices are aiding valuation recovery in undervalued sectors like real estate and baijiu [1][12] Market Outlook - The report anticipates stabilization and upward movement in Chinese equities (A-shares and Hong Kong stocks) leading into the Lunar New Year, driven by domestic fundamentals and liquidity conditions [2][13] - A series of political and economic catalysts, including local and national meetings and the rollout of the 15th Five-Year Plan, are expected to enhance market sentiment [2][13] Investment Strategy - The report suggests positioning for the Lunar New Year "red packet" rally by focusing on industries benefiting from holiday effects and macroeconomic catalysts [2][14] - Key areas of focus include AI applications, high-quality tech manufacturing, and future industries such as defense and domestic chip production [2][14] Sector Analysis - Non-bank financials, particularly brokers and insurers, are expected to recover from previous outflows due to their strong fundamentals [3][19] - The holiday consumption chain, including sectors like gaming, food and beverage, and travel, is highlighted as a potential growth area [3][19] - Hong Kong dividend assets with earnings leverage, such as real estate and chemicals, are also noted for their potential upside following policy support [3][19] Liquidity Data - A-share ETF flows show a divergence, with broad-based ETFs experiencing significant outflows while sector-specific ETFs saw inflows, particularly in metals and chemicals [4][16] - In Hong Kong, short-selling activity has returned to historical averages, with notable inflows into energy and property sectors [5][17]

Core Viewpoint - The health insurance sector in China is experiencing significant growth and transformation, driven by policy support and market demand, with a focus on high-quality development and integration into the broader health ecosystem [1][2][3]. Expansion of Coverage - The commercial health insurance market has seen an average annual growth rate of over 20% in the past decade, with more than 11,000 medical insurance products available, providing robust support for public health [2]. - By 2025, it is estimated that commercial health insurance will incur approximately 14.7 billion yuan in total claims for innovative drugs and medical devices, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 70% over four consecutive years [2]. Regulatory Guidance - The "Guiding Opinions" issued by the National Financial Regulatory Administration aims to optimize existing policies and clarify future directions for health insurance, emphasizing specialized and professional operations [3]. - The insurance industry is encouraged to enhance collaboration with the health industry and support flexible payment methods for innovative medical technologies [3]. Claims Efficiency Improvement - In 2025, ZhongAn Insurance reported a total claim payout of 17.9 billion yuan, processing approximately 2.9 million claims daily, with a focus on leveraging technology to enhance claims service efficiency [4]. - AI integration in the claims process has enabled over 90% of health insurance users to submit claims with minimal effort, significantly improving transparency and user trust [4]. Infrastructure Development - The establishment of robust infrastructure is crucial for the sustainable operation of the health insurance industry, with a focus on data-driven services such as product verification, risk management, and claims support [5]. - The China Banking and Insurance Information Technology Management Company is enhancing product registration and monitoring industry risks through intelligent systems [5]. Asset Management and Investment - As of 2025, insurance asset management products directed towards the medical sector have exceeded 150 billion yuan, with investments in various healthcare-related fields [8]. - Insurance funds are playing a vital role in supporting the upgrade of the healthcare and elderly care industries, contributing to the development of new productive forces [7][8]. Service Space Expansion - The health insurance sector is evolving to include preventive care and health management, with companies like PICC Health establishing health management subsidiaries to integrate insurance with health services [9][10]. - The collaboration between insurance and healthcare providers is yielding positive results, enhancing patient satisfaction and reducing claims costs through coordinated care [9][10]. Industry Collaboration - The China Insurance Industry Association is actively promoting cross-industry collaboration and developing standardized terms for commercial health insurance, aiming for a cooperative development model with the healthcare sector [10].

□本报记者王雪青 2026开年以来，A股在政策暖风与全球流动性转向预期下走出"开门红"，但结构性分化依旧显著。站在 多个经济体周期共振、新质生产力加速落地的关键节点，如何穿越短期波动、把握长期价值？ 宏利基金权益部执行总经理、基金经理李坤元给出了她的答案——聚焦"好行业、好阶段、好公司、好 价格"，在全市场均衡布局中捕捉科技成长与周期反转的双重机遇。拥有20年投研经验、14年基金管理 履历的她，正以一套融合宏观研判、中观景气与微观精选的系统性框架，掌舵新发产品宏利优势企业混 合型证券投资基金，布局高质量发展时代的优质资产。 遵循"四好"选股原则 李坤元的投资框架具有鲜明的自上而下特征。"宏观先行"是她的鲜明特色。"这些年来，我积极跟踪经 济数据与宏观政策，尝试根据宏观环境的变化做仓位上的择时和确定投资风格。"李坤元表示，"我每个 季度都会对宏观情况进行审视判断，如果出现大的风险或异常因素，会增加跟踪频率。宏观有风险时， 首先要降低仓位，第二要降低持仓品种的弹性，进行防御。" 李坤元认为，2026年的宏观环境将迎来积极拐点。一方面，美联储降息确定性高，全球流动性趋于宽 松；另一方面，"十五五"规划开局之年政策协 ...

□本报记者 王雪青 2026开年以来，A股在政策暖风与全球流动性转向预期下走出"开门红"，但结构性分化依旧显著。站在 多个经济体周期共振、新质生产力加速落地的关键节点，如何穿越短期波动、把握长期价值？ 宏利基金权益部执行总经理、基金经理李坤元给出了她的答案——聚焦"好行业、好阶段、好公司、好 价格"，在全市场均衡布局中捕捉科技成长与周期反转的双重机遇。拥有20年投研经验、14年基金管理 履历的她，正以一套融合宏观研判、中观景气与微观精选的系统性框架，掌舵新发产品宏利优势企业混 合型证券投资基金，布局高质量发展时代的优质资产。 遵循"四好"选股原则 李坤元的投资框架具有鲜明的自上而下特征。"宏观先行"是她的鲜明特色。"这些年来，我积极跟踪经 济数据与宏观政策，尝试根据宏观环境的变化做仓位上的择时和确定投资风格。"李坤元表示，"我每个 季度都会对宏观情况进行审视判断，如果出现大的风险或异常因素，会增加跟踪频率。宏观有风险时， 首先要降低仓位，第二要降低持仓品种的弹性，进行防御。" 她始终相信："时代造英雄，每个时代都有自己的英雄。"当前，正处于科技起舞的时代，人工智能 （AI）、先进制造、新型消费与医药等是中长期 ...

● 本报记者 连润 国家统计局1月31日发布的数据显示，1月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.3%，比上月下降0.8个 百分点，其中，生产指数为50.6%，高于临界点，制造业生产保持扩张。非制造业商务活动指数为 49.4%，从行业看，货币金融服务、资本市场服务、保险等行业商务活动指数均高于65.0%，金融市场 活跃度较高。 出厂价格指数升至临界点以上 "1月份，部分制造业行业进入传统淡季，加之市场有效需求仍显不足，制造业PMI为49.3%，景气水平 较上月下降。"国家统计局服务业调查中心首席统计师霍丽慧表示。 从分项指数看，价格指数双双回升。霍丽慧分析，1月份，受近期部分大宗商品价格上涨等因素影响， 主要原材料购进价格指数和出厂价格指数分别为56.1%和50.6%，比上月上升3.0个和1.7个百分点，其中 出厂价格指数近20个月来首次升至临界点以上，制造业市场价格总体水平改善。 从非制造业看，霍丽慧表示，1月份，受建筑业等行业景气度下降等因素影响，非制造业商务活动指数 为49.4%，比上月下降0.8个百分点，非制造业总体景气水平有所回落。（下转A02版） 高技术制造业持续领跑。1月份，高技术制造业PMI ...