2025 年 07 月 31 日 2025 年 7 月中央政治局会议点评 宏观政策的新判断、新动向 证券分析师 钟正生 投资咨询资格编号 S1060520090001 ZHONGZHENGSHENG93 4@pingan.com.cn 张璐 投资咨询资格编号 S1060522100001 ZHANGLU150@pingan.com.cn 事项： 中共中央政治局 7 月 30 日召开会议，决定召开二十届四中全会，分析研究当 前经济形势和经济工作，中共中央总书记习近平主持会议。 宏 观 报 告 一、 经济形势判断。会议肯定了上半年经济发展成绩，指出"高质量发展取得新 成效"、"主要经济指标表现良好"。相比 4 月会议，删除了"外部冲击影响加 大"。其背景是，近期中美经贸谈判释放积极信号，中国出口呈现韧 性。本 次会议提出"稳住外贸外资基本盘"、"优化出口退税政策"，体现出 更强的 战略定力。 二、 宏观政策定调。1、会议指出"宏观政策要持续发力、适时加力"和"保持 政策连续性稳定性，增强灵活性预见性"，相比于 4 月会议的"加紧实施更加 积极有为的宏观政策"和"根据形势变化及时推出增量储备政策， 加强超常 规逆周 ...

中共中央政治局7月30日召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势，部署下半年经济工作。下半年经济工作总 基调是什么？宏观政策如何持续发力、适时加力？如何进一步有效释放内需潜力？如何坚定不移深化改 革？如何持续防范化解重点领域风险？上述问题，会议都给出了答案。在此背景下，股市、债市会如何 运行？投资者又该如何交易？ ...

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector is focusing on enhancing service quality to the real economy, risk prevention, cost reduction, and digital transformation as key themes for the second half of 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Support for the Real Economy - Financial institutions' RMB loan balance reached 268.56 trillion yuan by the end of June, with a year-on-year growth of 7.1% [2]. - In the first half of 2025, new RMB loans amounted to 12.92 trillion yuan, indicating strong credit support for the real economy [2]. - The growth in loans is primarily driven by corporate loans, with a focus on manufacturing and infrastructure sectors [2]. Group 2: Risk Management - Risk prevention remains a top priority for banks, with a focus on enhancing risk management systems and compliance [4]. - Banks are adopting a systematic approach to improve asset quality and compliance, moving away from traditional growth metrics [4][5]. - Emphasis is placed on strengthening internal controls and consumer protection to mitigate systemic risks [4]. Group 3: Cost Reduction and Efficiency Improvement - The banking sector is entering a new cycle characterized by slower revenue growth and narrowing interest margins, making cost reduction and efficiency improvement critical [5][6]. - Banks are encouraged to optimize their business structures and enhance sustainable development capabilities through cost management [6]. - Regulatory bodies are addressing "involution" in the banking sector, focusing on price competition and encouraging self-regulation [7][8]. Group 4: Digital Transformation - The central government has prioritized digital finance, aiming to establish a financial system that aligns with digital economic development by 2027 [9][10]. - Banks are integrating digital transformation into their core strategies, with many reporting progress in operational efficiency and service quality [9][10]. - Initiatives include enhancing customer experience through technology and developing specialized financial products [10][11].

Core Insights - The rapid development of the economy in China has led to an increase in financial products and services, but many merchants and consumers lack financial knowledge, making them vulnerable to financial fraud and illegal fundraising [1] - Minsheng Bank's Jinan Tianqiao Branch has initiated a financial knowledge promotion campaign targeting small and micro businesses in commercial circles, focusing on financing, settlement, and risk management [1] Group 1 - The campaign includes on-site explanations of small business loan policies, digital payment tools, and account security management [1] - Real case analyses of common financial fraud methods, such as fake bank messages and fraudulent loan apps, are provided to help merchants stay vigilant [1] - Promotional materials, warning education videos, and hands-on guidance on using mobile banking security features are distributed, especially targeting middle-aged and elderly merchants [1] Group 2 - An engaging quiz segment is included in the event, allowing participants to win small gifts by answering questions related to anti-fraud techniques, investment knowledge, and payment security [1] - The atmosphere at the event is lively, with many merchants and consumers actively participating [1] - Feedback is collected during the event to optimize future promotional activities and content delivery [1] Group 3 - Financial knowledge promotion is recognized as a long-term effort to enhance the public's risk prevention capabilities while enjoying convenient financial services [2] - Minsheng Bank's Jinan Tianqiao Branch plans to continue innovating promotional methods to extend financial knowledge into communities, schools, and enterprises [2] - The goal is to contribute to the establishment of a harmonious financial environment [2]

Group 1 - Gold prices are experiencing high volatility, with London gold reaching a monthly high of $3438.92 per ounce before retreating to $3422.92, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.24% [1][2] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange has issued a notice to its members to enhance risk awareness and prepare for potential market instability, urging investors to manage their positions wisely [2] - Research from Chuangyuan Futures indicates that the third quarter is typically a low season for gold consumption, contributing to the current high volatility in gold prices [4] Group 2 - The long-term outlook for gold remains bullish due to factors such as unsustainable U.S. debt and fiscal policies, alongside global geopolitical tensions [4] - Market analysts suggest that if U.S.-EU tariff negotiations fail or the probability of a U.S. economic recession rises to 45%, gold prices could surpass previous highs, especially with central banks purchasing over 1000 tons of gold annually [4] - Investment strategies recommend cautious allocation in gold, considering the current policy-sensitive period and potential market fluctuations, while emphasizing the importance of diversifying asset portfolios [4]

Group 1 - The external environment has become increasingly complex and severe, with weakening global growth and rising trade protectionism, while domestic structural adjustments continue to deepen [1] - The national economy has shown resilience, with GDP growth of 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year, an increase of 0.3 percentage points compared to the same period last year and the full year [1] - Economic growth still faces certain pressures, with the need to further consolidate the foundation for improvement amid increasing instability and uncertainty in the international situation [1] Group 2 - Fiscal policy should be proactive, with increased spending in key areas such as technology innovation and support for export-to-domestic sales, as well as an increase in special bond issuance to promote infrastructure investment [2] - Monetary policy should include timely reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates to lower financing costs for the real economy and stimulate endogenous financing demand [2] - Strengthening policy coordination is essential to mitigate economic fluctuations and counter downward pressure, while also deepening reforms to enhance the flexibility of macro-control tools [2] Group 3 - There is a need to strengthen risk prevention measures as the number of uncertainties and instabilities increases, with a focus on improving the capacity for comprehensive and coordinated regulation [3] - The emphasis is on practical actions to consolidate the positive economic momentum through reforms and macro-control, transforming pressure into a driving force for optimizing economic structure and high-quality development [3] - Ensuring stability in the Chinese economy amid global changes requires a commitment to high-quality development in response to external uncertainties [3]

Core Viewpoint - The event on July 8, 2023, marked the 13th National Insurance Publicity Day, focusing on the theme "Love and Responsibility, Insurance Makes Life Better" to enhance public awareness of insurance and financial literacy [1] Group 1: Event Overview - The event was organized by the China Insurance Industry Association and aimed to promote insurance services and financial knowledge in rural areas, specifically in Jiuji Village, Zibo City [1][3] - Activities included setting up service consultation booths, hanging promotional banners, and distributing informative materials to educate villagers about insurance [3] Group 2: Financial Knowledge Promotion - The event emphasized the core values of insurance, including risk protection, economic compensation, and life stability, particularly focusing on health and pension insurance products relevant to villagers [3][5] - Financial literacy was promoted using simple language and relatable examples, covering basic financial concepts, savings, and rational investment ideas to help villagers manage their finances effectively [5] Group 3: Risk Prevention and Awareness - A special segment on fraud prevention was included, addressing common scams in rural areas, especially targeting the elderly, and providing tips on recognizing and avoiding such scams [5] - The event highlighted the dangers of the "agent refund" black market, warning villagers about potential loss of coverage and financial harm, and encouraged them to consult official channels for insurance matters [5][7] Group 4: Community Impact and Future Plans - The initiative fostered a better understanding of insurance functions and financial risk awareness among villagers, contributing to a supportive environment for financial literacy [7] - The company plans to continue its efforts in grassroots engagement, aiming to enhance public financial literacy and support local economic development and rural revitalization [7]

Group 1: Core Insights - The article highlights the risks and challenges associated with the contribution of intangible assets in the process of overseas listing for companies [2] - It emphasizes the need for companies to be aware of the potential legal and tax implications arising from the overvaluation of intangible assets [4][8] Group 2: Assessment Risks - There is a risk of inflated valuations of intangible assets, which can lead to legal liabilities for shareholders if the actual value is lower than the assessed value [5] - Assessment institutions may also face legal consequences if their evaluations are found to be inaccurate, as they are responsible for the accuracy of their reports [6] Group 3: Tax Risks - Personal income tax implications arise when shareholders contribute intangible assets, with a 20% tax on capital gains from the transfer of such assets [8] - Corporate income tax benefits can be affected by the overvaluation of intangible assets, leading to potential tax liabilities and penalties if discrepancies are identified by tax authorities [9] - Value-added tax (VAT) treatment varies based on the classification of intangible assets, with potential exemptions for technology-related assets if conditions are met [10] Group 4: Recommendations - Companies are advised to select reputable assessment institutions and establish internal review mechanisms to ensure fair valuations of intangible assets [12] - It is recommended to include liability clauses in contracts with assessment institutions to mitigate risks associated with inaccurate evaluations [12]

Core Viewpoint - Ping An Pension Insurance Co., Ltd. is conducting a series of financial knowledge dissemination and risk prevention activities nationwide, themed "Love and Responsibility: Insurance Makes Life Better," aimed at enhancing public financial literacy and risk awareness [1][9]. Group 1: Financial Knowledge Dissemination - The Anhui branch of Ping An Pension Insurance is engaging with corporate clients by distributing financial knowledge brochures and providing detailed explanations about insurance coverage, significance, and claims processes, helping employees understand the positive role of insurance in their lives [2]. - The Guizhou branch organized an event that attracted over 60 corporate employees, where they learned about basic financial knowledge through interactive methods, indicating a strong desire for financial education among participants [2]. - The Henan branch focused on educating the public about illegal financial activities, including illegal fundraising and online fraud, using case studies to enhance citizens' risk identification and prevention capabilities [2][4]. Group 2: Community Engagement - The Hubei branch conducted financial knowledge lectures and fraud prevention case presentations in a community setting, providing residents with essential insurance knowledge and legal consultation services [5]. - The Shanxi branch collaborated with other insurance companies to host financial education activities in a community, utilizing games and quizzes to engage residents in learning about insurance [5]. - The Guizhou branch visited a local primary school to educate students on common fraud tactics and the dangers of campus loans, fostering a correct consumption mindset among young learners [5]. Group 3: Employee Training and Compliance - The Anhui branch emphasized the importance of compliance and integrity among employees through training sessions focused on financial ethics and discipline, using case studies to reinforce the message [6][8]. - The training included watching a warning education film to enhance employees' awareness of discipline and integrity in their professional conduct [6]. Group 4: Future Initiatives - Ping An Pension Insurance plans to continue its multi-dimensional financial education practices to build a robust financial safety net for the public, contributing to a better quality of life [9].

Group 1 - The event "Little Bankers" organized by Agricultural Bank of China Jinan Phoenix Branch aims to educate children about financial knowledge through interactive activities [1][2] - Activities included a "branch exploration" where children learned about banking operations, such as using ATMs and understanding cash security [1] - The currency knowledge class featured storytelling and interactive games, helping children recognize and understand the evolution of currency [1] Group 2 - The "Counting Master Show" showcased professional counting techniques, impressing children with the skills demonstrated [2] - Children participated in hands-on experiences, learning to count money and understanding the complexities involved in financial transactions [2] - The event emphasized the importance of financial literacy, rational consumption, and risk awareness among young participants [2]