[Table_Tag] 宏观策略 证券研究报告 东吴证券晨会纪要 东吴证券晨会纪要 2025-05-09 宏观点评 20250508：关税迷雾深，联储降息更难择机——2025 年 5 月 FOMC 会议点评 核心观点：5 月 FOMC 上美联储如期维持利率水平不变。发布会中 Powell 表达了对经济前景更大不确定性与滞胀风险的担忧，同时 Powell 也表示 关税带来的滞胀风险让美联储在就业与通胀目标中的抉择将更具挑战 性，这意味着美联储择机降息难度将更大，对待货币政策也将采取更加谨 慎的的态度，因此当前市场计价的全年 3 次降息预期面临进一步向下修 正的风险。 风险提示：特朗普政策落地节奏与预期相差较大；美联储维 持高利率水平时间过长，引发金融系统流动性危机；通胀下行速率不及预 期。 [宏观深度报告 Table_MacroStrategy] 20250508：基于 38 个国家的比较：为何我国消费率偏低 我国居民可支配收入比重高于国际平均、消费倾向低于国际平均，是否说 明我国居民部门"有钱不愿花"？并非如此，由于个税和财产税主要影响 少数中高收入者，因此剔除中高收入者后，对大多数居民而言，我国跟其 他国家 ...

证券代码：002903 证券简称：宇环数控 宇环数控机床股份有限公司 投资者关系活动记录表 股权激励计划的稳步实施不仅提升了管理人员及关键岗位员工 的积极性和团队凝聚力，更增强了企业在行业内的人才吸引力，充分 彰显了公司中长期人才激励机制的效果。公司将综合考虑企业经营发 展的实际情况，充分利用资本市场优势，努力实现激励措施的常态化。 4、公司的拉床产品及其下游应用方向有哪些？ 公司拉床产品主要为高速数控硬拉床、数控螺旋拉床、端面齿拉 床等各种系列立式拉床和卧式拉床。可加工材料包括金属材料零件， 如齿轮、叶片、涡轮盘榫槽等关键零部件，还可加工非金属材料零件， 如尼龙涂覆件、石墨件等。拉床产品的下游主要应用于汽车、航空航 天、风电、工程机械、机器人、无人机、船舶、农机等行业领域。 5、公司 2025 年业绩预测及未来业务增长方向？ 根据公司 2025 年财务预算报告，公司基于 2024 年财务决算情况 以及目前行业和市场实际情况与谨慎性原则，预计 2025 年公司的营 编号：2025-006 投资者关系活 动类别 特定对象调研 分析师会议 媒体采访 业绩说明会 新闻发布会 路演活动 现场参观 其他（电话会议） 参 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in both revenue and profit for Q1 2025, primarily due to weak demand and intense industry price competition [1][2]. Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue was 740 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.17% - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 99 million yuan, down 24.17% year-on-year - Non-recurring net profit was 85 million yuan, a decline of 20.35% year-on-year [1] Profitability Analysis - Gross margin for Q1 2025 was approximately 25.93%, a decrease of 0.46 percentage points year-on-year - Net margin for Q1 2025 was about 13.37%, down 3.88 percentage points year-on-year - The significant drop in net margin was attributed to: 1. Increase in operating expense ratio by 1.99 percentage points to 10.85% 2. Decrease in other income by approximately 6.7 million yuan 3. Reduction in investment income by about 3.33 million yuan 4. Increase in asset impairment losses by approximately 2.35 million yuan [2] Cash Flow and R&D Investment - Operating cash flow improved significantly, with a net cash flow from operating activities of 12 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 106.33% - R&D expenses for Q1 2025 reached 36 million yuan, an increase of 8.08% year-on-year, maintaining a high R&D expense ratio of 4.85% - Continuous R&D investment is crucial for enhancing product competitiveness and advancing core component self-research [3] Strategic Outlook - The machine tool industry is likely at the bottom of its cycle, with potential demand growth from policies like "Two New" and "Two Heavy" - The company is expanding its product line and upgrading technology through sustained R&D investment - Production capacity will be enhanced at the Guangdong subsidiary, and the Ningbo high-end CNC machine tool intelligent production base project is progressing - Global marketing efforts are being established, with subsidiaries in Germany and Serbia already set up - As manufacturing industry conditions improve, the company's performance is expected to gradually recover [4] Long-term Projections - Despite short-term performance pressures, the company is expected to benefit from policy opportunities and structural growth - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 555 million yuan, 650 million yuan, and 759 million yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 18x, 15x, and 13x [4]

丨证券研究报告丨 公司研究丨点评报告丨海天精工（601882.SH） [Table_Title] 海天精工：Q1 盈利能力有所下降，期待制造业 筑底修复 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 公司发布 2025 一季报，25Q1 实现营收 7.40 亿元，同比-2.17%；归母净利润 0.99 亿元，同比 -24.17%；扣非归母净利润 0.85 亿元，同比-20.35%。24 年公司产品销量保持稳健增长，卧加 机型表现较为亮眼。分产品来看，24 年公司龙门、卧加、立加销量分别同比增长 11.4%/32.0%/4.5%。公司短期业绩虽有所承压，但中长期仍将持续受益于政策机遇、自主可控、 出海等结构性机会。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵智勇 臧雄 SAC：S0490517110001 SAC：S0490518070005 SFC：BRP550 SFC：BVO790 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 海天精工（601882.SH） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 海天精工：Q12] 盈利能力有所下降，期待制造业 ...

Group 1 - The modernization of the national governance system and governance capacity is a crucial guarantee for national modernization, as highlighted in the decision made by the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China [1] - The decision emphasizes the need to strengthen the fundamental system, improve the basic system, and innovate important systems as part of the institutional framework of socialism with Chinese characteristics [2][3][4] Group 2 - The fundamental system serves as the foundation of the socialist system, reflecting its essential content and characteristics, and is crucial for maintaining stability and direction [2] - The basic system plays a significant role in political and economic life, requiring continuous improvement to adapt to changing societal needs [3] - Important systems derived from the fundamental and basic systems need ongoing innovation to enhance governance effectiveness and adapt to new challenges [4] Group 3 - The leadership of the Communist Party is identified as the most essential characteristic of socialism with Chinese characteristics, underpinning the advantages of various systems [5] - The focus on a people-centered approach is essential for modernizing governance, ensuring that the interests and rights of the populace are prioritized [6] - The commitment to innovation while maintaining core principles is necessary for enhancing governance effectiveness and adapting to contemporary challenges [6] Group 4 - Systematic advancement of governance modernization requires an understanding of the interconnectedness of various governance components, emphasizing the need for integrated and coordinated reforms [7][8] - Legal frameworks are vital for ensuring the systematic and coordinated nature of governance modernization, providing a foundation for stability and long-term success [8] - A scientific approach to governance modernization involves recognizing the laws of governance and development, ensuring that reforms are both targeted and effective [9]

Core Viewpoint - The earnings presentation of Qiao Feng Intelligent highlighted the company's strong financial performance in 2024 and Q1 2025, with significant growth in revenue and net profit, while also addressing investor inquiries about strategic directions and product applications in various industries [6][8]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 1.76 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.02%, and a net profit of 205 million yuan, up 21.33% [6][8]. - For Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 478 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 29.92%, and a net profit of 74.57 million yuan, which is a 44.97% increase [6][8]. Strategic Directions - The company is focusing on expanding its production capacity and enhancing its technological capabilities to meet the growing demand in high-end sectors such as aerospace and new energy vehicles [6][8]. - The company is also exploring the potential of humanoid robots as a new market for its CNC machine tools, indicating a strategic interest in this rapidly developing field [6][8]. Product Applications - Qiao Feng Intelligent's products are applied in various sectors, including new energy vehicles, 3C industries, aerospace, and military applications, although specific revenue contributions from these sectors were not disclosed [6][8]. - The company is developing multiple five-axis machining centers to cater to complex processing needs in high-end industries, although their current sales contribution remains small [6][8]. Investment and Growth Opportunities - The company plans to raise funds through a potential stock issuance to support its rapid expansion and operational needs, although this is still in the preliminary authorization stage [6][8]. - The establishment of new production bases in Dongguan and Nanjing is expected to alleviate capacity constraints and support the company's growth in key markets [6][8]. Industry Outlook - The CNC machine tool industry in China is anticipated to have significant growth potential due to strong government support, increasing demand for machine tool upgrades, and the acceleration of domestic replacements [6][8].

证券研究报告 通用自动化2024年报&2025年一季报总结 通用设备需求筑底静待复苏，挖掘机器人&FA自动化等α机会 首席证券分析师：周尔双 执业证书编号：S0600515110002 zhouersh@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师：钱尧天 执业证书编号：S0600524120015 qianyt@dwzq.com.cn 2025 年 5 月 7 日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 1 核心要点 ◆工业自动化：2025Q1需求/业绩有所改善，推荐业绩拐点已至的工业FA板块。 我们选取10家工业自动化标的，包括【埃斯顿】【汇川技术】（东吴电新组覆盖）【埃夫特】【新时达】【拓斯达】【机器人】【怡合达】【绿 的谐波】【国茂股份】【中大力德】进行分析。2024年合计实现营收592.48亿元，同比+6%，中位数收入同比增速分别为-3%/-10%。 2024年工业自 动化行业合计归母净利润为34.18亿元，同比-40%，中位数归母净利润同比增速分别为-33%和-26% 。整体来看，工业自动化行业利润增速正逐步下 滑，一方面受收入端增速放缓影响，另一方面价格竞争情况仍未有明显改善。重点推荐工业自动化细分板块：工业F ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The visit of President Xi Jinping to Russia signifies the deepening of pragmatic cooperation between China and Russia, showcasing resilience and complementarity despite external challenges [1][2] - The bilateral trade volume between China and Russia reached $244.8 billion in 2024, marking a 1.9% year-on-year increase, with China maintaining its position as Russia's largest trading partner for 15 consecutive years [2][4] - The strategic cooperation between the two nations is characterized by enhanced political trust, deepening strategic collaboration, and expanding cultural exchanges, reflecting their commitment to a multipolar world and a shared future [2][3] Group 2: Economic Cooperation - The pragmatic cooperation between China and Russia is showing strong momentum in emerging sectors such as technology innovation, automotive production, cross-border e-commerce, and medical equipment, indicating significant growth potential [4][5] - Traditional cooperation areas, including machinery manufacturing, heavy industry, aerospace, energy, and logistics, are expected to continue driving the strategic partnership forward [4][5] - New cooperation potentials are identified in complementary industrial sectors, with Russia excelling in raw materials and heavy machinery, while China leads in computer and precision equipment manufacturing [5][6] Group 3: Trade Dynamics - In the first three months of the year, the trade volume between China and Russia was $53.213 billion, reflecting a 6.6% year-on-year decline, although a significant increase of 16% was observed in March [6][7] - The decline in trade volume is attributed to seasonal factors and does not indicate a long-term trend, as both countries are committed to maintaining stable and predictable economic cooperation [6][7] - Despite challenges posed by external trade conflicts, the cooperation between China and Russia is expected to persist, with both nations aiming to establish a multipolar world [7][8]

Group 1 - The 19th China International Machine Tool Exhibition (CIMT2025) was held in Beijing, showcasing the achievements of China's high-end equipment manufacturing industry, with Qizhong CNC presenting four new machine tool products and one core technology [1] - Qizhong CNC's precision vertical turning-milling-grinding composite processing center features a processing diameter of 2.5 meters, integrating multiple machining processes to significantly enhance production efficiency and precision [1][2] - The machine is widely applicable in industries such as engineering machinery, shipping, and energy, capable of efficiently completing high-precision machining tasks for large rotating parts [1] Group 2 - The processing center employs a direct-drive worktable design, eliminating traditional motor and gearbox components, which reduces cumulative errors and achieves high precision and rapid response [2] - This core advantage has led to an increasing market share in high-end processing fields, with products exported to manufacturing powerhouses like Europe, America, and Japan [2] - The DVT350 high-precision static pressure guide rail beam technology, developed by Qizhong CNC, features a multi-channel independent oil supply system that enhances precision and stability in various applications [2] Group 3 - Qizhong CNC's DVTG250×25/20B-MC double-column vertical turning-grinding processing center won the "Top Ten Independent Innovations" award for 2024, significantly improving efficiency by 600% in processing hard-sealed butterfly valves [3] - The company has delivered over 50,000 machine tools, with notable products recognized as "the main equipment of the Republic," reflecting its significant role in China's machine tool industry [3] - Qizhong CNC has set new records in heavy machine tool manufacturing, marking major breakthroughs in China's equipment manufacturing sector [3]

在国家对机床行业政策扶持与市场需求双驱动下，秦川集团在进行自身业务结构优化的同时，聚焦行业 关键核心"卡脖子"技术问题，积极承担机床产业"链主"责任，有序构筑工业母机原创技术策源能力，全 面推进"两链融合"，加快成果转化，推进产业转型升级。 秦川集团研发结构加速转型，磨齿机产品原创技术取得重大突破，齿形形状误差ffa≤0.0012mm，高精高 效齿轮加工机床磨削精度达到国标3级，数控丝杠磨床磨削滚珠丝杠精度能稳定达到P1级；VMT630F5 高速立式铣车复合加工中心重复定位精度误差小于4微米，综合性能指标国内领先。行星滚珠丝杠副突 破多线螺纹加工、内齿圈加工和快速装配等设计制造技术。 4月21日至26日，秦川集团以"数智秦川.装备领航"为主题，携YKZ7230数控蜗杆砂轮磨齿机、YK7326 数控成形砂轮磨齿机、YK4626数控强力珩齿机、BL80-ATC数控车床、CH7265Y车铣复合中心、 HMCP80卧式加工中心、SK7620C数控内螺纹磨床、MKS1332CBN×7.5数控高速外圆磨床等具有"高 精、高效、数字、智能、绿色"的机床精彩亮相第十九届中国国际机床展览会(CIMT2025)，全方位展示 秦川 ...