Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Link Real Estate Investment Trust (0823 HK) with a "Buy" rating and a target price of HKD 50.59 [1][8] Core Views - Link REIT is the first listed REIT in Hong Kong, focusing on essential consumer scenarios with a total asset valuation of approximately HKD 225.8 billion. The annualized return for unit holders since listing is 10.9%, highlighting its high yield and stable growth characteristics. Factors such as RMB appreciation, population recovery, Federal Reserve rate cuts, and inclusion in the Stock Connect are expected to drive valuation recovery [1][19][24]. Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The report emphasizes that the appreciation of the RMB and the recovery of the resident population are likely to boost the Hong Kong retail sector, creating a favorable environment for local retail recovery [2][20]. - The widening dividend yield spread and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve enhance Link REIT's investment appeal, with the current yield spread at 204 basis points, above the historical average of 187 basis points [3][21]. - The potential inclusion in the Stock Connect could attract long-term funds and increase demand for Link REIT, which has a strong focus on essential consumer assets and a robust ability to withstand economic cycles [3][22]. Differentiation from Market Views - The report argues that concerns regarding the Hong Kong retail sector's performance are manageable, with the stock price having corrected approximately 44% from its 2019 peak, indicating that pessimistic expectations are largely priced in. The report suggests that the market has not fully priced in the positive impacts of RMB appreciation, population recovery, and potential Federal Reserve rate cuts [4][23]. Financial Performance and Valuation - The projected distributable amounts for Link REIT for the fiscal years 2026-2028 are HKD 69.08 billion, HKD 69.82 billion, and HKD 70.52 billion, reflecting a slight decline in 2026 followed by modest growth in subsequent years. The report uses a dividend discount model for valuation, arriving at a target price of HKD 50.59 based on a long-term dividend growth rate of 0.5% [5][19].

Group 1: FedEx - FedEx announced a dividend increase of $0.28 (5%) to $5.80 per share, effective July 8, with a yield of 2.6% [4][8] - The company reported a slight year-over-year revenue increase to over $22 billion, but a 12% rise in non-GAAP net income to just under $1.1 billion [5] - Despite beating revenue estimates, FedEx's profitability fell short, and management has continually reduced guidance for fiscal 2025, leading to investor caution [6][8] Group 2: Realty Income - Realty Income raised its dividend by a modest 0.2%, resulting in a payout slightly under $0.27 per share, with a yield of 5.6% [9][12] - The company focuses on leasing to stable businesses, such as supermarkets and home improvement stores, and has expanded into new segments and regions [10] - Realty Income's first-quarter revenue increased nearly 10% year-over-year to $1.38 billion, with adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) rising slightly above 10% [11]

Core Insights - The Chinese public REITs market has shown strong growth since its inception in 2021, with a market capitalization exceeding 200 billion yuan and 66 projects listed, making it the largest in the Asia-Pacific region [2][7][11] - The market is currently in a policy dividend period, supported by favorable regulations and increasing investor recognition, particularly in a low-interest-rate environment [6][4] - The investment attractiveness of REITs is gradually increasing, with a rebound in secondary market valuations and a year-to-date return of 17.4% as of June 13, 2025 [14][4] Market Development Review - The market has benefited from progressive policies, including the issuance of the National Development and Reform Commission's 1014 document, which has laid a foundation for sustainable growth [6][2] - New asset types, such as data centers and senior living facilities, are gaining traction, with significant oversubscription rates for recent projects, indicating strong market demand [7][11] - The issuance of holding-type real estate ABS has reached 13.603 billion yuan, contributing to the development of a multi-tiered REITs market [11][14] Future Market Outlook - The expansion of asset types and the acceleration of initial offerings and expansions are expected to enhance the market ecosystem, providing diverse investment options for investors [25][26] - The construction of a multi-tiered REITs market is deemed necessary to cater to varying risk preferences and asset development stages, covering the entire lifecycle from cultivation to exit [27][28] - Increasing the diversity of the investor base, including public funds and foreign capital, is essential for enhancing market liquidity and depth [29][4] Investment Strategy - In the context of low interest rates and an "asset shortage," the REITs market is viewed positively for the second half of the year, although valuation risks should be monitored as the market valuation center rises [4][37] - Strategies such as primary market participation, dividend trading, and expansion gaming are recommended for investors to optimize returns [42][46][49] - The market's performance is expected to be influenced by new issuances and unlockings in the second half of the year, with a total of 28 projects involving 26.8 billion yuan set to unlock [40][41]

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 1、 二级市场 2025年6月9日-2025年6月13日（以下简称"本周"），我国已上市公募REITs二级市场价格整体呈现稳步上 行的趋势：加权REITs指数收于143.48，本周回报率为0.74%。与其他主流大类资产相比，回报率由高至低 排序分别为：原油>黄金> REITs>美股>纯债>A股>可转债。 从单只REIT层面来看，本周单只REIT成交规模和换手率方面表现延续分化。成交量方面，周内成交量前 三的是华安张江产业园REIT/华夏中国交建REIT/博时蛇口产园REIT；成交额方面，周内成交额前三的是 华夏中国交建REIT/中金安徽交控REIT/国泰君安城投宽庭保租房REIT。 主力净流入：本周主力净流入总额为-1230. ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley forecasts a return rate of approximately 10% for Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) in 2025, with varying growth potential across different property types [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Expected Returns - The expected return for REITs in 2025 is driven by a 4% dividend yield, 2%-7% growth in funds from operations (FFO), and potential valuation expansion [1] Market Performance - REITs have shown strong performance at the start of 2025, but recent market volatility makes future trends uncertain [1] - Historical trends indicate that when economic downturn risks transition from mere concerns to actual impacts on corporate earnings, market focus on REITs tends to increase [1] Interest Rate Impact - Higher interest rates, particularly the influence of the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, pose risks to stock performance [1] Earnings Expectations - REIT earnings are projected to grow by approximately 3% in 2025, remaining stable compared to 2024, with an acceleration to nearly 6% growth expected by 2026 [1] - The growth opportunities for REITs are anticipated as more real estate assets re-enter the market, which could drive earnings acceleration in 2026 [1] - In the event of a significant economic slowdown, REITs may exhibit greater earnings resilience compared to most market sectors [1] Key REITs with High Returns - Notable REITs expected to exceed a 10% return in 2025 include: - Diversified Healthcare Trust (DHC.US) - Paramount Group (PGRE.US) - EPR Properties (EPR.US) - American Healthcare REIT (AHR.US) - Peakstone Realty Trust (PKST.US) - Welltower (WELL.US) - JBG SMITH Properties (JBGS.US) - American Tower (AMT.US) - Medical Properties Trust (MPW.US) - W. P. Carey (WPC.US) - NETSTREIT (NTST.US) - Alexander's (ALX.US) - Postal Realty Trust (PSTL.US) - VICI Properties (VICI.US) - SBA Communications (SBAC.US) - Crown Castle (CCI.US) [1]

6月8日，领展房地产投资信托基金发布公告，针对近期媒体关于其可能计划将中国内地及香港以外若干 物业分拆为单独上市实体的猜测进行澄清。 公告显示，领展董事会注意到若干媒体报导猜测领展房托可能计划将其在中国内地及香港以外若干物业 分拆为单独上市实体。董事会谨此澄清，领展作为积极的管理人，会定期就各项资本及其他企业交易进 行可行性研究，包括所猜测的潜在分拆上市，务求为领展房托的基金单位持有人创造价值及增进长远利 益。然而，有关可行性研究可能会或可能不会引致任何交易。 领展表示，若进行任何潜在交易，将会在需要时严格遵守香港联合交易所有限公司证券上市规则及房地 产投资信托基金守则的相关规定。同时，领展也表示，除已披露的信息外，并不知悉任何根据上市规则 及 / 或房地产投资信托基金守则需予披露的其他资料。 财报数据显示，领展2024/2025财年收益仍达142.23亿港元，同比增长4.8%，物业收入净额增长5.5%至 106.19亿港元。截至2025年3月31日，领展共拥有154项物业资产，其中130项位于香港，12项位于内 地，12项分布在澳大利亚、新加坡和英国，总估值达到2260亿港元。 具体表现来看，期内香港物业组 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current operational status and balance sheets of U.S. REITs remain robust, but they face market volatility due to unpredictable tariff policies, which have impacted stock prices and cast a shadow over the commercial real estate market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Year-to-date, the U.S. Real Estate Investment Trust ETF (SCHH.US) has increased by 0.8%, slightly underperforming the S&P 500 index, which rose by 1.0% [1]. - REITs are expected to become key players in acquisitions as private market valuations return to more reasonable levels, supported by strong balance sheets and capital market financing advantages [1][2]. Group 2: Economic Impact - Tariff policies do not directly affect REITs but impact their tenant base, influencing demand for industrial logistics and other types of real estate [2]. - The macroeconomic slowdown is exerting pressure on sectors such as hotels and office buildings, while potential tariffs disrupt the financing market, increasing fundraising difficulties [2]. Group 3: Financial Health - REITs have extremely healthy balance sheets, with long debt maturities that prevent them from being forced into large-scale refinancing during high-interest periods [2][3]. - The diversity of REITs' asset classes, including telecommunications infrastructure, data centers, retail, healthcare, and self-storage, allows investors to adjust their allocations flexibly according to economic conditions [2][3]. Group 4: Sector Performance - The office market shows significant differentiation, with high-quality office buildings nearing full occupancy, while low-quality buildings face challenges [3]. - Emerging real estate sectors now account for a substantial portion of REITs' total market value, demonstrating resilience even with high vacancy rates [3]. Group 5: Interest Rate Environment - Historical data indicates that REITs perform well during high-interest periods, as their debt costs have not surged significantly due to longer debt maturities [4]. - Investors are currently awaiting clarity on the interest rate environment, which is expected to lead to improved performance for REITs once the outlook becomes clearer [4][5].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The REITs market is expected to continue to perform well due to the downward pressure on bond market interest rates, enhancing the attractiveness of REITs as a high-dividend, low-to-medium risk asset. The expectation of increased participation from social security and pension funds further supports this outlook [3][5][6]. Market Overview - As of the 23rd week of 2025, the CSI REITs (closing) index stood at 881.85, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.7% and a week-on-week increase of 1.55%. The CSI REITs total return index reached 1107.26, with a year-on-year increase of 18.05% and a week-on-week increase of 1.58% [3][5][14][18]. - The trading volume in the REITs market reached 465 million shares, a year-on-year increase of 18.93%, while the trading value amounted to 2.093 billion yuan, up 29.28% year-on-year. The turnover rate for the period was 2.4%, down 23.08% year-on-year [3][25][29]. Sector Performance - Weekly and monthly performance of various REITs sectors for the 23rd week of 2025 showed the following changes: - Affordable housing: +0.12% (weekly), +4.05% (monthly) - Environmental: +0.84% (weekly), +0.17% (monthly) - Highways: +2.72% (weekly), +5.37% (monthly) - Industrial parks: +0.88% (weekly), +1.92% (monthly) - Warehousing and logistics: +0.85% (weekly), +5.21% (monthly) - Energy: +2.24% (weekly), +3.96% (monthly) - Consumer: +1.41% (weekly), +7.67% (monthly) [3][36][54]. Upcoming Developments - Xinyi Energy plans to issue public REITs based on solar power plants, aiming to enhance the quality and expansion of infrastructure REITs. The Shanghai Municipal Development and Reform Commission supports the identification of quality projects that do not currently meet REIT issuance conditions and encourages collaboration with existing REIT platforms [4][12][13].

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 06 月 08 日 [Table_Title] 公募 REITs 总市值首次突破 2000 亿元 ——公募 REITs 周速览（2025 年 6 月 2-6 日） 本周（2025 年 6 月 2-6 日）中证 REITs 全收益指数收于 1107.26 点，周度上涨 1.58%，2025 年来首次突 破 1100 点位。中证 REITs（收盘）指数收于 881.85 点，周度上涨 1.55%。我国基础设施公募 REITs 市场已上 市 66 个项目，本周总市值收于 2021 亿元，首次突破 2000 亿元大关，环比上涨 1.95%。大类资产角度，本周 REITs 各资产板块均上涨，整体跑赢沪深 300、债券板块、沪金和 COMAX 黄金，跑输中证 500、中证 1000、 恒生科技和沪银。 图 1：REITs 市场整体表现 资料来源：WIND，华西证券研究所 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00 9.00 0.55 0.65 0.75 0.85 0.95 1.05 1.15 1.25 1.3 ...

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 06 月 08 日 [Table_Title] 公募 REITs 总市值首次突破 2000 亿元 ——公募 REITs 周速览（2025 年 6 月 2-6 日） 图 1：REITs 市场整体表现 资料来源：WIND，华西证券研究所 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00 9.00 0.55 0.65 0.75 0.85 0.95 1.05 1.15 1.25 1.35 2021/9/30 2022/2/28 2022/7/31 2022/12/31 2023/5/31 2023/10/31 2024/3/31 2024/8/31 2025/1/31 REIT全收益成交额（右轴） 中证REITs全收益 沪深300 中证500 中证1000 中证转债 基准线（1.00） 注 1：通常用中证 REITs 全收益指数（指数代码：932047）或中证 REITs（收盘）指数（指数代码：932006）来反映沪深市场上市 REITs 的整体表现，二者均选取沪深市场中满足一定流动性条件和上市时间要求的 RE ...