REITs 2025 年 12 月 28 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -14% -7% 0% 7% 14% 22% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 中证REITs全收益 沪深300 相关研究报告 《REITs 市场单周各板块均有所回 调，发行市场保持活跃—行业周报》 -2025.12.21 《提升全社会资源配置效率，保障房 REITs 单周表现优异—行业周报》 -2025.12.14 《稳步发展 REITs 和资产证券化， 发行市场保持活跃—行业周报》 -2025.12.7 保障房 REITs 单周表现优异，发行市场保持活跃 ——行业周报 一周行情：保障房 REITs 单周上涨 3.65%，单月累计下跌 0.83% 2025 年第 52 周，中证 REITs（收盘）指数为 783.86，同比下跌 2.59%，环比上 涨 1.39%，2024 年年初至累计上涨 3.63%，同期沪深 300 指数累计上涨 35.74%， 累计超额收益-32.11%。中证 REITs 全收益指数 1014.8，同比上涨 5.3%，环比上 涨 1.56%， 2024 年年初至今累计上涨 1 ...

Core Viewpoint - Public REITs in China are evolving from financial innovation tools to significant drivers of infrastructure construction and high-quality economic development, with over 100 projects recommended by the National Development and Reform Commission, expected to mobilize over 1 trillion yuan in new investments [2][3]. Group 1: Role of Public REITs - Public REITs play a crucial role in revitalizing a vast amount of existing assets, facilitating a sustainable path for new investments of over 1 trillion yuan [3]. - They help improve financial structures and promote inclusive finance by enhancing companies' balance sheets and alleviating debt financing pressures [4]. - Public REITs create a virtuous cycle of investment, operation, exit, and reinvestment, guiding capital towards major national strategic areas [3][4]. Group 2: Market Development and Future Expectations - The public REITs market is expected to expand further, with increased liquidity and a broader range of asset types anticipated [7]. - Long-term funds, including social security funds and pension funds, are expected to enter the market, enhancing the investment landscape [7][25]. - The market is projected to stabilize and grow in the next two years, with a multi-tiered REITs market gradually established [8][25]. Group 3: Current Market Conditions - The public REITs market has experienced a downturn, with the CSI REITs total return index dropping over 6% from its mid-year peak [19][20]. - Factors contributing to this decline include profit-taking by investors, low distribution rates, and a shift of funds to the stock market [20][21]. - Despite the current market adjustments, there is optimism for recovery, with expectations that public REITs will regain their appeal as a stable cash flow asset [21][22]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to focus on stable, defensive REITs that provide predictable cash flows, such as those related to public infrastructure and essential services [15][16]. - The emphasis is on identifying assets with strong operational stability and reasonable valuations, particularly in the context of market fluctuations [15][23]. - The long-term investment potential of public REITs is highlighted, with a recommendation for investors to consider those with solid underlying asset quality and growth prospects [12][13].

Core Viewpoint - The secondary market for industrial park REITs is under pressure, with a significant number of products experiencing price declines, influenced by the recent quarterly reports and deteriorating fundamentals [1][4][6]. Market Performance - As of November 3, 2023, out of 76 publicly listed REITs, 58 have seen price declines, with industrial park REITs accounting for 7 of the top 10 products with the largest drops, including 4 that fell over 3% in a single day [1][2]. - Year-to-date, 13 publicly listed REITs have experienced price declines, with 7 being industrial park REITs, indicating a significant impact on this sector [3]. Fundamental Analysis - The recent price adjustments in industrial park REITs are attributed to the impact of the third-quarter reports, revealing operational pressures and declining key metrics such as occupancy rates and average rents in cities like Hefei, Guangzhou, and Chengdu [4][6]. - The EBITDA and distributable amounts for the industrial park sector have seen declines exceeding 10%, with over 80% of the products reporting performance downturns [4]. Sector Differentiation - Within the industrial park sector, there is a notable differentiation, with industrial factory assets performing relatively stable, while research and office assets face significant pressure [5]. Future Outlook - The future of industrial park REITs is influenced by supply-demand dynamics, with an oversupply of office space leading to declining occupancy rates and rents, creating a competitive environment with homogenized offerings [6][7]. - The regional limitations of these REITs, often tied to local industrial development, restrict their ability to diversify and mitigate risks, potentially leading to uniform performance issues across similar assets [7].

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in industrial park REITs is attributed to the impact of third-quarter fund reports, revealing deteriorating fundamentals and operational pressures within this asset class [1][5][9] Group 1: Market Performance - As of November 3, among the 76 publicly listed REITs, 58 experienced price declines, with industrial park REITs dominating the top ten largest drop-offs [1][3] - The China Securities REITs Index and the full return index both fell by 0.63%, indicating a broader market downturn [1] - Notably, seven out of the ten worst-performing products were industrial park REITs, with four experiencing daily declines exceeding 3% [1][2] Group 2: Fund Performance - Year-to-date, 13 publicly listed REITs have seen price declines, with industrial park REITs accounting for seven of these, highlighting significant underperformance [4] - The top five worst-performing REITs this year are all industrial park REITs, with declines ranging from -19.11% to -8.37% [4] Group 3: Fundamental Issues - The decline in industrial park REITs is primarily driven by falling core metrics such as occupancy rates and average rents in key cities like Hefei, Guangzhou, and Chengdu [5][8] - Over 80% of the industrial park REITs reported a decline in performance metrics, with EBITDA and distributable amounts dropping by more than 10% [5][6] Group 4: Future Outlook - The future of industrial park REITs is influenced by fundamental improvements, the feasibility of expansion, and investor preferences [9] - The sector faces challenges due to supply-demand imbalances in office spaces, leading to increased competition and reduced rental rates [7][8] - The localized nature of many industrial park REITs limits their ability to diversify and mitigate risks, potentially leading to uniform underperformance across similar assets [8][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Increase" for the C-REITs sector [5] Core Insights - The C-REITs market is expected to benefit from a low interest rate environment in 2025, with three main investment strategies suggested: focusing on policy-driven projects, recognizing the value of weak-cycle assets, and monitoring the expansion of REITs alongside new issuances [4][5] - The C-REITs secondary market has shown volatility, with municipal water conservancy and data center sectors performing well, while affordable housing and industrial park sectors experienced slight pullbacks [12] Summary by Sections REITs Index Performance - The CSI REITs total return index increased by 0.16% this week, closing at 1045.1 points, with a year-to-date increase of 7.98% [10][11] - The index performance of major benchmarks this week includes the CSI 300 up by 3.24% and the Hang Seng index up by 3.62% [10][11] REITs Secondary Market Performance - The total market capitalization of listed REITs is approximately 217.68 billion yuan, with an average market cap of about 2.9 billion yuan per REIT [12] - Among the listed REITs, 46 increased in value while 28 decreased, with an average weekly increase of 0.28% [12] REITs Valuation Performance - The internal rate of return (IRR) for listed REITs shows significant differentiation, with the top three being Huaxia China Communications REIT at 9.9%, Ping An Guangzhou Guanghe REIT at 9.4%, and Zhongjin Hubei Keti Guanggu REIT at 8.1% [3] - The price-to-net asset value (P/NAV) ratio for various REITs ranges from 0.7 to 1.8, indicating varying levels of valuation [3] Trading Activity - The data center sector exhibited the highest trading activity this week, with an average daily trading volume of 1.68 million shares and a turnover rate of 0.6% [2] - The top three REITs by trading volume were Huatai Zijin Bay Logistics REIT, Huatai Jiangsu Traffic Control REIT, and China Merchants Fund Shekou Rental Housing REIT [2]

Core Insights - The 2025 Sustainable Global Leaders Conference is being held in Shanghai from October 16 to 18, showcasing local brokerage services in supporting the real economy [1] Group 1: Company Strategy and Performance - Guangdong Kai Securities has leveraged its strategic position in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area since 2017, promoting a strategic transformation that integrates investment, investment banking, and research [3] - The company has acquired high-tech assets and currently holds controlling stakes in listed companies in energy generation, biomedical devices, and new energy sectors, issuing Guangdong's first industrial park REITs [3] - Guangdong Kai Securities has invested over 120 billion yuan, creating an industrial ecosystem worth over 700 billion yuan, and has been recognized as a "Double Hundred Enterprise" among China's top 500 service companies [3] Group 2: Investment and Market Position - The company has made significant investments in projects such as BeiGene, Xiaopeng Motors, and WeRide, with BeiGene becoming the highest-valued stock in the biotech sector on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [3] - Local state-owned enterprises like Guangdong Kai Securities are more flexible in policy execution compared to central and provincial enterprises, enhancing team motivation through market-oriented assessment mechanisms [3] Group 3: Financial Inclusion and Research Contributions - Guangdong Kai Securities is actively promoting the issuance and trading of intellectual property to facilitate the transformation of intellectual property into assets, benefiting small and medium-sized enterprises [3] - The company's research institute has undertaken various projects for central and state council ministries, providing insights on macroeconomics, real estate finance, and new productivity [3] Group 4: Long-term Vision - The emphasis on long-termism in technology finance is highlighted, advocating for patience and sustained investment to build a win-win ecosystem [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent mid-term reports of 12 listed industrial park REITs indicate that these entities are actively addressing market challenges and enhancing their leasing efforts to stabilize the operation of their underlying assets [1][2] Group 1: Performance Metrics - As of June 30, 2025, Huazhang Zhangjiang Industrial Park REIT's overall occupancy rate increased to 93.03%, a year-on-year rise of 13.62% [3] - Dongwu Suyuan REIT maintained a rental collection rate of 95.95% with an average rental price of 1.74 yuan per square meter [3] - Guotai Junan Lingang Innovation Industrial Park REIT achieved an occupancy rate of 97.80% and a collection rate of 92.78% [3] - Guotai Junan Dongjiu New Economy REIT reported an occupancy rate of 95.47% and a rental collection rate of 99.77% [4] - Zhongjin Hubei Keti Guanggu REIT extended its remaining lease term to 1,076 days, a growth of approximately 57% year-on-year [4] - Boshi Tinkai Industrial Park REIT's occupancy rate was 87.54%, with a secondary market increase of 53.29% since listing [4] Group 2: Dividend and Cash Distribution - The listed industrial park REITs adhere to regulations by distributing over 90% of the annual available distributable amount to investors [5] - Zhongjin Hubei Keti Guanggu REIT reported a distributable amount of 29.99 million yuan for the first half of 2025, with an annualized distribution rate of 4.45% [6] - Boshi Tinkai Industrial Park REIT achieved a distributable amount of 38.88 million yuan, exceeding the expected amount by 20.82% [6] - Huatai Nanjing Jianye REIT's distributable income was 25.91 million yuan, with distribution ratios of 99.54% and 99.89% for two distributions [6] Group 3: Market Outlook and Strategies - The average cash distribution rate for industrial park REITs in 2025 is projected to reach 4.2%, with some high-quality projects exceeding 5.5% [7] - Fund managers emphasize the importance of enhancing fund management levels and adjusting leasing policies to protect investor interests [7] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange is focused on improving governance and incentive mechanisms for listed REITs, aiming to support stable cash flow for investors, particularly small investors [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the REITs sector, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the coming years [7]. Core Insights - The REITs market is expected to benefit from a low interest rate environment in 2025, with three main investment strategies suggested: focusing on policy-driven projects, selecting resilient assets, and monitoring the expansion of REITs [4]. - The report highlights a trend of performance divergence among various REIT sectors, emphasizing the importance of timing in investment decisions [1][4]. Summary by Sections Warehousing and Logistics - In Q2 2025, the average occupancy rate for warehousing logistics REITs was 94.3%, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.8 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 4.4 percentage points [10]. - The average rental rate was 52.4 CNY/sqm/month, reflecting a competitive market where tenants are cautious about renewing leases [10][11]. Consumer Infrastructure - The average occupancy rate for consumer infrastructure REITs in Q2 2025 was 97.1%, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.9 percentage points, although it saw a year-on-year decline of 1.3 percentage points [14]. - The average rental rate was 217.9 CNY/sqm/month, showing a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 3.9% but a year-on-year increase of 5.0% [14][15]. Affordable Housing - The average occupancy rate for affordable housing REITs was 96.0% in Q2 2025, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.0 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 0.9 percentage points [20]. - The average rental rate was 54.0 CNY/sqm/month, indicating stability in rental income despite slight fluctuations [20]. Industrial Parks - The report notes a decline in both occupancy rates and rental income for industrial parks, driven by increased competition and economic pressures [2]. Highways - In Q2 2025, highway REITs experienced a seasonal decline in traffic volume, but year-on-year comparisons showed recovery, particularly in freight traffic which increased by 1.3% [3]. Energy and Environmental Protection - The performance of energy and environmental protection REITs was mixed, with wind power projects performing well while solar projects faced challenges due to decreased sunlight and increased competition [3].