华夏凯德商业REIT

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华夏凯德商业REIT申购价值分析
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-07-13 07:12
Group 1 - The core assets of Huaxia Kaide Commercial REIT are the Changsha Yuhua Pavilion project and the Guangzhou Yunshang project, both of which have shown steady growth in revenue and increasing occupancy rates. Approximately 70% of the leases expiring in 2025 have been renewed or replaced, indicating potential for future rent growth [3][9] - The expected fundraising amount for the fund is 2.297 billion yuan, with a projected fair value range for the project assets over the next 12 months estimated between 2.347 billion and 2.923 billion yuan, yielding an IRR of 6.90% to 7.87% [3][4] - The fund anticipates distribution rates of 4.84% and 4.85% for the years 2025 and 2026, significantly higher than the latest distribution rates of comparable consumer REITs [3][4] Group 2 - The Changsha project focuses on entertainment and retail, while the Guangzhou project is primarily driven by dining. The Changsha project has seen an increase in daily foot traffic from 26,500 to 31,600 people, with revenue growing from 495 million yuan to 624 million yuan from 2022 to 2024 [17][20] - The Guangzhou project has also experienced growth, with daily foot traffic reaching 44,400 and sales of 743 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 24.82% and 9.83% respectively from 2022 to 2024 [21][25] - The original equity holder, CapitaLand Commercial, has a rich reserve of projects and a deep accumulation of asset securitization, with a total of 35 consumer infrastructure assets exceeding 3 million square meters [3][38] Group 3 - The overall revenue for the projects from 2022 to 2024 was 230 million, 245 million, and 252 million yuan respectively, with the Guangzhou Yunshang project contributing over 60% of the total revenue [49][51] - The EBITDA for the projects was 126 million, 135 million, and 74 million yuan, with a significant drop in the Guangzhou project’s EBITDA in 2024 due to asset impairment losses [49][51] - The projects have a stable revenue structure, with fixed rent accounting for over 60% of total income, while management fees contribute between 20% and 30% [53][55] Group 4 - The occupancy rate has gradually increased to over 96%, with the Changsha project maintaining an occupancy rate above 95% for the past three years. The Guangzhou project has also seen an upward trend in occupancy rates, reaching 95.5% in 2024 [3][3] - The rental yield ratio for the Changsha project was 14.5%, 14.4%, and 13.5% from 2022 to 2024, while the Guangzhou project showed a higher rental yield ratio of 24.2%, 18.9%, and 19.3% during the same period [3][3] - The projected fair value range for the project assets is between 2.347 billion and 2.923 billion yuan, with a predicted capitalization rate of 4.55% to 5.50% for 2025, which is lower than comparable REITs [4][4]
【财经分析】消费基础设施REITs表现优异 友好市场环境促新项目跑步入场
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-05-14 23:24
Core Viewpoint - The acceleration of approval for consumption infrastructure REITs in 2024 reflects growing market interest and recognition, particularly in the context of China's economic recovery, positioning REITs as a favored investment tool for institutions [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of the end of 2024, the average occupancy rate for consumption infrastructure REITs was 97.69%, an increase of 3.68% from the assessment point, indicating strong performance [2] - Most consumption REITs met their revenue targets for 2024, with an average completion rate of 102.10%, showcasing their potential and resilience [2] - The secondary market for consumption REITs has seen significant price increases, with some REITs experiencing over 40% growth year-to-date, outperforming other asset classes [3] Group 2: New Projects and Market Dynamics - The total issuance scale of public consumption infrastructure REITs reached 21.326 billion yuan, ranking third among various public REITs sectors, following transportation and park infrastructure [4] - The entry of foreign asset management companies into China's public REITs market, such as the 华夏凯德商业REIT, highlights the attractiveness of China's consumer market [4] - The launch of the 中金唯品会REIT, focusing on outlet assets, aligns with current consumer trends and reflects the potential for new types of REITs in the market [5] Group 3: Institutional Recommendations - Institutions are advised to continue investing in consumption REITs as they serve as a bridge between the real economy and capital markets, promoting high-quality development in consumption infrastructure [6] - The current market environment, characterized by low interest rates and ample incremental capital, presents a favorable opportunity for institutions to engage with REITs [6] - Investors are encouraged to focus on key performance indicators such as rental income, occupancy rates, and operational costs to assess the efficiency and profitability of REITs [7]