Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in gold and silver funds, triggered by the nomination of hawkish Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, has led to significant market panic and liquidity traps for investors [2][6][11]. Group 1: Market Reaction - On February 2, the Guotai Silver LOF fund resumed trading and immediately hit the daily limit down, with sell orders exceeding 8 billion yuan, while the trading volume was only around 50 million yuan by midday [3][5]. - Major gold and silver funds, including E Fund and Harvest, experienced daily declines of over 7%, with some ETFs hitting the limit down, reflecting a nearly 30% maximum drawdown over the past three trading days [5][6]. Group 2: Causes of Decline - The direct catalyst for the decline was President Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh, known for his hawkish monetary policy stance, which raised fears of a shift in monetary policy [6][11]. - Following this announcement, international precious metal futures prices plummeted, with silver futures experiencing a single-day drop of over 30%, the largest since 1980, and gold futures dropping over 10% [6]. Group 3: Investment Risks - The investment frenzy in gold and silver funds, particularly the Guotai Silver LOF, revealed multiple risks, including liquidity traps and a lack of understanding of the fund's arbitrage mechanisms among investors [8][10]. - The Guotai Silver LOF saw its price premium soar to over 60%, attracting speculative investments, but the subsequent market downturn has left many investors facing significant losses due to the rapid decline in both the fund's net asset value and the premium [10][11]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest a "long-term bullish, short-term bearish" outlook for precious metals, indicating that while short-term volatility is expected, the long-term demand from global central banks will continue to support gold prices [7]. - The current market conditions highlight the importance of value investing and caution against speculative behavior, as many investors may become trapped in high-premium situations [11].

海外市场方面，美联储1月维持利率不变符合预期，美国总统特朗普确定下任美联储主席人选引发市场对后续货币政策走向猜测，美债 收益率曲线趋向陡峭。 行情回顾 2026年1月30日，中债国债到期收益率1年期、2年期、3年期、5年期、7年期、10年期、30年期、50年期较1月23日分别变动 1.8BP、-1.94BP、-2.09BP、-2.04BP、-1.82BP、-1.86BP、0.19BP、1.5BP。 新华财经北京2月2日电（王柘）上周（2026年1月26日至1月30日）资金跨月，偏紧格局在央行流动性呵护下缓解。债券市场在商品和权 益市场走弱以及年初配置盘推动下多数走强，收益率下行约2BP。超长端或受供给担忧因素影响表现偏弱，收益率上行约1BP。 | | | 中债国债收益率曲线(到期)* | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 标准期限(年) | 1月23日 | 1月30日 | 变动(BP) | | 0 | 1.088 | 1.112 | 2.4 | | 0.08 | 1.2608 | 1.2641 | 0. 33 | | 0. 17 | 1.3228 | 1. 3443 | 2. 15 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the importance of supporting financial workers and enhancing their well-being through direct engagement and assistance initiatives [1] Group 1: Financial Institutions Engagement - A慰问组 led by Tao Ling visited various financial institutions in Beijing to express care and greetings to workers, including those facing difficulties and labor models [1] - The group visited specific locations such as Galaxy Securities, PICC, and Construction Bank to understand the operational conditions and services provided to the public [1] Group 2: Worker Support and Welfare - Tao Ling highlighted the need for financial unions to focus on the actual needs of workers and to develop long-term support mechanisms to improve their sense of gain, happiness, and security [1] - The initiative aims to promote the spirit of labor models and craftsmanship, encouraging workers to contribute to the high-quality development of the financial sector [1]

南方财经记者 翁榕涛 实习生 胡剑铭 周内（1月26日至1月30日），大宗商品市场分化加剧。基本金属板块涨跌不一，贵金属板块冲高回 落。 具体来看，能源化工板块，燃油周上涨6.70%、原油上涨6.54%；黑色系板块，焦煤周下跌0.13%、 焦炭下跌0.03%、铁矿石下跌0.44%；基本金属板块，碳酸锂周下跌18.36%、沪锌上涨5.08%、沪镍下跌 5.63%；贵金属板块，沪金周上涨4.10%、沪银上涨11.92%；农产品板块，鸡蛋周下跌1.44%、生猪下跌 2.98%。 交易行情热点 热点一：投机情绪降温，黄金冲高后大幅回落 本周黄金期货市场经历剧烈波动，前期受地缘避险情绪推动创下历史新高后，因美联储政策预期生 变大幅回调。截至1月30日，沪金主力2604合约报1161.42元/克，周涨4.10%；伦敦金收于4880美元/盎 司，周跌2.07%，日内最大跌幅达9.29%，创40年来最大单日跌幅。 供给上，全球黄金供应保持稳定，矿山产量与回收量稳步释放，未出现明显缺口。2025年全球黄金 总需求达5002吨创历史新高，但供应端未出现大幅波动，供需格局相对均衡。央行售金规模有限，新兴 国家央行延续购金态势，进一 ...

岁暮风动地，夜寒雪连天 。 光大研究财经月历，一览重点经济数据发布时间表。两款尺寸手 机屏保，全球财经大事尽在掌握。 瘦身版适合苹果X等全面屏 EAUA883 FRE MON- TUE二 WED三 THU四 FRI五 SAT六 SUN日 1 十四 3 4 5 8 0 十八 十六 立春 美国1月 非农就业/失业率 中国1月 第周1月 制造业PM 外汇储备 12 15 10 13 9 14 甘八 北方小年 冬七九 情人节 甘五 22 1 ୧ 19 20 21 18 17 冬八九 除夕 初三 初四 初五 雨水 美国1月零售 23 25 28 24 26 27 初八 +二 初七 初九 初十 +一 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美国1月 制造业PMI | 十六 | 立春 | 十八 | 非农就业/失业率 | 中国1月 外汇储备 | 甘一 | | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | | 甘二 | 北方小年 | 中国1月 M2/社融/CPI/PPI 美国1月CPI | 甘五 ...

以下文章来源于债券人 ，作者光大证券固收研究 债券人 . 唯有进行扎实的基本面研究，方能行稳致远。 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客 户，用作新媒体形势下研究信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿 订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便， 敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相关人员为光大 证券的客户。 分评级来看，债项评级高评级券（评级为AAA）、中高评级券（评级为AA+）、中评级券（评级为 AA）、中低评级券（评级为AA-）和低评级券（评级为AA-及以下）本周涨跌幅分别为-0.81%、-1.48% 、-1.51%、-1.87%、-2.81%，高评级券跌幅最低。 分转债规模看，大规模转债（债券余额大于20亿元）、中大规模转债（余额在15至20亿元之间）、中规模 转债（余额在10至15亿元之间）、中小规模转债（余额在5至10亿元之间）、小规模转债（余额小于5亿 元）本周涨跌幅分别为-1.42%、-1.59%、-1.93%、-1.49% ...

Core Viewpoint - Indian stocks are experiencing increased volatility, leading to skepticism among investors and a significant outflow of foreign capital [1][5]. Market Volatility - The India NSE Volatility Index has risen by 4.5 points from a record low in December, indicating heightened hedging demand, and reached its highest level since June [2]. - The Nifty 50 Index is currently around a three-month low, with daily derivatives turnover averaging over 300 trillion rupees ($3.3 trillion), the highest since regulatory curbs began in November 2024 [4]. Investor Sentiment - Some investors believe the current turbulence is due to global portfolio rebalancing rather than a fundamental shift in India's market narrative [3]. - Foreign investors have withdrawn approximately $3.5 billion from the Indian market this month, following a record outflow of $18.8 billion last year [5]. Economic Factors - Rising oil prices and a weakening rupee, which has reached a record low, are contributing to market pressures [4]. - The upcoming annual budget is anticipated to address defense spending and state-run company share sales, which could influence market sentiment [5]. Performance Trends - The Nifty 50 has declined over 3% this year, making Indian shares some of the worst performers globally [5]. - Historically, January has been a challenging month for Indian stocks, with the Nifty 50 logging its worst start to a year in a decade, although it has not recorded an annual loss since 2015 [8]. Investment Perspectives - Some investors view Indian stocks as a diversification strategy, particularly as a hedge against AI-related trades, suggesting potential for future inflows if sentiment improves [9]. - The absence of AI-related stocks and high valuations, with Nifty 50 shares trading at 19.5 times estimated earnings compared to 13.5 times for MSCI Emerging Markets Index, are significant concerns for many investors [10]. Market Dynamics - The rise in Japanese government bond yields may lead to a capital shift back to Japan, as Japanese investors hold about $28 billion in Indian equities [7]. - Incremental capital is being directed towards markets with AI earnings, which raises the bar for Indian stocks in the near term, despite not negating India's structural story [11].

"见证历史""惊掉下巴""这也跌太多了吧"，一夜醒来，朋友圈被黄金白银暴跌的感慨刷屏了，有投资者 感叹"一下吞掉了五天的涨幅"。 南华期货贵金属新能源研究组负责人夏莹莹告诉记者，相较于另两位热门人选贝莱德公司高管里德以及 白宫经济顾问哈塞特，沃什的立场相对偏鹰派，且更倾向于维护美联储的独立性，这一预期弱化了市场 对美联储宽松货币政策的预期，对金银价格形成了一定压制。 关于沃什真正的货币政策立场，市场也有颇多不同声音。公开信息显示，沃什曾公开批评量化宽松政策 的副作用，认为美联储需要与美国财政部在政策上更紧密地协作。在美联储任职期间，沃什一直对通胀 保持警惕，并经常支持加息。然而，2025年他却赞同特朗普的观点，认为利率可以大幅降低，也因此被 市场质疑或向政治妥协。 国联民生证券研究所宏观首席分析师林彦指出，在本次美联储主席提名竞选中，沃什明确表示支持降 息，并直言当前利率水平"应当更低"。这一表态正好符合特朗普政府的政策诉求，也在一定程度上缓解 了特朗普团队对其"鹰派"立场的担忧。 沃什同时强调，美联储与财政部应各司其职，前者负责利率调控，后者管理财政账户，双方需扭转以往 职责界限不清的局面，并通过达成新协议 ...

"见证历史""惊掉下巴""这也跌太多了吧"，一夜醒来，朋友圈被黄金白银暴跌的感慨刷屏了， 有投资者感叹"一下吞掉了五天的涨幅"。 记者丨 唐婧 实习生 曹莹博 编辑丨方海平 视频丨许婷婷 关于沃什真正的货币政策立场，市场也有颇多不同声音。公开信息显示，沃什曾公开批评量化 宽松政策的副作用，认为美联储需要与美国财政部在政策上更紧密地协作。在美联储任职期 间，沃什一直对通胀保持警惕，并经常支持加息。然而，2025年他却赞同特朗普的观点，认为 利率可以大幅降低，也因此被市场质疑或向政治妥协。 资料图 国联民生证券研究所宏观首席分析师林彦指出，在本次美联储主席提名竞选中，沃什明确表示 支持降息，并直言当前利率水平"应当更低"。这一表态正好符合特朗普政府的政策诉求，也在 一定程度上缓解了特朗普团队对其"鹰派"立场的担忧。 南华期货贵金属新能源研究组负责人夏莹莹告诉记者，相较于另两位热门人选贝莱德公司高管 里德以及白宫经济顾问哈塞特， 沃什的立场相对偏鹰派，且更倾向于维护美联储的独立性， 这一预期弱化了市场对美联储宽松货币政策的预期，对金银价格形成了一定压制。 21世纪经济报道记者注意到，1月30日晚间，国际黄金、白银又 ...

经济观察网证监会网站显示，浙江孔辉汽车科技股份有限公司2026年1月31日向浙江证监局办理辅导备 案登记，辅导机构为中信建投（601066）证券股份有限公司。 ...