据悉宁德时代枧下窝锂矿停产，为期至少三个月。受此消息影响，周一早盘澳洲锂矿股已率先上涨，其 中Pilbara矿业有限公司一度大涨近19%。澳洲市场中，Liontown资源有限公司股价一度上涨近22%， Mineral资源有限公司一度上涨近12%。 ...

文章来源：券商中国 碳酸锂供应扰动再起！ 这个周末，很多券商都在讨论一件事，那就是宁德时代枧下窝锂矿停产。有消息称，该矿山采矿端将于8月10日起停产，且短期内没有复产计划。因此，市场普遍认为，周一（8月11日）开盘， 那么，影响究竟有多大？碳酸锂是否会迎来反转行情？有券商研究员表示，该矿山相配套的三大冶炼厂合计产能10万吨LCE，若实际发生停产，则影响月度供应约0.8万吨LCE，约占国内碳酸锂 市场疯传停产 据证券时报．e公司记者实探，当地村民表示，"矿区是昨晚停的。以前晚上正常开工时，灯火通明，山上放炮，山下的房子都能感受到。"在湖溪村采访时，记者巧遇了几位投资者。"我们可能 有一种分析认为，此次停产可能与企业需在矿种重新认定、资源税补缴、技术迭代之间持续寻找平衡点有关。2025年7月1日生效的新《矿产资源法》将锂列为独立矿种，并提高伴生矿认定标准 资料显示，2022年4月20日，宁德时代通过全资子公司宜春时代新能源矿业有限公司，以8.65亿元的报价成功竞得江西省宜丰县圳口里-奉新县枧下窝矿区陶瓷土（含锂）探矿权。此次竞拍采用 去年9月，就出现过有关该矿暂停的消息。瑞银发布的一份研报显示，宁德时代在一次会议 ...

"我们真切地希望'小作文'能少一些，碳酸锂价格在合理区间平稳运行。"李欢说。 期货日报记者留意到，过去几周，江西大厂矿区(宁德时代（300750）枧下窝矿区)停产的消息备受关 注，该消息也成为碳酸锂价格波动的核心原因之一。 "一会儿传言说停，一会儿又说没停，这些'小作文'太让人揪心了。我们干采购的，不关注行情肯定不 行，要是没及时察觉价格变动，错过了低价采购的机会，会被领导狠狠地批评一顿。"一家头部材料厂 的采购负责人李欢(化名)无奈地告诉期货日报记者，当市场行情随着"小作文"波动时，产业企业很"受 伤"。 作为下游材料厂的采购人员，李欢的工作是依据原材料价格变化制定相关采购策略。此前，他踩准节奏 选择了合适的价格进行套保，但几天后市场情绪又因"小作文"出现变化，价格朝着反方向走。 "作为产业企业，我们必须严格遵循套保规则，如果频繁地调整买卖策略，就有投机交易的嫌疑，可能 被财务和审计问责。"李欢说。 当下，大多数产业企业也面临和李欢一样的困境。碳酸锂价格被"小作文"牵着鼻子走，确实让整个行业 都陷入进退两难的境地。 从库存来看，当前碳酸锂市场仍处于累库状态。数据显示，截至8月7日当周，碳酸锂社会库存为14. ...

Group 1 - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for July has increased expectations for interest rate cuts in September, leading to a rebound in the Hong Kong stock market [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in each of the next four meetings, according to JPMorgan's updated forecast [1] - The establishment of the Xinjiang Railway Company with a registered capital of 95 billion yuan is anticipated to boost demand for cement by 40 million tons, benefiting various sectors including construction and machinery [2] Group 2 - The lithium carbonate supply side is facing a significant impact as the Jiangxi Jianxia Mine has confirmed a production halt with no short-term plans for resumption [3][6] - The production halt is expected to last over three months, leading to a monthly supply shortage of over 10,000 tons during the peak consumption season [7] - The annual surplus of lithium is projected to decrease from 171,000 tons to approximately 140,000 tons if the production halt extends into 2026, potentially leading to a tight balance in the lithium market [7] Group 3 - Smoore International has released a performance forecast for H1 2025, expecting a year-on-year adjusted net profit change of approximately -1.4% to +24.6% [4] - The company is actively diversifying its business, expanding into the fields of aerosol beauty and medical applications, with a focus on 2025 as a key year for its second growth curve [5] - Smoore's HNB product GloHilo has received positive feedback in Japan, and the company is leveraging its extensive patent portfolio to support its business transformation [4][5]

Global Market Dynamics - Trump is scheduled to meet with Putin on Friday [1] - China's deflation is expected to ease under the "anti-involution" trend [1] Industry Developments - CATL (宁德时代) has suspended production at a large lithium mine [1]

Group 1: Market Overview - The A-share market showed positive performance last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 2.11%, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 1.25%, and the ChiNext Index up by 0.49% [2][3]. Group 2: Industry Insights - The suspension of mining operations at the Jiangxia Wokou mine of CATL is expected to positively impact the lithium industry, as this mine accounts for approximately 3% of global lithium production. The price of lithium carbonate futures surged to 76,960 yuan per ton following this news [4]. - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the core CPI rose by 0.8% year-on-year in July, marking the third consecutive month of growth, while the PPI saw a month-on-month decline of 0.2% [7][8]. Group 3: Regulatory Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) plans to enhance the attractiveness and inclusivity of the domestic capital market by promoting long-term capital and implementing reforms to support long-term investments [8][9]. - The CSRC will maintain strict controls on IPOs to prevent large-scale expansions in the market, ensuring that the current market dynamics remain stable [9]. Group 4: Sector Analysis - Analysts from CITIC Securities suggest focusing on strong industry trends, particularly in sectors like non-ferrous metals, telecommunications, innovative pharmaceuticals, gaming, and military industry, while avoiding speculative trading in micro-cap stocks [16]. - Shenwan Hongyuan emphasizes that the bull market atmosphere is unlikely to dissipate easily, with expectations for supply-demand improvements in 2026 [17]. - Guojin Securities highlights that the current market adjustment is a structural shift rather than a sign of a market peak, with policy support being crucial for market stability [24]. Group 5: Investment Strategies - Investment strategies should focus on sectors with high growth potential, such as new consumption, defense, AI computing, and humanoid robots, as these areas are expected to perform well in the current market environment [22][27]. - The market is anticipated to transition to a performance-driven phase, with an upward adjustment in the index as liquidity improves and policies supporting infrastructure and anti-involution are implemented [25].

Core Insights - The report maintains a positive outlook on the lithium carbonate industry, anticipating a recovery in profitability due to the confirmed suspension of the Xialu Lithium Mine, which will impact monthly production by approximately 7,000 to 8,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent [6][4][1] - The report suggests focusing on lithium mining resource-related companies such as Zhongmin Resources, Tianqi Lithium, Ganfeng Lithium, and others, as they are expected to benefit from the tightening supply and rising prices in the lithium market [6][4][1] Lithium Industry - The suspension of the Xialu Lithium Mine is confirmed with no immediate plans for resumption, leading to a tighter supply in the market [6] - The report highlights that several lithium mines in Jiangxi may also face potential suspensions due to mining license approval processes, further tightening supply [6] - The report anticipates that the traditional peak season from September to November will exacerbate supply-demand tightness, driving up lithium carbonate prices [6] Rare Earth Industry - The report notes a recent decline in rare earth prices, with specific decreases of 1.88% for oxide prices and 0.47% for mixed metal prices [6] - Despite the short-term price adjustments, the long-term outlook remains positive due to supply chain control and capacity consolidation, which are expected to support price increases [6] - Companies such as China Rare Earth, Northern Rare Earth, and Baotou Steel Rare Earth are recommended for investment due to their strategic positioning in the rare earth market [6] Precious Metals - The report indicates that weak economic data from the U.S. and dovish signals from Federal Reserve officials are likely to support gold prices in the medium to long term [6] - The report suggests focusing on gold mining companies with expected production growth, such as Shandong Gold and Zhaojin Mining, as they are likely to benefit from the rising gold prices [6] Industrial Metals - The report discusses the copper market, noting that domestic supply is increasing while demand may face risks from declining cable and new energy sector needs [6] - For aluminum, the report highlights low social inventory levels, which are expected to support aluminum prices in the short term [6] - Companies like Zijin Mining and China Aluminum are recommended for their potential growth in production and market positioning [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for lithium carbonate is "Bullish" [6] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, lithium salt prices rose again. The closing prices of LC2508 and LC2509 increased by 9.9% and 11.2% respectively. The spot average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.8%. The prices of lithium hydroxide continued to rise. The short - term price is expected to remain strong, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips and the positive spread opportunity between months [2][13]. - The mining end of Ningde Times' Jianxiawo Mining Area is planned to stop production on August 9th with no short - term resumption plan. This will lead to a production loss of about 11% of domestic lithium carbonate, turn the Q3 balance sheet into de - stocking, and narrow the annual balance sheet's inventory accumulation amplitude [4][18]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Supply - side Disturbance Materializes, and the Futures Market Rises Again - From August 4th to 8th, lithium salt prices rose. LC2508 and LC2509 closing prices increased by 9.9% and 11.2% respectively. SMM battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate spot average prices increased by 0.8%. Lithium hydroxide prices continued to rise [2][13]. - In July, Chile exported 23,800 tons of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, a 40% month - on - month increase and a 9% year - on - year increase. Exports to China were 13,600 tons, a 33% month - on - month increase but a 13% year - on - year decrease. From January to July, the total exports were 149,000 tons, a 6% year - on - year decrease, and exports to China were 96,800 tons, a 17% year - on - year decrease. In July, Chile shipped 10,400 tons of lithium sulfate to China, a 35% month - on - month increase and a 171% year - on - year increase [3][14]. - The mining end of Ningde Times' Jianxiawo Mining Area will stop production on August 9th with no short - term resumption plan. The annual production capacity is 100,000 tons of LCE, and the monthly production of its three supporting lithium salt plants is about 9,000 tons. After the shutdown, the domestic lithium carbonate production loss is about 11% [4][18]. 2. Weekly Industry News Review - Australia is considering setting a price floor to support key mineral projects [20]. - South Korea's POSCO made a $62 million cash offer for the exploration assets of Lithium South Development in Argentina's Hombre Muerto Salar [20]. - A 20,000 - ton/year lithium carbonate project of China Salt Lake went into production and sales on July 31st. The total investment is 2.29 billion yuan, accounting for 17% of the existing lithium carbonate production capacity of China Salt Lake [20]. - In July, Chile's lithium exports to China increased slightly. It exported 13,633 tons of lithium carbonate to China, a 13% year - on - year decrease but a 33% month - on - month increase, expected to arrive at Chinese ports in August - September [21]. - Ningde Times' Jianxiawo Mining Area's mining end will stop production on August 10th with no short - term resumption plan [21]. 3. Key High - frequency Data Monitoring of the Industry Chain 3.1 Resource End: Lithium Concentrate Spot Quotes Rebound - Lithium concentrate spot quotes rebounded [22] 3.2 Lithium Salt: The Futures Market Rebounds Strongly Again - The lithium salt futures market rebounded strongly again [24] 3.3 Downstream Intermediates: Quotes Rise Slightly - The quotes of downstream intermediates rose slightly [37] 3.4 Terminal: China's New Energy Vehicle Inventory Continued to Decline in June - China's new energy vehicle inventory continued to decline in June [43]

Core Viewpoint - Lithium carbonate futures have rebounded after a brief correction, with a weekly increase of 11.02% as of August 8, closing at 76,960 yuan/ton [2][3]. Price Movement - The main contract for lithium carbonate (LC2511) closed at 76,960 yuan/ton, reflecting a weekly increase of 11.02% [2]. - Weekly production of lithium carbonate increased by over 13% to 19,600 tons as of August 7, while weekly inventory only rose by 692 tons, indicating stable downstream demand [4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Concerns about potential production halts at a major mine in Jiangxi are influencing market sentiment, with expectations leaning towards a production cut [4][5]. - The market is currently in a relatively balanced supply-demand phase, with some marginal improvements in fundamentals as demand expectations improve [4]. - Despite the price recovery, supply remains high, and the elasticity of supply is still significant, suggesting limited room for further price increases even if production halts occur [5][6]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that if the current operating rates for mica-derived lithium remain stable, there will be no substantial impact on supply-demand dynamics, although supply shortage concerns may persist [6]. - The potential for overseas supply to increase could exert downward pressure on lithium carbonate prices if related policies do not create sustained constraints [6]. - Investors are advised to approach market fluctuations with caution, as excessive speculation on supply disruptions may pose risks [6].

Group 1 - The Albanese government unexpectedly approved Chinese investment in Australian lithium producer Liontown Resources, marking a shift in its previous stance against foreign investment in critical mineral projects [1][3] - Canmax Technologies, a Chinese battery mineral supplier, will acquire nearly 2% of Liontown for approximately AUD 50 million, while the National Reconstruction Fund Corporation also invested AUD 50 million in the same company [1][3] - The approval of Canmax's investment indicates a softening of the government's previous informal ban on Chinese investments in key mineral projects, which had been in place for most of Albanese's term [1][3] Group 2 - Liontown's spokesperson emphasized the strategic value of a diversified investor base, stating that the financing plan could attract various international investors [3] - The investment from Canmax is part of Liontown's AUD 266 million financing plan aimed at improving its balance sheet [1][3] - The Australian government plans to support critical mineral producers, particularly in rare earth projects, to reduce Beijing's dominance in the supply chain [3][5] Group 3 - China is the largest producer of most critical minerals, which are essential for global energy transition and military equipment manufacturing [4] - Fortescue, an iron ore exporter, announced it secured a loan of 3 billion RMB from several Chinese banks, marking the first time an Australian company has obtained a RMB-denominated syndicated loan [7][8] - The fixed interest rate for Fortescue's loan is 3.8%, the lowest cost of debt in the company's history, indicating a strong alignment with Chinese partners [9]