Group 1 - Advanced process: Demand recovery, AI and mainstream consumption drive high growth [3][30] - Global foundry market revenue is expected to grow YoY by 27% in 2025, driven by GPU/ASIC demand and stable consumer electronics orders [6][30] - The advanced process segment is experiencing a significant increase in wafer consumption due to the complexity of high-end chips [7][9] Group 2 - Mature process: Strong expansion, localization, and specialty processes seek incremental growth [3][30] - Chinese fabs are benefiting from the recovery in consumption, with some wafer manufacturing prices increasing, indicating a shift away from price competition [31][33] - By 2030, China's mature process capacity is expected to exceed half of the global market share [34][41] Group 3 - Key targets and valuations: SMIC is maintaining an aggressive expansion pace, with plans for new factories and increased monthly capacity [55] - The domestic AI chip market in China is projected to grow over 60% by 2026, with local companies increasing their market share significantly [18][20] - The local supply chain is expected to strengthen as international IDM companies collaborate with domestic fabs, enhancing their technological capabilities [42][47]

Group 1 - The global Fab market is expected to grow by 27% year-on-year in 2025, driven by demand from GPU/ASIC and consumer electronics orders [3][9][23] - The advanced process is in an expansion phase, significantly boosted by AI demand, with the Chinese high-end AI chip market projected to grow over 60% in 2026 [3][23][26] - Domestic Fab manufacturers are focusing on mature processes, benefiting from the recovery of the domestic market, with a projected share of over 75% in global mature process capacity additions by 2026 [3][46][53] Group 2 - Key companies to watch include SMIC, Hua Hong Semiconductor, and Jinghong Integrated Circuit, which are positioned to benefit from local manufacturing and the expansion of production capacity [3][41][71] - The third phase of the National Big Fund has not yet entered large-scale project investments, but it is expected to become a capital expenditure increment for the Fab industry in 2026 [3][39][40] - The domestic supply chain is gradually proving itself, with companies like Cambrian and Huawei leading the way in local AI chip production and supply chain development [3][30][34]

Market Overview - The market has potential for further upward movement, supported by resilient U.S. economic indicators and a dovish shift in the Federal Reserve's stance, signaling possible rate cuts in September [1] - Domestic economic indicators show a slowdown in July, with consumption, investment, and real estate cooling down, leading to expectations of increased policy support [1] Sector Performance - The top five sectors with net inflows include semiconductors, lithium batteries, new energy vehicles, rare earth materials, and non-ferrous metals [1] - The leading concept sectors with net inflows are domestic chips, state-owned enterprise reform, Huawei supply chain, artificial intelligence, and central enterprise reform [1] - The top ten individual stocks with net inflows include Northern Rare Earth, Hainan Huatie, Huayou Cobalt, Shenghong Technology, SMIC, Ganfeng Lithium, Nanda Optoelectronics, Jiangfeng Electronics, Kingsoft Office, and Jinli Permanent Magnet [1] Hong Kong Market Insights - The Hong Kong stock market is showing signs of stabilization with positive growth in the first half of 2025, particularly in technology, pharmaceuticals, and raw materials sectors [3] - The performance outlook for the second half of 2025 is optimistic, with expectations of a turnaround in sectors that previously underperformed, such as energy and consumer staples [3] Investment Trends - There is a growing interest in resource cycle-related investments, with several resource-themed funds achieving significant gains this year [5] - The semiconductor sector in A-shares is performing strongly, with leading stocks like SMIC reaching historical highs, attracting attention from foreign institutions [5] Technical and Market Sentiment - The short-term trend of the market is weak, with noticeable inflows of incremental capital, indicating a mixed market sentiment [7][11] - The Shanghai Composite Index remains within a consolidation range, with a critical support level at 3750 points [11]

Market Overview - The market experienced a rebound after a dip, with the ChiNext index rising by 0.21% while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.18% and the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 0.29% [1] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.49 trillion, an increase of 372.9 billion compared to the previous trading day [1] AI and Computing Power Sector - The computing hardware sector remains buoyant due to AI, with a commercial closed loop beginning to form [3] - Nvidia and OpenAI announced a partnership involving an investment of up to $100 billion to build a 10GW data center, which is expected to increase demand for Nvidia's chips at a ratio of 1:3.5 [3] - Major cloud service providers like Google Cloud and Amazon AWS reported significant revenue growth, with Google Cloud's revenue at $13.6 billion (up 32% year-on-year) and AWS at $30.9 billion (up 17.5% year-on-year) [3] Domestic Chip Industry - Domestic computing power penetration is expected to rise rapidly due to overseas sanctions and national security considerations, with current penetration estimated at 20-30% and projected to reach over 50% in the coming years [5] - Huawei plans to launch several new chips between Q1 2026 and Q4 2028, indicating ongoing advancements in domestic chip technology [5] Gold Market - Gold prices have continued to rise, supported by factors such as a weakening U.S. economy, global de-dollarization trends, and geopolitical risks [6][11] - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut has led to increased expectations for future cuts, which may influence gold prices [8] - Central banks, including China's, have been increasing gold reserves, with China having added gold for ten consecutive months [11] Economic Indicators - The Leading Economic Index for large enterprises in the U.S. fell by 0.5% in August, indicating a slowdown in economic activity [10] - The geopolitical landscape remains tense, particularly regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict and escalating tensions in the Gaza region, which could further support gold prices [11]

Group 1: Partnerships and Collaborations - OpenAI and Nvidia announced a partnership agreement, with Nvidia planning to invest up to $100 billion to support OpenAI's data center and infrastructure development, deploying at least 10 gigawatts of Nvidia systems by the second half of 2026 [2] - OpenAI is reportedly collaborating with companies like Luxshare Precision to develop a consumer-grade hardware device, likely utilizing GoerTek's MEMS silicon microphone technology [4] Group 2: Company Leadership Changes - Oracle appointed Clay Magouyrk and Mike Sicilia as co-CEOs, while the current CEO Safra Catz will serve as the executive vice chair of the board [5] Group 3: Product Developments and Innovations - Baidu's Qianfan-VL visual understanding model has been launched and is fully open-sourced, optimized for enterprise-level multimodal applications [6] - Meituan has open-sourced its first self-developed reasoning model, LongCat-Flash-Thinking, achieving over 200% improvement in training speed [8] - Huawei announced its self-developed HBM memory with a maximum capacity of 144GB and bandwidth of 4TB/s, set to be launched in 2026 [12] - The launch of the "Fenghua 3" GPU by ChipMotion, which integrates domestic open-source RISC-V CPU with CUDA-compatible GPU, covering a wide range of applications [16] Group 4: Market Movements and Financial Activities - Baidu's stock performance and the implications of its new model launch on market positioning [6] - The stock of Tianpu Co. surged by 279.73% over 14 consecutive trading days, raising concerns about its valuation relative to fundamentals [14] - Zero Gravity Aircraft Industry completed nearly $14 million in A++ round financing to support the development of new energy aircraft [19]

Group 1: Partnerships and Collaborations - OpenAI and Nvidia announced a partnership agreement, with Nvidia planning to invest up to $100 billion to support OpenAI's data center and infrastructure development, deploying at least 10 gigawatts of Nvidia systems by the second half of 2026 [2] - OpenAI is reportedly collaborating with companies like Luxshare Precision to develop consumer hardware, potentially utilizing GoerTek's MEMS silicon microphone technology [4] - WeRide announced a partnership with Grab to launch the Ai.R autonomous driving service in Singapore, initially deploying 11 autonomous vehicles [9] Group 2: Company Leadership Changes - Oracle appointed Clay Magouyrk and Mike Sicilia as co-CEOs, while the current CEO Safra Catz will serve as the executive vice chair of the board [5] Group 3: Product Launches and Innovations - Baidu's Qianfan launched a new open-source visual understanding model, optimized for enterprise-level multimodal applications, with versions of 3B, 8B, and 70B [6] - Meituan released its first self-developed inference model, LongCat-Flash-Thinking, which improves training speed by over 200% and reduces average token consumption by 64.5% in specific benchmarks [8] - Huawei announced its self-developed HBM memory with a maximum capacity of 144GB and a bandwidth of 4TB/s, set to launch in 2026 [12] - Chipmaker MediaTek unveiled the Dimensity 9500, featuring the latest N3P process and advanced CPU and GPU capabilities, aimed at enhancing mobile performance [15] - Chipmaker Xindong Technology launched the Fenghua 3 GPU, integrating open-source RISC-V CPU with CUDA-compatible GPU for diverse applications [16] Group 4: Financial Activities and Market Movements - Baiwei Storage announced plans to issue H-shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to enhance its global strategy and brand image [17] - Daotong Technology plans to transfer 46% of its stake in Shenzhen Saifang Technology for a total of 109 million yuan, focusing on core business development [18] - Zero Gravity Aircraft Industry completed nearly 100 million yuan in A++ round financing to support the development of new energy aircraft [19] Group 5: Industry Trends and Insights - Brain Tiger Technology's founder highlighted that China's brain science research is transitioning from a "follower" to a "leader" stage, emphasizing the need for high-end talent and support for young researchers [11] - The domestic high-end flagship smartphone market is set for a series of new product launches, with OPPO and vivo announcing upcoming flagship models [20]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market showed mixed performance on September 22, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.12%, driven by gains in sectors such as computer hardware, semiconductors, and electronic components, while the restaurant, tourism, and shipping sectors faced declines [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Chip ETF (159995) increased by 2.06% as of 10:30 AM, with notable gains from component stocks such as: - Rockchip up by 6.72% - GigaDevice up by 6.37% - Haiguang Information up by 4.48% - Wingtech Technology up by 4.06% - Lattice Semiconductor up by 4.01% [1] Group 2: Company Developments - Huawei officially launched its computing power super nodes and clusters, having introduced the Ascend 910 CAI chip in Q1 2023, with plans to release the Ascend 950PR in Q1 2026, the Ascend 950DT in Q4 2026, the Ascend 960 in Q4 2027, and the Ascend 970 in Q4 2028 [1] - Huajin Securities highlighted Huawei's release of two reports, "Intelligent World 2035" and "Global Digital Intelligence Index 2025," predicting that general artificial intelligence will be the most transformative technological driver in the next decade, with total computing power expected to grow by up to 100,000 times by 2035 [1] Group 3: Industry Insights - There is a positive outlook on the entire domestic computing power chip industry chain, encompassing design, manufacturing, packaging, testing, and upstream equipment materials, with a recommendation to focus on the full industry chain of domestic chips [1]

Group 1 - CICC reports that the current A-share market is in a short-term adjustment phase but does not alter the medium-term trend, indicating that this market cycle may possess more "long-term" and "steady" conditions [1] - The growth style has shown signs of diffusion and rotation, expanding from technology growth to sectors such as innovative pharmaceuticals, high-end manufacturing, military industry, and new energy [1] - As the third quarter approaches, investor focus on quarterly earnings reports is expected to gradually increase [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities highlights Huawei's recent announcement of several upcoming AI computing products, including the Ascend 950 series, which will be released between 2026 and 2028, aimed at meeting the growing demand for AI computing power [2] - The report emphasizes the strong demand for AI computing in North America and anticipates a potential recovery in domestic AI computing demand from September to October [2] - Recommendations are made to pay attention to domestic cloud service providers as they are expected to benefit from the evolving AI landscape [2] Group 3 - Minsheng Securities expresses optimism about the humanoid robot industry, predicting significant growth and the potential to reshape the industrial ecosystem over the next 5-10 years, particularly in sectors like industrial manufacturing and medical rehabilitation [3] - The report notes that automotive parts companies possess strong customer expansion and mass production capabilities, giving them a competitive edge in the humanoid robot supply chain [3] - Domestic automotive manufacturers are increasingly entering the humanoid robot market, leveraging their existing customer relationships to quickly integrate into the robot supply chain [3]

Group 1: Market Dynamics - US stock market indices reached new closing highs, with the Dow Jones up 0.27%, Nasdaq up 0.94%, and S&P 500 up 0.48%. Nvidia's $5 billion investment in Intel led to a 22.77% surge in Intel's stock price, marking its largest single-day gain since 1987 [2] - Chinese concept stocks fell, with the index down 1.79%, and major stocks like Alibaba and Tencent declining. The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index also dropped 1.35%, reflecting a general pullback in technology stocks [3] Group 2: Sector Performance - The ChiNext Index initially rose 0.94% but closed down 1.64%. However, sectors like photolithography machines, lithium mining, and optical communication showed strength, with stocks like Xilong Science and Ganfeng Lithium hitting the daily limit [5] - Lithium mining stocks rebounded due to "anti-involution" policies and improved demand for new energy, with Ganfeng Lithium hitting the daily limit and Tianqi Lithium rising 6%. The Rare Metals ETF saw an intraday increase of over 2% [6] - Precious metals sector supported by Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations, though facing short-term valuation pressures [7] Group 3: Regulatory Actions - The Shanghai Stock Exchange took measures against Tianpu Co. for abnormal trading during a control transfer period, including account suspension [8] - The pressure from unlocked restricted shares is evident, with Hengxin Life's 1.9076 million shares being unlocked, accounting for 1.29% of total equity [9] Group 4: Technological Innovation - Huawei announced its Ascend chip roadmap, planning to launch the Ascend 950PR by 2026 to accelerate AI computing ecosystem development [9] - The Ministry of Science and Technology is promoting humanoid robots in manufacturing and logistics, although related concept stocks may be overheated and require caution [9] Group 5: Economic Policies - Shanghai introduced "anti-involution" policies to optimize lithium salt supply, leading to a rebound in industry prices [10] - Real estate policies continue to be implemented, with various regions offering incentives to boost market confidence during the "golden September and silver October" period, although recovery may take time [11] Group 6: Corporate Issues - Hong Kong experienced a gold heist valued at 50 million HKD, with all stolen gold recovered and 11 arrests made [12] - Smartisan Technology was listed as a dishonest executor, with its founder responding that the debt was a company issue and prioritizing repayment to other creditors [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings were provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report offers daily views and strategies for various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products. Each commodity is given a short - term trend judgment such as "oscillating adjustment", "weakly oscillating", etc. [2][5] - The trend intensity of each commodity is also provided, with values ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish), helping investors understand the strength of the expected price trends. [10][14] 3. Summaries by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: The FOMC meeting was in line with expectations. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. Yesterday, the closing price of沪金2510 was 824.10, down 1.31%. [2][7][10] - **Silver**: It is in an oscillating adjustment phase. The trend intensity is 0. Yesterday, the closing price of沪银2510 was 9808, down 0.97%. [2][7][10] Base Metals - **Copper**: The increase in domestic spot premium restricts price decline. The trend intensity is 0. Yesterday, the closing price of沪铜主力合约 was 79,580, down 1.22%. [2][12][14] - **Zinc**: It shows a weakly oscillating trend. The trend intensity is - 1. Yesterday, the closing price of沪锌主力 was 22045, down 1.05%. [2][15][17] - **Lead**: The reduction in inventory supports the price. The trend intensity is 0. Yesterday, the closing price of沪铅主力 was 17145, up 0.26%. [2][18][19] - **Tin**: It oscillates within a range. The trend intensity is 0. Yesterday, the closing price of沪锡主力合约 was 269,100, down 1.26%. [2][21][25] - **Aluminum**: It oscillates within a range. The trend intensity is 0. Yesterday, the closing price of沪铝主力合约 was 20785, down 125. [2][26][28] - **Alumina**: The surplus situation persists. The trend intensity is 0. [2][26][28] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It is supported by cost. The trend intensity is 0. [2][26][28] - **Nickel**: The contradictions at the smelting end are not prominent, and attention should be paid to the news - related risks at the ore end. The trend intensity is 0. Yesterday, the closing price of沪镍主力 was 120,940, down 850. [2][29][35] - **Stainless Steel**: There is a game between long - and short - term logics, and the steel price may oscillate. The trend intensity is 0. Yesterday, the closing price of不锈钢主力 was 12,875, down 60. [2][29][35] Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: The weekly production reaches a new high, and inventory is being depleted. It oscillates within a range. The trend intensity is 0. [2][36][39] - **Industrial Silicon**: The main idea is to short at high prices. The trend intensity is - 1. Yesterday, the closing price of Si2511 was 8,905, down 60. [2][40][42] - **Polysilicon**: The short - term sentiment may cool down. The trend intensity is - 1. Yesterday, the closing price of PS2511 was 53,205, down 285. [2][40][42] - **Iron Ore**: Expectations are fluctuating, and it oscillates widely. The trend intensity is - 1. Yesterday, the closing price of 12601 was 804.5, up 1.0. [2][43] - **Rebar**: It oscillates widely. The trend intensity is 0. Yesterday, the closing price of RB2601 was 3,147, down 8. [2][45][48] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: It oscillates widely. The trend intensity is 0. Yesterday, the closing price of HC2601 was 3,354, down 30. [2][46][48] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and it oscillates widely. The trend intensity is 0. Yesterday, the closing price of硅铁2511 was 5756, down 10. [2][50][52] - **Manganese Silicon**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and it oscillates widely. The trend intensity is 0. Yesterday, the closing price of锰硅2511 was 5948, down 14. [2][50][52] - **Coke**: Expectations are fluctuating, and it oscillates widely. The trend intensity is 0. Yesterday, the closing price of J2601 was 1709, down 25.5. [2][53][55] - **Coking Coal**: Expectations are fluctuating, and it oscillates widely. The trend intensity is 0. Yesterday, the closing price of JM2601 was 1203.5, down 29.5. [2][54][55] - **Log**: It oscillates repeatedly. The trend intensity is 0. Yesterday, the closing price of 2511合约 was 801.5, down 0.9%. [2][56][59] - **Para - Xylene**: It remains weak in the medium term. [2][60] - **PTA**: Maintenance increases, processing fees are restored, but it remains weak in the medium term. [2][60] - **MEG**: Reverse arbitrage for the 1 - 5 month spread. [2][60] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: There is no obvious driving force for both upward and downward movements, and the main strategy is range - bound operation. [5] - **Soybean Oil**: Exports have reappeared, and it is recommended to go long on dips. [5] - **Soybean Meal**: It oscillates at a low level and may rebound from oversold conditions. [5] - **Soybean**: It oscillates at a low level. [5] - **Corn**: It oscillates. [5] - **Sugar**: It oscillates downward. [5] - **Cotton**: The market is concerned about the situation of new cotton listings. [5] - **Egg**: The spot market is weak. [5] - **Live Pig**: Expectations have turned pessimistic, and the trends of basis and spreads are confirmed. [5] - **Peanut**: Attention should be paid to the listing of new peanuts. [5]