Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for stricter regulation and governance of illegal stock recommendations, particularly in light of the increasing sophistication and concealment of such activities due to technological advancements [1][2]. Summary by Sections Regulatory Focus - The government aims to promote healthy development in the real estate and stock markets, which requires a sound market order. Recent years have seen a tightening of regulations against illegal stock recommendations, but these activities have become more hidden and technical [1][2]. Legislative Actions - During the Two Sessions, regulatory officials highlighted the importance of enhancing governance against illegal financial activities on the internet, including illegal stock recommendations [2]. Current Trends in Illegal Stock Recommendations - Illegal stock recommendations have shifted from public social platforms to short videos, live streams, and private groups, using coded language to evade detection [3][8]. - The integration of AI technology has made illegal stock recommendation activities more deceptive and efficient, lowering the entry barrier for perpetrators [5][6]. Impact on Market Dynamics - The use of AI in illegal stock recommendations can create false consensus and induce abnormal price fluctuations in small-cap stocks, leading to significant financial losses for retail investors [6][10]. Challenges in Regulation - Existing laws are lagging behind the evolving nature of illegal stock recommendations, making it difficult to define and regulate these activities effectively [8][10]. - The ambiguity in current regulations regarding "soft recommendations" complicates enforcement actions against illegal practices [8][11]. Recommendations for Improvement - A collaborative mechanism involving various regulatory bodies and platforms is suggested to enhance the enforcement against illegal stock recommendations [10]. - The implementation of AI-driven monitoring systems to identify and counteract illegal stock recommendation tactics is recommended [10]. - Emphasis on targeted investor education to mitigate the allure of "get-rich-quick" schemes associated with illegal stock recommendations [10].

——证券时报券商中国读者 从严整治非法荐股，是这位投资者的期盼，实际也是证券监管部门近来持续发力的监管重点之一。 2025年政府工作报告指出："更大力度促进楼市股市健康发展"。股市的健康发展离不开良好的市场秩序。近年 来，在从严监管基调下，非法荐股活动有所遏制，但随着技术发展，也变得更加隐蔽化、技术化、产业化，危 害更甚，甚至诱发部分中小个股异常波动。 今年两会期间，全国人大代表、北京证监局局长贾文勤也关注到了该问题，她建言强化互联网非法金融活动治 理。证券时报券商中国记者也采访了数位业界人士，揭开非法荐股的花样手段，并探讨综合治理方式。 打击非法荐股，人大代表发声！ 编者按：2025年全国两会期间，本着"问需于市场、问计于市场、问道于市场"的精神，证券时报券商中国 推出"邀您建言 共促资本市场高质量发展"特别策划，征集广大投资者关于如何改革创新、攻坚克难、推动 资本市场平稳健康发展的意见建议。建言活动引发各方积极反响，数日内即征集到数百条质量较高的意见 建议。本报全国两会报道记者带着这些热乎乎、情切切的意见建议，采访了相关代表委员。今日起，特推 出"投资者点题 代表委员共答"栏目，期待能集思广益，凝聚共识， ...

Core Viewpoint - The report emphasizes the importance of considering multiple trading factors in industry comparisons, as relying solely on a single factor may not yield long-term success [2][3]. Trading Factors Worth Noting - Stock prices do not always reflect fundamentals, making trading factors crucial to avoid the risk of "correct logic but poor timing" [3]. - Momentum is highlighted as a key factor, indicating potential industry benefits; industries with positive momentum are likely to perform better in the future [3]. - Turnover rate serves as a measure of how well stock prices reflect positive news; industries with low turnover rates tend to perform better than those with high turnover rates [3]. - Trading congestion is identified as a risk aversion indicator; higher congestion levels often correlate with poorer industry performance [4]. Industry Comparison Scoring Logic - A scoring system based on trading factors is proposed, focusing on industries with potential benefits that are not fully reflected in stock prices and are not overcrowded in trading [5]. - Historical data from February 2014 to January 2025 shows that industries with higher scores yield better performance, with annualized returns of 11.5% for the highest scoring group compared to 0.3% for the lowest [5]. Long/Short Strategy Performance - A long/short strategy, holding the highest scoring industries while shorting the lowest, achieved an annualized return of 10.1% and a Sharpe ratio of 0.75 from February 2014 to January 2025, indicating the effectiveness of the trading factor scoring system [7].

Summary of the Conference Call on the Bond Market Analysis Industry Overview - The analysis focuses on the Chinese bond market, specifically the ten-year government bond yield predictions for 2025 [2][4]. Key Points and Arguments - **Yield Prediction Model**: The model decomposes the ten-year government bond yield into trend and cycle components, achieving a fitting goodness of 0.98. The predicted yields for June and December 2025 are approximately 1.91% and 1.61%, respectively [2][6]. - **Market Behavior**: The market has shown hesitation around the 1.6% yield level, influenced by macroeconomic data improvements and tightening funds. The model aims to analyze these factors to better understand current yield levels and forecast future trends [4][11]. - **CPI and PMI Correlation**: The relationship between CPI and bond market cycles has changed over time. Before 2013, CPI growth was positively correlated with bond cycles. From 2013 to 2019, PMI data became the key indicator, while post-2020, CPI showed a negative correlation with bond cycles due to monetary policy effects [8][10]. - **Interest Rate Predictions**: The model forecasts other maturities based on the ten-year yield, predicting one-year, three-year, five-year, and seven-year yields to be approximately 0.99%, 1.26%, 1.42%, and 1.59% by December 2025 [10][12]. - **Market Sentiment**: The model serves as a neutral anchor, with actual market values expected to fluctuate around this anchor. Expectations of interest rate cuts may lower yields, while rate hikes could increase them [10][11]. - **Model Reliability**: Backtesting shows the model's fitting deviation is within 10%, indicating its reliability. This deviation can help identify overly optimistic market conditions, aiding investors in adjusting strategies [3][13][15]. Additional Important Insights - **Market Dynamics**: The early 2025 market behavior has led to a pessimistic outlook, with the neutral space being consumed early in the year. A breakthrough below 1.6% will require unexpected market stimuli [11][12]. - **Investment Decision Making**: The model provides a reliable benchmark for assessing market sentiment and potential overvaluation. When market deviations exceed 10%, it signals a need for strategy adjustments [14][16]. - **Future Adjustments**: The model is a tool for judgment and should be used alongside market assessments, especially in the face of unexpected events [7][9]. This comprehensive analysis highlights the dynamics of the Chinese bond market and the predictive capabilities of the model developed by the research team.

杨成长分析，纵观全球成熟资本市场发展，其与产业升级、产业发展紧密关联。在加 快培育新质生产力背景下，标杆龙头企业的市场地位尤为重要。这些企业如同股市的"定 海神针"，对于稳定市场预期、引领行业风向至关重要。 支持更多优质创新企业上市 "稳住股市要进一步提高A股市场的可投性，支持更多优质创新企业上市， 推动资本市场与产业深度融合互动。"杨成长表示。 一 "支持优质未盈利科技型企业发行上市，支持境外上市的优质科技企业回归A股，研究 制定更好支持新质生产力发展的专门政策安排等举措应尽快落地。"杨成长建议。 全国政协委员、申万宏源证券研究所首席经济学家杨成长日前在接受记者采访时表 示，稳住股市依然是2025年资本市场高质量发展的重要任务，夯实"稳"的基础，应进一步 提高A股市场可投性，加快资本市场机构化进程，地方政府等也需发挥合力助力稳市场。 "未来，股权投资的长期价值逐渐显现，将成为居民资产配置的重要方向，更多中长期 资金将涌入A股市场助力稳股市。"杨成长表示。 在杨成长看来，稳住股市需要监管部门、地方政府等多方共同努力。 杨成长分析，当前地方政府在借力资本市场服务实体经济时，往往将目光聚焦在上市 公司数量和上市公 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of enhancing investor confidence through stable stock market conditions, focusing on long-term investments and consistent dividends from companies [2][4]. Group 1: Investor Confidence and Market Stability - The government work report has included "stabilizing the real estate and stock markets" as a key requirement, highlighting the need for improved company quality and increased dividends to ensure investor satisfaction [4]. - Since the launch of the "Quality and Return Improvement" initiative, over 400 companies listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange have submitted relevant plans, covering 80% of the ChiNext Index stocks and 50% of the Main Board Index stocks, with a 38% increase in total dividends from Shenzhen-listed companies [4][5]. Group 2: Company Governance and Value Management - Good corporate governance is deemed essential for effective value management, with suggestions to incorporate value management into company assessment systems to motivate management and core employees [6]. - The new "National Nine Articles" and other policies aim to enhance companies' focus on their investment value and improve investor return levels [4][7]. Group 3: Policy Implementation and Market Reform - The article stresses that effective policy implementation is crucial, with representatives advocating for optimized top-level design in value management to support companies in enhancing their investment value through various means such as mergers, share buybacks, and cash dividends [5][7]. - The capital market is undergoing significant changes with the introduction of major policies, leading to improved market ecology and increased investor confidence [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the government's commitment to a moderately loose monetary policy for 2025, aiming to align monetary supply growth with economic growth and price level expectations [2][3] - The report sets a GDP growth target of around 5% and a CPI growth target of about 2%, indicating a more pragmatic approach to monetary growth goals compared to the previous year's targets [3][4] - The focus on structural monetary policy tools is highlighted, with an emphasis on supporting the real estate and stock markets, as well as promoting financing for technology innovation and small enterprises [6][7] Group 2 - The report indicates a significant reduction in the average interest rates for new corporate loans and personal housing loans, suggesting a favorable environment for borrowing [4] - The government plans to utilize various monetary tools flexibly to ensure sufficient liquidity in the market, especially in light of a projected fiscal deficit of approximately 14 trillion yuan [7] - The article notes the importance of maintaining a balanced level of interest and exchange rates, while also addressing external pressures on the currency [8]

GUIDE 摘要 国泰君安：不确定因素增多，股指震荡仍会延续； 中金公司：A股全年市场整体表现有望好于2013年； 长江证券：A股市场的价值底已然形成； 中泰证券：看好AI在今年的全面爆发。 国 泰君安 不确定因素增多，股指震荡仍会延续 国泰君安指出，不确定因素增多，股市震荡已经开始。对于后市仍要明确： 1，由于已看到决策层扭转经济形势与支持资本市场的决心，因此2025年股市有望迎来结构性行情，调 仓不空仓； 2，2025年股市最大的动力来自无风险利率下降后，增量资金入市。长期债券利率"破2"后，看到居民对 固定收益的兴趣在下降，而对股票与权益的兴趣在改观，这是过去三年所没有的重要变化。 3，投资者对当前国际形势与经济形势仍有疑虑，预期的建立与改观需时日，因此股指运行会有N型节 奏而不是没有回调的"疯牛"。 就当前市场而言，不能把近期股市震荡简单理解为"性价比"降低，难以忽视市场在此前上涨计入较多乐 观预期与交易过热后， 下一阶段不确定性因素增多，政策短期暂难快速调整，投资者风险承担意愿会 下降，判断股指震荡仍会延续。 中金公司 A股全年市场整体表现有望好于2013年 中金公司认为， 结合当前宏观背景，A股全 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights significant changes in the executive leadership of securities firms since the beginning of 2024, with at least 13 firms undergoing personnel adjustments, primarily in key positions such as chairman, general manager, and chief information officer [2][10] - Guo Zhonghui has been appointed as the new president of Guokai Securities, succeeding Jiang Daozhen, who served for nearly three years [2][4] - Guokai Securities, with a registered capital of 9.5 billion yuan, is primarily owned by the National Development Bank, which holds 80% of the shares [4] Group 2 - Guokai Securities reported a total asset of 48.789 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.33%, and achieved a net profit of 4.34 billion yuan, up 5.54% from the previous year [6][7] - The firm has recently gained recognition as one of the 25 main underwriters of non-financial corporate debt financing tools, marking its entry into the full-license bond business [6] - Guokai Securities has a strong track record in bond underwriting, with a total issuance exceeding 16 trillion yuan since its establishment, maintaining a leading position in the market for railway bonds for nine consecutive years [6][7] Group 3 - The article notes that Guokai Securities primarily serves institutional clients in its brokerage business, focusing on stock reduction and investment consulting services [8] - The firm has streamlined its brokerage operations, having sold off nine branches in 2020, retaining only one to concentrate on the trading needs of its parent company [8] - The article also discusses the broader trend of executive turnover in the securities industry, particularly in the CIO role, driven by digital transformation pressures and strategic realignments [17]

Group 1 - The Jiangsu Provincial Organization Department announced the pre-appointment public notice indicating that Yin Lihong, the current Deputy Secretary of the Party Committee of Huatai Securities, is proposed to be appointed as the head of a provincial management leadership team [1] - Yin Lihong is 55 years old and has previously worked at Bank of China Nanjing Branch, Bank of China Jiangsu Branch, and Jiangsu Bank [1] - In 2021, Yin was transferred to Huatai Securities as Deputy Secretary of the Party Committee from his role as a senior expert and head of the Party Organization Department and Human Resources Department at Jiangsu Bank [1]