Group 1 - The pork concept sector leads the market with an increase of 2.74% [1] - Bangji Technology saw a rise of 6.39% [1] - Lihua Co., Ltd. increased by 4.81% [1] - Wens Foodstuff Group rose by 4.21% [1] - Muyuan Foods and Tianbang Foods both experienced gains of over 3% [1] - Huatong Foods also saw a significant increase [1]

其次，外调渠道受限，也导致了过剩产能难以向外疏解。作为生猪主产区，外调是广西缓解本地供应压 力的重要途径，但当前外调渠道面临双重阻碍，无法有效疏解过剩产能。与广东市场相比，尽管广西猪 价存在2.0-2.5元／公斤的价差，但两地执行的"点对点"调运政策制约了调运规模。 对于北方销区而言，价差优势则被高额运费抵消。据卓创资讯监测，当前广西与北方地区的猪价价差为 1.6元／公斤上下，广西至华北主销区的生猪运输距离超2000公里，加上检疫、损耗等成本，总成本较 高，两地区价差不足以覆盖调运成本。贸易商外调基本无利润可图，甚至可能亏损，导致北方外调渠道 也基本停滞，本地过剩生猪只能依赖区内消化，进一步压低区域猪价。 多重压力下，近期广西生猪价格持续走低，成为全国猪价"洼地"。据卓创资讯统计，目前广西地区猪价 已成为22个省份的最低价，并且较全国平均水平低1.0-1.4元／公斤，部分低价地区甚至已经跌破成本 线。 分析来看，养殖端计划出栏量增加、调运受限、环保行动、以及猪病的发生等多重因素，共同导致广西 猪价低迷。 首先从出栏情况来看，当前广西猪价承压的首要原因，在于供应端的持续放量。9月广西养殖端生猪计 划出栏量环比增 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both the pig and egg industries is cautiously bearish [3][6] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the pattern of strong supply and weak demand in the pig market is difficult to change, but in the medium - to - long - term, attention should be paid to the reduction of production capacity and national policy changes. For the egg market, the large supply pressure makes the festival boost weak, and attention should be paid to the impact of cold - storage eggs entering the market on the spot market [2][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Pig Market Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the live hog 2511 contract yesterday was 13,315 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton or 0.64% from the previous trading day. Spot: In Henan, the price of external ternary live hogs was 13.48 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan/kg; in Jiangsu, it was 13.65 yuan/kg, down 0.11 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 13.15 yuan/kg, down 0.11 yuan/kg. The national average wholesale price of pork in agricultural product markets on September 10 was 19.91 yuan/kg, up 0.3% [1] Market Analysis - The weight - reducing slaughter of group farms has weakened the festival boost this year. The pig production capacity has remained at around 40.5 million heads for about a year, and with the improvement of production efficiency, there is room for capacity reduction in the future [2] Egg Market Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2510 contract yesterday was 3019 yuan/500 kg, down 41 yuan or 1.34% from the previous trading day. Spot: In Liaoning, the egg price was 3.27 yuan/jin, unchanged; in Shandong, it was 3.55 yuan/jin, up 0.10 yuan; in Hebei, it was 3.11 yuan/jin, unchanged. On September 10, the national production - link inventory was 0.48 days, and the circulation - link inventory was 0.79 days, both unchanged from the previous day [3][4] Market Analysis - High - temperature weather in mid - and early August led to cautious purchasing. Egg prices rose slightly in late August due to downstream stocking for the start of school. In September, school demand recovered, but tourism and catering demand declined. Food - processing demand was strong in mid - and early September but weakened in late September. Overall demand decreased over time [5]

Group 1 - The consumer price index (CPI) in August showed a year-on-year decline of 0.4%, primarily due to a high comparison base from the previous year and lower seasonal food price increases [1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.9% year-on-year, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth [1] - The producer price index (PPI) remained flat month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 2.9%, but the rate of decline narrowed by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] Group 2 - In August, pork prices in Beijing's Xinfadi wholesale market averaged 16.87 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 7.1% from July and 31.37% from the same period last year [3] - The decline in pork prices is attributed to a slight oversupply of live pigs and increased market supply, reaching a five-year high in daily average listings [3] - Seasonal fruits also experienced price declines due to an overlap in supply from summer fruits and new harvests of apples and pears [8] Group 3 - Industry experts predict that pork prices will stabilize in September due to factors such as school stocking and cooler weather, with prices expected to rise by only 1%-3% compared to August [5]

Core Viewpoint - Charoen Pokphand International (03839) has seen its stock price increase by over 570% year-to-date, with a recent rise of 8.79% to HKD 10.02, reflecting strong market performance and investor interest [1] Company Summary - Charoen Pokphand International is a subsidiary of Charoen Pokphand Group and is one of the world's leading producers of chlortetracycline [1] - The company reported a significant profit increase of 768.36% year-on-year in the first half of the year, primarily driven by substantial growth in its biochemical business, which focuses on animal health products and chlortetracycline [1] Industry Summary - The strategic partnership signed on August 28 between Muyuan Foods and Charoen Group in Bangkok is seen as a collaboration between the world's first and third largest pig farming giants, aiming for comprehensive cooperation in strategic planning, business integration, and global expansion [1] - The global veterinary chlortetracycline market is characterized by a duopoly, with China’s Jinhe Biology and Charoen Biological accounting for over 90% of global production capacity [1]

Group 1 - The wealth of Wang Ning, founder of Pop Mart, has surpassed that of Qin Yinglin and Qian Ying, making him the richest person in Henan Province with a net worth of $23 billion, ranking 96th globally [1] - Pop Mart reported a revenue of 13.88 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 204.4%, and an adjusted net profit of 4.71 billion yuan, up 362.8% [1] - The stock price of Pop Mart surged over 13% following the earnings report, reaching a historical high and a market capitalization exceeding 400 billion HKD [1] Group 2 - Chen Tian Shi, founder of Cambrian, has become the new richest person in Jiangxi Province with a net worth of $21.5 billion, ranking 106th globally, while the previous richest, Luo Yuhao, has a net worth of $4.3 billion [3] - Cambrian's stock price has risen significantly due to the boom in China's chip industry, reaching a market cap of 663.7 billion yuan, surpassing Kweichow Moutai [3] - Both Wang Ning and Chen Tian Shi are part of the emerging industries of new consumption and chips, attracting significant capital interest [3] Group 3 - Zhu Yi, the actual controller of Baili Tianheng, has seen his wealth increase significantly, with shares valued over 115 billion yuan, making him the richest person in Sichuan Province [4] - The stock price of Baili Tianheng has outperformed that of Tongwei and New Hope, which were previously led by the former richest in Sichuan [4] - In Shaanxi Province, the couple Fan Daidi and Yan Jianya of Juzhi Biotechnology have become the new richest, with a net worth of $5.1 billion, while the previous richest, Li Zhenguo and Li Xiyan, have a net worth of $3.5 billion [4]

Industry Overview - Pork concept stocks experienced a strong rally on the 11th, with Lihua Co. rising approximately 13%, reaching a nearly one-year high; Tiankang Biological and Muyuan Foods increased over 7%, while Wens Foodstuff and Shennong Group rose about 6% [1] - As of September 7, the national average price of live pigs was 13.64 yuan/kg, with prices fluctuating within a narrow range during the week [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Institutions indicate that the supply side is experiencing a temporary tightening due to reduced output from group farms at the beginning of the month; however, the goal of reducing weight at group farms has not yet been achieved, coupled with an increase in the inventory levels of standard pigs and large pigs, leading to persistent oversupply pressure [1] - Demand is not expected to improve significantly in the short term, suggesting a continued imbalance with strong supply and weak demand [1] Future Projections - An increase in pig production capacity is anticipated from May 2024, with a peak expected in the second half of 2025, alongside a rise in the number of newborn piglets in the first half of 2025 [1] - Supply pressure is expected to be significant in the second half of the year, particularly in the fourth quarter; however, under policy guidance, the decline in pork prices may be relatively moderated [1] Policy Implications - Zhongyou Securities notes that the government has repeatedly emphasized controlling production capacity, reducing weight, and limiting secondary breeding, aiming to guide the pork market towards "high-quality development," reflecting the government's determination to regulate pork production capacity and stabilize prices [1] - The supply of pigs in the second half of 2025 will be determined by production capacity from the second half of 2024 to the first half of 2025, with the effects of policies expected to manifest around the second half of 2026, potentially raising the price center of pork [1] Company Performance - There are significant cost differences among companies, with outstanding companies still able to achieve profitability; it is recommended to prioritize companies with cost advantages [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the strong performance of pork stocks in the early trading session on September 11, with notable gains observed in several companies [1][2] - Leading the gains, Lihua Co., Ltd. saw an increase of over 10% in its stock price [1] - Other companies in the pork sector, including Wens Foodstuff Group, Muyuan Foods, Shennong Group, Dongrui Co., Ltd., and Juxing Agriculture, also experienced upward movement in their stock prices [1]

生猪日报 | 2025-09-11 另存为PDF 【期价震荡调整】 【市场动态】 1、9月10日，生猪注册仓单428手； 2、短期现货继续下跌空间有限，关注接下来生猪继续降重幅度； 3、生猪主力合约（LH2511）今日减仓2241手，持仓约7.57万手，今日最高价 13400元/吨，最低价13210元/吨，收盘于13315元/吨。 【基本面分析】 1、能繁母猪存栏量看，3-12月生猪供应量有望逐月增加，但幅度有限。仔猪数 据看，2025年三四季度生猪出栏量整体震荡增加；需求端来看，下半年消费比 上半年好； 2、 从历史情况来看，肥标差或震荡走强； 3、市场多空逻辑： 空头：①养殖端降重缓慢且有难度，供应压力尚未完全释 放；②后续出栏量有望持续增加；③三季度尚未到消费旺季，需求对猪价的支 撑有限；多头：①养殖端已有所降重利好后市；②天气转凉后消费有望逐渐好 转；③后续出栏虽有增量但幅度有限。 【策略建议】 期货从业资格：F03086321 交易咨询资格：Z0019355 邮箱地址： shixy@hrrdqh.com 联系方式： 0371-69106756 1、观点：震荡调整； 2、核心逻辑： 1） 从母猪、仔猪 ...

从需求端来看，目前即将进入四季度的传统需求旺季。近期，气温下降、学校开学集中采购、"双节"备货需求增加等因素令生猪需求好 转，屠宰场开工率提高。通常来讲，屠宰利润越高意味着消费终端对高价猪肉的接受度越高，反之消费终端对高价猪肉的接受度较低。从 今年前三季度的屠宰利润走势来看，目前消费终端对高价猪肉的接受度较低。 图为生猪鲜冻品价差（单位：元／千克） 此外，虽然生猪市场供应宽松导致鲜品价格偏弱运行，鲜品和冻品价差处于历史低位，入库成本较低，但市场预期不乐观，因此冻品入库 需求有限，无法有效提振生猪需求。 2025年，生猪期货价格持续低位运行，即将到来的需求旺季能否提振市场信心？ 图为生猪期货价格走势（单位：元／吨） 从供应端来看，根据农业农村部数据，2025年7月末能繁母猪存栏量为4042万头，仍高于官方设定的3900万头的正常保有量，处于产能绿色 区间。能繁母猪存栏量自2024年5月起逐渐回升，按照商品猪出栏时间滞后10个月来推算，2025年3月生猪供应开始增长。目前，生猪市场 供应宽松格局并未改变，价格承压运行。 图为能繁母猪存栏量（单位：万头） 展望后市，供应方面，能繁母猪存栏量偏高导致供应宽松；需求方面 ...