1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - IMF's upward revision of the global economic growth forecast provides temporary support for the non - ferrous metals sector. However, the uncertainty of US tariffs and the expectation of weakening demand still suppress prices, while policy stimulus expectations and supply disruptions support prices. Attention should be paid to structural opportunities, such as short - term long positions in aluminum and tin at low prices and short positions in zinc ingots at high prices. For the long - term, short - selling opportunities at high prices can be considered for some varieties with supply surpluses or expected surpluses [1]. - Different non - ferrous metal varieties have different market trends. Copper is expected to fluctuate due to the approaching expiration date of reciprocal tariffs; alumina will continue to fluctuate widely; aluminum prices will fluctuate narrowly with a continuous inventory accumulation trend; aluminum alloy will fluctuate in a weak off - season atmosphere; zinc prices will fluctuate weakly; lead prices will fluctuate with stable cost support; nickel prices will fluctuate widely; stainless steel will fluctuate; and tin prices will fluctuate with inventory accumulation [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - **Viewpoint**: As the expiration date of reciprocal tariffs approaches, copper prices will fluctuate. - **Information Analysis**: The Chilean Finance Minister hopes that the 50% tariff on copper can be exempted. Trump plans to impose a 50% tariff on imported copper, and the new tariff may be implemented at the end of July or August 1st. In June, China's electrolytic copper production decreased slightly month - on - month but increased year - on - year. As of July 28th, copper inventory increased. On July 29th, the spot price of 1 electrolytic copper had an average premium of 110 yuan/ton over the 2508 contract [8]. - **Main Logic**: Macroscopically, investors are becoming more cautious as the tariff expiration date approaches, weakening the upward momentum of copper prices. The supply of raw materials is still tight, increasing the risk of smelter production cuts. The copper rod operating rate has declined, and inventory has increased. - **Outlook**: Copper supply constraints remain, and inventory is still low, but demand is weakening marginally. The implementation of US copper tariffs is not conducive to Shanghai copper prices, so copper is expected to show a fluctuating pattern [9]. 3.1.2 Alumina - **Viewpoint**: With a large - scale cancellation of warehouse receipts, alumina will continue to fluctuate widely. - **Information Analysis**: On July 29th, the spot price of alumina increased in various regions. The supply of Guinea's bauxite may tighten during the rainy season, but the overall market surplus pattern will suppress prices. On July 29th, the alumina warehouse receipts decreased by 4823 tons to 4208 tons [9][10]. - **Main Logic**: In the short term, the alumina market is dominated by anti - involution sentiment and low warehouse receipts. Fundamentally, smelter production capacity is increasing, and the market is in a surplus state with rising inventory. However, the large - scale cancellation of warehouse receipts and the low level of warehouse receipt inventory may support prices. - **Outlook**: In the short term, alumina is expected to maintain high - volatility and wide - range fluctuations. Attention should be paid to anti - involution sentiment and warehouse receipt issues [10][11]. 3.1.3 Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: With the continuous inventory accumulation trend, aluminum prices will fluctuate narrowly. - **Information Analysis**: On July 29th, the average price of SMM AOO aluminum decreased by 40 yuan/ton. As of July 28th, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods in the main consumption areas in China changed. On July 29th, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts decreased by 524 tons. Relevant policies for the stable growth of key industries are expected to be introduced. Hydro's Q2 production data shows a slight increase in aluminum production. The US has reached trade agreements with the EU, the Philippines, and other countries [11][12]. - **Main Logic**: In the short term, the approaching tariff deadline, a slight rebound in the US dollar, and the cooling of anti - involution policy expectations. The supply - side production capacity and operating rate are at a high level, while the demand - side off - season atmosphere is emerging, and the operating rate of primary processing is declining. Inventory is accumulating, and the spot basis is flat. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the consumption situation and inventory accumulation rhythm need to be observed, and prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. In the long term, there are concerns about consumption, and a short - selling strategy at high prices can be considered based on the premium and inventory inflection point [12]. 3.1.4 Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: In a strong off - season atmosphere, the market will fluctuate. - **Information Analysis**: On July 29th, the price of Baotai ADC12 remained unchanged. In June 2025, China's scrap aluminum imports decreased year - on - year. Thailand plans to implement carbon tax policies. An aluminum alloy project in Anhui started construction with a total investment of about 2 billion yuan [13]. - **Main Logic**: In the short term, ADC12 is in a game between strong cost support and weak demand. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, but the previous imports have increased, and the anti - involution sentiment has cooled, resulting in a marginal decline in scrap aluminum prices. The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy is low, and inventory is accumulating. The demand is in the off - season, and downstream enterprises purchase on a just - in - time basis. - **Outlook**: In the short term, ADC12 and the ADC12 - A00 spread will fluctuate at a low level, and the market will follow electrolytic aluminum. In the future, there is room for the spread to rise, and cross - variety arbitrage can be considered [13][15]. 3.1.5 Zinc - **Viewpoint**: With the cooling of anti - involution sentiment, zinc prices will fluctuate weakly. - **Information Analysis**: On July 29th, the spot price of zinc in different regions had different discounts to the main contract. As of July 29th, the inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions increased. The Xinjiang Huoshaoyun lead - zinc smelting project was put into production, with an annual zinc production capacity of 560,000 tons [15]. - **Main Logic**: Macroscopically, the anti - involution sentiment has cooled, but there are still expectations of domestic policy stimulus. The US dollar index has support, but its rebound is limited. The supply of zinc ore has become looser, and smelters' profitability is good, with strong production willingness. The demand is in the traditional off - season, and the overall demand expectation is average. - **Outlook**: In July, zinc ingot production will increase, and demand will weaken, leading to inventory accumulation. Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [16]. 3.1.6 Lead - **Viewpoint**: With stable cost support, lead prices will fluctuate. - **Information Analysis**: On July 29th, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged, and the price difference between primary and recycled lead was stable. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots remained unchanged, and the spot premium increased by 25 yuan. As of July 28th, lead ingot inventory increased slightly. The supply of primary lead is still tight, while the production of recycled lead has recovered [16][17]. - **Main Logic**: In the spot market, the spot discount has narrowed slightly, and the price difference between primary and recycled lead is stable. The price of waste batteries is stable, and the operating rate of recycled lead smelters has increased. The production capacity of primary lead smelters has not fully recovered, and the weekly production of lead ingots has increased slightly. The demand is in the transition period from the off - season to the peak season, and the operating rate of lead - acid battery factories has increased [17][18]. - **Outlook**: Although the US reciprocal tariff suspension period has been postponed to August 1st, the announced tariff is high, causing macro - level fluctuations. As demand transitions from the off - season to the peak season, the battery factory operating rate has recovered. The supply of lead ingots may continue to increase slightly this week. The cost of recycled lead is supported at a high level, so lead prices are expected to fluctuate [18]. 3.1.7 Nickel - **Viewpoint**: With fluctuating market sentiment, nickel prices will fluctuate widely. - **Information Analysis**: On July 29th, LME nickel inventory increased, and Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts decreased. Indonesia plans to invest in the nickel downstream industry, and some companies have adjusted their production forecasts. Vale Indonesia plans to raise funds for nickel projects. The Indonesian Nickel Mining Association proposes to revise the HPM formula, and the Indonesian government will implement a new RKAB system. The export volume of the Philippines to Indonesia is expected to increase [18][19][20]. - **Main Logic**: Currently, market sentiment dominates the market, and the static valuation of the market is stable. The industrial fundamentals are weakening marginally. After the rainy season, the supply of raw materials may be looser. The production of intermediate products has recovered, and the price of nickel salts has declined slightly. The inventory of electrolytic nickel is accumulating, and the upward pressure is significant. - **Outlook**: In the short term, nickel prices will fluctuate widely, and in the long term, they will face downward pressure [22]. 3.1.8 Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: With the cooling of sentiment, the stainless - steel market will fluctuate. - **Information Analysis**: The stainless - steel futures warehouse receipt inventory remained unchanged. SMM expects the HPM of Indonesian domestic trade ore to rise slightly in the first half of August. The spot price of 304 stainless steel in Foshan had a discount to the main contract. The average price of high - nickel pig iron remained unchanged [23][25]. - **Main Logic**: The price of nickel iron has stopped falling and rebounded, and the price of chrome iron is stable. Due to the traditional consumption off - season, the improvement in spot trading volume is limited. In June, stainless - steel production decreased month - on - month but remained at a high level, and there is a risk of weakening apparent demand. Last week, social inventory and warehouse receipts decreased, alleviating the structural surplus pressure. - **Outlook**: The overall sentiment in the commodity sector has cooled. Attention should be paid to the possibility of increased production cuts by steel mills due to long - term profit compression and policy expectations. In the short term, stainless - steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to inventory changes and cost - side changes [24]. 3.1.9 Tin - **Viewpoint**: With inventory accumulation in both markets, tin prices will fluctuate. - **Information Analysis**: On July 29th, LME tin warehouse receipt inventory increased by 35 tons to 1855 tons, and Shanghai tin warehouse receipt inventory increased by 160 tons to 7529 tons. The trading volume decreased by 2289 lots to 52135 lots. The average spot price of 1 tin ingots decreased by 2700 yuan/ton to 266100 yuan/ton [24]. - **Main Logic**: After the mining license is issued, tin ore production is expected to gradually increase, but the tight supply situation in China will not change in the short term. The supply - demand fundamentals provide strong support for tin prices. However, the terminal demand for tin has weakened marginally in the second half of the year, limiting the upward momentum of tin prices. - **Outlook**: With the tight supply of tin ore, tin prices have bottom support and are expected to fluctuate. In August, the volatility of tin prices may increase due to possible changes in macro, capital, and supply - demand factors [26]. 3.2行情监测 The report does not provide specific content for this part.

Report Information - Report Date: July 30, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The "anti-involution" logic has cooled down, and aluminum industry chain varieties have entered a shock consolidation phase. Shanghai Aluminum 2509 has a narrow range, closing down 0.22% at 20,605. The total open interest of the index has decreased by 12,072 to 615,012 lots, and the 08-09 premium is reported at 40; the AD-AL negative spread is reported at -510. Alumina has stopped falling, rising 1.01% to 3,307 compared to the previous day [8]. - Bauxite supply remains loose, and the impact of the rainy season in Guinea and mine rights suspension is expected to gradually appear in August. The ore price has stopped falling and recovered. The alumina futures-spot arbitrage window remains open, and the demand for delivery products supports the spot price. However, the short-term anti-involution trading has temporarily cooled down, and alumina is adjusting at a high level [8]. - In the cast aluminum sector, it is currently the off-season for the automotive industry. Demand has weakened, and the supply of scrap aluminum is short. Under the double weakness of supply and demand, cast aluminum continues to fluctuate in a range following Shanghai Aluminum, and the AD-AL maintains a low negative spread structure [8]. - At the electrolytic aluminum end, the domestic operating capacity remains at a high level, and the demand side in the off-season continues to be sluggish. The operating rate in the aluminum processing sector remains light. The absolute high price suppresses terminal consumption, while the aluminum smelting profit is high. One can appropriately participate in shorting at high levels [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Shanghai Aluminum 2509 closed down 0.22% at 20,605, with the index total open interest decreasing by 12,072 to 615,012 lots, and the 08-09 premium at 40; the AD-AL negative spread was -510. Alumina rose 1.01% to 3,307 [8]. - Bauxite supply is loose, and the impact of the rainy season in Guinea and mine rights suspension will gradually appear in August. The alumina futures-spot arbitrage window is open, but short-term anti-involution trading has cooled down [8]. - In the cast aluminum sector, it is the off-season for the automotive industry, with weak demand and short scrap aluminum supply. Cast aluminum follows Shanghai Aluminum in a range, and the AD-AL maintains a low negative spread [8]. - Domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is high, demand is sluggish in the off-season, and the operating rate in the aluminum processing sector is light. High prices suppress consumption, while smelting profit is high, and one can short at high levels [8]. 2. Industry News - Ghana has canceled a $1.2 billion bauxite agreement with Rocksure International and is seeking cooperation with a large overseas company. Ghana has about 900 million tons of bauxite, and the canceled agreement covered a mine with about 376 million tons of bauxite [9]. - In June 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were about 192,400 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 13.8% and a year-on-year increase of 58.7%. From January to June, the cumulative import volume was about 1.2499 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%. In June, exports were about 19,600 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 39.5% and a year-on-year increase of 179.4%. From January to June, the cumulative export volume was about 86,600 tons, a year-on-year increase of about 206.6%. In June, the net import was 172,700 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 9.4% and a year-on-year increase of 51.3%. From January to June, the cumulative net import was about 1.1633 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3% [10]. - Guinea has revoked the exploration and mining licenses of 45 mining companies, including six bauxite enterprises. These are long-idle mine rights, and the government aims to improve the transparency and standardization of mineral resource management [10]. - Alcoa expects its San Ciprián aluminum smelter in Spain to restart in mid-2026, with an expected loss of up to $110 million. The restart was postponed due to a nationwide power outage in April, and it has now resumed after consultations with the government [10].

Group 1 - The establishment of China Chang'an Automobile Group focuses on the automotive industry, aiming to develop intelligent automotive robots and embodied intelligence, with 117 subsidiaries including 5 listed companies [1] - Mergers and acquisitions (M&A) have become a significant method for both state-owned and private enterprises to optimize resource allocation, with notable examples including China Shipbuilding's merger with China Heavy Industry and Guotai Junan's merger with Haitong Securities [1] - The Chinese economy is transitioning from asset scale emphasis to innovation-driven high-quality development, prompting companies to adopt M&A strategies to optimize resource allocation and accelerate industrial transformation [1] Group 2 - In the first half of 2025, the Chinese M&A market completed 1,397 transactions, a year-on-year increase of 10.09%, with disclosed amounts totaling 888.70 billion USD, up 31.07% [2] - M&A activities are primarily focused on integrating upstream and downstream industries, enhancing business collaboration, particularly in sectors like electronic information, healthcare, finance, and manufacturing [2] - Examples of successful M&A include Haiguang Information's merger with Zhongke Shuguang, achieving full-chain integration from domestic architecture CPU to high-end computing and storage [2] Group 3 - Traditional enterprises lacking high-tech capabilities are increasingly turning to M&A as a pathway for industrial transformation, with local policies supporting investments in artificial intelligence, low-altitude economy, biomedicine, new materials, and high-end equipment [3] - Local state-owned enterprises are becoming key players in the M&A market, with 13 transactions involving private or individual entities transitioning to state-owned transactions in various industries [3][4] - The role of local governments has shifted from merely "shell protection" to actively promoting industrial transformation and resource integration, fostering regional industrial clusters [4] Group 4 - M&A is viewed as a crucial method to combat "involution," enhance industrial efficiency, and achieve economies of scale, thereby facilitating market clearing and promoting the "Matthew Effect" [4] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has introduced policies to support M&A, which, along with local measures, is expected to enhance the value of listed companies and drive industrial upgrades [4]

第六届全国非公有制经济人士优秀中国特色社会主义事业建设者表彰大会7月29日在北京召开，100名非 公有制经济人士和新的社会阶层人士获得"优秀中国特色社会主义事业建设者"称号。其中，山东5人获 此荣誉，分别是山东魏桥创业集团董事长张波，山东东明石化集团有限公司党委书记、董事局主席李湘 平，青岛蔚蓝生物集团有限公司董事长、总裁陈刚，临沂市兰山区禾力商贸工作室负责人徐军，山东国 曜琴岛律师事务所首席合伙人李连祥。 民营经济撑起了山东经济发展的"半壁江山"。全省非公有制经济人士和新的社会阶层人士坚定理想信 念、勇担时代重任、推动高质量发展、积极履行社会责任，为山东经济社会发展作出了积极贡献。 李连祥带领国曜琴岛律师事务所的800多名律师及工作人员，热忱服务企业、回馈社会，开展多项社会 公益活动，积极践行社会责任。（记者 魏然） 作为山东民企领跑者魏桥创业集团的掌舵人，张波秉持"为国创业、为民造福"初心，带领企业绿色转 型，推动数智化改革和科技创新，打造了中国最大的全流程汽车轻量化研发制造基地，使魏桥成为全球 唯一具备铝全产业链、整车制造与回收的企业，连续十余年入选世界500强。 李湘平坚持创新驱动、绿色转型，主导突破 ...

Core Points - The U.S. Secretary of Commerce, Howard Lutnick, discussed U.S.-EU trade agreements with EU officials, highlighting that digital services tax and perceived attacks on U.S. tech companies will be key topics in future negotiations [1] - Steel and aluminum, which were not included in the initial agreement, will also be part of the discussions [1] - The pharmaceutical and automotive industries are identified as critical sectors for reaching a trade agreement with the EU, with significant tariffs expected if pharmaceuticals are not produced in the U.S. [1] - Trump is expected to announce his pharmaceutical policy within the next two weeks [1]

Group 1 - The establishment of China Chang'an Automobile Group focuses on the automotive industry, aiming to develop intelligent automotive robots and embodied intelligence, with 117 subsidiaries including 5 listed companies [1] - Mergers and acquisitions (M&A) have become a significant method for both state-owned and private enterprises to optimize resource allocation, with notable examples including China Shipbuilding's merger with China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation and Guotai Junan's merger with Haitong Securities [1] - The Chinese economy is transitioning from scale-driven growth to innovation-driven high-quality development, prompting enterprises to adopt M&A strategies to optimize resource allocation and accelerate industrial transformation [1] Group 2 - In the first half of 2025, the Chinese M&A market completed 1,397 transactions, a year-on-year increase of 10.09%, with disclosed transaction amounts totaling $88.87 billion, up 31.07% [2] - M&A activities are primarily focused on integrating upstream and downstream industries, enhancing business collaboration, particularly in sectors like electronic information, healthcare, finance, and manufacturing [2] - Examples of successful M&A include Haiguang Information's merger with Zhongke Shuguang, achieving full-chain integration in high-end computing and storage, and Jiaozuo Wanfang's acquisition of Cayman Aluminum to form a complete aluminum material industry chain [2] Group 3 - Some traditional enterprises are pursuing cross-border M&A to achieve industrial transformation, especially in sectors lacking high-tech capabilities [3] - Local state-owned enterprises are becoming key players in the M&A market, with 13 transactions involving private or individual enterprises transitioning to state-owned transactions in the first half of 2025 [3] - Local governments are now significant forces in promoting industrial transformation, enabling deep resource integration and the creation of regional industrial clusters or industry leaders [3] Group 4 - M&A is viewed as an effective means to alleviate overcapacity, enhance industrial efficiency, and achieve economies of scale, promoting market competition and resource allocation efficiency [4] - Recent policies from the China Securities Regulatory Commission aim to facilitate M&A activities, with local governments also announcing supportive measures, enhancing the role of the capital market in M&A [4] - The focus on M&A is expected to improve the value of listed companies, drive industrial upgrades, and support the development of new productive forces [4]

Core Viewpoint - Tianshan Aluminum (002532) announced that the company has no overdue guarantees, no guarantees involved in lawsuits, and has not incurred losses due to being ruled against in any guarantee case [1] Summary by Categories - **Company Status** - Tianshan Aluminum confirmed the absence of overdue guarantees [1] - The company is not involved in any lawsuits related to guarantees [1] - There have been no losses incurred from guarantees due to adverse judgments [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper market is in a state of weak supply and demand, with short - term prices under pressure and in a volatile state. The aluminum market is affected by macro - economic factors and fundamentals, with short - term price pressure. The zinc market has sufficient supply in the medium - to - long term and weak consumption, with prices under pressure. The lead market has cost support, and the prices have a certain bottom - line. The nickel market has limited driving forces for prices and maintains a volatile state. The stainless steel market is affected by macro - expectations and cost factors, with short - term prices returning to the volatile range. The tin market is affected by supply and demand, with short - term prices following market sentiment. The industrial silicon market is expected to be weak in the medium - to - long term, and the short - term may have a rebound. The polycrystalline silicon market may have a short - term correction and then be involved in the market with a long - position and protective put option strategy. The lithium carbonate market has high short - term speculative sentiment and high uncertainty, and investors are advised to wait for policy implementation [7][23][39][44][49][56][64][70][75][81]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai copper 2509 contract closed at 78,840 yuan/ton, down 0.18%, and the Shanghai copper index reduced its position by 2,049 lots to 496,800 lots. The spot premium of Shanghai copper was firm, and the spot premium in North China increased slightly [2]. - **Important Information**: The bonded - area copper inventory in Shanghai and Guangdong continued to increase. Teck Resource's copper production in Q2 2025 decreased year - on - year, and its annual production guidance was lowered. The production schedule of white - goods in August decreased compared to the same period last year [3][4]. - **Logic Analysis**: The impact of reciprocal tariffs may be relatively mild. The domestic smelters maintain high production, and the market is mainly disturbed by the expectation of copper tariffs. The inventory has increased, and the downstream procurement has slightly increased [5][7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The spot supply and demand are weak, and it is under pressure and volatile in the short term [7]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The alumina 2509 contract rose 33 yuan to 3,307 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 7,296 lots to 359,400 lots. The spot prices in various regions increased [9]. - **Related Information**: Some alumina enterprises did not receive environmental - control notices. The replacement projects of large - scale alumina enterprises in Shandong were put into production, and the roasting project in Gansu was about to produce. The alumina plant in Guinea had a strike [10][11]. - **Logic Analysis**: After the reduction of positions and decline, it stabilized in the short term. The operating capacity increased, and the theoretical surplus expanded. The inventory has been increasing, and attention should be paid to the changes in warehouse receipts [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: The low warehouse receipts may drive the price to rebound. Temporarily wait and see for arbitrage and options [15][16]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai aluminum 2509 contract fell 45 yuan/ton to 20,605 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 12,072 lots. The spot prices in various regions decreased [18]. - **Related Information**: The inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased, and the warehouse receipts decreased. Sino - US economic and trade talks were held, and the price law was being revised. Huafeng Aluminum planned to purchase aluminum products [19][20][22]. - **Trading Logic**: The LME aluminum price fluctuated and then declined. The domestic market should pay attention to policy expectations. The inventory of aluminum ingots is expected to increase, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of the widening of the monthly spread [23]. - **Trading Strategy**: The aluminum price is under pressure in the short term. Enter the long - spread position of 09 - 12 contracts after the spread converges due to inventory accumulation. Temporarily wait and see for options [24]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The cast aluminum alloy 2511 contract fell 15 yuan to 20,020 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 246 lots. The spot prices in various regions remained unchanged [26]. - **Related Information**: The production of cast aluminum alloy decreased, and the price law was being revised [26][27]. - **Trading Logic**: The supply is restricted by the shortage of scrap - aluminum sources, and the demand is affected by different orders. The futures price is mainly affected by the cost following the aluminum price [30]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is under pressure following the aluminum price. Consider the cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunity when the spot discount to the futures is more than 300 yuan. Temporarily wait and see for options [31][32]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai zinc 2509 fell 0.35% to 22,655 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 6,419 lots. The spot trading was average, and the premium was basically stable [34]. - **Related Information**: Heavy rainfall in North China did not affect the production and transportation of galvanized plants. The zinc concentrate production of some mines increased [35][36]. - **Logic Analysis**: The zinc concentrate market is stable, and the port inventory has decreased. The domestic refined zinc production may increase. The consumption is in the off - season, and the downstream procurement is weak [37][39]. - **Trading Strategy**: Profitable short - positions can continue to be held, and attention should be paid to setting stop - profit points. Buy put options. Temporarily wait and see for options [40][41]. Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai lead 2509 fell 0.24% to 16,900 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 5,605 lots. The spot price was stable, and the downstream purchasing willingness improved slightly [42]. - **Related Information**: Heavy rainfall affected the raw - material transportation of recycled lead smelters [43]. - **Logic Analysis**: The lead price has cost support, and the production of primary and recycled lead is affected. The terminal consumption of lead - acid batteries has improved slightly [44]. - **Trading Strategy**: Profitable long - positions can continue to be held, and attention should be paid to macro - risks. Sell put options. Temporarily wait and see for options [45][47]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel NI2509 fell 1,040 to 121,800 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 3,705 lots. The premiums of different brands of nickel changed [48]. - **Related Information**: The Fed may continue to cut interest rates. A large - scale nickel project in Southeast Sulawesi is expected to start in Q4 2025 [49]. - **Logic Analysis**: The commodity atmosphere has weakened, and the nickel price has a limited decline. The supply and demand are weak in July and August, and the price lacks driving forces [49]. - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term price follows the macro - atmosphere. Temporarily wait and see for arbitrage. Sell deep - out - of - the - money put options [50][52]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2509 contract fell 15 to 12,920 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 8,224 lots. The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled products were given [54]. - **Related Information**: The Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project will drive the demand for stainless steel. A stainless - steel project of Guangqing Metal Technology is expected to be put into production in 2026 [55][56]. - **Logic Analysis**: The speculative atmosphere has cooled down. The external demand is restricted, and the internal demand is in the off - season. The cost has an impact on the price, and the market pays attention to macro - expectations [56]. - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term price returns to the volatile range. Temporarily wait and see for arbitrage [57][58]. Tin - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai tin 2509 closed at 266,660 yuan/ton, down 0.76%, and the position decreased by 2,289 lots. The spot price decreased, and the trading was restricted [60]. - **Related Information**: Sino - US economic and trade talks were held, and a national industrial - information conference was convened [61]. - **Logic Analysis**: The LME inventory increased slightly. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is weak in the off - season. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Myanmar and consumption recovery signals [62][64]. - **Trading Strategy**: The tin price follows the market sentiment. Temporarily wait and see for options [65][66]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The main contract of industrial silicon opened high and closed at 9,350 yuan/ton. The spot prices generally weakened [67][68]. - **Related Information**: It is rumored that an anti - involution meeting will be held in August [69]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The supply has increased, and the demand of some downstream products has changed. The social inventory has decreased. The price may decline in the medium - to - long term [70]. - **Strategy**: The short - term price may rebound, and it is weak in the medium - to - long term. Hold the previous protective put options. Participate in the reverse - spread of 11 and 12 contracts, the cash - and - carry arbitrage of 11 and 10 contracts, and the butterfly spread strategy [71]. Polycrystalline Silicon - **Market Review**: The main contract of polycrystalline silicon futures rose sharply and closed at 50,805 yuan/ton. The spot prices of different types of polycrystalline silicon were given [73]. - **Related Information**: The price of photovoltaic silicon wafers continued to rise [74]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The short - term "anti - involution" sentiment has declined, and the price may have a correction. The capacity integration is imperative, and the silicon - wafer price adjustment is completed [75]. - **Strategy**: The short - term price may have a correction, and then participate in the market with a long - position and protective put option strategy. Hold the long - polycrystalline - silicon and short - industrial - silicon position for a long time and conduct the reverse - spread of far - month contracts of polycrystalline silicon [76]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2509 contract fell 4,440 to 70,840 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 78,853 lots. The spot prices decreased [77]. - **Important Information**: The sales of new - energy vehicles in the world increased in H1 2025, and China had a high share [78]. - **Logic Analysis**: The situation of the ore end is uncertain, and the price may test the support at 65,000 [81]. - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term speculative sentiment is strong, and the fundamentals are uncertain. It is recommended to wait and see. Enterprises with long - term contracts can consider cash - and - carry arbitrage. Temporarily wait and see for options [82][84].

Group 1 - The Gansu Provincial Strong Industrial Action Leading Group Office recently recognized companies and municipalities that contributed significantly to achieving the "double over half" goal for the first half of 2025 [1] - Four companies from Honggu District, including Lanzhou Aluminum, Fangda Carbon, Ronghe Coal, and Xikaisheng, were highlighted for their outstanding performance, contributing to the high-quality development of the industrial economy in the region [1] - These companies have actively responded to market challenges, ramped up production, expanded markets, promoted investment, and strengthened innovation, supporting the steady growth of key industrial economic indicators in Honggu District and the province [1] Group 2 - The recognition aims to set examples and motivate advancements within the industrial sector, fostering a competitive and progressive atmosphere across the province [2] - Honggu District plans to leverage this recognition to continuously optimize the business environment, enhance resource support, and assist key enterprises in growing stronger [2] - The district encourages all industrial companies to focus on annual goals, maintain development confidence, tackle challenges, and improve production organization and project construction to contribute to the overall industrial economic growth [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Unilateral: Aluminum: Neutral; Alumina: Neutral; Aluminum Alloy: Neutral [6] - Arbitrage: SHFE Aluminum Positive Spread, Long AD11 and Short AL11 [6] Group 2: Core Views - For electrolytic aluminum, last week's lack of upward price elasticity was due to the consumption off - season and inventory accumulation. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's plan has no impact on the supply side, but policy support for the consumption side should be watched. There is a risk of a squeeze in the 08 contract, and the long - term logic is supply constraints and expected consumption growth [3]. - For alumina, the spot market shows that the actual ex - factory price has declined despite higher tender prices. Supply is increasing due to profit incentives, with continued inventory accumulation. There are issues with warehouse receipts, and the speed of registering warehouse receipts needs further observation [3][4]. - For aluminum alloy, it is in the consumption off - season, with prices following aluminum. Tight scrap and primary aluminum supply support prices, and there are cross - variety arbitrage opportunities in the 11 - contract [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminum Spot and Futures - Aluminum spot: On July 28, 2025, the Yangtze River A00 aluminum price was 20,660 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the Central Plains A00 aluminum price was 20,470 yuan/ton; the Foshan A00 aluminum price was 20,650 yuan/ton [1]. - Aluminum futures: On July 28, 2025, the SHFE aluminum main contract opened at 20,765 yuan/ton, closed at 20,615 yuan/ton, down 135 yuan/ton (-0.65%) from the previous trading day. Trading volume was 188,322 lots, up 44,751 lots, and positions were 285,172 lots, down 16,798 lots [1]. - Aluminum inventory: As of July 28, 2025, domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory was 533,000 tons, and LME aluminum inventory was 454,275 tons, up 3,450 tons from the previous day [1]. Alumina Spot and Futures - Alumina spot: On July 28, 2025, SMM alumina prices were 3,240 yuan/ton in Shanxi, 3,220 yuan/ton in Shandong, 3,300 yuan/ton in Guangxi, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 380 US dollars/ton [2]. - Alumina futures: On July 28, 2025, the alumina main contract opened at 3,404 yuan/ton, closed at 3,243 yuan/ton, down 217 yuan/ton (-6.27%) from the previous trading day. Trading volume was 1,003,218 lots, up 98,197 lots, and positions were 170,310 lots, down 22,776 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Inventory - Aluminum alloy price: On July 28, 2025, the Baotai civil primary aluminum purchase price was 15,100 yuan/ton, the mechanical primary aluminum purchase price was 15,300 yuan/ton, and the ADC12 Baotai quote was 19,600 yuan/ton, all unchanged from the previous day. The ADC12 - A00 spread in East China was - 960 yuan/ton [2]. - Aluminum alloy inventory: The aluminum alloy social inventory was 43,200 tons, up 6,000 tons week - on - week; the in - factory inventory was 63,600 tons, down 300 tons week - on - week; the total inventory was 106,800 tons, up 5,700 tons week - on - week [2].