文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 报告摘要 3 月工业企业利润数据：利润增速转正 3 月，根据统计局数据，规模以上工业企业利润同比增长 2.5% ，前值为 -0.3% 。库存方面，截止至今年 3 月，库存同比 4.2% ，前值为 4.2% 。 量、价、利润率拆分来看 ， 量增价落，收入增速回升，利润率弱于去年同期。 PPI 同比， 3 月同比为 -2.5% ， 2 月为 -2.2% 。工业增加值 3 月增速为 7.7% ， 1-2 月为 5.9% ；收入端 3 月增速为 4.42% ， 1- 2 月为 2.8% 。利润率方面， 3 月为 4.97% ，去年同期（可比口径）为 5.06% 。利润率拆分来看， 3 月毛 利率为 14.2% ，去年同期为 14.5% ；费用率 8.21% ，去年同期为 8.41% ；其他损益收入比为 1.0% ，去 年同期为 0.92% 。 分行业来看 ， 3 月，采矿业增速为 -26.03% ，前值为 -25.2% ；制造业增速为 11.9% ，前值为 4.8% ；电 热气水 ...

Core Viewpoint - The industrial enterprises' profits showed a slight decline in January-February, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, compared to a decline of 3.3% for the entire previous year [1][18]. Summary by Sections Industrial Profit Data - In January-February, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, while the inventory increased by 4.2% compared to the previous year [1][18]. - The profit margin for January-February was 4.53%, slightly lower than the 4.67% in the same period last year [19]. Industry Performance - The mining industry experienced a significant decline with a growth rate of -25.2%, while manufacturing saw a recovery with a growth rate of 4.8% [2][23]. - Notable growth in manufacturing sectors included agricultural and sideline food processing (37.8%), non-ferrous metal processing (20.5%), and transportation equipment (88.8%) [2][23]. Revenue Analysis - The revenue of industrial enterprises increased by 2.8% year-on-year in January-February, with the midstream sector showing strong performance at 8.1% growth [3][7]. - The upstream manufacturing sector's revenue growth was only 0.73%, while downstream manufacturing grew by 1.67% [3][7]. Factors Influencing Performance - Three main factors contributed to the revenue growth: strong export performance, new policies promoting equipment updates, and advancements in "hard technology" [4][10]. - The export delivery value of the equipment manufacturing industry grew by 7.23% in January-February, with significant contributions from sectors like railways and aerospace [4][10]. Future Outlook - The main uncertainty for the midstream equipment manufacturing sector comes from export dependency, which is at 21.1% for 2024 [15]. - Despite the uncertainties, the expected revenue growth for the equipment manufacturing sector is anticipated to be better than last year due to substantial domestic policy support and increased capital expenditure in "hard technology" [15].