Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI in July decreased by 0.4 points to 49.3, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector, while the overall economic sentiment showed slight improvement with an increase in the number of expanding industries from 6 to 7, suggesting that economic conditions are influenced by both quantity and price factors [1][5][6]. Group 1: Industry Performance - In July, industries showing improvement were primarily in two categories: midstream equipment manufacturing and certain raw material sectors, including general and specialized equipment, electrical machinery, and metal products, likely linked to the release of the 2025 "Two Heavy" construction projects and central budget investments [7][10]. - The producer price index for black metals, non-ferrous metals, and non-metallic minerals increased by 80.1, 13.4, and 12.7 points respectively in July, reflecting a positive price trend in these sectors [7][8]. - The number of industries in the expansion zone increased to 7, with notable improvements in specialized equipment (up 1.6 points), general equipment (up 14.8 points), and electrical machinery (up 1.9 points) [7][10]. Group 2: Declining Industries - The industries experiencing significant downturns included durable consumer goods related to "trade-in" programs, export-dependent sectors, and the petrochemical industry, with automotive and computer communication electronics seeing declines of 7.0 and 3.7 points respectively [10][11]. - Export orders for automotive, textiles, and chemical industries showed notable declines, with the automotive sector's export orders dropping by 10.6 points [11][10]. - The petrochemical sector's sentiment decreased by 9.8 points in July, correlating with a drop in international crude oil prices after a peak in mid-June [10][11]. Group 3: Emerging Industries - The new materials industry has maintained a leading sentiment for three consecutive months, with a 0.4 point increase in July, remaining above the 50 mark, indicating robust growth driven by connections to upstream sectors like new energy and robotics [17][18]. - High-end equipment manufacturing and energy-saving industries showed resilience, remaining above seasonal averages, while the biotechnology and new energy vehicle sectors experienced declines [17][18]. - The sentiment in the new materials sector is supported by rapid internal growth and large-scale equipment updates, while the new energy vehicle sector faces production constraints due to industry "anti-involution" policies [17][18]. Group 4: Construction and Service Industries - In July, the construction sector saw a decline in outdoor construction activities due to adverse weather conditions, with residential construction sentiment dropping by 4.7 points, which is greater than the seasonal average decline [18][20]. - The service sector's operating conditions slightly decreased by 0.1 points in July, with high sentiment in travel-related industries such as aviation and dining, which saw significant increases [23][24]. - The overall service sector sentiment remains relatively high, with cultural and sports entertainment sectors exceeding 60 points, indicating a vibrant market [23][24].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights that industrial profits in April showed a faster growth rate, primarily driven by volume improvements despite weak pricing pressures [1][16]. Summary by Sections Overall Industrial Performance - In April, the profits of large-scale industrial enterprises increased by 3.0% year-on-year, accelerating by 0.4 percentage points compared to March [16]. - Inventory levels as of April showed a year-on-year increase of 3.9%, down from 4.2% previously [16]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in April was -2.7%, slightly worse than March's -2.5% [16]. - The industrial added value growth rate in April was 6.1%, down from 7.7% in March [16]. - Revenue growth in April was 2.64%, a decrease from 4.42% in March [16]. - Profit margins in April were 5.38%, slightly up from 5.36% in the same month last year [16]. Sector Analysis - In April, the mining sector experienced a profit decline of -30.77%, worsening from -26.03% [19]. - The manufacturing sector's profit growth was 10.96%, down from 11.92% [19]. - The electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply sector saw a profit increase of 1.49%, improving from -6.13% [19]. - Within manufacturing, upstream sectors saw a decline of -4.27%, while midstream sectors grew by 21.23%, up from 7.64% [19]. Profit Insights - The profit growth in the industrial sector for the first four months of the year was 1.4%, an improvement from a -3.3% decline for the entire previous year [4]. - The increase in profits was primarily attributed to volume growth, with industrial output growth reaching 6.4% [4]. - The cumulative PPI for the first four months was -2.4%, contributing to a slight decline in both gross and profit margins [4]. - The gross margin for the first four months was 14.5%, down from 14.7% year-on-year, while the profit margin was 4.9%, down from 5.0% [4]. Midstream Equipment Manufacturing - The midstream equipment manufacturing sector had the highest profit growth among five major sectors, with a 11.2% increase in profits for the first four months, contributing 3.6 percentage points to overall industrial profit growth [5]. - Seven out of eight industries in midstream equipment manufacturing saw profit growth exceeding 10%, with the transportation equipment sector leading at 59.2% [5]. - The average added value growth for eight midstream industries was 10.8%, although seven of these industries experienced negative PPI [5]. - The overall revenue growth for midstream equipment manufacturing was 8.5%, with three industries exceeding 10% growth [5].

广发证券 资深宏观分析师 王丹 bjwangdan@ gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 摘要 第一， 4月制造业PMI环比下行1.5个点至49.0，环比降幅明显大于2014年以来季节性均值的0.8个点。中观景气面同步放缓，位于扩张区间的行业个数由前值 的8个减少至5个。前期公布的EPMI、BCI指数和PMI指向一致，可以相互印证，显示外需的影响在初步形成。 第二， 从分项指标看，从出口订单向生产、价格、就业的传递链条较为清晰。（1）出口订单环比下行4.3个点至44.7，绝对景气水平为过去10年仅好于2020 和2022年4月的偏低水平，显示了关税落地对外需的影响；（2）企业生产量指标4月环比下降2.8个点，且代表企业未来生产意愿的采购指标环比下降5.5个 点，是所有分项指标中环比降幅最大的，显示了企业在外部冲击下主动调整当期和未来生产的表现；（3）购进和出厂价格环比分别下降2.8和3.1个点，尤其是 出厂价格环比降幅创下过去8个月新低，3月PPI环比已经下降0.4个点的背景下，输入性价格下跌过程尚未结束；（4）雇员指标环比下降0.3个点，这一指标已 经环比连续2个月放缓。 第三， 哪些行业相对来说受影响较 ...