1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Zinc: The Shanghai zinc futures continue to rebound. - Lead: Supported by the cost of recycled lead and with signs of demand recovery, the lead price is clearly supported. Attention should be paid to the resistance level at 17,500 [61]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Multi - Empty Focus 3.1.1. Zinc - Bullish factors: The US index is expected to decline, and there are disturbances in the supply side overseas. - Bearish factors: Zinc ingot inventory has a slight increase [7]. 3.1.2. Lead - Bullish factors: There is a regional shortage in the supply of recycled lead, the price of waste batteries has increased, and social inventory has decreased. - Bearish factors: Consumption has not significantly recovered [10]. 3.2. Data Analysis 3.2.1. Zinc - **Import of zinc ore concentrates**: In May 2025, China's import volume of zinc ore concentrates was 491,522.01 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.64% and a year - on - year increase of 85.28%. The supply from major countries decreased, but other countries increased their supply, resulting in the May import volume being basically the same as that of the previous month. Recently, the import zinc ore processing fee has been rebounding, and there is an expectation of a marginal loosening of the ore supply [12]. - **Processing fees**: In June, the average domestic zinc concentrate TC increased by 150 yuan/metal ton month - on - month to 3,650 yuan/metal ton, and the average imported ore TC increased by 10 dollars/dry ton month - on - month to 55 dollars/dry ton. The short - term weekly processing fees were relatively stable. The CZSPT released the guidance price range for the US dollar processing fee for imported zinc concentrates before the end of the third quarter of 2025: 80 dollars (average) - 100 dollars (average)/dry ton [15]. - **Zinc concentrate prices**: The price of 50% zinc concentrate in Hechi increased by 210 yuan/ton to 17,060 yuan/ton compared with last week; the price of 50% zinc concentrate in Chenzhou increased by 240 yuan/ton to 17,150 yuan/ton [20]. - **Zinc production**: In May 2025, China's zinc production was 583,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%. In June, there were both new capacity releases and production resumptions, as well as some production cuts due to maintenance [23]. - **Refined zinc import**: In May 2025, China's refined zinc import volume was 26,716.511 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.36% and a year - on - year decrease of 39.85%. Kazakhstan was the largest supplier, and Australia was the second - largest supplier [26]. - **Automobile market**: In May, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.27 million and 1.307 million respectively, with year - on - year growth of 35% and 36.9% respectively. The new energy vehicle sales accounted for 48.7% of the total vehicle sales, reaching a new high. In May, China's total vehicle exports were 551,000, a month - on - month increase of 6.6% and a year - on - year increase of 14.5% [30]. - **Zinc inventory**: The LME zinc inventory has been continuously declining since reaching a three - month high on April 17, and the latest inventory level is 119,850 tons, a two - month low. The SHFE zinc inventory increased in the week of June 20, with a weekly decrease of 1.79% [33]. 3.2.2. Lead - **Lead futures and cash**: This week, the lead futures and cash prices continued to rise, the basis was 135 yuan/ton, and the premium range expanded. The price difference between 1 lead and recycled refined lead was 290 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton compared with last week, and the refined - scrap price difference was strengthening [37]. - **Lead concentrate prices and processing fees**: The weekly price of 60% lead concentrate in Kunming fluctuated by 50 yuan/ton; the weekly price of 60% lead concentrate in Baoji decreased by 42 yuan/ton. As of June 20, the lead concentrate processing fee in Jiyuan was 900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400 yuan/ton compared with last week; the lead concentrate processing fee in Chenzhou was 400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan/ton compared with last week; the lead concentrate processing fee in Gejiu was 400 yuan/ton, the same as last week [41]. - **Lead production**: In May 2025, China's lead production was 649,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.7%. In June, more electrolytic lead smelting enterprises were under maintenance, while some recycled lead smelters were expected to resume production and some planned to increase production [45]. - **Lead industry operating rates**: The operating rate of primary lead smelters increased to 70.79% month - on - month. The operating rate of recycled lead enterprises decreased by 4.1 percentage points to 32.1% month - on - month. The operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises increased by 11.8 percentage points to 72.19% month - on - month [48][50][54]. - **Lead inventory**: As of June 26, the LME lead inventory decreased, with the latest level at 273,250 tons. The SHFE lead inventory increased by 1.24% to 51,929 tons in the week of June 20. As of June 26, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five regions was 56,000 tons, the same as on June 19 and an increase of more than 300 tons compared with June 23 [58].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - For lead, due to unresolved raw material shortages, some secondary lead smelters are reducing production, and the demand is in the off - season. The cost support and weak demand are in a tug - of - war. Short - term lead prices are expected to fluctuate widely, and macro uncertainties should be continuously monitored [1] - For zinc, the zinc market has strong supply and weak demand, and the inventory is at a relatively low level. Short - term zinc prices are expected to fluctuate widely. In the medium - to - long term, TC has room to rise, and the center of zinc prices may shift down. A strategy of shorting on rebounds is recommended, and macro - sentiment disturbances should be continuously monitored [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Lead Price and Market Indicators - The average price of SMM1 lead ingots on May 26, 2025, was 16,650 yuan/ton, up 0.15% from the previous day; the closing price of the Shanghai lead futures main contract was 16,860 yuan/ton, up 1.05% [1] - The Shanghai lead basis was - 210 yuan/ton, a change of - 150 yuan/ton; the trading volume of the active futures contract was 51,462 lots, up 19.73%; the open interest was 47,379 lots, up 4.59% [1] - The LME3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic disk) was 1,994 US dollars/ton, up 1.53%; the Shanghai - London lead price ratio was 8.46, down 0.47% [1] Supply and Demand - From May 17 to May 23, the weekly operating rate of SMM primary lead enterprises was 67.75%, up 0.4 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of secondary lead enterprises was 36.7%, down 0.5 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises was 72.66%, flat [1] - On May 22, the LME0 - 3 lead was at a discount of 22.37 US dollars/ton, and the open interest was 139,160 lots, an increase of 759 lots [1] - Primary lead production is stable with a slight increase, while secondary lead production has decreased significantly due to rising raw material costs and limited supply. The demand is in the off - season, and downstream procurement is weak [1] Zinc Price and Market Indicators - The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots on May 26, 2025, was 22,640 yuan/ton, up 0.27% from the previous day; the closing price of the Shanghai zinc futures main contract was 22,215 yuan/ton, down 1.07% [1] - The Shanghai zinc basis was 425 yuan/ton, a change of 300 yuan/ton; the trading volume of the active futures contract was 127,189 lots, up 54.61%; the open interest was 114,069 lots, up 91.20% [1] - The LME3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic disk) was 2,712.5 US dollars/ton, up 0.30%; the Shanghai - London zinc price ratio was 8.19, down 1.36% [1] Supply and Demand - From May 17 to May 23, the weekly operating rate of galvanized enterprises was 62.03%, up 1.09 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of die - cast zinc alloy enterprises was 56.41%, down 2.67 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises was 62.03%, down 0.38 percentage points [1] - As of May 23, the zinc concentrate port inventory was 35.8 tons, a decrease of 2.2 tons from the previous week [1] - Zinc smelters have sufficient raw material inventories, and the zinc ore processing fee is rising. The supply is increasing, while demand from die - cast zinc alloy and zinc oxide industries is weak [1]