铅周报 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 2025 年 9 月 29 日 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 供应逐步恢复 铅价压力增大 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 铅周报 一、交易数据 | | | | 上周市场重要数据 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 9 月 19 | 日 | 9 月 26 日 | 涨跌 | 单位 | | SHFE 铅 | 17150 | | 17110 | -40 | 元/吨 | | LME 铅 | 2003 | | 2001.5 | -1.5 | 美元/吨 | | 沪伦比值 | 8.56 | | 8.5 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The market's optimistic sentiment has cooled as the positive impact of the Fed's rate cut has materialized. The fundamentals are expected to show a situation of both supply and demand increasing. Primary lead smelters will resume production in the second half of the month, and some secondary lead smelters will resume production due to profit recovery, leading to an expected increase in supply. At the same time, the pre - holiday stocking demand of downstream enterprises has improved, and purchases have increased. With multiple factors at play, it is expected that lead prices will remain volatile at high levels in the short term, and there may be a slight adjustment after the downstream stocking ends [3][7] Group 3: Summary by Directory Transaction Data - From September 12th to September 19th, the SHFE lead price rose from 17,040 yuan/ton to 17,150 yuan/ton, an increase of 110 yuan/ton; the LME lead price fell from 2,019 dollars/ton to 2,003 dollars/ton, a decrease of 16 dollars/ton; the Shanghai - London ratio increased from 8.44 to 8.56, an increase of 0.12; the SHFE inventory decreased by 9,229 tons to 57,332 tons; the LME inventory decreased by 9,275 tons to 220,300 tons; the social inventory increased by 0.35 million tons to 3.94 million tons; the spot premium increased by 10 yuan/ton to - 115 yuan/ton [4] Market Review - Last week, the main contract of SHFE lead switched to PB2511, and the futures price fluctuated narrowly at a high level, closing at 17,180 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 0.76%. LME lead fluctuated sideways around 2,000 dollars/ton, closing at 2,003 dollars/ton, a weekly decrease of 0.79%. In the spot market, the supply of goods was limited, and holders held firm on prices. Downstream enterprises mainly made purchases based on rigid demand and preferred to buy directly from smelters [5] Industry News - In the week of September 12th, the average domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained unchanged at 350 yuan/metal ton compared with the previous week, while the average imported lead concentrate processing fee decreased by 10 dollars/dry ton to - 100 dollars/dry ton [8] Related Charts - The report includes multiple charts showing the trends of SHFE and LME lead prices, Shanghai - London ratio, inventory, lead ingot premium, price difference between primary and secondary lead, waste battery prices, secondary lead enterprise profits, lead ore processing fees, electrolytic lead and secondary refined lead production, lead ingot social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss [10][13][17][20][21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - The strengthening of the Fed's interest rate cut expectation provides positive support for the lead price. Meanwhile, the concentrated maintenance of primary lead and secondary lead smelters eases the supply - demand pressure, and capital inflows drive the lead price up. However, demand is difficult to improve significantly. With the resumption of production of some primary lead smelters under maintenance and the possible marginal increase in supply after the secondary lead profit is restored due to the rise in lead price, it is expected that the upward momentum of lead price is limited. Investors should be cautious about chasing the rise and beware of the risk of a high - level decline [4][8] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data - From September 5th to 12th, the SHFE lead price rose from 16,900 yuan/ton to 17,040 yuan/ton, an increase of 140 yuan/ton; the LME lead price rose from 1,988 dollars/ton to 2,019 dollars/ton, an increase of 31 dollars/ton; the Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 8.50 to 8.44, a decrease of 0.06; the SHFE inventory decreased from 66,834 tons to 66,561 tons, a decrease of 273 tons; the LME inventory decreased from 248,200 tons to 229,575 tons, a decrease of 18,625 tons; the social inventory increased from 3.59 million tons to 3.94 million tons, an increase of 0.35 million tons; the spot premium remained at - 125 yuan/ton [5] 3.2 Market Review - Last week, the SHFE lead main contract PB2510 fluctuated narrowly in the first half - week and soared on Friday afternoon, closing at 17,040 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.83%. The LME lead price first declined and then rose, closing at 2,019 dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.56%. In the spot market, on September 12th, the lead prices in Shanghai and Jiangsu - Zhejiang markets were at a discount to the SHFE 2510 contract. Downstream enterprises mainly made long - term order purchases and were hesitant about high - priced goods [6] - As of September 12th, the LME weekly inventory was 248,200 tons, a weekly decrease of 18,625 tons; the SHFE inventory was 66,561 tons, a decrease of 273 tons from the previous week. As of September 11th, the SMM five - region social inventory was 6.7 million tons, a decrease of 600 tons from Monday and an increase of 900 tons from last Thursday. With the approaching of the current - month contract delivery, the inventory may increase again [7] 3.3 Industry News - In the week of September 12th, the average domestic lead concentrate processing fee was 350 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/metal ton from the previous week; the average imported lead concentrate processing fee was 90 dollars/dry ton, remaining unchanged from the previous week [9] 3.4 Related Charts - The report presents multiple charts, including those showing the SHFE and LME lead prices, Shanghai - London ratio, SHFE and LME inventories, 1 lead premium, LME lead premium, primary - secondary lead price difference, secondary lead enterprise profit, lead ore processing fee, electrolytic lead and secondary refined lead production, lead ingot social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss [11][14][18][22]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai lead futures was under pressure. The US economic data recovery, inflation concerns, and the Fed officials' suppression of interest - rate cut expectations led to a rebound in the US dollar, dragging down lead prices, but Powell's dovish speech at the Jackson Hole meeting improved interest - rate cut expectations and boosted lead prices [2][7][8]. - Fundamentally, the supply of lead concentrates remained tight, and the raw material inventory of electrolytic lead smelters in Henan and Hunan was low. Electrolytic lead showed a pattern of co - existence of reduction and resumption of production. The profit of secondary lead smelters was poor, and some reduced production due to losses. The battery consumption did not improve significantly, and the peak - season effect was insufficient [2][7][8]. - Overall, the interest - rate cut expectations improved, but the fundamentals were weak in both supply and demand. Supply was regionally tight, but consumption was lackluster, and inventories remained at a relatively high level. The LME inventory increase trend continued, putting pressure on lead prices. In the short term, lead prices are expected to remain volatile, and the inversion of refined and secondary lead prices provides some support [2][7][8]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 3.1 Transaction Data - From August 15th to August 22nd, the SHFE lead price decreased from 16,850 yuan/ton to 16,780 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan/ton; the LME lead price increased from 1,981 dollars/ton to 1,992 dollars/ton, an increase of 11 dollars/ton; the Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 8.51 to 8.42, a decrease of 0.08; the SHFE inventory decreased by 1,154 tons to 63,690 tons; the LME inventory increased by 11,950 tons to 273,050 tons; the social inventory increased by 0.35 million tons to 3.94 million tons; the spot premium remained at - 155 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Market Review - Last week, the main PB2509 contract of Shanghai lead futures continued to be under pressure and fluctuated narrowly, closing at 16,780 yuan/ton with a weekly decline of 0.42%. The LME lead price was weak due to the rising US dollar and inventory increase, but finally closed at 1,992 dollars/ton with a weekly increase of 0.56% [6]. - In the spot market, as of August 22nd, the prices of lead in Shanghai and Jiangsu - Zhejiang markets were at a discount to the SHFE 2509 contract. The downstream procurement enthusiasm was general, and the spot market trading was light [6]. - As of August 22nd, the LME weekly inventory was 273,050 tons, an increase of 11,950 tons; the SHFE inventory was 63,690 tons, a decrease of 1,154 tons. As of August 21st, the SMM five - region social inventory was 6.99 million tons, a decrease of 0.11 million tons from Monday and an increase of 0.19 million tons from the previous Thursday [7]. 3.3 Industry News - As of August 22nd, the average domestic lead concentrate processing fee was 400 yuan/metal degree, a decrease of 100 yuan/metal ton compared with the previous period; the average imported ore processing fee was - 90 dollars/dry ton, a decrease of 10 dollars/dry ton [9]. - In July, the import volume of lead concentrates was 122,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.59% and a year - on - year increase of 28.35%. The cumulative import volume from January to July was 793,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 30.68%. The export volume of refined lead and lead alloys in July was 4,199 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.04%, and the import volume of refined lead and lead products was 16,317 tons, a month - on - month increase of 42.1% [9]. 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides 14 related charts, including SHFE and LME lead prices, Shanghai - London ratio, inventory, lead ingot premium, price difference between primary and secondary lead, waste battery price, secondary lead enterprise profit, lead ore processing fee, electrolytic lead and secondary refined lead production, lead ingot social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss [10][13][15][18][19][21].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Market expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts are inconsistent, and market risk appetite lacks sustainability. The fundamentals continue to show a pattern of a slight increase in supply but lower-than-expected demand. High inventory levels put pressure on lead prices, while the relatively stable supply-demand gap at the cost end provides support. There are few new contradictions in the short term, and lead prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range, with the integer resistance level above remaining effective [4][9]. 3. Summary by Section Transaction Data | Contract | 8/8 | 8/15 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Lead | 16,845 | 16,850 | 5 | Yuan/ton | | LME Lead | 2,003.5 | 1,981 | -22.5 | US dollars/ton | | SHFE - LME Ratio | 8.41 | 8.51 | 0.10 | - | | SHFE Inventory | 62,334 | 64,844 | 2,510 | Tons | | LME Inventory | 268,375 | 261,100 | -7,275 | Tons | | Social Inventory | 3.59 | 3.94 | 0.35 | Ten thousand tons | | Spot Premium | -150 | -155 | -5 | Yuan/ton | [5] Market Review - The price of the main SHFE lead contract PB2509 declined under pressure last week. The price rebounded but was blocked by the integer resistance level and then fell, closing at 16,850 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.03%. LME lead first rose and then fell, closing at 1,981 US dollars/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.12% [6]. - In the spot market, as of August 15, the price of lead in the Shanghai and Jiangsu - Zhejiang markets showed a downward trend. The inventory of LME decreased, while the SHFE inventory and social inventory increased. The delivery of the current - month contract led to an increase in inventory [7]. Industry News - As of August 15, the average domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained unchanged, while the average import ore processing fee decreased by 15 US dollars/ton compared to the previous period [10]. - Some lead - smelting enterprises in Henan may face air - quality environmental protection emergency control from August 26 to September 3, which may restrict vehicle transportation [10]. Related Charts The report provides multiple charts, including SHFE and LME lead prices, SHFE - LME ratios, inventory levels, lead price premiums and discounts, price differences between primary and secondary lead, waste battery prices, secondary lead enterprise profits, lead ore processing fees, electrolytic lead and secondary refined lead production, lead ingot social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss [12][13][15][18][19][21][23][25].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai lead futures rebounded weakly. The market strengthened the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September, and China's import and export data in July were good, with stable economic growth and a slight increase in market risk appetite [3][6][7]. - Fundamentally, the improvement of the raw material side was not obvious. The processing fees of lead concentrates at home and abroad were under pressure, the supply - demand contradiction of waste batteries still existed, and the price was firm. However, downstream smelters were cautious in high - price purchases, and recyclers lacked confidence [3][6][7]. - In the smelting sector, the production of primary lead smelters was stable. Some smelters were under maintenance for a month in mid - and late August, and the supply in August was expected to increase slightly month - on - month. For secondary lead, the sewage inspection in Anhui affected local smelters, boosting the market sentiment and leading to a rebound in lead prices. Currently, smelters still had large losses, and unplanned production cuts were possible [3][6][7]. - On the demand side, the peak season was dull. In August, the impact of tariffs emerged, new export orders for batteries decreased, and due to high temperatures in many places, some battery enterprises took holidays, with limited production increase space [3][6][7]. - Overall, the rebound of interest rate cut expectations suppressed the US dollar, supporting lead prices. The sewage inspection in Anhui slightly disturbed the supply side and boosted market sentiment, but the impact was controllable. With stable electrolytic lead production, mediocre consumption, and high inventory pressure, the lead price rebound lacked sustainability. In the short term, lead prices were expected to fluctuate and consolidate, with resistance around 17,000 yuan [3][6][7]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Transaction Data - From July 18th to July 25th, the SHFE lead price rose from 16,735 yuan/ton to 16,845 yuan/ton, an increase of 110 yuan/ton; the LME lead price rose from 1,974 dollars/ton to 2,003.5 dollars/ton, an increase of 29.5 dollars/ton; the Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 8.48 to 8.41; the SHFE inventory decreased by 949 tons to 62,334 tons; the LME inventory decreased by 6,950 tons to 268,375 tons; the social inventory decreased by 0.18 million tons to 7.11 million tons; the spot premium remained at - 150 yuan/ton [4]. Market Review - Last week, the main PB2509 contract of Shanghai lead futures rebounded weakly, closing at 16,845 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 0.66%. LME lead stopped falling and rebounded, closing at 2,003.5 dollars/ton, a weekly increase of 1.49% [5]. - In the spot market as of August 8th, the prices of lead in Shanghai and Jiangsu - Zhejiang regions were at a discount to the SHFE 2509 contract. Recycled lead smelting enterprises tried to maintain prices, and the recycled refined lead was quoted at a premium of 0 - 50 yuan/ton to the SMM 1 lead average price [5]. - In terms of inventory, as of August 8th, the LME weekly inventory decreased by 6,950 tons to 268,375 tons, and the SHFE inventory decreased by 949 tons to 62,334 tons. As of August 7th, the SMM five - region social inventory decreased by 800 tons compared with Monday and 0.18 million tons compared with last Thursday. However, due to the approaching delivery of the current - month contract, there was a possibility of inventory stop - falling and rebound [6]. Industry News - As of August 8th, the average domestic lead concentrate processing fee was 500 yuan/metal degree, and the average import ore processing fee was - 60 dollars/dry ton, both remaining unchanged from the previous period [8]. - The sewage inspection in Anhui affected local secondary lead smelters. Some smelters stopped production and waited for further notice, while others maintained production [8]. Related Charts - The report provides 14 charts, including SHFE and LME lead prices, inventory, lead ingot premiums, spreads between primary and recycled lead, waste battery prices, recycled lead enterprise profits, lead ore processing fees, lead production, social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss [9][12][13][15].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The lead price is currently in a short - term upward trend, driven by improved macro - sentiment and expectations of consumption improvement. However, the recovery of secondary lead smelter profits increases the expectation of resuming production, which is not conducive to the lead price. The lead price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term, and there is a risk of price retracement when the positive sentiment fades [3][6][8]. Group 3: Summary by Sections 1. Transaction Data - From June 20th to June 27th, the SHFE lead price rose from 16,810 yuan/ton to 17,125 yuan/ton, an increase of 315 yuan/ton; the LME lead price rose from 1,995 dollars/ton to 2,041.5 dollars/ton, an increase of 46.5 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 8.43 to 8.39. The SHFE inventory increased by 638 tons to 51,929 tons, while the LME inventory decreased by 10,650 tons to 273,425 tons. The social inventory increased by 0.03 million tons to 5.6 million tons, and the spot premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 170 yuan/ton [4]. 2. Market Review - Last week, the main contract of SHFE lead switched to PB2508, breaking through the 17,000 - yuan integer mark and rising strongly, with a weekly increase of 1.87%. The LME lead price also broke through the shock range, with a weekly increase of 2.33%. In the spot market, after the SHFE lead price rose and then fell, holders maintained a discount for sales, and the supply of secondary refined lead increased with an expanded discount, resulting in sluggish trading in the electrolytic lead market [5]. 3. Industry News - In July, the average domestic and imported lead concentrate processing fees were 550 yuan/metal ton and - 45 dollars/dry ton respectively, down 50 yuan/metal ton and - 15 dollars/dry ton month - on - month [8]. 4. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including SHFE and LME lead prices, Shanghai - London ratio, inventory, lead ingot premium, price difference between primary and secondary lead, waste battery price, secondary lead enterprise profit, lead concentrate processing fee, primary and secondary lead production, lead ingot social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss [10][11][13][15][17][21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Zinc: The Shanghai zinc futures continue to rebound. - Lead: Supported by the cost of recycled lead and with signs of demand recovery, the lead price is clearly supported. Attention should be paid to the resistance level at 17,500 [61]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Multi - Empty Focus 3.1.1. Zinc - Bullish factors: The US index is expected to decline, and there are disturbances in the supply side overseas. - Bearish factors: Zinc ingot inventory has a slight increase [7]. 3.1.2. Lead - Bullish factors: There is a regional shortage in the supply of recycled lead, the price of waste batteries has increased, and social inventory has decreased. - Bearish factors: Consumption has not significantly recovered [10]. 3.2. Data Analysis 3.2.1. Zinc - **Import of zinc ore concentrates**: In May 2025, China's import volume of zinc ore concentrates was 491,522.01 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.64% and a year - on - year increase of 85.28%. The supply from major countries decreased, but other countries increased their supply, resulting in the May import volume being basically the same as that of the previous month. Recently, the import zinc ore processing fee has been rebounding, and there is an expectation of a marginal loosening of the ore supply [12]. - **Processing fees**: In June, the average domestic zinc concentrate TC increased by 150 yuan/metal ton month - on - month to 3,650 yuan/metal ton, and the average imported ore TC increased by 10 dollars/dry ton month - on - month to 55 dollars/dry ton. The short - term weekly processing fees were relatively stable. The CZSPT released the guidance price range for the US dollar processing fee for imported zinc concentrates before the end of the third quarter of 2025: 80 dollars (average) - 100 dollars (average)/dry ton [15]. - **Zinc concentrate prices**: The price of 50% zinc concentrate in Hechi increased by 210 yuan/ton to 17,060 yuan/ton compared with last week; the price of 50% zinc concentrate in Chenzhou increased by 240 yuan/ton to 17,150 yuan/ton [20]. - **Zinc production**: In May 2025, China's zinc production was 583,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%. In June, there were both new capacity releases and production resumptions, as well as some production cuts due to maintenance [23]. - **Refined zinc import**: In May 2025, China's refined zinc import volume was 26,716.511 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.36% and a year - on - year decrease of 39.85%. Kazakhstan was the largest supplier, and Australia was the second - largest supplier [26]. - **Automobile market**: In May, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.27 million and 1.307 million respectively, with year - on - year growth of 35% and 36.9% respectively. The new energy vehicle sales accounted for 48.7% of the total vehicle sales, reaching a new high. In May, China's total vehicle exports were 551,000, a month - on - month increase of 6.6% and a year - on - year increase of 14.5% [30]. - **Zinc inventory**: The LME zinc inventory has been continuously declining since reaching a three - month high on April 17, and the latest inventory level is 119,850 tons, a two - month low. The SHFE zinc inventory increased in the week of June 20, with a weekly decrease of 1.79% [33]. 3.2.2. Lead - **Lead futures and cash**: This week, the lead futures and cash prices continued to rise, the basis was 135 yuan/ton, and the premium range expanded. The price difference between 1 lead and recycled refined lead was 290 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton compared with last week, and the refined - scrap price difference was strengthening [37]. - **Lead concentrate prices and processing fees**: The weekly price of 60% lead concentrate in Kunming fluctuated by 50 yuan/ton; the weekly price of 60% lead concentrate in Baoji decreased by 42 yuan/ton. As of June 20, the lead concentrate processing fee in Jiyuan was 900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400 yuan/ton compared with last week; the lead concentrate processing fee in Chenzhou was 400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan/ton compared with last week; the lead concentrate processing fee in Gejiu was 400 yuan/ton, the same as last week [41]. - **Lead production**: In May 2025, China's lead production was 649,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.7%. In June, more electrolytic lead smelting enterprises were under maintenance, while some recycled lead smelters were expected to resume production and some planned to increase production [45]. - **Lead industry operating rates**: The operating rate of primary lead smelters increased to 70.79% month - on - month. The operating rate of recycled lead enterprises decreased by 4.1 percentage points to 32.1% month - on - month. The operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises increased by 11.8 percentage points to 72.19% month - on - month [48][50][54]. - **Lead inventory**: As of June 26, the LME lead inventory decreased, with the latest level at 273,250 tons. The SHFE lead inventory increased by 1.24% to 51,929 tons in the week of June 20. As of June 26, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five regions was 56,000 tons, the same as on June 19 and an increase of more than 300 tons compared with June 23 [58].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical conflicts have escalated, leading to a decline in macro - risk appetite. Fundamental support has increased, with a sequential decline in recycled lead supply due to environmental inspections and losses. However, consumption is in the transition phase between peak and off - peak seasons, showing no obvious recovery, and inventory has increased slightly, slowing down the upward momentum of lead prices. Supply - side contradictions support lead prices to fluctuate strongly, but significant improvement in consumption is needed to effectively open up the upside space. Short - term attention should be paid to the resistance around 17,200 yuan/ton [3][7] Summary by Directory 1. Transaction Data - From June 6th to June 13th, the SHFE lead price rose from 16,780 yuan/ton to 16,945 yuan/ton, an increase of 165 yuan/ton; the LME lead price rose from 1,974 dollars/ton to 1,992.5 dollars/ton, an increase of 18.5 dollars/ton; the SHFE - LME ratio remained unchanged at 8.50. The SHFE inventory increased by 1,875 tons to 49,811 tons, the LME inventory decreased by 16,300 tons to 264,975 tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.08 million tons to 5.47 million tons. The spot premium decreased by 15 yuan/ton to - 205 yuan/ton [4] 2. Market Review - Last week, the price center of the main SHFE lead contract PB2507 moved up, mainly boosted by the production cuts of recycled lead smelters in Inner Mongolia and Anhui due to environmental inspections. However, the increase was slowed down by the inventory increase, and it finally closed at 16,945 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 0.98%. The LME lead price maintained a sideways shock, closing at 1,992 dollars/ton, a weekly increase of 0.91%. In the spot market, by June 13th, the price of Chihong and Honglu lead in the Shanghai market was 16,930 - 16,980 yuan/ton, at a discount of 50 - 0 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2507 contract. The ex - factory prices of electrolytic lead smelters were firm, and recycled lead smelters actively quoted for sales. Downstream enterprises were more cautious, with fewer inquiries and weaker spot market transactions [5] 3. Industry News - As of the week of June 13th, the weekly processing fees for domestic and foreign zinc concentrates were reported at 600 yuan/metal ton and - 45 dollars/dry ton respectively, remaining unchanged from the previous week [8] 4. Related Charts - The report provides 14 charts, including SHFE and LME lead prices, SHFE - LME ratio, inventory, lead price premiums and discounts, price differences between primary and recycled lead, recycled lead enterprise profits, lead ore processing fees, production of primary and recycled lead, social inventory of lead ingots, and refined lead import profit and loss [10][12][13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The zinc price's box - style oscillation pattern awaits a breakthrough, while the lead price is expected to remain volatile. Attention should be focused on the price trend of waste batteries [4][64]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Report Abstract - The US ADP employment increase in a certain month was 1.37 million, lower than the expected 1.5 million and the previous value of 2.625 million, reaching the lowest level in years. The market focused on this data [4]. - China's manufacturing PMI in a certain month was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, but still below the critical point. It was the first time to fall below the critical point in a certain period [4]. - The European Central Bank mentioned continued small - scale interest rate cuts, and countries would increase investment in national defense and infrastructure, providing support on a broader macro - level [4]. - The China Zinc Raw Material Joint Negotiation (Coordination) Group announced the guidance price range for imported zinc concentrate procurement fees in the third quarter of 2025 [4]. - The supply of zinc raw materials remained loose, and the zinc ingot output might have a large - scale increase. The domestic zinc ingot social inventory decreased slightly, and the low inventory supported the zinc price [4]. - The supply of recycled lead was unstable, and the inventory of lead ingots in the national market increased. The consumption of waste batteries was weak, and the lead price was expected to remain volatile [4]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - Focus 3.2.1 Multi - and Short - Factors Analysis (Zinc) - Bullish factors: The output of domestic and foreign zinc mines may accelerate in June, and the zinc ingot output ratio may have a large - scale increase, and the social inventory has decreased [7]. - Bearish factors: The consumption end is weak [7]. 3.2.2 Multi - and Short - Factors Analysis (Lead) - Bullish factors: The supply of recycled lead is still unstable [10]. - Bearish factors: The operating rate of primary lead enterprises is high, the price of waste batteries is running weakly, and the off - season consumption has not improved significantly [10]. 3.3 Data Analysis 3.3.1 Zinc - Related Data - In April, China's zinc ore concentrate imports were 494,662.21 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 37.64% and a year - on - year increase of 72.63%. The supply from major countries increased, and Australia became the top supplier [12]. - In June, the average domestic zinc concentrate TC increased by 150 yuan/metal ton to 3,650 yuan/metal ton, and the average imported ore TC increased by 10 dollars/dry ton to 55 dollars/dry ton. The China Zinc Raw Material Joint Negotiation (Coordination) Group released the guidance price range for imported zinc concentrate procurement fees [15]. - The price of zinc concentrate slightly increased. The price of 50% zinc concentrate in Hechi was 17,930 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton from the previous week; in Chenzhou, it was 17,700 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton from the previous week [20]. - In April, China's refined zinc output was 576,000 tons, down 39,000 tons from March, with a year - on - year slight increase of 0.3%. From January to April, the cumulative output was 2.333 million tons, and the year - on - year decline narrowed to 2.9%. Due to the increase in zinc ore processing fees, the smelter's production profit was repaired [23]. - In April, refined zinc imports were 28,200 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 2.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 38.66%. From January to April, the cumulative imports were 129,200 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 9.44% [26]. - Policies such as the new energy vehicle countryside campaign and urban renewal were introduced, which may have an impact on the consumption of zinc in related industries [30]. - As of June 5, the LME zinc inventory was 137,150 tons, down 1.44% from the previous week. The SHFE zinc inventory decreased by 4% to 42,310 tons in the week of May 30. As of June 5, the zinc ingot inventory in the national main markets was 58,300 tons, down 900 tons from June 3 [33]. 3.3.2 Lead - Related Data - This week, the lead futures and spot prices rebounded after hitting the bottom. The basis was 55 yuan/ton, and the premium range narrowed. The price difference between 1 lead and recycled refined lead was 110 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton from the previous week [38]. - The weekly price of 60% lead concentrate in Kunming decreased by 257 yuan/ton, and in Baoji, it decreased by 251 yuan/ton. As of May 30, the lead concentrate processing fees in different regions changed, with some decreasing and some increasing [42]. - In April 2025, the lead concentrate imports were 111,046 physical tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.3% and a year - on - year increase of 22.1%. As of 2025, the cumulative lead concentrate imports were about 448,700 physical tons, with a year - on - year increase of 41%. In April, the refined lead imports were 4,734 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 65% [46]. - In April 2025, China's lead output was 664,000 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 1%. Both primary lead and recycled lead production decreased in April, but some enterprises resumed production in May [48]. - The operating rate of primary lead increased by 5.98 percentage points to 66.26%. The operating rate of recycled lead enterprises increased by 10.94 percentage points to 62.91%, and the operating rate of lead batteries increased by 1.99 percentage points to 74.34% [51][53][57]. - Last week, the LME lead inventory decreased after a large - scale increase, and the SHFE lead inventory decreased by 3.98% to 46,500 tons in the week of May 30. As of June 5, the national main market lead ingot social inventory was 50,800 tons, up 3,900 tons from June 3 [61]. 3.4 Market Outlook - The zinc price's box - style oscillation pattern awaits a breakthrough; the lead price is expected to remain volatile, and attention should be paid to the price trend of waste batteries [64].