Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The weakening US dollar is favorable for the repair of lead price trends. Environmental controls in many domestic regions and the negative profit of secondary lead smelters have led to an increase in smelter shutdowns and holidays, resulting in an expected contraction in supply. Meanwhile, downstream battery enterprises are gradually stockpiling for the Spring Festival, leading to improved demand. Against the backdrop of reduced supply and increased demand, the support for the lower limit of lead prices is strengthened. In the short term, lead prices are expected to maintain a weak and stable oscillatory repair [3][7] Group 3: Summary by Directory Transaction Data - From January 16th to January 23rd, the SHFE lead price dropped from 17,475 yuan/ton to 17,095 yuan/ton, a decrease of 380 yuan/ton; the LME lead price fell from 2,037.5 dollars/ton to 2,035 dollars/ton, a decrease of 2.5 dollars/ton; the SHFE-LME ratio decreased from 8.58 to 8.40, a decrease of 0.18; the SHFE inventory decreased by 7,693 tons to 29,351 tons; the LME inventory increased by 8,825 tons to 215,175 tons; the social inventory increased by 0.2 million tons to 3.45 million tons; the spot premium increased by 5 yuan/ton to -140 yuan/ton [4] Market Review - Last week, the main SHFE lead 2603 contract price continued to decline at the beginning of the week, but then stabilized and oscillated after the market sentiment recovered and it found support near the integer level, finally closing at 17,095 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 2.17%. The LME lead price stopped falling and stabilized, and the contract price stabilized and recovered to 2,035 dollars/ton, with a decline of 0.15%. In the spot market, on January 23rd, the Honglu lead in Shanghai was quoted at 17,140 - 17,210 yuan/ton, with a premium of 50 yuan/ton over the SHFE lead 2603 contract. Downstream enterprises' risk aversion sentiment was relatively alleviated, and some enterprises made rigid purchases, but the transactions were still scattered [5] Industry News - In February 2026, the domestic and international lead concentrate processing fees were 250 yuan/metal ton and -150 dollars/dry ton respectively, with the average values decreasing by 50 yuan/metal ton and -5 dollars/dry ton respectively. - In January 2026, multiple cities in Shandong and Hebei launched heavy pollution emergency responses, affecting the production of some lead smelters. - Pan American Silver Corp. produced 55,900 tons of zinc and 27,000 tons of lead in 2025, and it is expected to produce 58,500 - 62,500 tons of zinc and 30,500 - 32,500 tons of lead in 2026. - The global lead market's supply surplus decreased from 29,200 tons in October to 8,900 tons in November. - In December 2025, the import volume of lead concentrates was 149,200 tons, a month-on-month increase of 35.8% and a year-on-year increase of 24.63%; the import volume of silver concentrates was 239,300 tons, a month-on-month increase of 32.3% and a year-on-year increase of 89.3%. The export volume of refined lead was 2,767 tons, a month-on-month increase of 141.08% and a year-on-year increase of 270.61%; the cumulative export volume of refined lead and lead products from January to December was 59,440 tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 42.5%. The import volume of refined lead was 8,395 tons, and the import volume of lead alloys was 24,011 tons; the cumulative import volume of refined lead and lead products from January to December was 198,641 tons, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 10.19%. The export volume of lead-acid batteries was 17.2406 million units, a month-on-month increase of 9.28 percentage points and a year-on-year decrease of 33.86 percentage points; the cumulative export volume of lead-acid batteries in 2025 was 219 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 12.79 percentage points [8][9] Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including SHFE and LME lead prices, SHFE-LME ratio, SHFE and LME inventories, 1 lead premium/discount, LME lead premium/discount, price difference between primary lead and secondary refined lead, waste battery prices, secondary lead enterprise profits, lead concentrate processing fees, electrolytic lead production, secondary refined lead production, lead ingot social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss [10][11][13]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai lead futures rose first and then fell. The macro - environment was positive, with loose monetary expectations at home and abroad and geopolitical conflicts increasing the premium of resource - end products, which led to a general rise in precious metals and non - ferrous metals. [4] - Fundamentally, the supply of domestic lead ore raw materials remained tight, and the processing fee was at a low level. In the electrolytic lead sector, there were both production cuts and restarts in January, with a slight expected increase in production. In the recycled lead sector, raw material constraints still existed, and the production was expected to decline slightly month - on - month. On the demand side, consumption expectations were under pressure, and social inventories were expected to rise slowly. [4] - Overall, the macro - environment was positive, and non - ferrous metals rotated up. The supply - demand situation was weak on both sides, and the lead price was expected to fluctuate widely following the non - ferrous sector. However, due to the strong cost support, the downside space of the lead price was limited. [4][8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Trading Data - From January 9th to January 16th, the SHFE lead price rose from 17,355 yuan/ton to 17,475 yuan/ton, an increase of 120 yuan/ton; the LME lead price fell from 2046.5 dollars/ton to 2037.5 dollars/ton, a decrease of 9 dollars/ton; the Shanghai - London ratio increased from 8.48 to 8.58, an increase of 0.10. [5] - The SHFE inventory increased from 30,111 tons to 37,044 tons, an increase of 6,933 tons; the LME inventory decreased from 222,725 tons to 206,350 tons, a decrease of 16,375 tons; the social inventory increased from 1.96 million tons to 3.25 million tons, an increase of 1.29 million tons; the spot premium decreased from - 130 yuan/ton to - 145 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton. [5] Market Review - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai lead futures fluctuated widely at a high level, closing at 17,475 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.69%. LME lead first declined and then rose, closing at 2038 dollars/ton, with a decline of 0.42%. [6] - In the spot market, the supply was abundant, and the demand was weak, resulting in sluggish trading. The inventory of recycled lead smelters was high, and some lead smelting enterprises would limit production due to smog warnings, which was expected to ease the shipping pressure of holders. [6] Industry News - On January 16, 2026, the domestic and foreign lead concentrate processing fees were 300 yuan/metal ton and - 145 dollars/dry ton respectively, with the average remaining unchanged from the previous week. [9] - Starting from April 14, 2026, the London Metal Exchange (LME) will no longer accept the warehousing registration of certain zinc and lead brands. [9] - On January 16, 2026, Fuyang, Anhui issued an orange warning, and local recycled lead smelters would reduce production by 50%. [9] Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the prices of SHFE and LME lead, the Shanghai - London ratio, inventory situations, lead price spreads, waste battery prices, enterprise profits, production volumes, and social inventories, which help to comprehensively analyze the lead market. [10][14][16][18][20][23][24][26][29][30]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai lead futures rebounded steadily. The market's dovish bets on the interest - rate cut path increased, the US dollar was weak, and non - ferrous metals such as copper and tin strengthened, driving up the lead price. The supply - demand tension of lead ore is difficult to reverse in the short term, and the cost side supports the lead price. Although the production of some refineries recovered in November, there were more refinery overhauls in December, and the production of primary and recycled lead is expected to decline month - on - month. The terminal consumption is divided, with the consumption of electric bicycle batteries weakening, but the consumption of automobile starting batteries improving, and large - and medium - sized battery enterprises starting year - end stockpiling. Overall, the macro - environment is warm, the fundamentals are marginally improved, and social inventories have dropped to a new low for the year, supporting the lead price. It is expected that the lead price will remain oscillating strongly in the short term, but the rebound space is restricted by the import expectation of lead ingots, and attention should be paid to the resistance around 17,500 yuan/ton [3][6][7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | 11/28 | 12/5 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Lead | 17,090 | 17,290 | 200 | yuan/ton | | LME Lead | 1,981 | 2,009 | 28 | US dollars/ton | | Shanghai - London Ratio | 8.63 | 8.61 | - 0.02 | | | SHFE Inventory | 37,799 | 34,735 | - 3,064 | tons | | LME Inventory | 263,175 | 243,550 | - 19,625 | tons | | Social Inventory | 3.07 | 2.36 | - 0.71 | 10,000 tons | | Spot Premium | - 65 | - 65 | 0 | yuan/ton | [4] 3.2 Market Review - Last week, the price of the main Shanghai lead PB2601 contract rebounded steadily, breaking through the moving - average pressure and finally closing at 17,290 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.17%. The LME lead price also rebounded slightly, closing at 2,009 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.41%. In the spot market, the supply of lead in the Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai markets was limited, and most of the lead ingots were from refineries. The supply of lead in the East China region was tight, and the mainstream origin quoted a premium of 0 - 50 yuan/ton over the SMM1 lead average price. The recycled lead refineries were more willing to sell, and the downstream enterprises mainly purchased through long - term contracts [5]. - As of December 5, the LME weekly inventory was 243,550 tons, a weekly decrease of 19,625 tons. The SHFE inventory was 34,735 tons, a decrease of 3,064 tons from the previous week. As of December 4, the SMM five - region social inventory was 23,600 tons, a decrease of 7,100 tons from Monday and 11,400 tons from Thursday of the previous week. As the delivery of the current - month contract approaches, some goods holders may transfer their inventory for delivery, and the social inventory is expected to stabilize [6]. 3.3 Industry News - As of the week of December 5, the domestic lead concentrate processing fee was 300 yuan/metal ton, and the imported ore processing fee was - 135 US dollars/dry ton, with the average values remaining flat month - on - month [8]. - In November, the electrolytic lead production was 327,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%. It is expected to slightly decrease to 323,400 tons in December. The recycled refined lead production in November was 296,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.5% and a year - on - year increase of 10.2%. It is expected to slightly decrease to 290,300 tons in December [8]. 3.4 Related Charts The report provides multiple charts, including SHFE and LME lead prices, Shanghai - London ratio, SHFE and LME inventories, 1 lead premium and discount, LME lead premium and discount, the price difference between primary and recycled lead, recycled lead enterprise profits, lead ore processing fees, electrolytic lead and recycled refined lead production, lead ingot social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss [9][11][13][15].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai lead first rose and then fell. Macroscopically, the end of the US government shutdown, hawkish remarks from Fed officials, and weak domestic economic data pressured lead prices. Fundamentally, raw material supply remained tight, and processing fees for lead concentrates were weak and stable. Environmental controls in Henan affected the recycling of waste batteries, and some holders withheld goods, increasing costs. On the smelting side, primary lead production was stable, while secondary lead supply decreased slightly. In terms of demand, the consumption of lead - acid batteries for electric bicycles entered the off - season, and enterprises mainly made rigid purchases. Overall, LME lead was technically strong, and the domestic supply was stable while demand was weak. The import window for lead ingots closed, and lead prices were expected to adjust at a high level, with limited downward space due to the strength of LME lead and low domestic inventories [3][5][6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Transaction Data - From November 7th to November 14th, SHFE lead rose from 17,420 yuan/ton to 17,495 yuan/ton, LME lead rose from 2045 dollars/ton to 2066 dollars/ton, the Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 8.52 to 8.47, SHFE inventory increased by 4208 tons to 42,790 tons, LME inventory increased by 18,775 tons to 222,475 tons, social inventory increased by 0.31 million tons to 3.49 million tons, and the spot premium decreased from - 175 yuan/ton to - 190 yuan/ton [4] Market Review - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai lead switched to PB2601, with a weekly increase of 0.34%. LME lead rose first and then adjusted, with a weekly increase of 1.03%. In the spot market, after the rise and fall of Shanghai lead, the willingness of holders to deliver was determined, and the enthusiasm for shipping increased. Downstream enterprises were cautious in purchasing [5] Industry News - As of the week of November 14th, the domestic lead concentrate processing fee was 300 yuan/metal ton, and the imported ore processing fee was - 135 dollars/dry ton, with both averages remaining flat month - on - month [9] Related Charts - The report provides 14 charts, including SHFE and LME lead prices, Shanghai - London ratio, inventory levels, spread situations, waste battery prices, enterprise profit, processing fees, output, social inventory, and import profit and loss [11][12][18][19][22][23][25]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the resumption of production at primary lead smelters, the gradual resumption of secondary lead production, and the arrival of some crude lead, the supply side shows a recovery trend. However, downstream battery companies have completed their stockpiling, and the inventory reduction will slow down. There is a supply - demand mismatch during the National Day holiday, and there is an expectation of inventory increase, which will put pressure on lead prices. With fewer trading days this week and cautious pre - holiday funds, it is expected that lead prices will fluctuate weakly at high levels [3][7] Group 3: Summary of Each Section Transaction Data - From September 19th to September 26th, the SHFE lead price dropped from 17,150 yuan/ton to 17,110 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton; the LME lead price dropped from 2,003 dollars/ton to 2,001.5 dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.5 dollars/ton; the Shanghai - London ratio dropped from 8.56 to 8.55; the SHFE inventory decreased by 8,123 tons to 49,209 tons; the LME inventory decreased by 875 tons to 219,425 tons; the social inventory decreased by 0.84 million tons to 4.64 million tons; the spot premium dropped by 15 yuan/ton to - 130 yuan/ton [4] Market Review - Last week, the main SHFE lead contract PB2511 fluctuated at a high level, closing at 17,110 yuan/ton with a weekly decline of 0.23%. The LME lead first declined and then rose, maintaining a sideways oscillation, closing at 2,001.5 dollars/ton with a weekly decline of 0.07%. In the spot market, near the National Day holiday, the supply of circulating goods was limited. Downstream enterprises purchased on demand, and most lead battery companies had completed pre - holiday stockpiling and only maintained rigid procurement. The inventory decreased significantly but the downward trend will slow down later [5][6] Industry News - In October, the average domestic lead concentrate processing fee was 400 yuan/metal ton, a month - on - month decrease of 50 yuan/metal ton, and the average imported lead concentrate processing fee was - 115 dollars/dry ton, a month - on - month decrease of 25 dollars/dry ton. A large smelter in Henan resumed production on September 26th. In August, the import volume of zinc ore and its concentrates decreased by 6.51% month - on - month and increased by 30.87% year - on - year; the import volume of refined zinc increased by 43.3% month - on - month and decreased by 3.6% year - on - year; the export volume of galvanized sheets decreased by 8.35% month - on - month and increased by 1.71% year - on - year [8] Related Charts - The report provides 14 charts, including SHFE and LME lead prices, Shanghai - London ratio, inventory, lead premium, price difference between primary and secondary lead, waste battery price, secondary lead enterprise profit, lead ore processing fee, electrolytic lead production, secondary refined lead production, lead ingot social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss [10][11][18]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The market's optimistic sentiment has cooled as the positive impact of the Fed's rate cut has materialized. The fundamentals are expected to show a situation of both supply and demand increasing. Primary lead smelters will resume production in the second half of the month, and some secondary lead smelters will resume production due to profit recovery, leading to an expected increase in supply. At the same time, the pre - holiday stocking demand of downstream enterprises has improved, and purchases have increased. With multiple factors at play, it is expected that lead prices will remain volatile at high levels in the short term, and there may be a slight adjustment after the downstream stocking ends [3][7] Group 3: Summary by Directory Transaction Data - From September 12th to September 19th, the SHFE lead price rose from 17,040 yuan/ton to 17,150 yuan/ton, an increase of 110 yuan/ton; the LME lead price fell from 2,019 dollars/ton to 2,003 dollars/ton, a decrease of 16 dollars/ton; the Shanghai - London ratio increased from 8.44 to 8.56, an increase of 0.12; the SHFE inventory decreased by 9,229 tons to 57,332 tons; the LME inventory decreased by 9,275 tons to 220,300 tons; the social inventory increased by 0.35 million tons to 3.94 million tons; the spot premium increased by 10 yuan/ton to - 115 yuan/ton [4] Market Review - Last week, the main contract of SHFE lead switched to PB2511, and the futures price fluctuated narrowly at a high level, closing at 17,180 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 0.76%. LME lead fluctuated sideways around 2,000 dollars/ton, closing at 2,003 dollars/ton, a weekly decrease of 0.79%. In the spot market, the supply of goods was limited, and holders held firm on prices. Downstream enterprises mainly made purchases based on rigid demand and preferred to buy directly from smelters [5] Industry News - In the week of September 12th, the average domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained unchanged at 350 yuan/metal ton compared with the previous week, while the average imported lead concentrate processing fee decreased by 10 dollars/dry ton to - 100 dollars/dry ton [8] Related Charts - The report includes multiple charts showing the trends of SHFE and LME lead prices, Shanghai - London ratio, inventory, lead ingot premium, price difference between primary and secondary lead, waste battery prices, secondary lead enterprise profits, lead ore processing fees, electrolytic lead and secondary refined lead production, lead ingot social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss [10][13][17][20][21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - The strengthening of the Fed's interest rate cut expectation provides positive support for the lead price. Meanwhile, the concentrated maintenance of primary lead and secondary lead smelters eases the supply - demand pressure, and capital inflows drive the lead price up. However, demand is difficult to improve significantly. With the resumption of production of some primary lead smelters under maintenance and the possible marginal increase in supply after the secondary lead profit is restored due to the rise in lead price, it is expected that the upward momentum of lead price is limited. Investors should be cautious about chasing the rise and beware of the risk of a high - level decline [4][8] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data - From September 5th to 12th, the SHFE lead price rose from 16,900 yuan/ton to 17,040 yuan/ton, an increase of 140 yuan/ton; the LME lead price rose from 1,988 dollars/ton to 2,019 dollars/ton, an increase of 31 dollars/ton; the Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 8.50 to 8.44, a decrease of 0.06; the SHFE inventory decreased from 66,834 tons to 66,561 tons, a decrease of 273 tons; the LME inventory decreased from 248,200 tons to 229,575 tons, a decrease of 18,625 tons; the social inventory increased from 3.59 million tons to 3.94 million tons, an increase of 0.35 million tons; the spot premium remained at - 125 yuan/ton [5] 3.2 Market Review - Last week, the SHFE lead main contract PB2510 fluctuated narrowly in the first half - week and soared on Friday afternoon, closing at 17,040 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.83%. The LME lead price first declined and then rose, closing at 2,019 dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.56%. In the spot market, on September 12th, the lead prices in Shanghai and Jiangsu - Zhejiang markets were at a discount to the SHFE 2510 contract. Downstream enterprises mainly made long - term order purchases and were hesitant about high - priced goods [6] - As of September 12th, the LME weekly inventory was 248,200 tons, a weekly decrease of 18,625 tons; the SHFE inventory was 66,561 tons, a decrease of 273 tons from the previous week. As of September 11th, the SMM five - region social inventory was 6.7 million tons, a decrease of 600 tons from Monday and an increase of 900 tons from last Thursday. With the approaching of the current - month contract delivery, the inventory may increase again [7] 3.3 Industry News - In the week of September 12th, the average domestic lead concentrate processing fee was 350 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/metal ton from the previous week; the average imported lead concentrate processing fee was 90 dollars/dry ton, remaining unchanged from the previous week [9] 3.4 Related Charts - The report presents multiple charts, including those showing the SHFE and LME lead prices, Shanghai - London ratio, SHFE and LME inventories, 1 lead premium, LME lead premium, primary - secondary lead price difference, secondary lead enterprise profit, lead ore processing fee, electrolytic lead and secondary refined lead production, lead ingot social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss [11][14][18][22]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai lead futures was under pressure. The US economic data recovery, inflation concerns, and the Fed officials' suppression of interest - rate cut expectations led to a rebound in the US dollar, dragging down lead prices, but Powell's dovish speech at the Jackson Hole meeting improved interest - rate cut expectations and boosted lead prices [2][7][8]. - Fundamentally, the supply of lead concentrates remained tight, and the raw material inventory of electrolytic lead smelters in Henan and Hunan was low. Electrolytic lead showed a pattern of co - existence of reduction and resumption of production. The profit of secondary lead smelters was poor, and some reduced production due to losses. The battery consumption did not improve significantly, and the peak - season effect was insufficient [2][7][8]. - Overall, the interest - rate cut expectations improved, but the fundamentals were weak in both supply and demand. Supply was regionally tight, but consumption was lackluster, and inventories remained at a relatively high level. The LME inventory increase trend continued, putting pressure on lead prices. In the short term, lead prices are expected to remain volatile, and the inversion of refined and secondary lead prices provides some support [2][7][8]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 3.1 Transaction Data - From August 15th to August 22nd, the SHFE lead price decreased from 16,850 yuan/ton to 16,780 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan/ton; the LME lead price increased from 1,981 dollars/ton to 1,992 dollars/ton, an increase of 11 dollars/ton; the Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 8.51 to 8.42, a decrease of 0.08; the SHFE inventory decreased by 1,154 tons to 63,690 tons; the LME inventory increased by 11,950 tons to 273,050 tons; the social inventory increased by 0.35 million tons to 3.94 million tons; the spot premium remained at - 155 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Market Review - Last week, the main PB2509 contract of Shanghai lead futures continued to be under pressure and fluctuated narrowly, closing at 16,780 yuan/ton with a weekly decline of 0.42%. The LME lead price was weak due to the rising US dollar and inventory increase, but finally closed at 1,992 dollars/ton with a weekly increase of 0.56% [6]. - In the spot market, as of August 22nd, the prices of lead in Shanghai and Jiangsu - Zhejiang markets were at a discount to the SHFE 2509 contract. The downstream procurement enthusiasm was general, and the spot market trading was light [6]. - As of August 22nd, the LME weekly inventory was 273,050 tons, an increase of 11,950 tons; the SHFE inventory was 63,690 tons, a decrease of 1,154 tons. As of August 21st, the SMM five - region social inventory was 6.99 million tons, a decrease of 0.11 million tons from Monday and an increase of 0.19 million tons from the previous Thursday [7]. 3.3 Industry News - As of August 22nd, the average domestic lead concentrate processing fee was 400 yuan/metal degree, a decrease of 100 yuan/metal ton compared with the previous period; the average imported ore processing fee was - 90 dollars/dry ton, a decrease of 10 dollars/dry ton [9]. - In July, the import volume of lead concentrates was 122,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.59% and a year - on - year increase of 28.35%. The cumulative import volume from January to July was 793,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 30.68%. The export volume of refined lead and lead alloys in July was 4,199 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.04%, and the import volume of refined lead and lead products was 16,317 tons, a month - on - month increase of 42.1% [9]. 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides 14 related charts, including SHFE and LME lead prices, Shanghai - London ratio, inventory, lead ingot premium, price difference between primary and secondary lead, waste battery price, secondary lead enterprise profit, lead ore processing fee, electrolytic lead and secondary refined lead production, lead ingot social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss [10][13][15][18][19][21].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Market expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts are inconsistent, and market risk appetite lacks sustainability. The fundamentals continue to show a pattern of a slight increase in supply but lower-than-expected demand. High inventory levels put pressure on lead prices, while the relatively stable supply-demand gap at the cost end provides support. There are few new contradictions in the short term, and lead prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range, with the integer resistance level above remaining effective [4][9]. 3. Summary by Section Transaction Data | Contract | 8/8 | 8/15 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Lead | 16,845 | 16,850 | 5 | Yuan/ton | | LME Lead | 2,003.5 | 1,981 | -22.5 | US dollars/ton | | SHFE - LME Ratio | 8.41 | 8.51 | 0.10 | - | | SHFE Inventory | 62,334 | 64,844 | 2,510 | Tons | | LME Inventory | 268,375 | 261,100 | -7,275 | Tons | | Social Inventory | 3.59 | 3.94 | 0.35 | Ten thousand tons | | Spot Premium | -150 | -155 | -5 | Yuan/ton | [5] Market Review - The price of the main SHFE lead contract PB2509 declined under pressure last week. The price rebounded but was blocked by the integer resistance level and then fell, closing at 16,850 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.03%. LME lead first rose and then fell, closing at 1,981 US dollars/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.12% [6]. - In the spot market, as of August 15, the price of lead in the Shanghai and Jiangsu - Zhejiang markets showed a downward trend. The inventory of LME decreased, while the SHFE inventory and social inventory increased. The delivery of the current - month contract led to an increase in inventory [7]. Industry News - As of August 15, the average domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained unchanged, while the average import ore processing fee decreased by 15 US dollars/ton compared to the previous period [10]. - Some lead - smelting enterprises in Henan may face air - quality environmental protection emergency control from August 26 to September 3, which may restrict vehicle transportation [10]. Related Charts The report provides multiple charts, including SHFE and LME lead prices, SHFE - LME ratios, inventory levels, lead price premiums and discounts, price differences between primary and secondary lead, waste battery prices, secondary lead enterprise profits, lead ore processing fees, electrolytic lead and secondary refined lead production, lead ingot social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss [12][13][15][18][19][21][23][25].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai lead futures rebounded weakly. The market strengthened the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September, and China's import and export data in July were good, with stable economic growth and a slight increase in market risk appetite [3][6][7]. - Fundamentally, the improvement of the raw material side was not obvious. The processing fees of lead concentrates at home and abroad were under pressure, the supply - demand contradiction of waste batteries still existed, and the price was firm. However, downstream smelters were cautious in high - price purchases, and recyclers lacked confidence [3][6][7]. - In the smelting sector, the production of primary lead smelters was stable. Some smelters were under maintenance for a month in mid - and late August, and the supply in August was expected to increase slightly month - on - month. For secondary lead, the sewage inspection in Anhui affected local smelters, boosting the market sentiment and leading to a rebound in lead prices. Currently, smelters still had large losses, and unplanned production cuts were possible [3][6][7]. - On the demand side, the peak season was dull. In August, the impact of tariffs emerged, new export orders for batteries decreased, and due to high temperatures in many places, some battery enterprises took holidays, with limited production increase space [3][6][7]. - Overall, the rebound of interest rate cut expectations suppressed the US dollar, supporting lead prices. The sewage inspection in Anhui slightly disturbed the supply side and boosted market sentiment, but the impact was controllable. With stable electrolytic lead production, mediocre consumption, and high inventory pressure, the lead price rebound lacked sustainability. In the short term, lead prices were expected to fluctuate and consolidate, with resistance around 17,000 yuan [3][6][7]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Transaction Data - From July 18th to July 25th, the SHFE lead price rose from 16,735 yuan/ton to 16,845 yuan/ton, an increase of 110 yuan/ton; the LME lead price rose from 1,974 dollars/ton to 2,003.5 dollars/ton, an increase of 29.5 dollars/ton; the Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 8.48 to 8.41; the SHFE inventory decreased by 949 tons to 62,334 tons; the LME inventory decreased by 6,950 tons to 268,375 tons; the social inventory decreased by 0.18 million tons to 7.11 million tons; the spot premium remained at - 150 yuan/ton [4]. Market Review - Last week, the main PB2509 contract of Shanghai lead futures rebounded weakly, closing at 16,845 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 0.66%. LME lead stopped falling and rebounded, closing at 2,003.5 dollars/ton, a weekly increase of 1.49% [5]. - In the spot market as of August 8th, the prices of lead in Shanghai and Jiangsu - Zhejiang regions were at a discount to the SHFE 2509 contract. Recycled lead smelting enterprises tried to maintain prices, and the recycled refined lead was quoted at a premium of 0 - 50 yuan/ton to the SMM 1 lead average price [5]. - In terms of inventory, as of August 8th, the LME weekly inventory decreased by 6,950 tons to 268,375 tons, and the SHFE inventory decreased by 949 tons to 62,334 tons. As of August 7th, the SMM five - region social inventory decreased by 800 tons compared with Monday and 0.18 million tons compared with last Thursday. However, due to the approaching delivery of the current - month contract, there was a possibility of inventory stop - falling and rebound [6]. Industry News - As of August 8th, the average domestic lead concentrate processing fee was 500 yuan/metal degree, and the average import ore processing fee was - 60 dollars/dry ton, both remaining unchanged from the previous period [8]. - The sewage inspection in Anhui affected local secondary lead smelters. Some smelters stopped production and waited for further notice, while others maintained production [8]. Related Charts - The report provides 14 charts, including SHFE and LME lead prices, inventory, lead ingot premiums, spreads between primary and recycled lead, waste battery prices, recycled lead enterprise profits, lead ore processing fees, lead production, social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss [9][12][13][15].