Texas Instruments (TXN) 2025 Conference Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Texas Instruments (TXN) - **Event**: 2025 Conference - **Date**: June 04, 2025 Key Points Industry and Market Demand - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a broad recovery, indicating the beginning of a cyclical upturn, which Texas Instruments is well-prepared for due to prior investments in inventory and capital expenditures (CapEx) over the last four years [4][10][59] - The company has multiple phases in its capacity expansion plan, with significant CapEx required in the first two phases, while the third phase will focus on incremental capacity adjustments [5][6] Capacity and Revenue Projections - Texas Instruments anticipates potential revenue levels in 2026 ranging from $20 billion to $26 billion, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7% over four years [14][19] - The company is prepared for various revenue scenarios, indicating that even if revenue does not reach the highest projections, they will have excess capacity to meet future demands [16][17] Competitive Landscape - Texas Instruments maintains a competitive edge in the analog market, while the embedded business faces more competition with numerous established players [31][34] - The company is strategically positioned to cater to customers who prefer products not made in China or Taiwan, leveraging its manufacturing capabilities in the U.S. and partnerships with foundries outside the U.S. [36][30] Industrial and Automotive Trends - The industrial market is seeing a recovery driven by inventory replenishment and end-market demand, with Texas Instruments noting that industrial demand had been running 40% below peak levels but is now improving [41][52] - In the automotive sector, growth has moderated to low single digits, with expectations for continued growth in electric vehicles (EVs) despite recent slowdowns [54][56] Pricing and Capital Returns - Texas Instruments does not feel pressure to reduce prices despite inventory levels, as their inventory is long-lasting and not subject to fire sale conditions [65] - The company expects to return to a trend of higher buybacks as CapEx decreases and revenue increases, with a focus on maintaining and growing dividends [68][69] Additional Insights - The company is cautious about drawing conclusions from historical cycles due to the unique dynamics of the current market, emphasizing the importance of being prepared for various scenarios [12][50] - Texas Instruments has a robust internal system to manage inventory and production based on historical data and customer demand, which has improved from 150 days of inventory to 227 days [45][46] Conclusion Texas Instruments is strategically positioned to navigate the current semiconductor market recovery, with a focus on capacity expansion, competitive positioning, and prudent financial management. The company is optimistic about future revenue growth while maintaining a strong commitment to capital returns to shareholders.

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is nearing the end of a six-year capital expenditure (CapEx) cycle, which began in 2021, with significant investments aimed at expanding capacity in the U.S. [7][12] - The company reported a 13% growth in the first half of Q2, with expectations for continued acceleration in revenue growth [34][40] - The revenue opportunity supported by new investments could exceed $40 billion by 2030, depending on market demand [25][26] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has increased its exposure to high-growth markets, particularly industrial and automotive, from 40% in 2013 to around 70% in 2022 [10][11] - The company is focusing on embedded business, with new fabs designed to support high-speed analog and embedded products [15][23] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The industrial sector is showing broad recovery across all geographies and channels, with significant growth expected [40][41] - Automotive markets are recovering, particularly in China, driven by increased electric vehicle (EV) adoption [42][66] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is strategically investing in U.S. manufacturing to ensure geopolitical reliability and to better support customers [12][12] - The focus is on transitioning from older fabs to more efficient 300mm wafer fabs, which will significantly reduce costs and improve margins [102][104] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the recovery of the semiconductor market, particularly in industrial and automotive sectors, and emphasized the importance of being prepared for demand surges [34][39] - The company is well-positioned to navigate geopolitical tensions and potential decoupling from China, viewing it as an opportunity rather than a risk [72][74] Other Important Information - The company is actively working on requalifying parts for different manufacturing locations to mitigate potential tariff impacts [91][92] - Management highlighted the importance of maintaining a diverse manufacturing footprint to support customer needs and market demands [12][66] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the current state of the semiconductor market recovery? - Management noted a broad recovery in the industrial sector and a positive outlook for automotive markets, particularly in China, where EV adoption is increasing [39][42] Question: How is the company managing inventory levels? - The company is deliberately holding higher inventory levels to prepare for demand fluctuations and to avoid capacity constraints experienced in previous cycles [46][52] Question: What are the implications of tariffs and geopolitical tensions? - Management indicated that current tariffs have not significantly impacted operations, and the company is prepared for potential changes in the geopolitical landscape [62][64]