证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 06 月 03 日 猪肉夏粮收获三成，猪价震荡运行 [Table_Title2] 农林牧渔行业周报第 18 期 [Table_Summary] 本周观点: 种植产业链：据农业农村部，截至 5 月 30 日 17 时，全国已收 获夏粮小麦面积1.29亿亩，收获进度已过三成。湖北、四川及 华南地区麦收圆满收官，安徽过八成，河南过六成，陕西过两 成，江苏近一成半。5 月 30 日开始大范围降雨，本轮降雨有利 于土壤墒情改善，为机播创造良好条件，同时，各地加快抢收 进度，为腾茬机播争取了时间、赢得了主动。下一步，农业农 村部将密切跟踪天气变化，组织有关省份认真抓好麦收工作和 应急抢收抢烘准备，加快推进成熟小麦收晒，切实准备应对天 气变化，努力保障夏粮适收快收、颗粒归仓。同时强化收种衔 接，认真落实机械化措施促进大面积单产提升工作，努力提高 机械化播栽质量效率，为全年粮食丰产丰收打好基础。在粮食 安全背景下，转基因技术在提升单产方面具有革命性作用，我 们判断转基因商业化进程将继续扩面提速，以通过提升单产从 根本上提升关键品种自给率，同时，农业农村部强调 ...

Group 1 - Sichuan province is currently in the peak period of agricultural irrigation, with rice planting area reaching 21.4 million acres, accounting for nearly 80% of the planned area of 27.79 million acres as of the end of May [1] - The water supply from irrigation projects has reached 3.5 billion cubic meters, supporting 16.29 million acres of rice planting area [1] - Some regions in the province are experiencing prolonged high temperatures and drought, raising concerns about the smooth planting of spring crops [1] Group 2 - In Shishi Village, the establishment of a pipeline irrigation system has significantly improved agricultural water efficiency, allowing for the expansion of rice planting area by 260 acres [2] - The village's rice planting area is expected to be fully planted by mid-June, with over 1,600 acres of rice being cultivated [2] Group 3 - Drought conditions are developing in several areas, including Nanchong, Guangyuan, Bazhong, Dazhou, and parts of southern Panzhihua, leading to increased agricultural water demand [3] - The irrigation management center has implemented a water supply strategy prioritizing larger grain producers to meet their water needs [3][4] Group 4 - The irrigation strategy includes a principle of "first far, then near; first difficult, then easy," ensuring equitable water distribution among users [4] - Measures such as extending channels and constructing new pipelines are being taken to supply water to areas facing water shortages [4] Group 5 - In Yanting County, the water supply has allowed for a significant increase in rice planting area, with all 1,100 acres of land now planted due to sufficient water supply [5] - The irrigation project has improved water delivery systems, alleviating water scarcity issues in historically drought-prone areas [5][6] Group 6 - The Wuyin irrigation district has completed spring irrigation supply of 86 million cubic meters, achieving over 800,000 acres of fully planted rice, with progress expected to reach completion by June 15 [6]

Group 1 - The government-backed interest subsidy policy has provided confidence to local farmers, enabling them to expand their businesses, as illustrated by a farmer in Jurong City who successfully doubled her herbal planting area after receiving a loan of 230,000 yuan [1] - The Jurong City Human Resources and Social Security Department has effectively implemented the "Fumin Entrepreneurship Guarantee Loan" policy, increasing loan limits and optimizing the application process to alleviate the financial burden on small businesses and individual entrepreneurs [2] - The maximum personal entrepreneurship guarantee loan limit has been set at 300,000 yuan, with an average loan amount increased from 120,000 yuan to 200,000 yuan, supporting emerging industries and rural revitalization projects [2] Group 2 - The application process for loans has been simplified, allowing applicants to submit materials through both online and offline channels, which enhances service efficiency [3] - In 2023, Jurong City issued 67 Fumin Entrepreneurship Guarantee Loans totaling 10.33 million yuan, creating 129 jobs [3] - The program encourages "no repayment renewal loans" for reputable entrepreneurs, allowing banks to directly handle renewals to prevent cash flow disruptions [3]

Core Viewpoint - Yulin is transforming from a "desert city" to an important "ecological granary" in Shaanxi by developing efficient drought-resistant water-saving agriculture, focusing on technological advancements in water management and irrigation systems [1][4]. Group 1: Agricultural Development - In 2023, Yulin's grain planting area reached 10.99 million mu, ranking first in Shaanxi [1]. - By 2024, the grain yield in Yulin's efficient drought-resistant water-saving agricultural project area is expected to exceed 400 kg per mu [1]. - Yulin plans to implement 597,300 mu of new efficient drought-resistant water-saving agriculture this year [1]. Group 2: Water Management Strategies - Yulin has introduced a five-year action plan to develop efficient drought-resistant water-saving agriculture, focusing on improving water resource utilization efficiency through various measures [4]. - The "four-in-one" drip irrigation project in Yangshikeng Village has been implemented to address water scarcity, combining water storage, solar-powered water lifting, soft water storage, and drip irrigation [5][6]. - The project has resulted in a 30% water saving per mu in Yangshikeng Village, significantly enhancing water resource utilization efficiency [6]. Group 3: Technological Innovations - Yulin is advancing high-standard farmland construction and applying technologies such as membrane drip irrigation and integrated water and fertilizer systems to improve irrigation efficiency [9]. - As of now, a total of 20,000 mu of land has been equipped with intelligent water-saving devices, allowing for precise control of irrigation and fertilization based on soil moisture and crop needs [10]. - The efficient drought-resistant water-saving agricultural project area has achieved an average water saving of 30% and fertilizer saving of 20%, laying a foundation for the national grain production enhancement initiative [10]. Group 4: Economic Impact - The introduction of water-saving technologies has improved corn yield and quality, with local farmers benefiting from using homegrown corn as feed for livestock, leading to higher profits [11][12]. - In Jingbian County, a 10,000 mu facility vegetable base has been established, with products sold nationwide, showcasing the economic benefits of water-saving irrigation technology [13]. - Yulin plans to add 597,300 mu of efficient drought-resistant water-saving agriculture this year, which is expected to save 25 million cubic meters of water and 2,000 tons of fertilizer annually [13].

"以前这地种啥也不长，浇一次水盐分又泛上来，现在暗管排盐、节水灌溉，小麦亩产多了200斤。"在 山东省滨州市沾化区下河乡南韩村的高标准农田项目区，村民韩洪勇告诉记者，他脚下的千亩农田曾是 轻中度盐碱地，如今变为全区粮食增产的"标杆田"。这一转变，正是下河乡创新推进高标准农田建设的 生动实践。 近年来，山东高质量推进高标准农田建设，推动实现粮食增产提质。目前，山东已累计建成高标准农田 7759万亩，发展高效节水灌溉5359万亩，为粮食总产量连续4年稳定在1100亿斤以上夯实了基底。 强化基础设施建设 在潍坊昌邑市青阜农业综合体的大数据智控中心，工作人员刘朋来轻点鼠标，显示屏上迅速显示出小麦 的墒情、苗情，同时温湿度、光照指数、土地养分水分、农作物长势等也在短时间内完成收集。安装在 大田里的土壤信息采集系统、智慧农业管理平台、生态农业实时监控等系统，综合运用5G、物联网、 大数据等技术手段，构建起立体化监测监管体系。 "这块盐碱地是2021年开发成功的高标准农田，经过整平、地力培肥等改造，1亩地能多收100多斤粮 食。"河口区六合街道薄家嘴村党支部书记陈召朋说。河口区地处黄河入海口，盐碱地多达69.72万亩。 这 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the successful wheat harvest in Henan province, emphasizing the effective agricultural practices and government support that have led to increased yields and efficient harvesting operations [1][3][4]. Group 1: Wheat Harvesting in Henan - In Kaifeng's Qixian County, the average yield per mu is expected to reach 473.04 kg, with a total production of 460,600 tons, surpassing previous years' performance [1]. - Farmers in Qixian County have reported yields of 900 to 1,000 jin per mu, attributed to guidance from agricultural technicians throughout the growing season [1]. - The overall wheat planting area in Nanyang is 11 million mu, with over 20,000 harvesting machines deployed for efficient collection [2]. Group 2: Agricultural Practices and Technology - The implementation of advanced agricultural techniques, such as the use of superior seed varieties and precise water and fertilizer management, has significantly improved wheat resilience and yield structure [1][3]. - The "Henan Agricultural Machinery Cloud" platform connects over 68,000 harvesting machines, facilitating precise matching of operational needs and equipment distribution [4]. Group 3: Government Support and Infrastructure - The Henan provincial government prioritizes summer grain production, organizing meetings to assess conditions and ensure effective disaster response strategies [3]. - Traffic management measures have been enhanced to accommodate the increased flow of harvesting vehicles during the peak season, ensuring efficient transportation [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the progress and challenges in consolidating poverty alleviation results and promoting rural revitalization in Changhanbai Village, highlighting the importance of effective policies and community engagement in preventing poverty recurrence and ensuring sustainable development [1][8]. Poverty Alleviation and Monitoring Systems - The village has established a robust "anti-poverty dam" policy framework and an efficient monitoring and support system to prevent large-scale poverty recurrence [3][8]. - Medical insurance coverage in the village is nearly universal, with a 99% participation rate, and significant reimbursement rates for various medical expenses, which has greatly reduced the risk of poverty due to health issues [4][8]. - Educational support policies are in place to prevent poverty due to education costs, including free education and scholarships for students [5]. Agricultural and Economic Development - The village has transitioned to high-standard farmland and implemented water-saving irrigation systems, enhancing agricultural productivity [9]. - There is a focus on order-based planting to mitigate price volatility and ensure stable income for farmers, with local government initiatives to facilitate sales channels [10][11]. - The establishment of processing facilities and partnerships with agricultural companies aims to enhance the value chain and stabilize farmers' incomes [11]. Talent and Community Engagement - The village faces challenges of population decline and aging, with a significant reduction in the younger population, necessitating strategies to attract and retain talent [14][17]. - Strengthening local leadership and community organization is crucial for driving development, with efforts to recruit capable individuals and enhance the effectiveness of local governance [15][16]. - The article emphasizes the need for policy support to attract young talent and improve living conditions in rural areas to foster sustainable development [17].

Weather Characteristics and Agricultural Impact Analysis - This week (May 25-31, 2025), northern agricultural regions experienced temperatures close to or 1-2°C higher than the historical average, with some areas in the northeast and northwest exceeding 4°C above average [2] - Southern agricultural regions saw temperatures near or 1-2°C below the historical average, with certain areas in Jiangnan, South China, Yunnan, and southern Guizhou being 2-4°C lower [2] - Precipitation in northern regions ranged from 10-50 mm, while parts of Jiangnan, North China, and Yunnan experienced 50-100 mm, and some areas received 100-250 mm, significantly above the historical average [2] - Sunshine hours were generally close to historical averages, with some areas in northeastern Jiangnan and eastern Heilongjiang seeing increases of 30-80% [2][7] Agricultural Production Impact Analysis - In the northeast, favorable light and heat conditions benefited the growth of dryland crops and rice transplanting [8] - The northern winter wheat region had predominantly sunny weather, facilitating the harvesting of mature winter wheat, although rain from May 30 to June 1 may temporarily hinder harvesting in some areas [8] - In the southern regions, heavy rainfall led to flooding in low-lying fields, affecting crops like lychee and mango, while persistent rain hindered crop growth and pest monitoring [9] Future Weather Impact Forecast and Recommendations - The next ten days are expected to have suitable conditions for the growth of corn and soybeans in the northeast, while heavy rainfall in parts of Heilongjiang may cause temporary flooding [10] - Northern regions will experience mostly sunny weather, which is beneficial for harvesting winter wheat and planting summer corn, but high temperatures (35-38°C) from June 5-7 may disrupt wheat maturation [10] - Recommendations include managing dryland crops and water levels in rice fields, ensuring timely harvesting and planting, and maintaining agricultural water infrastructure in southern regions to mitigate flooding risks [11]

中新网银川6月1日电 (记者李佩珊)记者1日从宁夏农业农村厅获悉，截至5月31日，宁夏夏粮播种已达 774.56万亩，进度82.84%。其中，籽粒玉米已播600.16万亩，超计划任务0.16万亩；水稻已播38.22万 亩，超计划任务1.22万亩；马铃薯已播79.34万亩，进度72.13%；杂粮已播31.89万亩，进度19.56%；大 豆已播24.95万亩，进度99.8%。 （文章来源：中国新闻网） 4月以来，宁夏中南部山区气温偏高、降水偏少，大风沙尘天气频发，土壤失墒加快，造成部分县(区) 冬小麦不同程度受旱，马铃薯、杂粮、大豆等作物延迟播种，对保障粮食安全造成不利影响。为此，宁 夏农业农村厅强化部门联动，积极争取救灾资金，加密会商研判，迅速成立7个抗旱减灾技术指导组下 沉一线，分类施策落实农艺抗旱措施，全力推进秋粮作物抢墒播种加快播种进度。 5月21日前后，宁夏进行人工降雨缓解旱情，干旱较为严重的固原各地喜降中雨。此次降雨天气范围 广、量级大，为农作物生长提供关键水分，让农作物在干旱后恢复了生机。 迎来降雨后，固原市农业农村局向各地下发抢墒播种紧急通知，各地紧急开展中早熟玉米、马铃薯、大 豆、糜子、荞麦、芸 ...

中央纪委国家监委网站 薛鹏 清晨6点刚过，一阵急促的电话铃声响起："薛记者，我就在地里了，位置发给你手机了，你随时过来我 都在。"每天一大早就到地里工作，是徐淙祥保持了几十年的习惯，除了参加重要会议外他总是日复一 日"泡"在麦田里。他把科学种粮落实到每个环节，将精耕细作发挥到极致，成为远近闻名的种粮大户。 生于土地、长于土地，农民群众深知土地的珍贵，也用汗水在土地里浇灌出幸福的花儿。走进夏收时节 的小麦主产区，眼前都是金灿灿的场景：田野里，翻滚的麦浪一眼望不到头，在蓝天白云的衬托下好似 金黄色的绸缎；粮库旁，大型农业机械络绎不绝，饱满的麦粒通过管道如金色瀑布般倾泻成一座"麦 山"；道路边、院子里、门洞下，平坦的空地都撒满了农户晾晒的麦粒，在大地铺上了一块块金色地 毯。 "国家政策好，对农业投入真大。"采访中，农机手张培亮在谈起购买收割机享受国家补贴时，不由得发 出这样的感慨。他夏收一季的收入近2万元，而农机补贴就达到了3.7万元，这笔钱对他来说无疑非常重 要。近几年，国家强农惠农富农的政策越来越好：耕地地力保护补贴、农机购置与应用补贴、小麦"一 喷三防"补助、大豆玉米带状复合种植补助……一系列到人到户的农业补 ...