AI Development & Strategy - Microsoft's AI strategy shifts towards AI self-sufficiency [1] - Microsoft is pushing towards "humanist superintelligence" [1] - The company is forming a new superintelligence team [1] - The advancements in power, data, and memory are crucial for AI progress [1] Technological Aspects - Memory plays an important role in AI [1] - LLMs (Large Language Models) are significant in the path towards superintelligence [1] - Power constraints are a key consideration in AI development [1] - Data is crucial for AI development [1] Economic & Future Trends - The economics of frontier models are facing price pressure and commoditization [1] - The vision includes cheap and abundant intelligence [1]

Core Viewpoint - The conclusion of the longest government shutdown in U.S. history is expected to provide a temporary boost to stock prices, but it will not resolve underlying issues affecting the market, such as high valuations and concerns over artificial intelligence investments [2][4][10]. Market Reaction - U.S. stocks are anticipated to recover as the government shutdown nears an end, with investors looking for bargains following a significant tech selloff, particularly in the Nasdaq Composite, which fell nearly 3% last week [5][6]. - The shutdown was seen as a contributing factor to recent market volatility, but it is not expected to address all market challenges [4][6]. Economic Indicators - The reopening of the government could facilitate the release of economic data, which may influence the Federal Reserve's decisions regarding interest rates, with a 65% probability of a rate cut in December [7][8]. - The market is currently focused on the fiscal trajectory of the U.S., especially with national debt exceeding $37 trillion and concerns about the fiscal deficit [9]. AI Investment Sentiment - Investor sentiment surrounding artificial intelligence remains a critical issue, as it has driven significant market gains, contributing to approximately 45% of the S&P 500's $613 billion in third-quarter earnings [10]. - Despite recent selloffs, the core AI investment thesis is believed to remain intact, with investors largely dismissing political uncertainties [11].

Core Viewpoint - Following a turbulent week for US tech stocks, some investors are viewing recent pullbacks as an opportunity to purchase high-growth names at a discount [1] Group 1 - Investors are considering the recent declines in tech stocks as a buying opportunity [1] - Eddie Ghabour, managing partner at Key Advisors Wealth, suggests that the current market conditions may favor those looking for high-growth investments [1]

Market Overview - Global markets experienced a surge as the US Senate took steps to end the longest government shutdown in history, boosting risk sentiment across various asset classes including equities, commodities, and cryptocurrencies [3][4]. - The Senate's approval of a compromise bill to reopen the federal government and fund it through the end of January alleviated investor anxiety that had impacted markets in recent weeks [4][5]. Stock Market Reaction - European stocks led the global rebound, with the Stoxx Europe 600 rising by 1.4% and Germany's Dax climbing 1.8%, indicating broad relief across sectors sensitive to economic disruptions [6][7]. - US equity futures also strengthened, with S&P 500 futures gaining 1% and Nasdaq 100 futures advancing 1.5%, signaling a strong opening for Wall Street [7]. Sector Performance - Technology stocks rebounded significantly, with Nvidia up 3.3%, Tesla gaining 2.4%, and Alphabet rising 2.2% in pre-market trading, as investors welcomed the prospect of government reopening [8]. - The airline sector, which faced challenges due to the shutdown, saw shares rise in pre-market trading as fears of staffing shortages eased with the expected resumption of government funding [11][12]. Commodity and Cryptocurrency Markets - Gold prices increased by 2% to $4,080 per troy ounce, reflecting a positive sentiment as investors anticipated clearer economic data following the government reopening [13]. - Bitcoin also saw a rally, climbing 3% to around $106,000, indicating a recovery in the cryptocurrency market [14].

Core Insights - South Korea's banks are collaborating with major tech firms like Samsung, Kakao, and Naver to launch the first regulated won-backed stablecoins, aiming to lead in Asia's stablecoin market [1][2] - The Financial Services Commission (FSC) plans to introduce a comprehensive stablecoin bill to the National Assembly by the end of 2025, which would legalize won-backed stablecoins and allow banks to issue them with private partners [3][4] - The stablecoin bill will consolidate six existing parliamentary proposals into a unified framework, promoting regulated stablecoins as part of a broader agenda to enhance Korea's crypto competitiveness [4] Industry Developments - Major South Korean banks, including KB, Shinhan, Hana, and Woori, are forming partnerships with tech giants to prepare for upcoming stablecoin regulations [2][6] - KB Kookmin Bank has filed over 17 trademarks for a "KB KRW" stablecoin and established a dedicated division for stablecoin development [5] - Shinhan Financial Group is testing a won-backed coin on its delivery app and exploring international payments through its subsidiaries in Japan and Vietnam [7] - Hana Financial Group has initiated a Digital Asset Task Force to coordinate efforts across its affiliates [7] - Woori Financial Group is collaborating with Samsung Electronics on the Samsung Wallet, integrating its banking services into the platform [7]

Summary of J.P. Morgan Sector Review Industry Overview - The report discusses the current state of the investment landscape, particularly focusing on the potential for a recession and its impact on various sectors. It highlights the fatigue investors are experiencing due to multiple economic scares over the past few years, including the energy crisis, regional banking crisis, and trade wars [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments Economic Sentiment - Investors are exhibiting "recession exhaustion" after several economic scares that did not lead to downturns, leading to a reluctance to trade based on economic risks [1]. - The report suggests that spreads will likely remain tight and low until a confirmed recession is evident [1]. Sector Recommendations - **Non-Cyclicals vs. Cyclicals**: The preference for Non-Cyclicals over Cyclicals has been removed, with downgrades for IG Healthcare and IG Utilities to Neutral from Overweight. Conversely, IG Retail has been upgraded to Neutral due to signs of demand recovery in luxury goods [2]. - **Cyclicals**: Caution remains in certain cyclical sectors, particularly European manufacturing, which faces high energy costs and competition from low-cost Chinese producers. Underweight positions are maintained in IG/HY Chemicals and HY Autos due to oversupply and refinancing risks, respectively [3]. Financials vs. Non-Financials - A preference for Financials over Non-Financials is maintained, with Overweights in IG Bank Preferred, IG Bank T2, and IG Insurance Senior/Subordinated. The stability of net interest income and solid asset quality are highlighted as positive factors [4][9]. Performance Metrics - The report includes performance metrics for various sectors, indicating that Overweights in Corporate Hybrids and Insurance Subordinated have performed well, while underweights in Chemicals and Consumer Products have lagged [20][21][22]. Specific Sector Insights - **Building Materials**: Strong performance driven by pricing power and potential catalysts from German infrastructure spending [10]. - **Telecoms**: Anticipation of consolidation in the European Telecoms market, with a positive outlook due to regulatory shifts and increased capital expenditure [12]. - **Paper & Packaging**: Demand remains strong, particularly for metal packaging, driven by sustainability trends [13]. - **Autos**: Structural headwinds from Chinese competition and refinancing risks are significant concerns [14]. - **Consumer Products**: A shift towards private-label alternatives is noted, impacting branded goods negatively [15]. - **Chemicals**: Demand remains cyclically depressed, with overcapacity and high energy costs affecting competitiveness [16]. - **Technology**: Increased capital allocation in data centers is expected, with significant planned capex from major tech firms [17]. Conclusion - The report emphasizes a cautious yet strategic approach to sector allocation, with a focus on financial stability and emerging opportunities in specific sectors while remaining wary of cyclical risks and structural challenges in others [1][4][20].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a bearish sentiment towards the equity market, particularly highlighting record outflows from single stocks and significant selling by institutional clients [10][20]. Core Insights - Institutional clients were the largest net sellers of US equities, with record outflows of $10.9 billion from single stocks, marking the largest since November 2022 [10][20]. - The report notes that while institutional clients sold off large and mid-cap stocks, they continued to buy small-cap stocks for the second consecutive week [10]. - There were significant outflows from the Technology and Financials sectors, with Technology experiencing the largest outflows as a percentage of its market cap since July 2023 [10][20]. - Despite the outflows in single stocks, there were inflows into equity ETFs, totaling $0.9 billion, indicating a shift in investment strategy among clients [10][20]. Summary by Sections Client Flows - Institutional clients led the selling, with their outflows being the second largest ever recorded, while hedge funds and private clients were net buyers [10][20]. - Cumulative flows by client type show that hedge funds and institutional clients have been net sellers, contrasting with private clients who have been net buyers [8][10]. Sector Performance - The Technology sector saw historic outflows, with a record percentage drop in market cap, while Financials also faced significant selling pressure [10][20]. - Communication Services and Consumer Staples were the only sectors to see inflows, with Consumer Staples experiencing a four-week buying streak [10][20]. Size Segments - Large-cap stocks were the primary focus of selling, with small and micro-cap stocks being the only size segment to see inflows last week [10][25]. - The report highlights a broad-based trend of outflows from large and mid-cap stocks, while small-cap stocks attracted investment [10][25]. ETF Trends - Clients have shown a preference for equity ETFs, with inflows across various styles and sectors, particularly favoring Value over Growth for the seventh consecutive week [10][20]. - The report indicates that clients bought ETFs in nine out of eleven sectors, despite the extreme outflows from single stocks in the Technology sector [10][20].

Group 1: Market Performance - U.S. stock funds recorded a 0.9% increase in October, contributing to a year-to-date gain of 12% [3][7] - The strong performance is primarily driven by large-cap funds, particularly in the technology sector, with major companies like Nvidia, Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Microsoft leading the surge [3][7] Group 2: Geopolitical Developments - Gaza City is experiencing a complete communications blackout, impacting emergency services and aid operations due to the targeting of main network routes [4][7] - Belgium has received urgent military assistance from France, Germany, and Britain to address suspicious drone activity over its military bases, highlighting rising security concerns in Europe [5][7] Group 3: Political Commentary - Former President Trump criticized Democrats for initiating a government shutdown, attributing it to their efforts to maintain ObamaCare subsidies, which he described as detrimental to Americans [6][7]

Group 1: Elon Musk's Pay Package - Tesla Inc. investors approved CEO Elon Musk's trillion-dollar pay package with a 75% approval rate, which was praised by industry leaders like Michael Dell as a significant endorsement from shareholders [2]. Group 2: Ford's F-150 Lightning EV Pickup Truck - Ford Motor Co. is considering discontinuing the production of its F-150 Lightning EV Pickup truck due to low demand, despite it being a best-seller. No final decision has been made yet [3]. Group 3: Vehicle Recalls - Toyota Motor Corp. has recalled over 1,024,407 units of various 2022-2026 models in the U.S. due to a software issue affecting the rearview camera [3]. - Stellantis NV has issued a recall for over 320,065 units of the 2022-2026 Grand Cherokee 4Xe and 2020-2025 Jeep Wrangler 4Xe vehicles due to a fire risk [5]. Group 4: Baidu's Apollo Go - Baidu Inc.'s Apollo Go Robotaxi has achieved the same milestone as Waymo, reaching 250,000 rides per week, and has driven over 140 million driverless miles to date [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The recommended core allocation order for November is A-shares > US stocks > Gold > Convertible bonds > Chinese bonds > US bonds [1]. - Event shocks are the core clues for global large - scale asset trading. The Sino - US trade friction has temporarily ended, but the game between expected and actual negotiation results may continue. The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP in October, but internal differences among Fed officials on the subsequent monetary policy path exceed market expectations. The lack of economic data due to the US government shutdown and the dilemma of balancing inflation and the labor market pose a decision - making dilemma for the Fed. The market's continuous pre - emptive trading on interest rate cuts since August has led to a divergence in interest rate cut expectations, which may trigger adjustments in interest - rate - sensitive assets such as US bonds and gold, and these adjustments may mean more cost - effective allocation opportunities [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Macro Trading Main Line - **Sino - US Trade Friction Repeated**: The Sino - US trade friction heated up due to disputes over ship charging policies and rare earth export control policies. After a series of confrontations, both sides released signals of easing. The Sino - US leaders' meeting on October 30 led to the suspension of relevant export control and investigation measures for one year, and the cancellation of a 10% fentanyl tariff. The global risk - aversion sentiment first rose and then fell, affecting large - scale asset prices. Understanding market expectations is the key to grasping event - shock market trends [11][12][13]. - **Fed's Interest Rate Cut Expectation Changes**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP as expected on October 30, but there was a rare three - way divergence in voting. Powell indicated that a December interest rate cut is not certain. The lack of major economic data due to the US government shutdown makes the Fed's decision - making difficult. The market's relatively consistent expectation of interest rate cuts has begun to show divergence, which is reflected in the reversal of the US bond yield and the adjustment of gold prices. The end time of the US government shutdown is a key factor affecting the December interest rate cut decision, and the divergence may mean better trading opportunities [24][25][28]. 3.2 Monthly Asset Performance Review - **Equity**: In October, Japanese stocks were the strongest, and Hong Kong stocks were the weakest, with the overall performance being Japanese stocks > US stocks > A - shares > Hong Kong stocks. A - shares: The Shanghai Composite Index broke through 4000 points in October but faced difficulties in further short - term breakthroughs. The small - cap stocks performed well, and the market embraced dividend - low - volatility sectors while technology - growth sectors faced pressure. US stocks: They were mixed, but technology stocks showed strong momentum, with a short - term inflection point after the release of technology stocks' third - quarter reports and the Fed's FOMC meeting. Japanese stocks: The Nikkei 225 index rose 16.64% in October, driven by factors such as postponed interest rate hikes, "Takamachi Sanae trading" expectations, and the depreciation of the yen. Hong Kong stocks: They rose and then retreated, and the Hang Seng Technology Index significantly underperformed A - share technology stocks [35][40][43]. - **Bonds**: Except for Japanese bonds, the yields of major national government bonds in the world declined to varying degrees in October. Chinese bonds: The yield fluctuated and strengthened, mainly affected by stock market adjustments, Sino - US tariff games, and the central bank's resumption of buying and selling government bonds. US bonds: The yield first declined and then rose, with the US government's credit crisis, Sino - US friction, and the game on the December interest rate cut expectation as key variables. Japanese bonds: They weakened slightly after the "Takamachi Sanae trading" in October, with the expectations of loose fiscal and monetary policies offsetting each other, and the government bond curve first steepened and then flattened [56][63][73]. - **Commodities**: Precious metals such as gold and silver first rose and then significantly adjusted in October, driven by factors such as cooling sentiment, over - valuation, and the rebound of the US dollar index. The prices of black - series commodities and new - energy materials showed limited upward momentum. Black - series commodities: Rebar prices remained low due to weak real estate and infrastructure, while coking coal and coke rose slightly due to anti - involution policies. New - energy materials: The prices of lithium carbonate and polysilicon fluctuated significantly with changes in expectations of anti - involution policies [75][86]. - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index strengthened in October, and the US dollar and US bonds continued to deviate. The strengthening of the US dollar index was mainly due to the weakening of overseas currencies such as the euro and the yen. The RMB continued to appreciate slightly in October, affected by factors such as the narrowing of the Sino - US interest rate spread, better - than - expected export data, and strong stock index performance [89][93]. 3.3 Monthly Macro Events Overview - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China was successfully held from October 20 to 23, 2025, and the "Proposal of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development" was officially announced on October 28, providing a direction for future five - year development [101]. - Takamachi Sanae was elected as the Prime Minister of Japan on October 21. The "Takamachi Sanae trading" heated up, driving the Japanese stock market to rise continuously in October, with the Nikkei 225 index rising 16.64% in a single month, while the yen exchange rate was significantly under pressure [102]. - Global major central banks held interest rate meetings in the last week of October. The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP as expected, but there was a large divergence among officials on the December interest rate cut decision. The Bank of Japan maintained the benchmark interest rate at 0.5% for the sixth consecutive time, and two policy committee members opposed it. The European Central Bank also remained on hold for the third consecutive time, maintaining the deposit facility rate, main refinancing rate, and lending facility rate unchanged [104][106][107].