晚点财经 . 用框架思维分析上市公司的增长逻辑与投资价值。 周期底部，现金为王。会养猪的牧原，仍受限于债务和周期的 "现金消耗战"。 文 丨 胡昊 1 月 16 日，全球最大养猪企业——牧原股份通过港交所聆讯，这家涉足猪饲料、育种、养殖、以及屠 宰肉食的生猪全产业链条公司将很快登陆港股市场，市场预期其此次募资规模约在 15 亿美元。 长期以来，市场关注牧原的重点在于，过去推动其实现规模超额增长的债务的动态运行情况。 以下文章来源于晚点财经 ，作者晚点团队 根据牧原 2025 前三季度的数据，其已经提前完成了 2025 年缩减百亿元债务的公司目标。 截止 2025Q3 牧原的流动负债和非流动负债分别为 768 亿元和 235 亿元，相对 2024 年底的 855 亿元 和 246 亿元分别降低了 87 亿元和 11 亿元；此外，牧原已于该年 10 月支付了 50 亿元的应付股利， 这意味着 2025 年整体的债务缩减规模很可能会超预期。 尽管牧原实现了债务缩表的阶段性目标，但其债务去化的本质是用当期的现金（更准确的说是用经营 活动所得现金）来偿还之前的负债，那么我们就需要进一步关注其经营活动现金流的运行动态及发 ...

1月初以来，农药化工板块持续回暖，开启周期修复行情；农业另一子板块生猪养殖却持续回调，短期 或已充分反应业绩悲观预期。资金连续两日逆势净流入农业ETF华夏（516810.SH），或逢低布局修复 行情，以及博弈2月重要政策预期。 东方证券表示，2026年农业是拐点向上的年份，养殖、种植将依次发力，带来板块趋势上行，建议重点 关注。尤其是生猪养殖板块，优质公司持续盈利和分红率提升依然是推动板块长期业绩和估值提升的核 心驱动；近期政策与市场合力推动生猪养殖行业产能去化，助力未来板块业绩长期提升。 农业ETF华夏（516810.SH）被动跟踪中证农业主题指数，农林牧渔+基础化工含量93.64%，前十大权 重股包括牧原股份、温氏股份、海大集团、藏格矿业、盐湖股份、亚钾国际等，牧原股份+温氏股份合 计权重占比近25%。 消息面上，据新浪报道，养殖龙头公司牧原股份传最快2月香港上市。业绩方面，牧原股份2025年业绩 预告显示，第四季度业绩预计中值实现盈利，成本降幅领先行业，体现龙头公司穿越周期的韧性； ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives individual outlooks for different agricultural products: - Oils and fats: Bullish with oscillations [8] - Protein meal: Sideways movement [11] - Corn/starch: Sideways movement [14] - Hogs: Bearish with oscillations [16] - Natural rubber: Sideways movement within a range [20] - Synthetic rubber: Bullish with oscillations after adjustment [22] - Cotton: Bullish with oscillations [23] - Sugar: Bearish with oscillations [24] - Pulp: Bearish with oscillations [25] - Offset paper: Bearish with oscillations [27] - Logs: Sideways movement [28] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the supply, demand, and market trends of various agricultural products. It points out that the hog market is under pressure due to oversupply in the short - to - medium term but may improve in the second half of 2026. Oils and fats are supported by factors such as palm oil production decline and export increase. Protein meal is affected by overseas supply and domestic inventory. Corn and starch markets are in a tight balance. Other products also have their own supply - demand characteristics and market trends [16][8][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **View**: Bullish with oscillations. The overall trend of vegetable oils is bullish due to factors like the decline in Malaysian palm oil production and the increase in exports. The market is also affected by factors such as Trump's tariff remarks on canola and the expected bio - diesel policy in the US [8]. - **Logic**: In January 2026, Malaysian palm oil production decreased, while exports increased. The Canadian canola supply and demand situation has changed, and the US bio - diesel policy provides emotional support. The supply of soybeans and canola is relatively abundant, and palm oil is about to enter the production - reduction season with a de - stocking trend [8]. - **Outlook**: Bullish with oscillations. It is recommended to consider buying hedging after a pullback and a long - palm oil short - canola oil arbitrage strategy [9]. 3.2 Protein Meal - **View**: Sideways movement. The international soybean trade premium has increased, and the domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are relatively high [11]. - **Logic**: Brazil's soybean harvest progress is normal, while Argentina may face potential production reduction risks. The US soybean supply is expected to increase, and the net long position of US soybean funds has decreased. In China, the inventory reduction of oil mills is slow, and the downstream pre - holiday stocking provides some support, but the increase in the oil mill operating rate suppresses the upward movement of the price [11]. - **Outlook**: Sideways movement. The soybean meal will continue to trade in a low - level range, and the canola meal is expected to move sideways [11]. 3.3 Corn/Starch - **View**: Sideways movement. The spot price is firm, and the futures price is adjusting [13]. - **Logic**: The supply in the upstream is slightly loose, but the overall situation is still tight. The selling pressure before the Spring Festival is not large, and the feed enterprises maintain a certain inventory. The deep - processing enterprises' inventory has increased, but the subsequent upward momentum is limited. The substitute grains and policy grains also affect the market [14]. - **Outlook**: Sideways movement. The market is in a state with a ceiling and a floor in the short term [14]. 3.4 Hogs - **View**: Bearish with oscillations. The upstream supply is sufficient, and the hog price continues to weaken [15]. - **Logic**: In the short term, the slaughter rhythm is slow at the beginning of the month and may accelerate at the end of the month. In the medium term, the supply will be in surplus until April 2026. In the long term, the sow capacity started to decline in the third quarter of 2025, and the supply pressure is expected to ease after May 2026. The demand is shrinking, and the inventory has increased [16]. - **Outlook**: Bearish with oscillations. There is a risk of concentrated inventory release before the Spring Festival, and the fundamentals will remain weak after the festival. It is recommended to consider short - selling hedging opportunities in the first half of the year. The hog cycle is expected to bottom out and recover in the second half of 2026 [16]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: Sideways movement within a range. The price is affected by factors such as raw material prices and downstream demand [19]. - **Logic**: The natural rubber price has been oscillating at a high level. The overseas supply is relatively abundant, and the demand from tire enterprises before the festival provides some support, but the inventory is increasing rapidly. The short - term fundamental driving force is insufficient, but the rubber is supported by the bullish trend of the chemical sector [20]. - **Outlook**: Sideways movement. It is recommended to adopt a long - position strategy on pullbacks in the medium term, and the short - term price may return to a wide - range oscillation [20]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: There is a need for adjustment. The price of butadiene rubber has increased rapidly and needs to be adjusted [21]. - **Logic**: The BR futures price has fallen after a sharp rise. The overall chemical sector has seen a large outflow of funds, but the medium - term core logic of tight butadiene supply in the first half of 2026 remains unchanged. The price of butadiene has continued to rise, and the market sentiment is bullish [22]. - **Outlook**: Bullish with oscillations after adjustment. The butadiene supply - demand pattern is expected to improve, but short - term adjustment is needed [22]. 3.7 Cotton - **View**: Bullish with oscillations. The price is adjusting, and attention should be paid to the lower support [23]. - **Logic**: The cotton inspection is nearing completion, the cotton import has increased, and the downstream pre - holiday stocking has increased. The cotton fundamentals are healthy, but there is a lack of new positive factors in the short term. In the medium and long term, the cotton supply may be in a tight - balance situation, and the price is expected to rise [23]. - **Outlook**: Bullish with oscillations. It is recommended to buy on pullbacks [23]. 3.8 Sugar - **View**: Bearish with oscillations. The sugar price is oscillating [24]. - **Logic**: The global raw sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 2025/26 season, and the prices of domestic and international sugar have fallen to a relatively low level. The production in major producing countries is increasing, and the domestic supply is also increasing [24]. - **Outlook**: Bearish with oscillations. It is recommended to short on rebounds [24]. 3.9 Pulp - **View**: Bearish with oscillations. The broad - leaf pulp price is falling, and the pulp fundamentals are weak [25]. - **Logic**: The demand for pulp is decreasing due to the decline in downstream production. The broad - leaf pulp has weakened significantly, while the impact on coniferous pulp is relatively small. The import cost provides some support, but there are many negative factors such as seasonal demand decline and abundant inventory [25]. - **Outlook**: Bearish with oscillations. The pulp futures price is expected to move weakly in the short - term range [25]. 3.10 Offset Paper - **View**: Bearish with oscillations. The offset paper is trading in a range [27]. - **Logic**: The offset paper market is stable, but the supply pressure still exists. The downstream demand is weak, and the paper mills' price - increase efforts are difficult to pass on. The industry's operating rate is expected to decline, and the market trading volume is expected to decrease [27]. - **Outlook**: Bearish with oscillations. The spot price is expected to be stable before the Spring Festival, and the futures price will oscillate weakly in the range [27]. 3.11 Logs - **View**: Sideways movement. Attention should be paid to breaking through the upper pressure level [28]. - **Logic**: The log futures price has been oscillating around 770 - 780 yuan/cubic meter. The next pressure level is around 800 yuan/cubic meter. The negative factors in the market have been digested, and the spot price has increased, which may drive the market sentiment. The 03 contract can be traded in the range of 760 - 800 yuan/cubic meter [28]. - **Outlook**: Sideways movement. The market is expected to trade in a short - term range [28].

证券代码：605296 证券简称：神农集团 公告编号：2026-003 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容 的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： ● 本期业绩预告适用于：实现盈利，且净利润与上年同期相比下降50%以上的情形。 ● 云南神农农业产业集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）预计2025年年度实现归属于母公司所有者的 净利润为31,300.00万元至38,400.00万元。预计2025年年度实现归属于母公司所有者的扣除非经常性损益 后的净利润为27,800.00万元至34,900.00万元。 一、本期业绩预告情况 （二）基本每股收益：1.31元。 三、本期业绩预减的主要原因 （一）业绩预告期间 2025年1月1日至2025年12月31日。 （二）业绩预告情况 1.经公司财务部门初步测算，预计2025年年度实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润为31,300.00万元至 38,400.00万元，与上年同期（法定披露数据）相比，将减少30,281.53万元到37,381.53万元，同比减少 44.09%到54.43%。 2.预计2025年年度 ...

证券代码：603477 证券简称：巨星农牧 公告编号：2026-010 债券代码：113648 债券简称：巨星转债 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容 的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： ● 本期业绩预告适用于实现盈利，且净利润与上年同期相比下降50%以上的情形。 ● 乐山巨星农牧股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）预计2025年年度实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润 2,600.00万元到3,600.00万元。预计2025年年度实现归属于母公司所有者的扣除非经常性损益后的净利润 4,600.00万元到5,600.00万元。 一、本期业绩预告情况 （一）业绩预告期间 2025年1月1日至2025年12月31日。 生猪市场价格的大幅波动（下降或上升）与动物疫病是生猪养殖行业的系统性风险，对任何一家生猪养 殖生产者来讲都是客观存在的、不可控制的外部风险，可能会对公司的经营业绩产生重大影响。敬请广 大投资者审慎决策，理性投资，注意风险。 五、其他说明事项 （二）业绩预告情况 经财务部门初步测算，预计2025年年度实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润 2, ...

面对每天上千份上市公司公告该看哪些？重大事项公告动辄几十页几百页重点是啥？公告里 一堆专业术语不知道算利好还是利空？请看智通财经公司新闻部《速读公告》栏目，我们派 驻全国的记者们将于公告当晚为您带来准确、快速、专业的解读。 智通财经1月27日讯（记者 刘建）生猪养殖行业寒意正浓，养殖企业巨星农牧（603477.SH）难逃业绩 承压困局，公司预计去年净利润同比骤降超9成。 公司今日晚间发布的公告显示，2025年，公司预计实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润2600万元-3600万 元，同比减少94.99%-93.06%；扣除非经常性损益后的净利润为4600万元-5600万元，同比减少91.08%到 89.14%。 去年前三季度，公司实现归母净利润1.07亿元，Q3单季度实现归母净利润为-7402万元。据此测算，预 计公司Q4归母净利润为-7100万元至-8100万元，延续了Q3的业绩低迷态势。 值得注意的是，据Choice数据，此前14家机构对巨星农牧2025年归母净利润预测均值为2.78亿元，显著 高于此次业绩预告的上限。 作为A股上市公司中生猪产能扩张的典范，巨星农牧出栏量近年来持续高增长。2021年-2024年 ...

报告期内，公司按照经营计划稳步推进生猪出栏并持续推动生猪养殖业务降本增效，但由于受到市场行 情波动影响生猪销售价格出现大幅下降，公司生猪养殖业务利润同比下降。 智通财经APP讯，巨星农牧(603477.SH)发布2025年年度业绩预告，预计2025年年度实现归属于母公司 所有者的净利润2,600万元到3,600万元。预计2025年年度实现归属于母公司所有者的扣除非经常性损益 后的净利润4,600万元到5,600万元。 ...

人民财讯1月27日电，神农集团（605296）1月27日公告，预计2025年实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润 为3.13亿元至3.84亿元，同比减少44.09%到54.43%。报告期内，全年商品猪销售均价约13.39元/公斤， 较上年同期下降约17.70%，由于生猪销售价格同比出现较大幅度下降，导致生猪养殖业务利润同比减 少。 ...

财务方面，于2022年度、2023年度、2024年度、2024年以及2025年截至9月30日止九个月，牧原股份收 入分别约为1248.26亿元(人民币，下同)、1108.61亿元、1379.47亿元、967.75亿元、1117.90亿元；同 期，净利润分别约为149.33亿元、-41.68亿元、189.25亿元、112.46亿元、151.12亿元。 智通财经APP获悉，据媒体报道，生猪养殖企业牧原食品(002714.SZ)计划最早周四(1月29日)开始接受 上市申购，募资规模约15亿美元。据港交所披露，牧原食品已于1月16日通过港交所主板上市聆讯，摩 根士丹利、中信证券、高盛为其联席保荐人。 牧原食品表示，拟将上市集资所得款项用于挖掘海外机遇扩大商业版图、通过研发投入推动全产业链技 术创新、营运资金及一般企业用途。 招股书显示，牧原股份为生猪养殖行业的领导者，采取的垂直一体化商业模式已覆盖生猪育种、生猪养 殖、饲料生产、屠宰肉食的生猪全产业链条。根据弗若斯特沙利文统计，自2021年起，按生猪产能及出 栏量计量，公司是全球第一大生猪养殖企业，生猪出栏量连续四年全球第一。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company Muyuan Foods plans to begin its IPO subscription as early as January 29, aiming to raise approximately $1.5 billion, with Morgan Stanley, CITIC Securities, and Goldman Sachs serving as joint sponsors [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Muyuan Foods is a leader in the pig farming industry, employing a vertically integrated business model that covers the entire pig industry chain, including breeding, farming, feed production, and meat processing [1] - According to Frost & Sullivan, since 2021, Muyuan Foods has been the largest pig farming company globally in terms of production capacity and output, maintaining the highest pig output for four consecutive years [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - For the fiscal years 2022, 2023, 2024, and the nine months ending September 30, 2024, and 2025, Muyuan Foods reported revenues of approximately CNY 124.83 billion, CNY 110.86 billion, CNY 137.95 billion, CNY 96.78 billion, and CNY 111.79 billion respectively [1] - The net profits for the same periods were approximately CNY 14.93 billion, -CNY 4.17 billion, CNY 18.93 billion, CNY 11.25 billion, and CNY 15.11 billion respectively [1] Group 3: Use of Proceeds - Muyuan Foods intends to use the funds raised from the IPO to explore overseas opportunities, expand its business footprint, invest in R&D for technological innovation across the entire industry chain, and for working capital and general corporate purposes [1]