Group 1: Treasury Exposure Concerns - China has issued a warning to banks regarding their concentrated exposure to U.S. treasuries, advising them to reduce excessive holdings, particularly not affecting state banks [1][2] - The global ownership of U.S. treasuries is significant, and concerns are rising about the U.S. government's high debt levels and international policies, leading to potential reductions in treasury exposure by foreign investors [3][4] Group 2: Japanese Market Dynamics - The Japanese stock market is experiencing strong performance, with the Nikkei index up by 3.9%, and the yen showing volatility [4] - There is an expectation that Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields will continue to rise, which could positively impact the Japanese economy and sustain the bullish trend in Japanese stocks [7] Group 3: U.S. Economic Outlook - There is a bullish sentiment regarding the U.S. economy, despite concerns about stagflation signals from upcoming inflation and jobs data [8][10] - The current jobs data for January is negative, and inflation is not expected to soften, indicating potential challenges for risk assets in the near term [9][10]

Market Overview - Asian stocks surged on Monday, recovering from previous week's declines linked to AI concerns and a historic election win in Japan, which is expected to lead to increased spending and tax cuts [1] - Oil prices fell over 1% despite rising tensions between the U.S. and Iran, with President Trump advocating for regime change [2] - The Kospi index in South Korea climbed 4.10% amid renewed confidence in the AI industry [4] Company Highlights - Shares of Montage Technology, a Chinese chip designer, soared over 50% during their Hong Kong trading debut [3] - Samsung Electronics' stock increased by 4.9% as it prepares to begin mass production of the world's first sixth-generation high-bandwidth memory (HBM4) [5] - SK Hynix shares rose by 5.7%, while Samsung SDI and LG Energy Solution saw increases of 2.7% and 2.5%, respectively [5] - Amorepacific, a leading cosmetics maker, jumped over 20% following strong earnings reports for 2025 [5] Economic Indicators - U.S. consumer sentiment showed a slight improvement in early February, with inflation expectations for the next five years rising from 3.3% to 3.4% [7] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 50,000 for the first time, marking a 2.5% increase and ending a three-week losing streak [8]

And that was exactly what the 1951 agreement brought to an end. The Fed had capped both short- and longer-dated Treasury yields during World War II and its aftermath to hold down federal borrowing costs. That recipe caused postwar inflation to soar, however. The Truman administration — in a watershed moment that crystallized the Fed’s autonomy over monetary policy — then agreed to let policymakers set rates on their own.“Rather than insulating the Fed, it could look more like a framework for yield-curve con ...

Corporate Developments - InPost, a Polish parcel-delivery giant, is set to be acquired by a consortium including Advent International, FedEx, A&R, and PPF Group for €7.8 billion ($9.22 billion), representing a 50% premium over its share price prior to the announcement [3][10] - Following the acquisition news, InPost shares increased by 13.5% in early European trading [3] - Upon completion of the acquisition, Advent and FedEx will each hold a 37% stake in InPost, while A&R will hold 16% and PPF 10% [4][10] Pharma Sector - Novo Nordisk's stock surged by 8.6% after Hims & Hers Health Inc. announced it would halt the sale of its copycat version of Wegovy, following legal threats from Novo Nordisk [5][10] - Hims & Hers had initially launched a cheaper compounded oral semaglutide, which faced backlash and regulatory scrutiny [6] Banking Sector - UniCredit announced plans to return €50 billion to investors over the next five years, leading to a 3.9% increase in its share price [7][10] - This announcement follows UniCredit's strategic acquisition of a 9% stake in Commerzbank AG, with potential plans to increase its shareholding to 29.9% by March 2025 [8][10] Market Sentiment - Major European stock indices showed positive momentum, with Britain's FTSE 100 rising 0.3%, France's CAC 40 up 0.25%, and Spain's IBEX gaining 0.66% [12][10] - In Switzerland, the SECO Consumer Confidence index for January registered at -30.1, indicating ongoing caution among households despite a slight improvement from previous figures [13]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the expertise of Sensor Unlimited in financial economics, particularly in the mortgage market, commercial market, and banking industry, highlighting her contributions to asset allocation and ETFs [2] Group 1: Company Overview - Sensor Unlimited has a PhD in financial economics and has spent a decade focusing on the mortgage and banking sectors [2] - The company offers two model portfolios aimed at different investment strategies: one for short-term survival and another for aggressive long-term growth [2] Group 2: Services Offered - The company provides direct access via chat for discussing investment ideas and offers monthly updates on all holdings [2] - Tax discussions and ticker critiques are available upon request, enhancing the service's value for investors [2]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net income for the 9-month period was JPY 389.7 billion, an increase of JPY 117.9 billion year-over-year, marking the highest third-quarter cumulative net profit ever [2] - Pre-tax profits reached JPY 567.7 billion, up by JPY 184.3 billion year-over-year, with all three categories of finance, operation, and investments showing profit growth [3] - Shareholder returns were enhanced with an expansion of the share buyback program from JPY 100 billion to JPY 150 billion, with JPY 128.1 billion completed by the end of January [3] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Finance segment profits increased by 8% year-over-year to JPY 145.5 billion, driven by growth in investment income and finance revenues in Australia and Asia [4] - Operation segment profit rose by 17% to JPY 189.5 billion, supported by gains from airport concessions and real estate operations [4][5] - Investment segment profits surged by 100% year-over-year to JPY 261.4 billion, significantly boosted by gains from the sale of Greenko shares and other investments [6][7] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The environment energy segment profit increased by JPY 109.1 billion year-over-year, reaching JPY 122.2 billion, primarily due to gains on the sale of Greenko Energy Holdings [17] - The insurance segment profit rose by 20% year-over-year to JPY 74.1 billion, driven by expansion in investment assets and portfolio securities [18] - The banking and credit segment profit decreased by JPY 2.2 billion year-over-year to JPY 19.9 billion, impacted by rising funding costs and credit losses [19] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to drive sustainable growth and improve capital efficiency while maintaining its full-year net income forecast [8] - Organizational reforms were announced to restructure into three business divisions, although the current fiscal year will continue under the existing 10-segment framework [11] - The company is focusing on capital recycling, with JPY 196.6 billion in capital gains and ongoing investments in operations and PE investments [9][10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the domestic economy's growth and the performance of various segments, including automotive and IT [42][43] - There is caution regarding the impact of rising interest rates and potential credit losses, with a focus on maintaining financial soundness [51][54] - The management is committed to evaluating business plans regularly to ensure alignment with capital efficiency and profitability goals [45][72] Other Important Information - The company has made significant investments in AI infrastructure and logistics facilities, indicating a strategic focus on technology and operational efficiency [10] - The impact of inbound tourism on earnings is being monitored, particularly concerning the decline in Chinese passenger numbers [24][25] - The company is actively managing its portfolio to mitigate risks associated with legacy assets and market fluctuations [21][22] Q&A Session Summary Question: Details on ORIX USA and Hilco Global integration - Management confirmed that valuation gains from ORIX Capital Partners were significant and that a 100-day plan for Hilco Global is being executed to enhance collaboration [35][36] Question: Overall progress and performance against the plan - Management highlighted strong performance in investments and operations, with expectations for continued growth despite potential challenges in the fourth quarter [41][44] Question: Clarification on U.S. valuation gains - Management indicated that the strong performance of U.S. investees, particularly in technology, contributed positively to the overall results [46][80] Question: Cost considerations for the fourth quarter - Management acknowledged potential credit costs and emphasized a cautious approach to project evaluations, particularly regarding Erawan [49][52] Question: Changes in employed capital ratio and risk appetite - Management explained that the employed capital ratio was recalibrated for more detailed risk assessment, with no direct impact on risk appetite [58][60] Question: Capital gains and base profit disclosures - Management clarified that capital gains were not incorporated in the same manner as before, focusing instead on base profit growth [66][67] Question: Future plans for profit growth and ROE targets - Management emphasized the importance of capital efficiency and the potential for continued profit growth, with a focus on high-quality investments [71][72]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net income for the 9-month period was JPY 389.7 billion, an increase of JPY 117.9 billion year-over-year, marking the highest third-quarter cumulative net profit ever [2][3] - Pre-tax profits reached JPY 567.7 billion, up by JPY 184.3 billion year-over-year, with growth across all three categories: finance, operation, and investments [3][7] - Shareholder returns were enhanced with an expanded share buyback program from JPY 100 billion to JPY 150 billion, with JPY 128.1 billion completed by the end of January [3][4] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Finance segment profits increased by 8% year-over-year to JPY 145.5 billion, driven by growth in investment income and finance revenues in Australia and Asia [4][5] - Operation segment profit rose by 17% to JPY 189.5 billion, supported by gains from airport concessions and real estate operations [4][5] - Investment segment profits surged by 100% year-over-year to JPY 261.4 billion, significantly boosted by gains from the sale of Greenko shares and other investments [6][7] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The environment energy segment profit increased by JPY 109.1 billion year-over-year to JPY 122.2 billion, primarily due to gains on the sale of Greenko Energy Holdings [17] - The insurance segment profit rose by 20% year-over-year to JPY 74.1 billion, driven by expansion in investment assets and portfolio securities [18] - The banking and credit segment profit decreased by JPY 2.2 billion year-over-year to JPY 19.9 billion, impacted by rising funding costs and losses from selling long-term bonds [19] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to drive sustainable growth and improve capital efficiency while maintaining its full-year net income forecast [8][9] - Organizational reforms were announced to restructure into three business divisions, although the current fiscal year will continue under the existing 10-segment framework [11] - The company is focusing on capital recycling, with JPY 196.6 billion in capital gains and ongoing investments in operations and PE investments [9][10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the domestic economy's growth and the performance of various sectors, including automotive and IT [42][44] - There is caution regarding the impact of rising interest rates and potential credit losses, with a focus on maintaining financial soundness [19][51] - The management is closely monitoring the situation in China, particularly regarding inbound tourism and its effects on earnings [24][25] Other Important Information - The total assets increased by JPY 1.2594 trillion compared to the end of last year, with significant contributions from the consolidation of Hilco Global [28] - The employed capital ratio was adjusted to 89%, reflecting improved risk management practices [58][60] - The company plans to maintain a payout ratio of 39% of net income per share, with flexibility in shareholder returns [30][72] Q&A Session All Questions and Answers Question: Details about ORIX USA and Hilco Global integration - Management confirmed that valuation profit within the portfolio was significant, and they are executing a 100-day plan for Hilco Global integration [33][35] Question: Overall progress and performance against the plan - Management highlighted strong performance in investments and operations, with expectations for continued growth despite potential challenges in the fourth quarter [40][41] Question: Clarification on U.S. valuation gains - Management indicated that the performance was within expectations, with strong growth in technology-related investees contributing to the results [46][47] Question: Cost considerations for the fourth quarter - Management acknowledged potential credit costs and emphasized a cautious approach to project evaluations, particularly regarding Elawan [49][51] Question: Changes in employed capital ratio and life insurance liabilities - Management explained that the employed capital ratio was recalibrated for better risk assessment, and discussions are ongoing regarding life insurance liabilities [58][62] Question: Capital gains and base profit disclosures - Management clarified that capital gains were not incorporated in the same manner as before, focusing instead on base profit growth [66][67] Question: Future investment strategies and ROE targets - Management emphasized the importance of capital efficiency and the potential for continued profit growth, with a focus on high-quality investments [71][72]

Acquisition of Evelyn Partners Creating the #1 UK Private Bank and Wealth Manager Transforming our savings & investments offering for our >20 million customers Accelerating delivery of our Group strategy in a structurally attractive growth market Scales our PBWM business to ~20% of Group customer assets and liabilities1 , incl. £127bn AUMA2 Increases Group fee income by ~20%3 strengthening growth, RoTE and capital generation Higher return than a share buyback, with significant value creation from revenue an ...

Core Viewpoint - The seminar emphasized that development is the foundation for solving all problems in China, and economic growth is essential for high-quality development, necessitating a balance between qualitative improvement and quantitative growth [1] Group 1: Economic Policy Recommendations - Experts suggested that fiscal policy should play a larger role this year, with a deficit rate higher than or at least not lower than the previous year, and an increase in the scale of national debt issuance to expand total expenditure [1] - A recommendation was made for a significant overall interest rate cut of at least 50 basis points throughout the year to stimulate investment and consumption, alongside better utilization of reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts [1] - There is a call for enhanced coordination between fiscal and monetary policies to effectively leverage new financial policy tools and appropriately expand their scale to achieve a leverage effect on investment [1] Group 2: Real Estate and Credit Market Stability - To stabilize investment and boost consumption, it is crucial to restore the foundational conditions for effective credit issuance, which includes increasing efforts to stabilize the real estate market [1]

Core Viewpoint - Japanese stocks are experiencing record highs following Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's landslide victory, which is expected to lead to a weaker yen, rising equities, and higher government bond yields due to her dovish monetary policy stance and anticipated fiscal stimulus [1][3][4]. Group 1: Election Results and Market Reactions - Takaichi's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) secured a supermajority with 316 seats, marking the largest election victory since World War Two, allowing her to push her legislative agenda more effectively [2]. - The Nikkei 225 index surpassed 57,000, reaching a record high, while the Topix index also hit an all-time peak of 3,825.67, exceeding pre-election expectations [4]. - Analysts believe the strong LDP win will enable more growth-friendly policies, boosting investor sentiment [4][5]. Group 2: Fiscal Policy and Bond Market Implications - Takaichi's victory is expected to revive the "Takaichi trade," characterized by a weaker yen and rising long-dated government bond yields, reflecting her dovish monetary policy [3]. - The yield on the 10-year Japanese government bond rose by 4 basis points to 2.27% following the election, indicating potential pressure on bonds due to increased government spending [6]. - Takaichi announced a record budget of 122 trillion yen for the upcoming financial year, marking a second consecutive year of record spending [6]. Group 3: Debt Concerns and Currency Movements - Japan's debt-to-GDP ratio is nearly 230%, making it the most indebted nation globally, which raises concerns about fiscal sustainability [7]. - Despite expectations of increased spending, Takaichi indicated that newly issued government bonds would remain below 30 trillion yen for the second consecutive year [13]. - Interestingly, the yen strengthened by 0.4% to 156.55 against the dollar after the election, reflecting Takaichi's commitment to fiscal sustainability [14].