Core Insights - The investment strategy focuses on acquiring strong businesses when they are undervalued, emphasizing the importance of quality and price in investment decisions [1] - The portfolio has evolved over time, transitioning through various industries including telecom, banking, technology, and emerging markets, with a current emphasis on high-quality businesses [1] - The investment philosophy is influenced by notable investors and CEOs, highlighting the value of learning from successful figures in the industry [1] Investment Strategy - The approach prioritizes companies with large user bases and extensive content libraries, recognizing the potential for cross-selling opportunities [1] - Valuation is conducted at the EBIT plus R&D level, reflecting a belief in the significance of certain R&D investments [1] - The investment performance from February 2019 to October 2024 shows an annual return of 11.4% CAGR, which is below the market's 15.18% CAGR, indicating a need for improved future performance [1] Portfolio Management - The strategy aims to minimize portfolio turnover, with a focus on holding existing investments rather than frequent buying and selling [1] - The philosophy rejects traditional "Buy" and "Sell" recommendations, advocating for a "Strong Buy" threshold for exceptional businesses and categorizing others as "Strong Sell" to free up capital for new opportunities [1] - A "Hold" position may be initiated for high-quality businesses if their pricing is not favorable, indicating a flexible approach to investment management [1]

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Investment Rating - The report maintains an overall positive outlook on emerging market currencies while being underweight on emerging market sovereign credit and maintaining a market weight on local rates and corporates [7]. Core Insights - The report projects a first Fed cut in December 2025, with expectations for 2-year Treasury yields to reach 3.50% and 10-year yields to reach 4.35% by year-end 2025 [11][13]. - Global oil demand is tracking year-over-year growth of 410 thousand barrels per day (kbd), but is 130 kbd lower than the forecasted expansion for June [7]. - The dollar smile phenomenon persists, indicating that the dollar's strength is contingent on the nature of events driving defensive behavior [7]. US Rates - Front-end yields have declined to 2-month lows, influenced by administration criticism of the Fed, with a healthy labor market indicated by June employment data [3][16]. - Tactical positions include entering 2-year shorts and adding steepeners in the 5s/7s sector while hedging with flatteners in the 10s/30s sector [19][21]. International Rates - Yield curves have bull steepened across most developed markets, with US rates outperforming due to a sharp drop in oil prices and dovish Fed commentary [4][47]. - Euro rates have bear steepened, driven by updated German fiscal numbers and NATO defense spending agreements [4][47]. Commodities - Jewelry demand weakness is not expected to significantly impact gold prices, although vigilance is advised for potential shifts to other metals [7]. Currencies - The report maintains a bearish stance on the USD, projecting key targets for various currency pairs, including EUR/USD at 1.20-1.22 and GBP/USD at 1.42 [66][85]. - The dollar's weakening is anticipated due to moderation in US growth and supportive fiscal and monetary policies outside the US [66][71]. Emerging Markets - The report suggests staying overweight on emerging market currencies while being underweight on emerging market sovereigns, with a market weight on local rates and corporates [7]. - US policies are expected to dominate the emerging market outlook in the second half of the year, with a slower growth, no-recession base case [7].

Group 1 - Triumph Financial, Inc. (Nasdaq: TFIN) will release its second quarter financial results and management commentary after market close on July 16, 2025 [1] - A conference call to review the financial results will be held on July 17, 2025, at 9:30 a.m. central time, led by Vice Chairman and CEO Aaron P. Graft and CFO Brad Voss [2] - The live video conference can be accessed through a specific link or the Company's IR website, with an archive available afterward [3] Group 2 - Triumph Financial is a financial and technology company focused on modernizing and simplifying freight transactions, with a portfolio that includes Triumph, TBK Bank, and LoadPay [4]

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Core Insights - The article discusses the author's academic and professional background in Machine Learning, Economics, and Finance, highlighting expertise in Data Science and Machine Learning applications within the banking and finance sectors [1]. Group 1: Academic Background - The author holds a PhD in Machine Learning with a focus on Economics and Finance [1]. - The author has academic affiliations with IESE Business School, ESADE Business School, and the Barcelona Supercomputing Center [1]. Group 2: Professional Experience - The author has worked at Deloitte Financial Advisory, specializing in Data Science and Machine Learning applications for clients in banking, insurance, and finance [1]. - The author currently teaches Asset Pricing and Introduction to Corporate Finance at ESADE Business School at the MSc/BSc level [1]. Group 3: Research Focus and Interests - Current research focuses on Generative AI in sustainable finance [1]. - The author's interests include machine learning and generative AI applications in finance and economics, with proficiency in Python, R, and SQL [1].

Core Viewpoint - The conference emphasized the importance of inclusive finance as a key component of China's financial strategy, focusing on its broad scope beyond just credit services to encompass a comprehensive service ecosystem [1][4][11]. Group 1: Understanding Inclusive Finance - Inclusive finance is often misunderstood as merely providing widespread and discounted financial services; however, its true essence lies in inclusivity, ensuring that marginalized groups have access to financial services [6][7]. - The term "Inclusive Finance" should be accurately interpreted, as it highlights the need to serve those typically overlooked by financial institutions, thereby addressing social inequality [7][8]. Group 2: Scope of Inclusive Finance - Inclusive finance encompasses a wide range of financial services, including credit, insurance, equity investment, and more, rather than being limited to just microloans [8][11]. - The importance of consumer finance is highlighted, as it plays a crucial role in supporting the daily lives of low-income individuals, demonstrating that inclusive finance is vital for economic stability [9][10]. Group 3: Current Challenges in Inclusive Finance - The existing inclusive finance ecosystem faces several shortcomings, including the need for community banks that can operate with dual objectives, and the recognition that inclusive insurance may be more critical than inclusive credit [11]. - There is a call for financial support for entrepreneurship, particularly in rural areas, to aid in revitalizing local economies and addressing employment challenges [11]. Group 4: Future Directions of Inclusive Finance - The future of inclusive finance is closely tied to digital and intelligent finance, indicating a shift towards more advanced technological integration in financial services [12]. - Other financial sectors, such as green finance and pension finance, must also align with the principles of inclusive finance to ensure comprehensive coverage and support for underserved populations [12].

Group 1: Market Overview - The bond market continued its warm trend on July 3, with short-term bonds remaining strong and long-term bonds showing slight consolidation [1][2] - The main contracts for government bond futures mostly closed higher, with the 30-year contract down 0.02% at 121.130, while the 10-year contract remained flat at 109.105 [2] - The interbank short-term bond yields decreased by approximately 0.5 basis points, while long-term bonds remained stable [1][5] Group 2: Fund Flows - The central bank conducted a net withdrawal of 452.1 billion yuan in the open market on July 3, with a slight decline in funding rates at the beginning of the month [1][5] - The Shibor short-term rates collectively decreased, with the overnight rate down 5.0 basis points to 1.315%, marking a new low since December 2024 [5] Group 3: Institutional Insights - CITIC Securities noted that the traditional "loan-based" profit model of Chinese banks is facing restructuring due to slowing economic growth and tightening credit demand, leading to increased bond purchases by smaller banks [7] - Changjiang Fixed Income suggested that the central bank's liquidity support is expected to continue, but the space for further easing may be limited as interbank bond market leverage rises above 108% [7] - CITIC Jiantou recommended viewing convertible bonds as tools to capture upward momentum in the equity market, while cautioning that their valuation is currently high [6]

Core Insights - The article discusses the author's academic and professional background in Machine Learning, Economics, and Finance, highlighting expertise in Data Science and Machine Learning applications within the banking and finance sectors [1] - The current research focus is on Generative AI in sustainable finance, indicating a trend towards integrating advanced technologies in financial practices [1] Group 1: Academic and Professional Background - The author holds a PhD in Machine Learning with a focus on Economics and Finance, and has affiliations with prestigious business schools and research centers [1] - Professional experience includes working at Deloitte Financial Advisory, specializing in Data Science and Machine Learning applications for clients in banking, insurance, and finance [1] - The author teaches Asset Pricing and Introduction to Corporate Finance at ESADE Business School at both MSc and BSc levels [1] Group 2: Research Interests and Skills - Current research interests include Generative AI applications in sustainable finance, reflecting a growing intersection of technology and finance [1] - Proficient in programming languages such as Python, R, and SQL, which are essential for data analysis and machine learning applications in finance [1]

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