Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to the aviation industry, indicating an expectation for the industry to outperform the overall market [1]. Core Insights - The Civil Aviation Administration of China released the summer-autumn flight schedule for 2025, showing a 3.3% year-on-year decrease in overall domestic flight slots compared to 2024, while international flight slots increased by 5% [1]. - The domestic flight slots for the summer season of 2025 are projected to average 16,100 flights per day, a 4% decrease from 2024, marking the first decline in domestic slots since the pandemic [1]. - Major airline groups are reducing more domestic slots, particularly on mid- to low-tier routes, with Sichuan Airlines seeing a 9% decline in domestic slots [1]. - International flight slots are steadily recovering, with an average of 2,487 flights per day, reaching 81% of the levels seen in 2019 [1]. - The report suggests that external factors such as oil prices and exchange rates are improving, and domestic demand is expected to recover, which could lead to a cyclical upturn in the aviation market [1]. Summary by Sections Domestic Flight Schedule - The summer-autumn 2025 domestic flight schedule shows a total of 6,866 domestic routes planned, with major airline groups maintaining stable market shares [1]. - The average daily coordinated slots are projected at 8,041, a 2% decrease from 2024 but a 21% increase from 2019 [1]. International Flight Recovery - International flight slots are recovering to 85% of 2019 levels, with specific regions like Australia and North America showing varied recovery rates [1]. - Domestic airlines are leading in recovery rates compared to international airlines, with domestic slots recovering to 85% of 2019 levels [1]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the aviation sector due to strong supply logic and elastic demand, suggesting potential for significant performance improvement for airlines [1]. - Specific airlines recommended for investment include China National Aviation, Spring Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines, among others [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the transportation industry, particularly highlighting the potential benefits from the upcoming U.S. shipping legislation hearing on March 24, 2025 [4][23]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of the U.S. shipping legislation and its potential impact on the shipping and logistics sectors, particularly for companies like 德翔海运 (Dexion Shipping) [4][23]. - The report identifies AI-driven logistics as a key factor in reducing logistics costs, with companies like 圆通速递 (YTO Express) expected to benefit significantly from digital transformation initiatives [6][23]. - The report notes a mixed performance across sub-sectors, with the express delivery sector showing the highest growth, while the airline sector faced declines [7][14]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The transportation index increased by 1.07%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.52 percentage points [7]. - The express delivery sector saw a significant increase of 3.62%, while the airline transportation sector experienced a decline of 1.81% [7][14]. Shipping and Logistics - The report highlights the volatility in shipping rates, with the VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) rates rising by 3% to $35,202 per day, while the Suezmax rates increased by 24% to $51,524 per day [25][24]. - The SCFI (Shanghai Containerized Freight Index) recorded a drop of 8.1%, indicating pressure on container shipping rates [27][39]. Air Transportation - The report suggests that external factors such as oil prices and domestic demand recovery are likely to enhance the airline sector's performance, with a focus on the potential for increased passenger volumes [44]. High Dividend Stocks - The report lists high dividend yield stocks in the transportation sector, including 渤海轮渡 (Bohai Ferry) with a yield of 12.07% and 大秦铁路 (Daqin Railway) with a yield of 7.07% [19][21]. Recommendations - The report recommends关注 (focus on) companies like 中国动力 (China Power), 中国船舶 (China Shipbuilding), and 招商轮船 (China Merchants Energy) for potential investment opportunities [24][23].

行业研究 市场研究部 2025 年 3 月 11 日 交运行业周报（2025/3/3-3/9） 行情综述 上周沪深 300 指数上涨 1.39%，申万交运行业指数小幅小幅小涨 0.15%，落后大盘 1.24 个百分点，在 31 个申万一级行业中排名第 26。上周二级细分行业中，物流板块（+0.70%）、航空机场板块 （+0.48%）和航运港口板块（+0.45%）实现上涨，铁路公路板块 （-1.00%）出现回落。上周三级行业中，涨幅最大的三个板块为公 路货运（+6.53%）、仓储物流（+1.09%）和航运（+1.05%）；跌 幅最大的三个板块为高速公路（-2.56%）、港口（-0.61%）和原材 料供应链服务（-0.19%）。 个股：上周交运板块 132 家上市公司中，71 家实现上涨，涨幅前三 为华光源海(+15.14%)、传化智联（+9.52%)和怡亚通(+8.21%)；跌 幅前三为皖通高速（-8.70%)、粤高速 A（-8.35%)和普路通(-5.76%)。 估值方面：截至 2025 年 3 月 9 日，申万交运板块 PE（TTM） 16.35 倍，位于近 5 年的 66.06%分位点。 投资建议 根据 ...

Investment Rating - The report recommends investment in several companies within the aviation and logistics sectors, including China National Aviation (601111.SH), Southern Airlines (600029.SH), and Huamao Logistics (603128.SH) [9]. Core Insights - The report highlights the recovery of air travel demand, with domestic ASK (Available Seat Kilometers) for major airlines exceeding 100% of 2019 levels, indicating a strong rebound in the aviation sector [19][22]. - The logistics sector is expected to benefit from the growth of cross-border e-commerce, driven by domestic demand and the expansion of local manufacturing brands [8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of smart logistics and digital transformation in enhancing operational efficiency and meeting consumer demands [63][66]. Summary by Sections Aviation and Airports - As of December 2024, domestic ASK recovery rates for major airlines reached 132.45% for China National Aviation and 153.98% for Spring Airlines compared to 2019 [19]. - International flight recovery rates vary, with the UK at 112% and Italy at 122% compared to 2019 [22]. - The report notes that the optimism surrounding airport duty-free agreements has been priced in, with future international passenger flow recovery being a key focus [7]. Shipping and Ports - The SCFI (Shanghai Containerized Freight Index) reported a value of 1436 points as of March 7, 2025, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 5.21% and a year-on-year decrease of 23.83% [28]. - The BDTI (Baltic Dirty Tanker Index) was at 879 points, down 0.86% week-on-week and down 26.01% year-on-year [33]. - The report indicates a significant decline in shipping rates across various routes, with the CCFI (China Containerized Freight Index) showing a decrease of 7.70% year-on-year [28]. Road and Rail - In December 2024, railway freight volume increased by 8.46% year-on-year, reaching 4.59 million tons, while road freight volume grew by 9.94% to 37.74 million tons [39][46]. - The report highlights the expansion of rail capacity in the southwest region, enhancing operational efficiency [60]. Express Logistics - The express delivery sector achieved a revenue of 137.89 billion yuan in December 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 13.60% [49]. - The average price per express delivery item decreased by 13.61% to 7.75 yuan [49]. - The report emphasizes the growth potential in the express logistics sector, driven by e-commerce and the development of differentiated competitive advantages among leading companies [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The dry bulk market is showing signs of recovery, with freight rates and FFA prices both increasing. Cape-sized vessel spot rates have doubled compared to the low point on February 12, reaching $11,584 per day, although still down 56% year-on-year. The market sentiment has improved due to better weather in Australia and a shift in coal shipping to Cape-sized vessels, leading to tight capacity in the Pacific market [5] - The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) reported a decrease of 5.0% to 1515 points as of February 28, with varying changes in rates for different routes [6] - The oil tanker freight rates have decreased, with the BDTI index down 3.2% to 888 points, and the TCE for VLCC down 8.8% [6] - The BDI index for dry bulk shipping increased by 20.5% to 1078 points, indicating a positive trend in the dry bulk shipping market [7] Summary by Sections Shipping Vessels - The dry bulk market is recovering with freight rates increasing significantly. Cape-sized vessel rates have reached $11,584 per day, while Panamax and Supramax rates have increased by 51% and 69% respectively. The FFA market is also showing a positive trend with March contract prices nearing $18,000 per day [5] - The oil tanker market is facing downward pressure with a decrease in freight rates across various vessel types [6] - The BDI index has shown a significant increase, indicating a recovery in the dry bulk shipping market [7] Aviation - The aviation sector is expected to benefit from macroeconomic recovery, with a long-term supply-demand gap driving growth. The spring travel season is showing positive booking data, indicating a potential rebound in demand [14] - Global air passenger demand increased by 10% in January, with the Asia-Pacific region performing particularly well [9] - The CAPSE report indicates a positive trend in travel willingness for March, suggesting a recovery in air travel demand [10] Express Logistics - The express delivery sector is showing resilience, with overall demand remaining strong. The leading companies in the sector are expected to benefit from cyclical recovery and cost reduction efforts [14] - The logistics sector has maintained smooth operations, with significant increases in freight volumes across various transport modes [11] Supply Chain Logistics - The logistics landscape is evolving with the introduction of new low-altitude logistics routes, enhancing delivery efficiency in urban areas [12] - Companies like Shenzhen International are expected to see performance improvements due to the transformation of logistics parks [16] Shipping and Shipbuilding - The oil tanker market is expected to see sustained demand due to limited new orders and an aging fleet, while the dry bulk market is anticipated to recover due to regulatory pressures on older vessels and new mining projects [14] - The shipbuilding sector is experiencing tight capacity, with new orders extending delivery times to 2027/28, driving up ship prices [14]

水皮杂谈 一家之言 兼听则明 偏听则暗 不及预期 离除夕只有4个交易日了，依然是维持之前的判断，市场会进入"春节模式"，后续每天量能都 有萎缩的可能，而且周五是持币过节的人最后的卖出时机，耐心观察和等待吧。 (本文数据来 自： choice数据） 每日看盘 今日A股三大指数高开低走，两市共成交1 2 0 5 2亿，较前个交易日放量2 2 3亿。 其中沪指下跌 0 . 0 5%，收报3 2 4 2 . 6 2点； 深成指上涨0 . 4 8%，收报1 0 3 0 5 . 6 9点； 创业板指上涨0 . 3 6%，收报 2 11 2 . 3 9点。 熟悉的走势，连续两天走出了高开低走的走势，区别只在于昨天是有冲高，而今天连冲高这一 步都省略了。整体来说，这两天的走势是有些不及预期的，毕竟收盘后晚上都是一堆利好，昨 天还叠加了A5 0暴涨和美元兑人民币汇率的大跌，核心的原因还是临近放假，人心散了，资金 也形不成合力。 盘面上，全天两市1 9 2 0家上涨，3 1 3 3家下跌。中位数下跌0 . 4 2%，微盘股指数下跌1 . 1 3%。虽 然从指数上看上证微跌，深成指和创业板指上涨，但今天的盘面其实是比昨天弱很多的， ...