过去一周，基本金属和贵金属市场始终被强烈的投资者兴趣(尤其在中国)所主导，这源于市场对美元前 景的疑虑以及资金从货币和主权债券中轮动流出。上周五的下跌则是由美国总统特朗普提名以强硬抗击 通胀著称的凯文.沃什执掌美联储所触发。"一些基金在春节前退出市场，以规避如此高波动性下的风 险，"硕河资产管理公司分析师高银表示。"然而，支撑本轮上涨的中长期逻辑并未改变。中国投资者之 间存在着一致看涨的共识。" 一月是上海期货交易所有史以来金属交易最活跃的月份，铜的交易量在上周五的暴跌中飙升至创纪录高 位。由于需求前景强劲且供应紧张，铜被视为具有吸引力的押注标的，但上周的价格飙升甚至发生在中 国制造业活动停滞的背景下。 铜价进一步下跌，延续了上周五的深跌走势。此前数日，受中国市场多空力量激烈博弈推动，金属市场 经历剧烈震荡，交易员们正在研判后续走势。 周一，伦敦金属交易所(LME)铜价延续上周跌势，截至发稿，LME铜价下跌3.92%，至每吨12,653美 元，此前上周五已下跌3.4%。上周四，铜价曾飙升至每吨14,500美元以上的历史高位，随后在上周五的 盘中交易中跌破13,000美元。 ...

华尔街无法判断沃什是敌是友 华尔街尚不确定凯文・沃什会是盟友还是对手。 华尔街尚不确定凯文・沃什会是盟友还是对手。 投资者们乐观地认为，沃什将维护美联储珍视的独立性。 但他们同时也担心，他可能远非特朗普总统所要求的那种主张宽松货币政策的主席，因为沃什对缩减央行债 券持有量表现出了极大的热情。 这种矛盾的观点在周五的市场中得到了体现：股市下跌，债券收益率保持平稳，美元走强， 华尔街无法判断沃什是敌是友 投资者们乐观地认为，沃什将维护美联储珍视的独立性。 但他们同时也担心，他可能远非特朗普总统所要求的那种主张宽松货币政策的主席，因为沃什对缩减央行债 券持有量表现出了极大的热情。 这种矛盾的观点在周五的市场中得到了体现：股市下跌，债券收益率保持平稳，美元走强，而黄金和白银则 经历了四十多年来表现最糟糕的一天。 沃什在 2006 年至 2011 年期间担任美联储理事，并因长期主张低利率和大规模购债会推高物价而赢得了 **"通胀鹰派"的声誉 **。 最近，他表示美联储应该更快地降息。 但他同时也继续主张，央行应当缩减充斥着美国国债的资产负债表 —— 一些投资者认为，此举可能会削弱降 息带来的影响。 一些领先的投资者对这 ...

Group 1 - BlackRock, Bridgewater, and PIMCO are adjusting their portfolios to guard against a new wave of inflation, with BlackRock establishing short positions in US Treasuries and UK investment-grade bonds, while Bridgewater favors stocks over bonds, and PIMCO looks at Chinese bonds that offer inflation-adjusted yields for protection [1] - There are increasing signs that concerns about inflation are justified, as the yield spread between regular Treasuries and Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) has widened sharply, reaching its highest level in months, and inflation swap rates have also risen [1] - The expectation of a strong US economy reigniting price growth is heightened by the recent nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair, which could lead to faster or larger rate cuts if he aligns with President Trump's desires [1] Group 2 - UBS's senior trader Ben Pearson believes that the "inflationary boom" led by the US is the most underestimated risk for investors this year, potentially causing the Fed to remain inactive in the first half of the year and forcing the market to adjust to rate hike expectations in the second half [4] - Standard Bank's G-10 strategist Steven Barrow predicts that if the White House's desire for rate cuts is thwarted, the yield on 10-year Treasuries could soar from around 4.25% to 5% [4] - The situation presents challenges for Warsh, who, if confirmed by the Senate, will take over in May when Jerome Powell's term ends, as investors must weigh Warsh's hawkish reputation on inflation against his willingness to meet Trump's rate cut demands [4] Group 3 - The cautious stance of these fund managers contrasts sharply with the broader market belief that inflation, which had previously weighed on bond returns post-pandemic, is now largely under control [5] - In the Eurozone, investors generally believe that price growth will stabilize at or slightly below target levels, despite long-term inflation expectations rising alongside US indicators [5] Group 4 - The outlook in the UK is more uncertain, with recent positive economic data prompting traders to reassess the pace of potential rate cuts, reducing the probability of a second cut this year to about 50% [6] - In Australia, persistent domestic price growth has led traders to increase bets on a rate hike, marking a significant policy shift less than six months after the last cut [6] Group 5 - Diverging views among global investors are most pronounced regarding the US economy, with some, like Amova's Steven Williams, believing price pressures are easing and predicting the Consumer Price Index (CPI) could fall below 2% before summer [7] - Conversely, Lazard's CEO Peter Orszag argues that a rise in US inflation above 4% by year-end is not only possible but the most likely scenario [7] Group 6 - The current environment for predicting inflation is filled with uncertainty due to renewed tariff tensions and the rapid development of emerging technologies, alongside geopolitical threats impacting oil prices and industrial metals [10] - The Fed's recent decision to maintain interest rates signals that inflation remains "somewhat elevated," presenting a challenging task for Warsh to either justify rate cuts or suggest necessary hikes [10] Group 7 - Bridgewater highlights the AI boom as another uncertain factor, suggesting that while it may ultimately reduce inflation through increased productivity, the immediate demand for chips and data scientists could exacerbate challenges for bonds [11] - BlackRock's Tactical Opportunities Fund has been increasing short positions in long-term US Treasuries and UK investment-grade bonds, anticipating that strong economic growth and rising commodity prices will continue to exert upward pressure on consumer prices [11] - TIPS are viewed as a potential hedge against inflation, although they carry their own risks, as noted by Vanguard's senior portfolio manager, who emphasizes the importance of monitoring oil prices in relation to TIPS performance [11]

贝莱德、桥水联合基金和太平洋投资管理公司的基金经理正调整投资组合，应对市场普遍忽视的通胀上 行风险。 贝莱德旗下战术机会基金自去年底以来，持续加仓做空长期美国国债和英国金边债券，防范降息预期落 空带来的风险。桥水联合基金将配置重心更多转向股票资产，太平洋投资管理公司则重点布局带有通胀 调整机制的美国国债，依托这类产品构建通胀对冲缓冲。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 来源：市场资讯 1月以来，多项市场指标印证了相关机构的判断：普通美国国债与通胀保值债券的收益率利差攀升至数 月以来的最高水平，通胀互换合约价格同步上行，反映市场通胀预期正在抬升。当前通胀压力的核心来 源，是美国经济的强劲表现或将再度推升物价水平；若美国总统特朗普提名的下一任美联储主席凯文· 沃什推动更快、更大幅度的降息操作，通胀上行压力将进一步放大。从全球范围来看，大宗商品价格上 涨、各国政府发债规模扩大以及人工智能领域的投资热潮推高相关产业链用工与原材料成本，也在持续 加剧通胀压力。 瑞银集团高级交易员本·皮尔森指出，美国主导的'通胀型繁荣'是今年被投资者严重低估的核心风险。他 表示，若该情 ...

市场持这一观点的核心原因，是预期美国经济的强劲表现将再度推升物价；尤其是若美国总统唐纳德・ 特朗普于上周五提名的下一任美联储主席凯文・沃什，带领政策制定者实施更快、更大幅度的降息，通 胀上行压力将进一步加大。 从全球范围来看，大宗商品价格上涨、各国政府大举发债以及人工智能领域的投资热潮，均在加剧这一 压力。年初以来，随油价上涨，市场通胀指标同步走高大宗商品价格上涨持续推升通胀压力。 瑞银集团高级交易员本・皮尔森指出，由美国主导的 "通胀型繁荣"，是今年被投资者严重低估的最大 风险。 贝莱德、桥水联合基金和太平洋投资管理公司的基金经理正调整投资组合，应对新一轮通胀来袭。 贝莱德旗下某基金正做空美国国债和英国金边债券，以防降息预期落空。桥水联合基金更青睐股票而非 债券，太平洋投资管理公司则看好收益率内嵌通胀调整机制的美国国债所提供的缓冲保护。 有越来越多的迹象印证了他们的担忧并非杞人忧天：1 月，普通美国国债与通胀保值债券的收益率利差 大幅飙升至数月以来的最高水平，另一项反映市场预期的指标 —— 通胀互换合约价格也出现上涨。 皮尔森称，若这一情景成为现实，美联储将在今年上半年 "完全按兵不动"，并迫使市场为下半年 ...

（来源：合富永道） 平安养老受托资管部总经理罗庆忠：2026年权益配置聚焦三条主线 在2016年1月23日济安金信及华泰证券在北京共同举办的中国资管群星汇颁奖典礼暨私募基金高质量发展论坛上， 2025年度理财公司、商业银行、养老金 产品及管理人"群星汇"多项大奖榜单隆重发布。本次颁奖盛典在予以表彰优秀资管管理人的同时，全新增设私募基金评选赛道。出席本次盛典的有100多 家银行理财、商业银行、养老金管理人等资管机构，100多家私募基金，10多家证券公司高管和10多家主流媒体领袖。本次论坛最精彩的环节之一是2026 资产配置畅谈圆桌论坛环节， 华泰证券研究所所长张继强作为主持嘉宾，华夏理财副总裁贾志敏、宁银理财副总经理王俊、青银理财总裁助理姚庆、宁 波鄞州农商行副行长沈华、平安养老受托资管部总经理罗庆忠进行了精彩对话。 2026资产配置畅谈 圆桌论坛 嘉宾： 华泰证券研究所所长张继强 华夏理财副总裁 贾志敏 宁银理财副总经理 王俊 青银理财总裁助理 姚庆 宁波鄞州农商行副行长 沈华 第一，"924"行情以来的情况。"924"以来应该讲是国家对股票市场重新定位，它从以前的融资变成了投资跟融资并重。这点如果得到市场不 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent decline of the US dollar, driven by a resurgence of "currency devaluation trading" and investor concerns about the long-term purchasing power of the dollar, despite reassurances from US Treasury Secretary Scott Basset regarding a strong dollar policy [1] Group 1: Dollar Performance - The US dollar index fell to 96.03 on the 29th, marking a decline of approximately 0.3% [1] - The decline in the dollar's value is attributed to investors shifting towards alternative assets due to fears of prolonged depreciation of the dollar's purchasing power [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following comments from President Trump suggesting a favorable view of a weaker dollar for US businesses, a wave of dollar selling was triggered [1] - Investors are increasingly favoring tangible safe-haven assets like gold, as the dollar has not demonstrated characteristics of a safe-haven currency [1] Group 3: Institutional Actions - BlackRock, a major asset management firm, has reportedly joined the ranks of those shorting US Treasuries, with concerns about persistent inflation risks in the US and UK [1] - BlackRock's Tactical Opportunities Fund, managed by Tom Becker, has been increasing its short positions in long-term US and UK government bonds since late last year, anticipating that high inflation will hinder interest rate cuts [1] - Several European pension funds have also begun selling dollar-denominated assets due to concerns over the unpredictability of US fiscal and debt conditions [1]

周五金银的暴跌始于特朗普将提名沃什为美联储新任主席的报道。SLC管理公司董事总经理德克·马拉 基表示，沃什的履历带有鹰派色彩，这降低了美元全面贬值的风险。市场正在回归有序的货币政策轨 道。此外分析师们还提到，月末快速获利了结的交易员，或为防范突然下跌影响而进行对冲操作的 银 行，也可能助推了这次贵金属抛售。BullionVault研究主管阿德里安·阿什表示，他已经参与贵金属市场 20年了，从没见过像现在这样的情况。但他淡化了散户投资者突然在周五撤出资金的可能性，并指出了 铜等基本金属市场的类似异常走势，例如铜 期货周五下跌了4.5%。阿什还表示，只看金银，很容易说 这是散户的狂热，但基本金属市场没有散户参与。 ...

Group 1 - The real estate investment and financing exchange conference held in Guangzhou aims to revitalize existing real estate assets and support new investments for high-quality urban development [1] - The establishment of the Guangzhou real estate asset management service platform and the Guangzhou real estate investment fund marks the official operation of the asset management service platform [1] - Guangzhou has achieved significant progress in real estate asset management since the introduction of measures to promote the sector, including the creation of a comprehensive asset management ecosystem [1] Group 2 - Guangzhou Urban Investment Group provides full lifecycle investment and financing services for real estate, utilizing asset securitization to revitalize existing assets and support new investments [2] - The group has developed a multi-tiered, convertible asset securitization system and plans to issue real estate asset revitalization products across three major exchanges [2] - Guangzhou Urban Investment Group aims to establish a real estate asset management hub in China, leveraging its AAA credit rating and partnerships with leading asset managers and financial institutions [2]

*ST中地本轮重大资产重组，以剥离房地产业务相关重资产和高负债为核心目标。随着相关资产交割在 2025年内完成，该公司历史包袱显著减轻，净资产转正成为阶段性成果。这也意味着，困扰公司多年的 退市风险警示压力已从"结构性问题"转为"程序性问题"，为后续经营修复和战略转型赢得空间。 需要指出的是，净资产转正是交易所规则中撤销退市风险警示的关键门槛之一。在年度报告经审计后， 如不再触及其他风险情形，公司有望按规则向交易所申请撤销相关风险警示，市场此前普遍担忧的"保 壳不确定性"已明显下降。 此外，*ST中地还同步披露了前期会计差错更正公告，对2025年第三季度部分财务列报项目进行了调 整。 根据公司公告，在重大资产出售暨关联交易完成交割时，公司原先基于对会计准则的理解，将置出资产 及负债与1元对价之间的差额计入"投资收益"科目。随着对《企业会计准则》相关条款的进一步审慎研 判，公司经自查认为，前述差额更适宜计入资本公积科目，从而对2025年第三季度部分财务报表列示进 行了更正。 从影响范围看，本次会计差错更正仅涉及财务报表列示项目的重新归类，不涉及现金流变化，不影响公 司营业收入、扣除非经常性损益后的净利润，也不改 ...