【固收】促信贷还有"撒手锏"——2025年6月13日利率债观察 众所周知，地方政府隐性债务置换是用成本低、期限长的地方政府债券来置换成本高、剩余期限短的债 务，这有利于纾解债务链条，让地方政府卸下包袱，轻装上阵。所以，在地方政府隐性债务置换阶段，虽 然信贷增长的速度并不高，但这不意味着信贷支持实体经济力度出现了下降，反而是有利于经济增长的。 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 今 日 聚 焦 2025 年 4 月 7 日至 6 月 12 日期间， AI 芯片龙头公司英伟达 /AMD/ 博通累计上涨 54%/38%/75% （ vs 纳斯达克指数累计上涨 26% ），北美 AI 板块股价表现强劲， AI 相关利好频出。 （张旭） 2025-06-13 您可点击今日推送内容的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the continuous growth and innovation of Shengyi Technology in the copper-clad laminate industry, emphasizing its market position, financial performance, and strategic initiatives in the AI server sector [3][4][5]. Group 1: Market Position and Innovation - Shengyi Technology has maintained its leading position in the copper-clad laminate industry, ranking second globally in rigid copper-clad laminate sales with a market share of 14% in 2023 [3]. - The company has actively pursued innovation, applying for 58 domestic patents, 5 foreign patents, and 3 PCT patents in 2024, with a total of 682 authorized effective patents by the end of 2024 [3]. Group 2: AI Server Market Development - The global AI server market is projected to grow from $125.1 billion in 2024 to $158.7 billion in 2025, and is expected to exceed $222.7 billion by 2028 [4]. - Shengyi Technology is responding to the increasing demand for AI servers by collaborating with major domestic and international clients on GPU and AI projects, with products already in mass supply [4]. Group 3: Financial Performance - In 2024, Shengyi Technology achieved a revenue of 20.388 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 22.92%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.739 billion yuan, up 49.37% year-on-year [5]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 5.611 billion yuan, a 26.86% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 564 million yuan, reflecting a 43.76% growth [5]. Group 4: Production and Sales Growth - In 2024, Shengyi Technology produced 14,371.48 million square meters of various copper-clad laminates, a 17.03% increase from the previous year, and sold 14,348.54 million square meters, up 19.40% [6]. - The production of bonding sheets reached 18,903.45 million meters, a 12.28% increase, while sales were 18,820.27 million meters, growing by 11.50% [6]. - The production and sales of printed circuit boards were 147.16 million square meters and 145.69 million square meters, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.10% and 15.24% [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the structural growth in the copper-clad laminate (CCL) industry driven by the demand for AI and high-performance computing, alongside the challenges posed by copper price fluctuations affecting profitability [1][2][20]. Group 1: Company Overview - The company has been a leader in the CCL industry for 40 years, being the first listed company in this sector in China, with a significant market presence in various downstream applications including servers, communications, and automotive electronics [4][6]. - The company has optimized its product structure, leading to improved profitability, with a production capacity increase from 600,000 square meters to 120 million square meters by 2023 [4][8]. Group 2: Financial Performance - The company expects a significant rebound in performance in 2024, with projected total revenue of 20.39 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.92%, and a net profit of 1.739 billion yuan, up 49.37% [8][10]. - The revenue from CCL and bonding sheets is expected to grow from 12.63 billion yuan in 2023 to 16.99 billion yuan in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.85% [46]. Group 3: Industry Dynamics - The CCL industry is characterized by high concentration, with the top five companies holding over 55% of the market share, while the PCB industry remains more fragmented [22]. - The demand for CCL is expected to grow significantly due to the increasing need for AI servers and high-speed data transmission, with a projected CAGR of approximately 12% from 2024 to 2029 in the server and data center segment [19][24]. Group 4: Supply Chain and Material Costs - The cost structure of CCL is heavily influenced by copper prices, which have risen from around $4,300 per ton in 2020 to approximately $9,000 per ton in early 2025, impacting the overall profitability of CCL manufacturers [20]. - The company is focusing on high-frequency and low-loss materials to meet the increasing demands of AI servers, with a shift towards using advanced materials like PTFE for better performance [41][39]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing expansion in AI infrastructure, with expectations of increased capital expenditures from major cloud service providers, which are projected to exceed $320 billion in 2025 [26][28]. - The company aims to achieve a significant market share in the high-speed CCL segment, leveraging its technological advancements and product matrix to replace foreign suppliers [39][37].

Core Viewpoint - The company is experiencing significant growth in revenue and profit due to the structural changes in the downstream market driven by AI demand and the optimization of its product structure [1][2]. Group 1: Company Overview - The company has been a key player in the copper-clad laminate (CCL) industry for 40 years, being the first listed company in this sector in China [4]. - It has maintained the second-largest global sales of rigid CCL since 2013, with production capacity increasing from 600,000 square meters to 120 million square meters by 2023 [4]. - The company has a diversified customer base across various sectors, including servers, communications, automotive electronics, and consumer electronics [4]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 20.39 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.92%, and a net profit of 1.739 billion yuan, up 49.37% [8]. - The revenue from CCL and bonding sheets accounted for 72.55% of total sales, with a growth rate of 17.09% [10]. - The gross margin improved to 22.04% in 2024, driven by an increase in high-end product sales [12]. Group 3: Industry Dynamics - The CCL industry is experiencing structural growth due to the explosion of AI demand, with the global PCB market expected to reach $90.5 billion by 2028, growing at a CAGR of 5.4% [17]. - The demand for CCL is closely tied to copper prices, which have risen significantly from around $4,300 per ton in 2020 to approximately $9,000 per ton in early 2025 [20]. - The industry is characterized by high concentration, with the top five companies holding over 55% of the market share [22]. Group 4: Market Trends - The demand for AI servers is driving the growth of high-frequency and high-speed CCL, with a projected compound annual growth rate of about 12% from 2024 to 2029 in the server and data center segment [19]. - The capital expenditure of major cloud service providers continues to rise, with Amazon expected to exceed $100 billion in 2025, indicating strong demand for computing infrastructure [26]. - The transition from 400G to 800G switches is expected to create a surge in demand for advanced CCL materials, necessitating a shift to ultra-low loss materials [35]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 23.85 billion yuan, 27.87 billion yuan, and 31.65 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits of 2.748 billion yuan, 3.445 billion yuan, and 4.128 billion yuan [45]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for high-performance CCL driven by advancements in AI and computing technologies [39].

Core Insights - The rigid copper-clad laminate (CCL) industry in China experienced rapid growth from 2019 to 2021 due to accelerated 5G base station construction, surging demand for electronic components in electric vehicles, and increased consumer electronics demand driven by the pandemic. However, starting in 2022, the industry entered an adjustment phase due to global economic recession, weak consumer electronics demand, and semiconductor supply chain disruptions. In 2023, the industry continued to contract, with sales volume slightly decreasing to 524.9 million square meters and sales revenue shrinking to 9.334 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decline of 16.3% [2]. Industry Overview - Rigid copper-clad laminates, also known as copper foil laminated boards, play a crucial role in electronic circuit manufacturing, providing conductivity, insulation, and support. They significantly impact signal transmission speed, energy loss, and characteristic impedance. Rigid copper-clad laminates are characterized by their hardness and toughness, making them suitable for applications in communication devices, household appliances, electronic toys, and computer peripherals [3]. Policy Background - China's policy support for the rigid copper-clad laminate industry is characterized by multi-level and multi-dimensional collaborative promotion, focusing on technological upgrades, intelligent equipment transformation, and green transition. Key policy areas include supporting the R&D breakthroughs of high-frequency and high-speed copper-clad laminates and high-performance substrates, optimizing production processes, and establishing standardized testing systems to enhance product reliability. Additionally, policies encourage enterprises to strengthen pilot testing capabilities through advanced equipment updates and promote sustainable development through the adoption of environmentally friendly materials and clean production processes [5][6]. Industry Chain - The rigid copper-clad laminate industry chain in China consists of upstream suppliers of key raw materials such as electronic-grade glass fiber cloth, copper foil, resin, and wood pulp paper, which provide the foundational materials for laminate manufacturing. The midstream focuses on the production and manufacturing of rigid copper-clad laminates through processes like lamination and coating. The downstream applications cover communication devices, household appliances, electronic toys, and computer peripherals, directly serving the demands of consumer electronics, communication technology, and home appliance industries [7]. Current Industry Status - In 2023, the global rigid copper-clad laminate market faced a decline due to macroeconomic fluctuations, with total sales revenue dropping by 16.3% to 12.734 billion USD and sales volume slightly decreasing by 1.1% to 656.8 million square meters. Among the product categories, conventional FR-4 maintained the largest sales revenue share at 33.38%, while special resin-based and dedicated CCL (including high-speed, high-frequency, and IC carrier boards) increased their share to 32.88%, driven by resilient high-end demand from AI servers, 5G communication, and advanced packaging technologies. The demand for halogen-free FR-4 and high Tg FR-4 has contracted due to weakened consumer electronics and automotive electronics demand, while composite and paper-based CCL accounted for less than 10% of the market, leading to a rapid exit of traditional low-end products. Notably, high-speed CCL (including halogen-free types) showed outstanding performance among the three special laminates, with sales revenue increasing by 5.5% despite market challenges, driven by rising technical barriers [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the journey of Nanya New Materials in the copper-clad laminate industry, emphasizing its role in breaking international monopolies and advancing China's high-tech materials sector through innovation and self-reliance [2][3][8]. Group 1: Company Background and Leadership - Nanya New Materials was founded 25 years ago by Bao Xiuyin, aiming to provide domestic copper-clad laminates for the Chinese electronics industry [2]. - Bao Xinyang, the current general manager and son of the founder, is committed to continuing his father's mission of innovation and breaking international monopolies in the industry [2][8]. - The company has evolved from producing low-end products to focusing on high-end markets, achieving significant technological advancements [3]. Group 2: Technological Innovation - Nanya New Materials has obtained a total of 115 patents, with over 40% being invention patents, showcasing its commitment to R&D [3]. - The company has developed high-end products, including the NY series materials, which meet international standards and have been certified by leading communication equipment manufacturers [3][5]. - The NY-P4 high-speed material, capable of 800Gbps, has been successfully developed and is now used in top global AI servers and switches, demonstrating the company's technological capabilities [5]. Group 3: Market Strategy and Growth - The company emphasizes collaborative development and aims to create a global industrial ecosystem, enhancing customer service and supply chain efficiency [4]. - Nanya New Materials is shifting from price competition to value competition, increasing its presence in the high-end market [4]. - The company is expanding its production capacity with new facilities in Jiangsu and Thailand, which are expected to enhance its supply capabilities in the electronic materials sector [6]. Group 4: Industry Trends and Adaptation - The company is adapting to market fluctuations by reallocating resources to emerging sectors such as AI servers and electric vehicles, where demand for copper-clad laminates is increasing [6][7]. - The demand for copper-clad laminates in electric vehicles has surged, with usage increasing from 0.5 square meters to approximately 4 square meters per vehicle due to rising smart technology [6]. - Nanya New Materials aims to maintain a resilient supply chain and achieve steady growth through technological independence and global capacity expansion [7][9].

金安国纪集团股份有限公司 2024 年年度权益分派实施公告 证券代码：002636 证券简称：金安国纪 公告编号：2025-039 金 安 国 纪 集 团 股 份 有 限 公 司 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记载、误 导性陈述或重大遗漏。 金安国纪集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"），2024 年年度权益分派 方案已获 2025 年 5 月 20 日召开的 2024 年度股东大会审议通过，现将权益分派 事宜公告如下： 一、股东大会审议通过利润分配及资本公积金转增股本方案等情况 （一）公司 2024 年度股东大会审议通过的利润分配方案具体为：以 2024 年 利人民币 0.85 元（含税），共计派发现金人民币 61,880,000.00 元，剩余利润作 为未分配利润留存；本年度不送红股，不以公积金转增股本。若公司股本在分配 预案披露后至分配方案实施前，公司股本发生变动的，公司维持分配总额不变， 相应调整每股分配金额。 （二）自分配预案披露至分配方案实施期间，公司股本总额未发生变化。 （三）本次实施的分配方案与股东大会审议通过的分配方案一致。 三、股权登记日与股权除息日 本次 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Company and Industry Involved - **Industry**: Apple Supply Chain (Fruit Chain), PCB Industry, Optical Industry, Semiconductor Industry - **Companies Mentioned**: Apple, BYD Electronics, AAC Technologies, PCB manufacturers, etc. Core Insights and Arguments - **Tariff Impact on Fruit Chain**: The A-share market is still recovering from tariff impacts, while the fruit chain benefits from tariff adjustments. Focus should also be on new Apple product expectations and long-term AI innovations, especially with the upcoming WWDC conference potentially announcing Apple's AI strategy [1][3][4] - **Apple's Price Adjustments**: Apple has significantly reduced prices for products in China, such as the iPhone 16 series and AirPods Pro 2, which is expected to boost domestic sales but may impact profit margins [1][9] - **AI Innovations by Apple**: Apple has made progress in AI integration, including Safari AI integration and collaborations with Baidu and Alibaba in China. The release schedule for new products is expected to be more even, accelerating hardware innovation [1][10][11] - **BYD Electronics' Strategy**: BYD Electronics is circumventing tariffs through its Vietnam factory, with significant growth expected from new components for foldable devices and AI-related products [1][23][24][25] - **AAC Technologies' Recovery**: AAC Technologies has been negatively impacted by tariffs but is expected to recover with a profitable optical business and growth from iPhone 17-related revenues [1][20][21][22] Additional Important Content - **PCB Industry Performance**: The PCB industry showed strong performance in Q1 2025, driven by high demand from AI, smart driving, and consumer orders. The second quarter is expected to see further growth in performance [2][26][27] - **Tariff Changes**: The U.S. has made adjustments to tariffs on Chinese goods, with some tariffs being suspended for 90 days and others completely canceled. Continuous monitoring of semiconductor-related investigations is necessary [5][6] - **Market Reactions**: Following tariff news, Hong Kong stocks related to the fruit chain saw significant price increases, indicating market optimism about resolving tariff issues [7] - **Future Product Innovations**: Apple is expected to introduce several innovative products, including foldable iPhones and smart glasses, with a more balanced release strategy to mitigate seasonal fluctuations in the supply chain [12][14][15][17] - **AI Glasses and AR Developments**: Major companies, including Apple, are actively developing AI and AR glasses, with competitive launches expected in the near future [18][19] Recommendations - **Investment Recommendations**: Suggested stocks include Luxshare Precision, AAC Technologies, and Hengmingda, which are expected to benefit from tariff adjustments and have strong growth potential in the current market environment [13][32]

Summary of Conference Call Records Company and Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the performance of major US tech companies, including Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Google, in Q1 2025, highlighting their resilience amid economic concerns and tariff impacts [3][4][9]. Key Points and Arguments Apple Inc. - **Q1 Performance**: Apple reported a slight revenue and profit beat, with total revenue growth of approximately 5%, hardware growth of about 3%, and services growth of around 12%. Revenue from China declined by 2-3% due to currency effects, but remained flat when excluding these factors. The company expects Q2 growth of 0%-5% [1][5]. - **Tariff Impact**: Anticipated tariff increases of approximately $900 million in Q2 will not lead to price hikes, as most iPhones are now produced in India and other products like AirPods and Apple Watch are made in Vietnam, making tariff impacts manageable [1][5]. - **Future Investments**: Apple plans to invest $500 billion over four years to build a server base in Texas, significantly increasing its capital expenditures from the previous $9-10 billion annually [1][5]. - **Innovation Directions**: Future innovations include 3D printing technology and foldable devices, with 3D printing already in use for small components and foldable devices expected by the end of 2026 [1][5]. Meta Platforms, Inc. - **Metaverse Focus**: Meta is concentrating on its Quest and smart glasses products, with sales of the co-branded smart glasses with Ray-Ban increasing over threefold and monthly active users growing fourfold. A real-time translation feature has been added to enhance user experience [6][7]. - **AI Glasses Development**: Meta plans to launch new AI glasses in collaboration with Lucid, which may become a significant development direction in the next three to five years [6][7]. North American Cloud Service Providers (CSPs) - **Strong Demand**: CSPs like Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Google are experiencing robust demand for computing power. Microsoft reported Q1 revenue of $70.07 billion, a 13.3% year-over-year increase, with cloud service revenue growing by 20% [9][10]. - **Capital Expenditure Guidance**: Meta raised its full-year CAPEX guidance to $64-72 billion, reflecting increased investments in AI-related data centers and infrastructure [10]. Amazon's Q1 revenue was $155.67 billion, meeting expectations, but its Q2 guidance was slightly below market expectations [10]. Domestic Computing Supply Chain Companies - **Resilience to Tariffs**: Domestic computing supply chain companies are less affected by tariffs, primarily due to low export ratios and FOB pricing structures [11]. - **Strong Q1 Performance**: Companies like Huadian, Shennan, and Shengyi Electronics reported strong Q1 results, particularly those with high AI exposure. For instance, Huadian's profits grew by 48% year-over-year [12]. - **Copper Clad Laminate Industry**: The copper clad laminate industry is currently experiencing high demand, with price increases expected due to supply constraints. Companies like Nanya Technology are seeing significant revenue growth [13]. Investment Opportunities - **High Value in Domestic Supply Chain**: Current investment in domestic computing supply chain companies is considered cost-effective, with strong performance indicators from both domestic and international CSPs suggesting robust demand for computing power [14]. Additional Important Insights - **Emerging Technologies**: The display and optical components of AI glasses are seen as having high investment value, with Micro LED technology expected to become mainstream [8]. - **Market Sentiment**: Despite concerns over tariffs and economic downturns, the overall performance of these tech giants indicates a strong market sentiment and potential for growth in the AI sector [3][4].

Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's net profit for 2024 was -113 million CNY, indicating a loss despite revenue growth [2] - The gross margin for the copper-clad laminate business in 2024 was 3.18%, with a net profit of -8.3 million CNY, primarily due to high initial investments for market expansion [3][4] Group 2: Business Strategy and Market Position - The company aims to improve profitability and gross margin through cost optimization, material cost control, and customer structure optimization [1] - The veterinary vaccine business is focusing on developing specialty products and implementing a "big product, big customer" strategy to enhance its market position over the next 3-5 years [2][3] Group 3: New Business Developments - The company has recently entered the copper-clad laminate and animal nutrition (feed) sectors, which are expected to have significant growth potential due to increasing demand in various industries [2][3] - The competitive advantages in the new businesses lie in production processes, management teams, and technological accumulation [2] Group 4: Future Outlook and Plans - The company plans to maintain stable operations in the feed business while actively expanding market reach and improving cost control to enhance profitability [4] - Future business development will focus on a dual main business model of "electronic information + animal health," leveraging technology to enhance industry positioning [4]