Core Viewpoint - The CRO sector experienced a collective decline in stock prices, influenced by recent economic data and expectations regarding interest rate changes in the U.S. [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - King’s Ray Biotechnology (01548) fell by 6.05%, trading at 14.92 HKD [1] - Kanglong Chemical (300759) decreased by 4.67%, trading at 20.8 HKD [1] - Via Biotechnology (01873) dropped by 4.57%, trading at 1.88 HKD [1] - Tigermed (300347) declined by 3.71%, trading at 36.9 HKD [1] Group 2: Economic Context - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for September exceeded expectations, leading to a reduced likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in December [1] - Despite fluctuations in overseas CPI data, there is an expectation for a gradual shift towards interest rate cuts starting in 2024, which may improve investment and financing conditions [1] Group 3: Industry Outlook - Zhongtai Securities (600918) anticipates a recovery in external demand for CRO/CDMO services and domestic preclinical CROs, suggesting potential valuation recovery opportunities [1] - The CRO sector has been significantly impacted by domestic and international financing environments, but with the gradual implementation of domestic policies, a recovery in the sector is expected [1] - Continuous focus on investment opportunities in clinical CROs is recommended as the sector shows signs of recovery [1]

Q325 results indicate that the performance of China CROs and CDMOs continues to diverge, with CDMOs outperforming CROs, driven by overseas demand, in our view. Q325 revenue growth remained strong for Wuxi Apptec 15.3% YoY (beat) and Pharmaron +13.5% YoY (in line). In contrast, Tigermed delivered 3.9% YoY revenue growth (in line) and Joinn was a miss (-34.9% YoY) with both GMs under pressure as competition led to low order prices. Although we see positive signals of a China CRO demand recovery, we continue t ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry [1] Core Insights - The innovative drug market is expected to reignite, with a focus on bottoming out and potential recovery in the sector [5][9] - The report highlights a continuous improvement in Q3 performance, with expectations for further acceleration in 2026 [13][19] - The overall revenue of pharmaceutical companies decreased by 2.0% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, but Q3 showed a 0.6% increase in revenue compared to the previous quarter [19][26] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the innovative drug sector and companies with improving fundamentals for future investment opportunities [4][10] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - In October 2025, the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector declined by 1.83%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by the same percentage [9][10] - The report notes a mixed performance among sub-sectors, with pharmaceutical commerce and traditional Chinese medicine showing gains, while chemical pharmaceuticals and medical services experienced declines [9][10] Q3 Financial Results - Q3 results indicate a trend of continuous improvement, with revenue growth turning positive for the first time since Q2 2024 [19][26] - The report details that the medical services sector, particularly CRO/CDMO, showed significant performance improvements, while other sectors are still in a clearing phase [19][26] Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on innovative drugs and companies with improving fundamentals, suggesting specific companies such as WuXi AppTec, Innovent Biologics, and others for potential investment [4][10] - It also advises on positioning for 2026, highlighting the expected recovery in demand and orders for CRO/CDMO and medical device companies [4][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with an increased target price of HKD 30 for the Hong Kong stock and RMB 39.6 for the A-share [10][19]. Core Insights - The company has experienced a significant acceleration in new orders, particularly in the laboratory services segment, leading to an upward revision of the full-year revenue growth guidance to 12%-16% [3][10]. - The acquisition of Bai Aode is expected to enhance the company's service capabilities in the laboratory services sector, attracting more clients and projects [2][9]. - The revenue for Q3 2025 was approximately RMB 3.64 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9.1%, aligning with expectations [2][3]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - For the first nine months of 2025, the overall new orders increased by over 13% year-on-year, with laboratory services showing a growth rate of over 12% [3][4]. - The CMC segment achieved a revenue growth of 12.7% year-on-year and 29.6% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2025, driven by strong new orders and project deliveries [9][10]. - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 34.3%, stable year-on-year and up 0.6 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2][3]. Client Contributions - The top 20 pharmaceutical companies contributed a revenue growth of 22.2% year-on-year in Q3 2025, despite a slight slowdown from the first half of the year [4][10]. - The management indicated that the strategic expansion with top clients has led to impressive growth across CMC, laboratory services, and bioscience services [4][9]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates that the recovery of overseas financing and a strong performance in the Chinese capital market will lead to a more pronounced recovery among small and medium clients in 2026 [3][10]. - The report projects a slight adjustment in the company's adjusted net profit for 2025E to RMB 1.664 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 7.2% [11][12].

Group 1 - Hong Kong biopharmaceutical stocks experienced a collective surge, with companies like Kangfang Biopharma and Fuhong Hanlin rising over 7%, and Junshi Biosciences, Rongchang Biopharma, and Nuocheng Jianhua increasing over 4% [1] - WuXi Biologics and WuXi AppTec saw gains exceeding 3%, while Baijie Shenzhou rose over 2% [1] Group 2 - The biopharmaceutical sector index reached 1435.868, marking an increase of 51.241 or 3.70% from the previous day [2] - The highest price recorded was 1435.868, with an opening price of 1385.889 and a trading volume of 29.8421 million [2] - The total market capitalization of the sector stands at 1.36 trillion [2] - Zhongtai Securities predicts that by Q3 2025, the pharmaceutical sector's overall performance may continue to diverge, with some leading innovative drug companies expected to maintain rapid growth due to optimized product pipelines and international progress [2] - The CRO/CDMO industry is anticipated to stabilize gradually after a short-term adjustment, benefiting from the recovery of global orders and improved operational efficiency [2] - The medical device sector is showing steady performance, with certain segments like imaging equipment experiencing a rebound, while in vitro diagnostics may face temporary pressure due to external factors [2] - Overall, the pharmaceutical sector's performance is expected to gradually stabilize in Q3, with a recommendation to focus on high-certainty performance, strong growth momentum, and reasonably valued quality targets [2]

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing heightened risk aversion due to overseas news such as tariffs and the U.S. government shutdown, impacting the performance of the Hong Kong pharmaceutical sector which has seen a decline over the past four days but is now experiencing a technical rebound [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Pharmaceutical ETF (159892) rose over 2% during the technical rebound, while the AI Medical Hong Kong Stock Connect ETF (520510) increased nearly 3% [1] - The Hang Seng Pharmaceutical ETF has seen three consecutive days of fund subscriptions, accumulating over 200 million in subscriptions [1] Group 2: Tariff Impact - Dongwu Securities indicates that the impact of tariff policies on China's pharmaceutical industry is limited, as the capital market has already anticipated the drug tariffs, leading to a sufficient price response [1] - Long-term prospects for domestic CRO/CDMO companies remain strong, with global competitiveness expected to continue despite short-term tariff policies [1] Group 3: Supply Chain Dynamics - The U.S. heavily relies on Chinese raw material drug supplies, making it difficult to decouple in the short to medium term [1] - The impact of tariffs on medical devices is minimal, with a positive outlook for domestic substitution and self-sufficiency [1]

Core Insights - The 2025 European Society for Medical Oncology (ESMO) annual meeting is scheduled from October 17 to October 21 in Berlin, Germany, and is expected to showcase significant clinical research outcomes in oncology [1] - The focus of this year's ESMO is on innovative therapies and international presentations, with a notable increase in participation from Chinese pharmaceutical companies, featuring advanced pipelines such as PD-1 combination therapies and ADCs targeting prevalent cancers like non-small cell lung cancer and gastric cancer [1] - According to CICC, the business development (BD) collaborations of Chinese pharmaceutical companies around the meeting are worth monitoring, as previous large transactions, such as between 3SBio and Pfizer, have validated the potential for domestic innovative drugs to enter international markets [1] - The Hang Seng Pharmaceutical ETF (159892) has experienced a five-day adjustment following a previous surge, indicating that valuation concerns have been somewhat alleviated, and the upcoming ESMO meeting may lead to the announcement of significant data and BD transactions, potentially catalyzing the innovative drug sector [1] - In the upstream of innovative drugs, domestic CRO/CDMO companies are expected to maintain global competitiveness, as the trend of international division of labor and global pharmaceutical supply chains is unlikely to be reversed by short-term tariff policies [1] - The positive outlook for the innovative drug industry is anticipated to benefit CXO companies, with a focus on the CXO+AI medical sector, particularly the Hong Kong Stock Connect Medical ETF (520510) [1]

Core Viewpoint - The market continues to focus on technology trends post-National Day holiday, with the pharmaceutical sector experiencing some capital outflow and relatively volatile performance, but the main logic of innovation remains intact [1] Group 1: Market Performance - After the National Day holiday, the overall market remains dominated by technology trends, while the pharmaceutical sector has seen a phase of capital outflow and is performing relatively weakly [1] - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell by 0.51%, with the pharmaceutical and biological sector down by 1.20%, ranking 25th among 31 primary sub-industries [1] - The pharmaceutical sub-sectors showed mixed performance, with traditional Chinese medicine and pharmaceutical commerce rising by 1.51% and 0.64% respectively, while other sectors like medical devices and chemical pharmaceuticals saw declines [1] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - It is suggested to increase allocation to high-quality targets with key data readout catalysts, potential significant BD transaction expectations, and global potential during market dips [1] - In light of the long-term complexities of Sino-US relations, it is recommended to actively select low-valuation, well-structured, and fundamentally sound domestic demand sectors based on Q3 performance [1] Group 3: Q3 Performance Expectations - The pharmaceutical sector is expected to see continued performance differentiation in Q3 2025, with some leading innovative drug companies maintaining rapid growth due to optimized product pipelines and international progress [2] - The CRO/CDMO industry is anticipated to stabilize gradually, benefiting from global order recovery and improved operational efficiency [2] - The overall performance of the medical device sector is stable, with certain segments like imaging equipment showing signs of recovery, while some traditional Chinese medicine and medical service companies face short-term growth pressures [2] Group 4: Market Dynamics - Since the beginning of 2025, the pharmaceutical sector has achieved a return of 21.87%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 4.54 percentage points [4] - The current valuation of the pharmaceutical sector is 27.0 times PE, with a premium of 16.0% compared to the overall A-share market (excluding financials) [4] - The TTM valuation for the pharmaceutical sector stands at 30.9 times PE, which is below the historical average of 34.9 times PE, indicating a premium of 24.4% relative to the overall A-share market (excluding financials) [4]

Summary of WuXi AppTec Co. Investor Day Company Overview - **Company**: WuXi AppTec Co. (2359.HK) - **Event**: Annual Investor Day held on September 25 Key Industry Insights - **CRDMO Business Model**: The company continues to emphasize the strength of its Contract Research, Development, and Manufacturing Organization (CRDMO) model, focusing on winning new projects and deepening customer relationships [1][2] - **Operational Excellence**: Management highlighted operational excellence as a key driver for sustaining gross margins and ensuring high-quality delivery, especially in light of future peptide capacity expansion and overseas growth [1][2] Financial Performance and Projections - **Operational Data**: The company provided detailed operational data, showcasing improvements in technical capabilities and operational efficiency [1] - **Customer Retention**: Customer retention remains high at 98%, with the top 300 clients accounting for 70% of total business [5] - **Market Share**: The company maintains a stable 16% market share in small molecules and captured approximately 20% share in 40 approved small molecule projects from 2024 to 1H25 [6] Technological Advancements - **Digital Operations**: Adoption of digital operations and advanced bioanalytical platforms has led to significant productivity improvements, including a 30% reduction in project turnaround time year-over-year [7] - **Manufacturing Efficiency**: Facility ramp-up times have dramatically decreased from 22.6 months in 2017 to just 2.4 months in 2024, supported by systematic employee training programs [7] Capacity Expansion - **Investment in D&M**: Investment in Drug Manufacturing (D&M) capacity has risen to 85%, targeting high-quality molecules and mitigating margin dilution [8] - **Key Projects**: - Taixing API site: Four new plants operational within the past year, with rapid construction times [8] - Singapore: First small molecule plant expected by January 2027 [8] - US site: Expected to be the largest overseas facility, with operations beginning in 4Q26 [8] Risks and Challenges - **Legislative Risks**: Key upside risk includes the potential exclusion of WuXi from proposed legislation affecting federally-funded projects. Downside risks include pricing pressure from peers and regulatory uncertainties [9][10] - **Market Conditions**: The company remains neutral-rated due to uncertainties from the proposed BIOSECURE bill [10] Conclusion - **Investment Thesis**: WuXi AppTec is positioned as a global leader in drug research and development outsourcing, with strong fundamentals and ongoing investments in capacity and capabilities. However, the company faces potential legislative and market risks that could impact future performance [10]

Summary of the Conference Call on the CRO and CDMO Industry Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **CRO (Contract Research Organization)** and **CDMO (Contract Development and Manufacturing Organization)** industries, highlighting their performance and future outlook for 2025 [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments Performance Metrics - The **CRO sector** in A-shares experienced a revenue growth rate of nearly **13%** and a profit increase of **62%** in the first half of 2025, driven by improvements in overseas markets, strong demand for new molecules, and a recovery in the domestic market [1][3]. - **CDMO companies** showed a significant order reversal, with expectations for continued high growth in performance from the second half of 2025 to 2026, despite a slowdown in order growth in the first half of 2025 [1][6]. Geopolitical Impact - Geopolitical risks have historically impacted the CRO sector's valuations, but in 2025, these risks have not significantly affected overseas performance, indicating a gradual reduction in geopolitical uncertainties [4][5]. Future Trends - The CRO industry is expected to maintain a double-digit revenue growth rate and a **62%** profit increase in the second half of 2025, supported by improved capacity utilization, stable pricing, and AI applications to control costs [5][10]. - The **CDMO sector** is anticipated to continue its recovery, with a positive turning point in the domestic market and accelerated financing in the primary market [6][12]. Additional Important Insights Company Recommendations - Recommended companies include **WuXi Biologics**, which has a relatively low valuation and clear performance acceleration, and **Kanglong Chemical**, benefiting from the Fed's interest rate cuts [11]. - **Hao Yuan Medicine** is highlighted for its strong growth in ADC (Antibody-Drug Conjugate) business, with significant changes expected post-capacity expansion [11]. Domestic Market Dynamics - The domestic biopharmaceutical and chemical reagent sectors have shown accelerated performance, with notable improvements in order volumes across various stages of clinical research [7][8]. - The CRO industry is expected to see a continued increase in new orders, with a positive outlook for both revenue and profit starting in 2026 [9]. Outsourcing Trends - The CRO industry's penetration rate is projected to increase, with expectations that outsourcing rates could reach **60%** in the biotech sector, driven by ongoing industry specialization [14]. Capacity Transfer - The trend of capacity transfer to China is ongoing, with Chinese companies expected to capture more overseas orders due to their competitive advantages in both small and large molecule sectors [15][17]. Investor Guidance - Investors are advised to monitor various indicators such as pricing, order status, personnel conditions, and capacity utilization to better understand the CRO industry's development dynamics [18].