中金公司研报称，5月12日，中美发布联合声明，自5月14日下调关税，双方并暂停实施对彼此的24%关 税税率90天，其余所谓的"对等关税"则全部取消。近期高频贸易数据显示，中国到美国的航运价格上涨 较快，而中国到欧洲的航运价格平稳，这可能反映关税下调后短期出口回暖现象。航运量数据还未出现 明显的增长，但是在港集装箱船数量、集装箱船预订量这些领先指标已开始反映短期对美出口有回暖迹 象。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has demonstrated resilient performance in a volatile market environment, outperforming the broader S&P 500 index [1]. Group 1: Company Performance - Goldman Sachs is identified as a leading large-cap US investment bank [1]. - The firm has successfully navigated a challenging year for markets, indicating strong operational capabilities [1]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The focus is on identifying high-quality companies with strong balance sheets and shareholder-friendly policies [1]. - A disciplined approach to valuation is emphasized, alongside a mix of quantitative and qualitative measures to uncover underappreciated opportunities [1].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs indicates that the labor market needs to weaken significantly before the Federal Reserve can consider restarting a loosening cycle, and this weakness may take several months to manifest [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Federal Reserve Stance** - The Federal Reserve is currently in a wait-and-see mode, awaiting the resolution of uncertainties in the market [1] - There is a high likelihood that interest rates will remain unchanged in the upcoming meeting [1] - **Labor Market Insights** - Recent employment data supports the Federal Reserve's cautious approach [1] - Any signs of weakness in the labor market may take months to become apparent [1]

王曙光认为，这深刻体现了监管层推动资本市场高质量发展的坚定决心：一方面着力提升上市公司质 量，夯实资本市场健康稳定发展的基石；另一方面持续完善投资者保护机制，切实维护投资者合法权 益。这不仅是对国际成熟投资理念的传承，更是中国资本市场走向成熟、迈向高质量发展的重要标志。 转自：新华财经 新华财经北京5月7日电（记者闫鹏） "本次发布会释放了系统性政策信号，既回应了当前市场关切，也 为巩固经济回升向好态势提供了有力支撑。"中金公司管理委员会成员王曙光7日表示，会议强调通过政 策协同稳定各方信心，在多个方面响应了4月25日中共中央政治局会议"稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预 期"的会议精神，体现了政策连续性，并进一步细化了相关实施路径。 国务院新闻办公室于2025年5月7日举行新闻发布会，介绍了"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情 况并答记者问。会上，人民银行宣布加大宏观调控强度，推出降准降息等三大类、十项举措；金融监管 总局提出完善房地产系列融资制度等八项增量政策；证监会提出将突出服务新质生产力发展的重要着力 点，大力推动中长期资金入市等。 王曙光表示，会议指出"中国资产的配置价值和吸引力在持续提升"，提出"维 ...

Industry Overview - The Zacks Investment Bank industry is poised to benefit from increased trading income due to heightened market volatility and client activity amid geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty [1][4] - Investments in artificial intelligence (AI) and technology are expected to enhance long-term efficiency despite short-term cost pressures [1][5] - The industry consists of firms providing financial products and services, including advisory transactions to corporations, governments, and financial institutions [3] Current Challenges - Underwriting and advisory businesses are facing challenges due to ongoing economic ambiguity, tariff wars, and stalled pro-business policies, which may limit overall revenue growth [2][7] - The M&A rebound has not materialized as expected, leading to economic uncertainty and a slowdown in the U.S. economy [7] Performance Metrics - The Zacks Investment Bank industry ranks 72, placing it in the top 29% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating solid near-term prospects [8][9] - The industry's earnings estimates have been revised upward by 4.8% since December 2024, reflecting growing analyst confidence [10] Stock Market Performance - The Zacks Investment Bank industry has outperformed its sector and the S&P 500 over the past two years, with a collective stock surge of 45.5% compared to 24.6% for the S&P 500 [12] Valuation Insights - The industry has a trailing 12-month price-to-tangible book ratio (P/TBV) of 2.31X, above the five-year median of 2.13X, and is trading at a discount compared to the S&P 500's 11.58X [15][18] Investment Opportunities - **Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. (IBKR)**: A global electronic market maker with a market cap of $61.7 billion, shares have increased by 29.9% over the past year [20][23] - **Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD)**: A financial services company with a market cap of $30.6 billion, shares have surged 93.5% over the past year [26][29] - **BGC Group, Inc. (BGC)**: A financial brokerage and technology company with a market cap of $3.7 billion, shares have decreased by 6.1% over the past year [30][33]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of a multi-strategy dynamic allocation approach to capture style rotation opportunities in the market, utilizing quantitative indicators to assess the allocation value of different styles or strategies [1][6]. Summary by Sections Style Timing Framework to Strategy Rotation Model - The style timing model can effectively avoid high-risk phases but may miss some upward opportunities in styles. Historical data is used to identify similar past indicators to predict future performance [3][26]. - A voting method is employed to integrate multiple indicators, resulting in a comprehensive style timing model that has shown to reduce risk while maintaining a lower annualized return compared to holding styles directly [3][31]. Performance Metrics - The style timing model achieved an annualized return of 16.5% during the backtest period from January 1, 2015, to January 31, 2025, with an excess return of 12.7% over the benchmark [3][39]. - The active quantitative strategy rotation model yielded an annualized return of 36.2% during the backtest period from January 1, 2015, to February 28, 2025, outperforming the benchmark by 28.5% [4][39]. Key Indicators for Style Allocation - The article identifies key indicators for measuring style allocation value, including valuation difference, active inflow rate difference, and combination temporal correlation [2][17]. - Historical data shows that a larger valuation difference correlates with better future excess returns, while a significant active inflow rate difference indicates potential overreaction risks [2][10]. Latest Insights and Recommendations - As of March 2025, the recommendation is to favor small-cap and growth styles while maintaining a neutral stance on value and dividend styles [4][35]. - The report suggests holding indices like the CSI 2000 for small-cap and the National Growth Index for growth styles, along with specific active quantitative strategies [4][35]. Multi-Dimensional Timing Indicators - The article discusses the construction of a multi-dimensional timing indicator system that includes valuation difference, market participation, and combination consistency to assess future style performance [18][22]. - The effectiveness of these indicators is tested, showing that they can provide valuable insights into future excess returns across different styles [22][23]. Strategy Rotation and Dynamic Allocation - The article outlines a strategy for dynamic allocation and rotation among styles based on multi-dimensional timing indicators, aiming to optimize returns while managing risks [37][39]. - The dynamic allocation strategy is designed to adjust holdings based on the prevailing market conditions and style performance indicators [37][39].