Market Overview - The FTSE China A50 Index components showed varied performance, with the liquor sector rising throughout the day while the semiconductor sector experienced a decline in the afternoon [1] Insurance Sector - China Life Insurance, China Pacific Insurance, and Ping An Insurance had market capitalizations of CNY 376.78 billion, CNY 356.91 billion, and CNY 1,017.95 billion respectively, with trading volumes of CNY 0.75 billion, CNY 2.22 billion, and CNY 0.84 billion [3] - The stock prices changed as follows: China Life Insurance decreased by CNY 0.73 (-1.93%), China Pacific Insurance decreased by CNY 0.55 (-0.97%), and Ping An Insurance decreased by CNY 0.14 (-1.62%) [3] Liquor Industry - Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Wuliangye had market capitalizations of CNY 1,782.39 billion, CNY 217.50 billion, and CNY 472.00 billion respectively, with trading volumes of CNY 3.95 billion, CNY 2.00 billion, and CNY 2.48 billion [3] - Stock price changes included Kweichow Moutai increasing by CNY 2.38 (+1.35%), Shanxi Fenjiu increasing by CNY 0.82 (+0.68%), and Wuliangye increasing by CNY 2.77 (+0.20%) [3] Semiconductor Sector - Northern Huachuang, Cambricon Technologies, and Hygon had market capitalizations of CNY 238.96 billion, CNY 223.82 billion, and CNY 314.69 billion respectively, with trading volumes of CNY 1.47 billion, CNY 1.23 billion, and CNY 2.64 billion [3] - The stock prices changed as follows: Northern Huachuang decreased by CNY 7.77 (-1.43%), Cambricon Technologies decreased by CNY 1.51 (-1.10%), and Hygon decreased by CNY 2.82 (-0.84%) [3] Automotive Sector - BYD, Great Wall Motors, and Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway had market capitalizations of CNY 187.27 billion, CNY 1,790.16 billion, and CNY 280.83 billion respectively, with trading volumes of CNY 3.97 billion, CNY 0.31 billion, and CNY 0.56 billion [3] - Stock price changes included BYD decreasing by CNY 1.08 (-0.33%), Great Wall Motors decreasing by CNY 0.08 (-0.36%), and Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway increasing by CNY 0.03 (+0.53%) [3] Shipping and Oil Sector - COSCO Shipping Holdings, Sinopec, and PetroChina had market capitalizations of CNY 235.91 billion, CNY 688.67 billion, and CNY 1,570.32 billion respectively, with trading volumes of CNY 0.77 billion, CNY 1.08 billion, and CNY 0.76 billion [3] - The stock prices changed as follows: COSCO Shipping Holdings remained unchanged, Sinopec decreased by CNY 0.09 (-0.59%), and PetroChina increased by CNY 0.01 (+0.12%) [3] Coal and Battery Sector - China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and CATL had market capitalizations of CNY 185.95 billion, CNY 745.07 billion, and CNY 1,234.66 billion respectively, with trading volumes of CNY 0.79 billion, CNY 0.69 billion, and CNY 7.95 billion [3] - Stock price changes included China Shenhua increasing by CNY 7.49 (+2.84%), Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry decreasing by CNY 0.22 (-0.58%), and CATL increasing by CNY 0.03 (+0.16%) [3] Other Sectors - Various sectors such as food and beverage, electronics, and pharmaceuticals showed mixed performance in terms of market capitalization and stock price changes [4]

Group 1 - PVC futures main contract experienced fluctuations, reaching a peak of 4930.00 yuan, closing at 4920.00 yuan with a 0.70% increase [1] - Institutions predict PVC prices will remain weak due to increased supply and low demand, with expectations of low-level fluctuations [1][2] - The supply side is pressured by new production capacities from companies like Wanhua Chemical and Tianjin Bohua, while demand remains sluggish, particularly in the real estate sector [1][2] Group 2 - The Indian PVC BIS policy has been postponed for another six months, which may positively impact future PVC exports [2] - The market anticipates an improvement in the oversupply situation due to the impact of anti-involution policies and sentiment in the building materials sector [2] - The expected trading range for the PVC 2509 contract is between 4800 and 5100 yuan, indicating low-level fluctuations [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co., Ltd. has applied for a patent related to the calculation method for propylene loss during the regeneration of propylene protection beds and liquid phase dryers, which aims to control production costs and improve economic efficiency [1] Group 2 - Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co., Ltd. was established in 2005 and is located in Yinchuan City, primarily engaged in the manufacturing of chemical raw materials and chemical products [2] - The company has a registered capital of 733.336 million RMB and has made investments in 16 enterprises [2] - The company has participated in 5,000 bidding projects and holds 438 patents along with 23 trademark registrations and 774 administrative licenses [2]

Financial Sector - The banking sector showed a general upward trend with notable performances from major banks such as China Life Insurance and Ping An Insurance, with market capitalizations of 380.77 billion and 1,023.96 billion respectively [4] - China Life Insurance experienced a slight decline of 0.29% while Ping An Insurance decreased by 0.58% [4] Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor sector displayed mixed results, with North Huachuang's market capitalization at 241.30 billion and a decrease of 0.32% [4] - Cambrian's stock price increased slightly by 0.13%, while Haiguang Information saw a decline of 0.49% [4] Automotive Sector - The automotive sector, led by BYD with a market capitalization of 1,790.49 billion, experienced a minor decline of 0.31% [4] - Great Wall Motors and China Railway High-speed also showed slight increases of 0.41% and 1.05% respectively [4] Energy Sector - In the energy sector, China Petroleum and China Petrochemical had market capitalizations of 1,588.62 billion and 693.52 billion respectively, with China Petroleum increasing by 1.28% [4] - China Shipping Development remained stable with no change [4] Coal Industry - The coal industry saw Shaanxi Coal and China Shenhua with market capitalizations of 750.83 billion and 185.66 billion respectively [4] - China Shenhua's stock price increased by 4.03% while Shaanxi Coal remained unchanged [4] Food and Beverage Sector - The food and beverage sector included major players like Haitian Flavor Industry with a market capitalization of 228.10 billion, which increased by 0.46% [5] - Other companies in this sector showed stable performances with minor fluctuations [5] Electronics and Pharmaceuticals - The electronics sector, represented by Hon Hai Precision Industry, had a market capitalization of 365.78 billion and a slight increase of 0.34% [5] - In pharmaceuticals, Hengrui Medicine's market capitalization was 529.06 billion, with a notable increase of 0.99% [5] Logistics and Medical Devices - The logistics sector, led by SF Holding, had a market capitalization of 2,415.92 billion, experiencing a decline of 0.88% [5] - In medical devices, Mindray Medical's market capitalization was 172.94 billion, with a minor decrease of 0.02% [5] Metals and Construction - The non-ferrous metals sector included Zijin Mining with a market capitalization of 247.51 billion, which saw a decline of 3.38% [5] - China State Construction had a market capitalization of 1,700.78 billion, with a slight increase of 0.67% [5]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-07-09甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 1.部分装置停车：榆林凯越、新疆新业等。 2.伊朗甲醇开工降低；港口库存处于低位。 3.荆门60万吨/年醋酸装置已于5月16日出产品；新疆中和合众60万吨/年醋酸本月下旬 有投产计划。 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2509： 1、基本面：港口方面，短期尚有部分内地货源流入套利，且本周进口到货集中，库存或有累积风险，另随着伊朗装置 逐步恢复，后续进口量回升预期下，短期业者信心不足，不过伊朗中止与联合国核监督机构合作，宏观面尚存支撑，短 期港口甲醇多空博弈下震荡为主。内地方面，上游甲醇企业库存不多，加之近期产区甲醇装置集中检修，供应端并无压 力，对行情有一定支撑。 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年07月09日 巨化股份（600160.SH） 制冷剂价格持续上涨，2025 年上半年业绩高速增长 | 公司研究·公司快评  | |  | 基础化工·化学制品 | 投资评级：优于大市（维持）  | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 杨林 | 010-88005379 | yanglin6@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980520120002 | | 证券分析师： | 张歆钰 | 021-60375408 | zhangxinyu4@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524080004 | 事项： 公司公告：2025 年 7 月 8 日，公司发布《2025 年半年度业绩预增公告》及《2025 年上半年主要经营数据 公告》。根据公司公告，经财务部门初步测算，预计 2025 半年度，公司实现归母净利润为 19.7 亿元到 21.3 亿元，与上年同期相比增长 136%-155%。预计 2025 半年度，公司扣非后归母净利润为 19.5 亿元到 21.1 亿 元，与上年同期相比增长 146%-166% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company [6][4] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 491-513 million RMB for 25H1, representing a year-on-year increase of 48%-55% [1][6] - The growth in net profit is primarily driven by the expansion in advanced electronic materials and battery materials, as well as the reduction of losses in biomass production [2][3] - The company is releasing production capacity for advanced electronic materials and battery materials, which is expected to further enhance profitability [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 25H1, the company anticipates a net profit of 4.91-5.13 billion RMB, with a non-recurring net profit of 4.71-4.93 billion RMB, both showing a year-on-year increase of 48%-55% [1][6] - The second quarter is projected to yield a net profit of 2.84-3.06 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 46%-58% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 37%-48% [1][2] Growth Drivers - The growth in net profit is attributed to the demand in AI and other fields, which has led to increased production and sales of advanced electronic materials and battery materials [2][3] - The company is expanding its market share and sales volume in synthetic resins due to new fields of application [2] Production Capacity and Future Outlook - The company is gradually releasing production capacity for advanced electronic materials, including 1000 tons/year of PPO resin and 1000 tons/year of porous carbon [3] - Future expansion plans include starting projects for 2000 tons/year of PPO/OPE resin and other resin products, which are expected to contribute to profitability [3][4] Valuation and Price Target - The net profit forecasts for 25-27 are adjusted to 1.20 billion, 1.39 billion, and 1.61 billion RMB, representing year-on-year growth of 39%, 16%, and 15% respectively [4] - The target price is set at 34.08 RMB, based on a 24x PE valuation for 25, reflecting an increase from the previous target of 27.09 RMB [4][6]

Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in domestic excavator sales, with a year-on-year growth exceeding 20% in the first half of the year, indicating a recovery in the construction machinery sector [5] - The investment in ultra-high voltage projects is accelerating, with expected investments surpassing 650 billion yuan in 2025, suggesting strong growth potential in the energy sector [5] - Global semiconductor sales reached 59 billion USD in May, marking a year-on-year increase of 19.8%, reflecting robust demand in the technology sector [5] Industry Updates - The National Development and Reform Commission has allocated an additional 10 billion yuan for central budget investments to support employment initiatives, which is expected to create jobs for 310,000 key groups [4] - Seven departments have issued a document to expedite the development of a universal childcare service system, indicating a focus on social infrastructure [4] - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission is expanding the range of institutions participating in the southbound trading scheme, which may enhance market liquidity [4] Company Focus - Wanma Co., Ltd. (002276) is set to increase its annual production capacity to 60,000 tons after the completion of its high-performance polymer insulation project, raising its market share from 15% to approximately 20% [6] - United Chemical (301209) plans to invest 120 million yuan in Zhuoguangrui Technology, acquiring a 19.35% stake post-investment [6] - Jinling Mining (000655) anticipates a net profit growth of 66.48% to 111.54% year-on-year for the first half of the year, driven by increased sales of its main product, iron concentrate [6] - Keda Intelligent (300222) has a subsidiary that holds an 18% stake in a company supplying charging piles for Xiaomi's electric vehicles, indicating strategic partnerships in the EV sector [6] Market Review and Outlook - On July 8, the market opened slightly higher and experienced a steady upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing up 0.7% at 3,497 points, reaching a new high for the period [7] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets increased to 1.4 trillion yuan, up 240 billion yuan from the previous trading day, indicating heightened market activity [7] - The report notes a rotation in market sentiment, with funds shifting from defensive dividend sectors to undervalued growth sectors, particularly in the ChiNext index, which shows greater elasticity [8] - The recent emphasis on anti-involution policies and supply-side reforms suggests potential investment opportunities in sectors aligned with these themes [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the dedication and contributions of Xia Jie, a senior technician in the chemical quality inspection field at Yunnan Yuntianhua Red Phosphorus Chemical Co., Ltd, showcasing her journey from a novice to a key technical figure in the company, and her significant role in enhancing product quality and operational efficiency [3][4][5]. Group 1: Professional Development - Xia Jie began her career at Red Phosphorus Chemical in 2000, quickly adapting to complex instruments and data analysis through rigorous learning and mentorship [4]. - Over the years, she transformed from a beginner to a technical expert, playing a crucial role in the analysis and guidance of new equipment trials and product development [4]. Group 2: Technical Innovations - In 2019, Xia Jie contributed to a significant technical upgrade involving a new potassium dihydrogen phosphate production process, which required the laboratory to provide 207 data points daily across 23 control points and 83 analysis projects [4]. - She developed and standardized analysis methods that significantly reduced operational costs and improved the success rate of equipment trials [4][5]. Group 3: Contributions to Company Growth - Xia Jie has been instrumental in the internationalization of the company's brand, creating mathematical models for efficient resource utilization, which supported the integrated production model of "mining-acid-fertilizer" [5]. - Her efforts have strengthened the market position of the "Bai Xian" brand in Vietnam, enhancing the company's export advantages [5]. Group 4: Talent Development - Xia Jie established a "master-apprentice + school-enterprise linkage" model to train over 30 technical personnel, facilitating their advancement to engineering and technician roles [6][7]. - She organized over 30 skill training sessions and chemical inspection competitions, promoting skill development and recognition among employees [6][7]. Group 5: Recognition and Awards - Over the years, Xia Jie has received numerous accolades, including the title of "National Labor Model" in 2025, reflecting her exceptional contributions to the industry [7].

甲醇聚烯烃早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/07/09 甲 醇 日期 动力煤期 货 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 进口利润 主力基差 盘面MTO 利润 2025/07/0 2 801 2465 2480 2460 2550 2445 2603 277 345 18 45 -1240 2025/07/0 3 801 2470 2468 2500 2550 2445 2610 280 345 48 45 -1268 2025/07/0 4 801 2455 2465 2495 2550 2445 2610 277 340 58 35 -1219 2025/07/0 7 801 2437 2448 2485 2550 2445 2585 277 340 36 25 -1219 2025/07/0 8 801 2420 2428 2475 2540 2445 2565 277 340 18 20 -1174 日度变化 0 -17 -20 -10 -10 0 -20 0 0 -18 -5 45 观点 高进口开始兑现，累库开始发生，盘面低估值，等待淡 ...