Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the recent trading performance of China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), indicating a decline in stock price and net financing outflow on July 31 [1] - On July 31, CNOOC's stock price fell by 1.25%, with a trading volume of 883 million yuan, and a net financing outflow of 22.59 million yuan [1] - As of July 31, the total margin balance for CNOOC was 1.698 billion yuan, with a financing balance of 1.687 billion yuan, representing 2.16% of the circulating market value, which is below the 20th percentile of the past year [1] Group 2 - CNOOC, established on August 20, 1999, is primarily engaged in the exploration, production, and sales of crude oil and natural gas, with operations in various countries including China, Canada, the USA, the UK, Nigeria, and Brazil [2] - The company's revenue composition shows that oil and gas sales account for 84.57%, trade for 13.11%, and other businesses for 2.32% [2] - For the first quarter of 2025, CNOOC reported a revenue of 106.854 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.14%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 36.563 billion yuan, down 7.95% year-on-year [2] Group 3 - Since its A-share listing, CNOOC has distributed a total of 224.335 billion yuan in dividends, with 176.364 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3]

Group 1: Macro Insights - In July, the manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.3% from 49.7% in June, indicating a marginal slowdown and reflecting the initial effects of the "anti-involution" policy and disruptions from extreme weather [2][4][6] - The non-manufacturing business activity index also fell to 50.1% from 50.5% in June, remaining below seasonal levels [2][4] - The "anti-involution" policy has suppressed industrial production in certain sectors, while also pushing up prices for some goods due to reduced capacity utilization [2][4] Group 2: Industry Performance - The equipment manufacturing PMI has maintained expansion for three consecutive months, while high-tech and consumer goods sectors showed a decline [2][4] - High-frequency indicators for July show a rebound in port activity, while real estate sales continue to weaken [4] - The construction sector's performance is mixed, with cement production down 5.3% year-on-year, while coke and blast furnace operating rates are higher than last year [4] Group 3: Corporate Earnings and Forecasts - For overseas Chinese stocks, the earnings growth rate for the first half of 2025 is expected to continue rising, particularly in the materials sector, while technology and healthcare sectors remain robust [5] - As of July 30, the earnings forecast disclosure rate for overseas Chinese stocks is about 17%, with a current overall positive forecast rate of 60% [5] - Tactical allocation suggestions include increasing exposure to leading gaming and e-commerce companies, and focusing on innovative pharmaceuticals and non-bank financials [5] Group 4: Specific Company Insights - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation is expected to maintain a stable dividend policy, with projected net profits of 158.5 billion, 161.7 billion, and 168.5 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [15] - Meta Platforms reported a 22% year-on-year revenue increase to $47.5 billion for Q2, exceeding expectations, driven by strong advertising revenue [16] - Microsoft achieved a 15% year-on-year revenue growth to $281.7 billion for FY2025, benefiting from increased AI demand [23] Group 5: Sectoral Trends - The commercial real estate sector is experiencing a valuation shift due to low capitalization rates and consumer policy catalysts [14] - The semiconductor industry is facing challenges with customer capital expenditure adjustments, particularly affecting companies like Tokyo Electron [19] - The electric power market in the U.S. is tightening, with significant investments in nuclear energy and infrastructure development expected [8]

7月31日，沪深两融数据显示，中国石油获融资买入额0.85亿元，居两市第257位，当日融资偿还额1.02 亿元，净卖出1679.12万元。 来源：金融界 最近三个交易日，29日-31日，中国石油分别获融资买入0.52亿元、0.79亿元、0.85亿元。 融券方面，当日融券卖出15.56万股，净卖出1.29万股。 ...

www.ccxi.com.cn 国际宏观资讯双周报 5 月 20 日–6 月 3 日 2025 年第 10 期 本周资讯一览 热点评论 韩国央行宣布将基准利率下调 25 个基点至 2.5% 经济增长预期大幅下调 经济 财政 政治 国际收支 ESG 主权信用 惠誉将阿根廷主权信用等级由 CCC 上调至 CCC+ 展望维持稳定 | 杜凌轩 | 010-66428877-279 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | lxdu@ccxi.com.cn | | | 王家璐 | 010-66428877-451 | | | | jlwang@ccxi.com.cn | | | 于 嘉 | 010-66428877-242 | | | | jyu@ccxi.com.cn | | | 张晶鑫 | 010-66428877-243 | | | | jxzhang@ccxi.com.cn | | | 易 成 | 010-66428877-246 | | | | chyi@ccxi.com.cn | | | 方菏阳 | 010-66428877-567 | | | | hyfang@ccxi.com.cn | | ...

在全球长期利率持续走低的背景下，中国石油5.6%的股息率犹如磁石般吸引着养老基金的巨量资本。2025年三季报显示，养老保险基金对该企业的持仓规 模创下历史新高，最大单季增持量突破1.7亿股。这一配置选择揭示了资本市场的现实偏好：在充满不确定性的环境中，稳定可期的现金流正成为机构投资 者的生存基石。 01 现金流的双重韧性 中国石油的分红能力经受了多重市场风暴的考验。2014年国际油价经历从每桶110美元暴跌至26美元的极端行情，但其股息率依然稳定在4.2%的基准线上。 2020年全球经济活动几近停摆的至暗时刻，公司现金分红总额仅较上年缩减7个百分点。这种穿越周期的韧性源自深厚的资源禀赋——大庆、长庆等主力油 田的桶油完全成本控制在35美元以下，构筑起50美元油价下的安全边际，即便在最严苛的市场环境中，仍可维持约3%的股息保护垫。 支撑高股息的另一重力量来自资产的持续优化。2025年上半年，四套百万吨级低效炼油装置的关停释放出资源空间，这些资源迅速向广西305亿元120万吨乙 烯项目转移。此类"压旧提新"策略已显现成效：高端化工品利润率较传统油品提升3-5个百分点。与之配合的管理费用缩减8.3亿元、非核心资产处 ...

智通财经APP获悉，壳牌集团(SHEL.US)周四发布第二季度财报，由于油价回落，且旗下油气交易部门 难以应对由突发消息引发的剧烈市场波动，该季利润暴跌32%。数据显示，壳牌Q2经调整净利润为42.6 亿美元，虽低于去年同期的62.9亿美元，但超过了分析师平均预期的37.4亿美元。 过去两年，萨万一直在致力于削减成本、提升可靠性并剥离表现不佳的资产，试图缩小与美国同行之间 的估值差距。这场"冲刺"已开始见效——2025年以来，壳牌的表现已超过其他大型石油公司。 分析师们强调，壳牌的资产负债表已得到改善。公司在5月表示，即便原油价格跌至每桶50美元(远低于 当前水平)，其财务实力仍足以支撑每季度回购超过30亿美元的股票。 今年3月，壳牌宣布计划优先考虑股东回报、加大成本节约力度，并进一步推进液化天然气(LNG)业 务。这一战略更新旨在强化其创造价值的承诺，同时继续聚焦"业绩、纪律与精简运营"。 该计划似乎得到了投资者的认可。今年以来，壳牌股价表现优于许多欧美同行，涨幅达8%。相比之 下，英国石油同期上涨3%，法国道达尔下跌2%，埃克森美孚上涨4%。 值得注意的是，就在一个月前，壳牌针对媒体报道曾声明无意收购英国 ...

壳牌第二季度调整后利润42.6亿美元，预估37.4亿美元。 二季度调整后上游利润17.3亿美元，预估14.8亿美元。 二季度调整后每股收益0.72美元，预估0.60美元。 ...

Group 1 - In 2025, China has 130 companies in the Fortune Global 500, ranking second after the United States with 138 companies [2][5][6] - The top three companies in the Global 500 are Walmart, Amazon, and China's State Grid, with revenue thresholds increasing from $32.1 billion in 2024 to $32.2 billion in 2025 [2][3] - The total revenue of the Global 500 companies is approximately $41.7 trillion, a 1.8% increase from $41 trillion in 2024, while total net profit is $2.98 trillion, showing a slight increase of 0.4% [3][5] Group 2 - The number of Chinese companies in the Global 500 has fluctuated in recent years, peaking at 145 in 2022, then decreasing to 130 in 2025, with the U.S. surpassing China in 2024 [6][9] - Among the 130 Chinese companies, 49 have improved their rankings, while 68 have declined, with State Grid, PetroChina, and Sinopec in the top ten [9][10] - Notable Chinese internet companies like JD.com, Alibaba, and Tencent have seen their rankings rise, with JD.com being the highest-ranked private company from mainland China at 44th [9][10] Group 3 - The total revenue of the 130 Chinese companies is approximately $10.7 trillion, accounting for about 25.66% of the total revenue of the Global 500 [8][10] - Chinese companies' average profit is $4.2 billion, significantly lower than the average profit of $9.7 billion for U.S. companies [8][10] - The most profitable Chinese company is Industrial and Commercial Bank of China with a net profit of $50.85 billion, followed by other major state-owned banks [10][11] Group 4 - Huawei has returned to the top 100 of the Global 500, ranking 83rd with a revenue of $119.8 billion, despite previous challenges due to U.S. sanctions [10][11] - The automotive sector in China is growing, with 10 Chinese automotive companies entering the Global 500, including BYD, which made it into the top 100 for the first time [9][10] - The most profitable company globally remains Saudi Aramco, with a profit of approximately $105 billion, while Nvidia has seen a significant profit increase, entering the top ten for the first time [11]

7月30日，沪深两融数据显示，中国石油获融资买入额0.79亿元，居两市第268位，当日融资偿还额0.92 亿元，净卖出1308.73万元。 最近三个交易日，28日-30日，中国石油分别获融资买入0.99亿元、0.52亿元、0.79亿元。 融券方面，当日融券卖出13.62万股，净卖出12.65万股。 来源：金融界 ...

Core Viewpoint - China's energy self-sufficiency rate is approximately 85%, indicating a strong domestic energy production capability and a well-prepared strategy for energy security [2][17]. Group 1: Energy Self-Sufficiency - The energy self-sufficiency rate of 85% means that for every ten units of energy consumed, China produces about 8.5 units domestically, relying on imports for only 1.5 units [2]. - Coal and renewable energy are significant contributors to China's energy mix, with coal accounting for 54% of primary energy and an annual production of 4 billion tons, sufficient for domestic needs [2][8]. - Oil and natural gas only make up 27% of total energy consumption, highlighting the limited reliance on these imported resources [2]. Group 2: Strategic Preparedness - China has established strategic reserves for oil and gas, including storage bases and gas storage facilities, ensuring energy security even in extreme situations [2][8]. - The country has developed four major cross-border energy corridors with Central Asia, Russia, Myanmar, and Kazakhstan, enhancing its energy supply chain resilience [4][10]. Group 3: Domestic Production Growth - The implementation of the "Seven-Year Action Plan for Oil and Gas Increase" has led to an increase in domestic crude oil production from 189 million tons to 213 million tons, a net increase of 24 million tons [8]. - Natural gas production has risen from 160 billion cubic meters to 245 billion cubic meters, with an annual net increase of 10 billion cubic meters [8]. Group 4: Global Market Position - China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) operates 88 oil and gas projects across 35 countries, allowing for flexibility in case of disruptions in any single project [5][11]. - The global market position as the largest buyer provides China with leverage, as many countries are eager to sell to it, enhancing its energy security [15][17]. Group 5: Future Energy Landscape - China leads globally in solar, wind, and electric vehicle technologies, with significant advancements in energy storage technology [15]. - The future energy landscape indicates that oil consumption will peak while natural gas continues to thrive, with an increasing share of renewables in the energy mix [15].