Group 1 - The "trade-in" policy has expanded this year, covering more product categories and stimulating consumer demand for home appliances, mobile phones, and smart wearable devices [1][2] - Retail sales of home appliances and audio-visual equipment increased by 53% year-on-year in May, while communication equipment sales rose by 33%, indicating a strong impact from the trade-in policy [1][2] - The sales of smart devices, particularly smartwatches, have seen significant growth, with an overall increase of 54% and smartwatches alone achieving an 80% year-on-year increase [2][3] Group 2 - Companies are adapting to the trend of consumption structure upgrades by launching products that meet consumer demands, such as large-screen TVs and smart refrigerators [3][4] - The market for quality products is growing, with companies like Hisense achieving top sales in 4K projectors on platforms like JD.com, reflecting consumer preference for high-quality and health-oriented products [3] - There is a call for companies to increase investment in product research and innovation to align with policy directions and consumer needs, enhancing market competitiveness [4][5]

6月18日，深圳市商务局发布的数据显示，2025年消费品以旧换新相关政策自启动以来，得到消费者踊 跃参与。截至6月16日，通过以旧换新带动汽车销售超7万台，销售金额176亿元。通过以旧换新政策线 上线下（300959）累计销售家电和数码产品1001万台，销售金额191亿元。(人民财讯) ...

6月16日，国家统计局公布了5月份经济运行数据。在消费领域，当月社会消费品零售总额达41326亿 元，同比增长6.4%，较4月提升1.3个百分点，创下2024年以来的最高增速纪录；环比增长0.93%，呈现 显著回暖态势。 7家机构对5月社零增速预测的算术平均值仅为4.85%，实际增速较平均预期值高出1.55个百分点。更值 得关注的是，所有机构预测值均未触及6%关口，其中最低预测值为4.3%，最高预测值也仅5.5%。这一 超预期表现使得社零数据成为5月经济指标中最令人惊喜的亮点。 图片来源：国家统计局 值得注意的是，5月社零增速表现大幅超出市场预期。根据Wind宏观预测平台数据，7家机构对5月社零 增速预测的算术平均值仅为4.85%，实际增速较平均预期值高出1.55个百分点。更值得关注的是，所有 机构预测值均未触及6%关口，其中最低预测值为4.3%，最高预测值也仅5.5%。这一超预期表现使得社 零数据成为5月经济指标中最令人惊喜的亮点。 数据来源：wind 5月消费市场呈现结构性增长特征。限额以上单位商品零售额同比增长了8.2%，增速加快，且较社零总 额增速高出1.8个百分点。 从细分领域看，汽车类零售额略增1 ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market indices experienced a decline, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.13% to 24028.83 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index down 0.06%, and the State-Owned Enterprises Index down 0.23% [1] - The 618 shopping festival coinciding with the national subsidy policy for replacing old products is expected to boost consumer demand for durable goods, including digital products, home appliances, and even automobiles [1] - The demand for durable consumer goods is anticipated to bring prosperity to related industries and provide strong support for the expansion of the domestic market [1] Group 2 - China Galaxy Securities suggests that the A-share market is likely to maintain a volatile trend in the short term, focusing on structural opportunities [1] - Three main lines of opportunity are identified: first, assets with high safety margins, characterized by low valuations and high dividends; second, technology as a long-term allocation focus; third, the consumer sector boosted by policy support [1] - The old-for-new policy is showing effects, with new consumption potential continuously released under the reconstruction of consumer behavior and deep technological empowerment [1] Group 3 - The Hong Kong consumption ETF (513230) combines e-commerce and new consumption, covering relatively scarce new consumption sectors compared to A-shares [2] - The Hang Seng Tech Index ETF (513180) includes both software and hardware technology, encompassing relatively scarce technology leaders compared to A-shares [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that the implementation of the old-for-new policy for consumer goods is crucial for boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand, serving as a "golden key" for economic growth and improving people's livelihoods [1][2]. Group 2 - The old-for-new policy has been expanded this year, including subsidies for new purchases of digital products such as smartphones, tablets, and smartwatches, and increasing the categories of appliances eligible for the program from 8 to 12. Additionally, 300 billion yuan has been allocated to support this initiative [2][3]. - Retail sales of household appliances, audio-visual equipment, communication devices, and furniture saw significant year-on-year growth in May, with increases of 53%, 33%, 30.5%, and 25.6% respectively, contributing to a 1.9 percentage point increase in total retail sales of consumer goods [2][3]. Group 3 - The old-for-new policy is driving explosive demand, leading to accelerated growth in related industries, particularly in green, smart, and high-quality products. In May, production of new energy vehicles, tablets, and electric bicycles increased by 31.7%, 30.9%, and 20.5% respectively [3][4]. Group 4 - There is a noticeable shift in consumer focus towards the performance and safety of products, moving from mere availability to quality. The old-for-new initiative aims to provide consumers with superior products, facilitating a quality upgrade in consumption and contributing to high-quality economic development [4].

Group 1: Policy Changes and Funding - The 2025 "old-for-new" policy has significantly increased funding support to 300 billion yuan, up from 150 billion yuan in 2024[24] - The subsidy scope has expanded to include more products, such as microwaves, water purifiers, dishwashers, rice cookers, and mobile devices[24] - As of the end of May, 162 billion yuan of central government subsidies have been allocated, with 138 billion yuan still pending distribution[7] Group 2: Market Impact and Performance - In April, retail sales of consumer goods grew by 5.1% year-on-year, with significant disparities in growth rates among categories[5] - Home appliance sales surged by 38.8% year-on-year in April, while automotive and communication equipment sales saw declines[39] - By the end of May, nationwide sales under the "old-for-new" program reached 1.1 trillion yuan, with approximately 175 million subsidies issued[33] Group 3: Regional Variations and Challenges - Some regions, like Chongqing, reported a subsidy redemption rate of 82.3%, leading to a suspension of certain subsidy programs due to fund exhaustion[33] - Local governments are adjusting subsidy mechanisms, with some areas implementing phased funding releases to manage demand[61] - The rapid use of subsidies in various regions has raised concerns about potential fraud and the need for improved monitoring mechanisms[65]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese economy showed stable growth in May, driven by effective macro policies and a significant rebound in consumer spending, particularly due to the "old-for-new" policy and e-commerce promotions [1][2][5] Economic Performance - In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41,326 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, the highest growth rate in 2024 [1][2] - The retail sales excluding automobiles amounted to 37,316 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 7.0% [2][4] - From January to May, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 203,171 billion yuan, growing by 5.0% [2][4] Consumer Trends - The "old-for-new" policy significantly boosted sales in various categories, with retail sales of home appliances and audio-visual equipment, communication devices, cultural office supplies, and furniture growing by 53.0%, 33.0%, 30.5%, and 25.6% respectively [1][4] - Online retail sales of physical goods accounted for 24.5% of total retail sales, with food items showing a growth rate of 14.5% [4][6] Regional Performance - Urban retail sales in May reached 36,057 billion yuan, up 6.5%, while rural retail sales were 5,269 billion yuan, growing by 5.4% [5] - For the first five months, urban retail sales totaled 176,490 billion yuan, increasing by 5.1%, and rural retail sales were 26,681 billion yuan, up 4.9% [5] Impact of Promotions - The "618" e-commerce promotion, which started on May 13, combined with the "old-for-new" policy, significantly accelerated online retail sales [5][6] - The total online retail sales reached 60,402 billion yuan from January to May, with a year-on-year growth of 8.5% [6]

Core Insights - The national subsidy program is not ending but is currently in a temporary pause, with the official end date still set for December 31, 2025 [1][3] - The first round of funding has been exhausted faster than expected, with over 150 billion yuan consumed by the end of May, accounting for more than 50% of the total 300 billion yuan allocated for the year [3][4] - The government is implementing stricter regulations to combat fraudulent claims, including linking serial numbers to identification for verification [3][4] Subsidy Details - The subsidy rules remain unchanged, with three main areas of focus: - **Automobiles**: Up to 20,000 yuan for scrapping old vehicles and purchasing new energy vehicles, with additional local incentives [5][8] - **Home Appliances**: Subsidies range from 15% to 20% based on energy efficiency, with a maximum of 2,000 yuan for high-efficiency products [5][8] - **Digital Products**: A 15% subsidy for smartphones, tablets, and smartwatches, capped at 500 yuan [5][8] Consumer Guidance - Consumers are advised to prioritize high-demand items such as air conditioners and high-end smartphones, as these subsidies are expected to deplete quickly [9][12] - Specific search terms on platforms like JD.com can help consumers access subsidies effectively, such as "家电省2000" for home appliances and "数码省2000" for digital products [9][12] - The second round of funding is expected to restart in late June, presenting a critical opportunity for consumers to take advantage of the subsidies before they run out [4][12]

Core Insights - The "618" promotional event has introduced two new features: the simplification of discount methods and the integration of national subsidies, leading to significant consumer interest and engagement [1][2][4] Group 1: New Promotional Methods - The promotional strategies have shifted to simpler and more direct discounts, with platforms eliminating complex discount structures in favor of straightforward price reductions [1][4] - The introduction of national subsidies has allowed certain products to be offered at discounts as low as 50%, enhancing the appeal of the promotions [3][8] - Major brands such as Apple and Xiaomi have seen significant price reductions on their products, with the iPhone 16 Pro being offered at a final price of 5499 yuan after applying various discounts [2][3] Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Trends - There is a notable increase in consumer engagement, with over 20 million products participating in the "618" event, reflecting a strong demand for both high-end and budget-friendly items [3][10] - The trend indicates that consumers are increasingly checking for national subsidies before making purchases, with significant participation from various provinces and cities across China [9][10] - The younger demographic, particularly those born after 2000, is reshaping market demand, showing a preference for high-quality, stylish products that enhance their lifestyle [10] Group 3: Sales Performance - The sales performance during the "618" event has been remarkable, with a 283% increase in total transaction volume for categories like home appliances and digital products compared to last year's "Double 11" event [7] - The national subsidy program has effectively driven sales, with 1.1 trillion yuan in sales attributed to the program and a significant increase in the number of consumers utilizing these subsidies [7][8] - The home appliance sector has experienced continuous double-digit growth, with retail sales in this category increasing by 38.8% in April alone [8] Group 4: Logistics and Service Enhancements - E-commerce platforms are enhancing their logistics services, with initiatives like same-day delivery for products purchased through national subsidy programs [5][6] - The "618" event has seen improvements in the recycling and replacement of old appliances, with comprehensive services offered across various regions [5][6] Group 5: Economic Impact - The "618" event and national subsidies are seen as crucial for stimulating domestic consumption, contributing to a consumption contribution rate of 51.7% in the first quarter of the year [11][12] - Collaborative efforts among government, platforms, and merchants are essential to maximize the potential of shopping festivals in driving economic growth [12]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming 618 shopping festival is facing disruptions as several regions, including Jiangsu and Chongqing, have suspended the issuance of national subsidies for home appliances, raising consumer concerns. However, the Guangdong Provincial Department of Commerce has confirmed that the "old-for-new" policy will not end prematurely, attributing the suspensions to system upgrades and periodic inventory checks [1][2][7]. Group 1: Policy Updates - Chongqing has halted the issuance of subsidies for 27 categories of green smart home appliances and home renovation due to exhausted funds, with plans for a second phase of the "old-for-new" subsidy policy being drafted [2][10]. - Jiangsu's Department of Commerce stated that the suspension of subsidies is due to system upgrades, and both online and offline channels will implement quota management until the end of the year [2][10]. - In Guangdong, while some cities have paused certain subsidies, most regions continue to offer them, with the overall "old-for-new" policy set to last until December 31, 2025 [7][10]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The "old-for-new" policy has significantly boosted consumer spending, with a reported sales volume of 1.1 trillion yuan driven by the program as of May 31, 2025. Approximately 175 million subsidies have been issued to consumers [10][11]. - In Guangdong, the "old-for-new" sales reached 153.45 billion yuan in 2024, benefiting over 11.28 million consumers, making it the largest scale in the country [10][11]. - The National Development and Reform Commission plans to accelerate the allocation of funds to support the "old-for-new" initiative, which is seen as a key driver for consumption recovery and economic stability [10][11].