7月份，制造业采购经理指数为49.3%，比上月下降0.4个百分点；非制造业商务活动指数和综合PMI产 出指数分别为50.1%和50.2%，比上月下降0.4和0.5个百分点，均持续高于临界点。 7月31日，国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会发布了中国采购经理指数。对此，国家 统计局服务业调查中心高级统计师赵庆河进行了解读。 7月份，制造业采购经理指数为49.3%，比上月下降0.4个百分点；非制造业商务活动指数和综合PMI产 出指数分别为50.1%和50.2%，比上月下降0.4和0.5个百分点，均持续高于临界点，我国经济总体产出保 持扩张。 一、制造业采购经理指数有所回落 7月份，受制造业进入传统生产淡季，部分地区高温、暴雨洪涝灾害等因素影响，PMI降至49.3%，制造 业景气水平较上月回落。 （四）新动能持续增长。从重点行业看，装备制造业和高技术制造业PMI分别为50.3%和50.6%，均持续 高于临界点，高端装备制造业保持扩张；消费品行业PMI为49.5%，比上月下降0.9个百分点；高耗能行 业PMI为48.0%，比上月上升0.2个百分点，景气度有所改善。 （五）市场预期回升。生产经营活动预期指数 ...

2025年7月31日国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会发布了中国采购经理指数。对此， 国家统计局服务业调查中心高级统计师赵庆河进行了解读。 7月份，制造业采购经理指数为49.3%，比上月下降0.4个百分点；非制造业商务活动指数和综合PMI产 出指数分别为50.1%和50.2%，比上月下降0.4和0.5个百分点，均持续高于临界点，我国经济总体产出保 持扩张。 一、制造业采购经理指数有所回落 7月份，受制造业进入传统生产淡季，部分地区高温、暴雨洪涝灾害等因素影响，PMI降至49.3%，制造 业景气水平较上月回落。 （四）新动能持续增长。从重点行业看，装备制造业和高技术制造业PMI分别为50.3%和50.6%，均持续 高于临界点，高端装备制造业保持扩张；消费品行业PMI为49.5%，比上月下降0.9个百分点；高耗能行 业PMI为48.0%，比上月上升0.2个百分点，景气度有所改善。 （五）市场预期回升。生产经营活动预期指数为52.6%，比上月上升0.6个百分点，制造业企业对近期市 场发展信心有所增强。从行业看，汽车、铁路船舶航空航天设备、电气机械器材等行业生产经营活动预 期指数均位于55.0%以上较高景 ...

Manufacturing Sector - In July, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) decreased to 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity due to seasonal factors and adverse weather conditions [2][3] - The production index remained in expansion at 50.5%, while the new orders index fell to 49.4%, reflecting a slowdown in market demand [3] - Large enterprises maintained expansion with a PMI of 50.3%, while medium-sized enterprises improved to 49.5%, and small enterprises decreased to 46.4% [4] - The price index showed an upward trend, with the main raw materials purchasing price index rising to 51.5%, marking the first increase above the critical point since March [3][4] - New momentum in the manufacturing sector is evident, with the equipment manufacturing PMI at 50.3% and high-tech manufacturing PMI at 50.6%, both above the critical point [4] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index stood at 50.1%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, but still above the critical point [5] - The service sector's business activity index was stable at 50.0%, with significant growth in transportation and tourism-related industries, while real estate and residential services lagged [5][6] - The construction sector's business activity index fell to 50.6%, influenced by adverse weather conditions, with a corresponding decrease in market expectations [6] Composite PMI - The Composite PMI Output Index decreased to 50.2%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating overall expansion in production and business activities [7] - The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index were recorded at 50.5% and 50.1%, respectively, both indicating continued expansion [7]

编者按7月30日召开的中共中央政治局会议研判了当前经济形势，部署了下半年经济工作。上半年中国经济顶住压力，实现了5.3%的平稳增长。面对外部 环境复杂多变、内部风险挑战增多的局面，下半年经济形势和政策走向备受瞩目。对此，围绕财政收入、固定资产投资、产业经济、对外开放、创新动 能、地区经济六个维度，中国经济时报邀请国家高端智库等权威机构专家，研判上半年经济形势，展望下半年政策走向。 智观年中经济形势 核心观点： 下一步，要进一步做好"两重"建设和"两新"工作，用好新型政策性金融工具，更好发挥政府投资带动作用，加快推进传统产业改造升级，加 快培育和壮大新质生产力，聚焦提高投资效益精准发力，多方面拓展有效投资空间，充分激发民间投资活力，持续发挥投资对优化供给结构的关键作用。 ■杨萍 杜月 今年以来，各地区各部门深入贯彻落实党中央、国务院决策部署，统筹用好中央预算内投资、超长期特别国债、地方政府专项债等政策工具，加快推 进"两重"建设和"两新"工作，聚焦关键领域和薄弱环节积极扩大有效投资，推动固定资产投资平稳增长。从全年看，外部环境仍然复杂严峻、具有不确定 性。下一步，要深入贯彻落实4月25日中共中央政治局会议精神， ...

国家统计局数据显示，7月份，受制造业进入传统生产淡季，部分地区高温、暴雨洪涝灾害等因素影 响，PMI降至49.3%，制造业景气水平较上月回落。从重点行业看，装备制造业和高技术制造业PMI分 别为50.3%和50.6%，均持续高于临界点，高端装备制造业保持扩张；消费品行业PMI为49.5%，比上月 下降0.9个百分点；高耗能行业PMI为48.0%，比上月上升0.2个百分点，景气度有所改善。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The industrial and information technology sectors in China are experiencing steady growth and transformation, with a focus on high-quality development, innovation, and green transformation, supported by various government policies and initiatives [1][2][3]. Group 1: Industrial Economic Performance - In the first half of the year, the industrial economy showed resilience, with the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increasing by 6.4% year-on-year, and manufacturing investment growing by 7.5% [2][3]. - The contribution of key industries such as electrical machinery, automobiles, electronics, and chemicals to industrial growth has increased, with all 31 provinces reporting year-on-year growth in industrial added value [2][3]. - High-tech manufacturing added value grew by 9.5%, contributing 23.3% to the overall industrial growth, while digital product manufacturing increased by 9.9%, outperforming the overall industrial average [7][8]. Group 2: Policy Support and Future Initiatives - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) plans to implement new growth stabilization plans for key industries such as steel, non-ferrous metals, and petrochemicals, focusing on structural adjustments and eliminating outdated production capacity [4][5]. - The MIIT aims to enhance development quality and foster new growth drivers through technological innovation and the integration of industry and technology [4][5]. - The government is promoting green transformation in traditional industries, emphasizing the need for deep green transitions in sectors like steel and chemicals [6][8]. Group 3: High-End Equipment Manufacturing - The equipment manufacturing sector saw a 10.2% increase in added value, significantly contributing to overall industrial growth [9][10]. - Key products such as railway vehicles, packaging equipment, and charging piles experienced rapid growth, with fixed asset investment in manufacturing achieving double-digit growth [10][11]. - The automotive industry maintained strong growth, with production and sales of new energy vehicles increasing by 41.4% and 40.3% year-on-year, respectively [10][11].

Core Insights - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, China's manufacturing industry is steadily developing, with accelerated high-end and intelligent transformation, leading to rapid growth in equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors [1][2] Group 1: Manufacturing Growth - The sales revenue of manufacturing enterprises accounts for approximately 29% of total enterprise revenue, providing a solid foundation for economic growth [2] - The average annual growth rates for equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sales revenue reached 9.6% and 10.4% respectively, with further growth in the first half of the year to 8.9% and 11.9% [2] - The industrial robot and service robot manufacturing sectors experienced remarkable annual growth rates of 23.2% and 17.2% [2] Group 2: Private Sector Dynamics - The private economy is vibrant, with its sales revenue accounting for 71.7% in the first half of the year, particularly in the industrial robot and new energy vehicle sectors, which achieved annual growth rates of 24.1% and 50.1% [2] Group 3: Regional Economic Coordination - Enhanced regional economic coordination has led to increased proportions of county economies and inter-provincial trade, paving the way for the scientific instrument market to expand into broader regions [3] Group 4: Innovation and High-Tech Manufacturing - From 2021 to 2024, the proportion of high-tech manufacturing in GDP is expected to rise from 15.3% to 16.9%, with R&D investment intensity reaching 2.68% [4] - The total amount of R&D expense deductions in 2024 is projected to reach 3.32 trillion yuan, benefiting over 615,000 enterprises, a 25.5% increase from 2021 [4] - Industries such as semiconductors, biomedicine, and "new three types" (new energy vehicles, photovoltaic equipment, lithium batteries) are expected to see annual growth rates of 37.6%, significantly increasing the demand for high-end instruments [4] Group 5: Intelligent Transformation - The robotics industry is growing at an annual rate exceeding 20%, indicating that intelligence is permeating production lines [5] - The annual growth rate of the core industries of the digital economy has reached 10.8%, leading to a new demand for "cloud-based instruments" [5] Group 6: Green Revolution and Market Demand - The annual growth rate of sales revenue from clean energy generation has reached 13.1%, with market share exceeding 33.8%, directly boosting the demand for photovoltaic material analysis instruments and wind power condition monitoring systems [6] Group 7: Market Expansion and Domestic Substitution - The sales revenue of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, and Pearl River Delta innovation hubs accounts for over 50%, serving as a springboard for Chinese manufacturing to reach global markets [7] - The share of county economies has risen to 24.3%, opening new market spaces for domestic instruments, especially in grassroots healthcare and food safety testing, where demand for cost-effective instruments continues to grow [7] - The scientific instrument industry is not only deepening its domestic market but also accelerating overseas expansion through the "Belt and Road" initiative, showcasing its potential as a core engine of "new productive forces" [7]

Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period is characterized by significant tax reforms and development, with total tax revenue expected to exceed 155 trillion yuan, accounting for approximately 80% of total fiscal revenue [1] - Cumulative new tax reductions and exemptions are projected to reach 10.5 trillion yuan, with export tax refunds exceeding 9 trillion yuan, effectively promoting economic and social development [1] Tax Reduction and Economic Impact - During the "14th Five-Year Plan," a series of tax and fee reduction policies have been implemented, resulting in a cumulative reduction of 9.9 trillion yuan from 2021 to mid-2023, with an expected total of 10.5 trillion yuan by the end of the year [2] - Tax reductions focused on supporting technological innovation and advanced manufacturing, with 3.6 trillion yuan in reductions, accounting for 36.7% of the total [2] - The private economy benefited significantly, with 7.2 trillion yuan in tax reductions for private taxpayers, representing 72.9% of the total [2] Manufacturing and Innovation Growth - Manufacturing development has shown stable growth, with sales revenue from manufacturing enterprises maintaining a 29% share of total enterprise revenue from 2021 to 2024 [3] - High-end and intelligent manufacturing sectors have seen annual sales revenue growth of 9.6% and 10.4%, respectively, with significant year-on-year increases in 2023 [3] - R&D expense deductions have been optimized, with 3.32 trillion yuan in deductions expected for 2024, marking a 25.5% increase from 2021 [3] Green Taxation and Environmental Policies - The green tax system has been continuously improved, with environmental protection and resource taxes generating 2.5 trillion yuan in revenue from 2021 to mid-2023 [4] - Tax incentives for green development have resulted in 1.5 trillion yuan in reductions, reflecting a balanced approach to environmental taxation [4] Personal Income Tax Reforms - The personal income tax system has been refined to promote equitable distribution and improve living standards, with the top 10% income earners contributing approximately 90% of total personal income tax [5] - The number of individuals benefiting from special deductions has increased significantly, with over 1 billion people enjoying these deductions in the recent tax settlement [6] Smart Taxation Initiatives - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the construction of a smart taxation system to enhance the tax payment experience, reducing the need for physical visits and paperwork [7] - By mid-2023, over 61 million taxpayers had utilized digital invoices, accounting for over 90% of total invoice amounts, improving efficiency in financial transactions [8]

Core Insights - The Chinese government has implemented a series of tax reduction and fee reduction policies during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, with a total expected reduction of 10.5 trillion yuan and export tax refunds exceeding 900 billion yuan, significantly promoting economic and social development [1][2] Tax Revenue and Structure - Tax revenue is expected to exceed 155 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan, accounting for approximately 80% of total fiscal revenue, with tax revenue (excluding export tax refunds) surpassing 85 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.3 trillion yuan compared to the 13th Five-Year Plan [1] - The tax revenue structure shows a steady growth in scale and continuous optimization, with manufacturing accounting for about 30% of total tax revenue, reflecting its stabilizing role in the economy [1][2] - Direct taxes have increased to over 40% of total tax revenue, up 1 percentage point from the previous five-year period, indicating enhanced redistributive functions of the tax system [2] Manufacturing Sector Performance - The manufacturing sector's sales revenue has remained around 29% of total enterprise sales from 2021 to 2024, providing significant support for economic growth [2] - High-end and intelligent manufacturing are progressing steadily, with sales revenue in equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing growing at annual rates of 9.6% and 10.4%, respectively [2] - New energy vehicles, photovoltaic equipment, and lithium batteries have seen annual sales revenue growth of 37.6%, while industrial and service robots have grown at rates of 23.2% and 17.2% [2] Innovation and R&D Support - The R&D expense deduction policy has been optimized, with 3.32 trillion yuan in deductions expected for 2024, benefiting 615,000 enterprises, representing increases of 25.5% and 16.7% from 2021 [2] Private Sector Growth - The share of private sector sales revenue in the national economy has increased from 68.9% in 2020 to 71.7% in the first half of this year, with private enterprises in industrial robotics and new energy vehicles showing annual sales growth of 24.1% and 50.1%, respectively [3] Tax Administration Improvements - The tax administration environment has improved, with measures implemented to simplify tax payment processes, reducing required documentation by 50% and paper submissions by over 25% [3] - The tax authority has strengthened its mechanisms for combating tax-related crimes, resulting in the investigation of 779 organized crime groups and the resolution of 21,800 cases of tax fraud during the 14th Five-Year Plan [3][4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises in June has narrowed its decline, indicating a potential stabilization in the return on assets (ROA) [1][19] - In June, the profit of industrial enterprises decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, an improvement from the previous decline of 9.1% [19] - The inventory level as of June increased by 3.1% year-on-year, slightly down from 3.5% in the previous month [19] Group 2 - The overall industrial profit margin in June was 5.96%, compared to 6.33% in the same period last year [19] - The manufacturing sector showed a profit growth of 1.43% in June, a significant recovery from the previous decline of 4.05% [23] - The automotive industry experienced a remarkable profit increase of 96.8% due to promotional activities and investment returns [23] Group 3 - The ROA for industrial enterprises in June was 4.14%, down from 4.18% in the previous month, indicating a cumulative decline of 0.16% for the year [3][8] - Factors affecting ROA include a 5.1% growth in asset speed and a 1.8% decline in profit growth from January to June [3][8] - The manufacturing upstream profit margin was 4.13% in June, lower than the 4.2% recorded in the same month last year [10][11] Group 4 - The manufacturing midstream profit margin improved to 6.35% in June, compared to 6.27% in the same period last year [10][11] - The manufacturing downstream profit margin was 5.51% in June, down from 6.63% a year earlier, indicating a need for monitoring consumer behavior [11][19] - The overall revenue growth for industrial enterprises was 1.0% in June, remaining stable compared to May [10][19]