ab 13 June 2025 Global Research Global Strategy EM Credit: Mid-year Outlook - How to navigate 2H25 Fiscal dynamics, valuations and oil to weigh; US flows to partly offset Conflicting factors are pulling EM credit in different directions as the middle of the year approaches. On the macro side, EM fiscal G-R dynamics, taken as a whole, are weakening (point #1 below) while valuations are expensive again by historical standards (at least 1 STD below 10y avg. across all rating buckets, see Figure 1EM spreadnow g ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a general improvement in investor sentiment towards the Asia Pacific region, with a net 21% of participants expecting a stronger Japan economy and a net 10% anticipating a weaker Chinese economy, marking significant improvements from previous months [4][25]. Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in growth expectations, with a notable shift in investor sentiment from panic to optimism, driven by confidence in trade resolutions and global monetary easing [1]. - Earnings recovery is anticipated, with nearly 90% of participants expecting higher earnings levels in the coming year, a significant turnaround from previous expectations of a slowdown [2]. - The semiconductor sector is viewed positively, with a net 38% of investors expecting it to strengthen over the next 12 months, indicating a favorable outlook for technology investments [6][61]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - A net 46% of investors expect a weaker global economy, down from 82% in April, while a net 45% foresee a weaker Asian economy, improving from 89% [1]. - In China, the economic outlook has improved, with only a net 10% expecting a weaker economy, a significant drop from 48% the previous month [3][25]. Country Allocation - Japan has regained its position as the most favored market, followed by India, with South Korea rising to the third spot due to expectations of policy reforms [5][49]. - Thailand and Indonesia remain the least preferred markets among investors [5]. Sector Preferences - In the Asia ex-Japan portfolio, technology sectors are favored, while energy, materials, and real estate are avoided [6][51]. - In Japan, banks are the top choice, benefiting from higher interest rates, followed by semiconductors [7][46]. Investment Themes - AI is the most favored investment theme in China, while in India, IT services, infrastructure, and consumption are the primary themes being monitored [54][56]. - The report notes a positive sentiment towards the semiconductor cycle, with expectations for growth in exports from Korea and Taiwan [61].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral investment sentiment with a Bull & Bear Indicator reading of 5.4, suggesting a balanced outlook for global equities [12][75]. Core Insights - Investor sentiment has recovered to pre-Liberation Day levels as fears of trade wars and recessions diminish, with cash levels decreasing to 4.2% from 4.8% in April [1][17]. - Expectations for global growth have improved, with a significant reversal in recession odds, dropping from 42% likelihood in April to 36% in June [2][18]. - The best-performing asset expected over the next five years is international stocks, with 54% of investors favoring them, followed by US stocks at 23% [3][50]. Summary by Sections Macro & Micro - Global growth expectations remain weak, with a net of 46% of investors expecting a weaker economy, although this is an improvement from a record 82% in April [2][22]. - The sentiment for a "soft landing" has risen to 66%, the highest since October 2024, while "hard landing" expectations have decreased to 13% [23][24]. Returns, Risks, Crowds - The most crowded trades include long gold (41%) and long Magnificent 7 (23%), with trade war recession still seen as the primary tail risk at 47% [3][54]. - A net 21% of investors expect higher long-term bond yields, the highest since August 2022 [49]. Asset Allocation - There has been a rotation towards emerging markets, energy, banks, and industrials, while reducing exposure to staples, utilities, and healthcare [4][60]. - The average cash level among investors has decreased to 4.2%, indicating a shift towards equities [17][75]. Corporate Sentiment - Investors view corporate balance sheets as the healthiest since December 2015, with a net 3% stating companies are "underleveraged" [43]. - There is a strong desire for companies to return cash to shareholders, with 32% of investors advocating for this strategy, the highest since July 2013 [46]. Sector and Regional Allocation - FMS investors are net 36% underweight US equities, while being net 34% overweight Eurozone equities [139][140]. - The allocation to banks has increased significantly, with a net 25% overweight position, reflecting a positive sentiment towards the financial sector [156].

Group 1 - The public auction of 81,147,337 shares of Zhongtai Automobile (stock code: 000980) owned by Jiangsu Shenshang Holding Group Co., Ltd. will take place on JD Network Judicial Auction Platform from June 29, 2025, to June 30, 2025 [1] - The auction will be conducted by Jilin Province Jincuiniu Network Technology Co., Ltd., which will assist in the investigation and auction process, with costs borne by the defendant [1] - Interested parties must contact the court before the auction date to assert any rights, including priority purchase rights, or they will be deemed to have waived such rights [2]

About this content About Angela Harmantas Angela Harmantas is an Editor at Proactive. She has over 15 years of experience covering the equity markets in North America, with a particular focus on junior resource stocks. Angela has reported from numerous countries around the world, including Canada, the US, Australia, Brazil, Ghana, and South Africa for leading trade publications. Previously, she worked in investor relations and led the foreign direct investment program in Canada for the Swedish government ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the current state of global markets, particularly focusing on equities and fixed income, with insights into macroeconomic conditions and geopolitical factors affecting market dynamics [1][2][3]. Core Insights 1. **Market Performance**: The S&P 500 index has slightly declined, remaining 3% below its February highs, indicating mixed market sentiment influenced by macroeconomic data and geopolitical tensions [1][2]. 2. **Debt and Deficit Concerns**: There is a growing concern regarding debt sustainability, which is seen as a significant structural risk. The macro environment suggests that risky assets are still performing well despite these concerns [6][8]. 3. **US Economic Growth**: The US economy is projected to grow at approximately 1.25% in 2025 and 1.8% in 2026, indicating a deceleration but not a significant downturn. Consumer spending remains resilient despite uncertainties [12][13]. 4. **Equity Market Dynamics**: The equity market is perceived as reflecting future productivity growth driven by AI advancements. However, there are concerns about the quality of signals from certain tech stocks, particularly non-profitable ones [6][20]. 5. **Japanese Equities**: The outlook for Japanese equities is mixed, with potential for growth but also risks associated with rising bond yields. Japan has underperformed compared to Europe and China [21]. 6. **Chinese Shareholder Returns**: The trend of increasing shareholder returns has reached China, with a notable rise in dividend payout ratios. However, this is not seen as a strong enough reason to heavily invest in China [22][23]. Additional Important Points 1. **High Yield Bonds**: US high yield bonds have shown strong performance recently, with yields near three-month lows and minimal down days in the past 15 sessions [25]. 2. **M&A Activity**: Contrary to claims that the M&A market is dead, large-scale M&A activity has increased by approximately 15% year-over-year for deals over $500 million [27]. 3. **Gold and Silver Trends**: Gold prices have continued to rise despite increasing real interest rates, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics. Silver has also recently broken out [35][38]. 4. **Market Sentiment**: The sentiment around earnings has shown a V-shaped recovery globally, particularly in the US, reflecting improved earnings quality as the reporting season progressed [30]. Conclusion - The overall market sentiment remains cautious but optimistic, with significant attention on debt sustainability, economic growth projections, and evolving trends in equity markets. The interplay between macroeconomic factors and market performance will be crucial to monitor in the coming months [11][12][19].

Core Insights - Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, Inc. announces index rebalancing for the second quarter of 2025, specifically affecting the KBW Nasdaq Premium Yield Equity REIT Index [1][2] - The rebalancing will take effect before the market opens on June 23, 2025, with SITE Centers Corp. being dropped from the index [2] Company Overview - KBW is a leading independent authority in the financial services sector, established in 1962, and is a wholly owned subsidiary of Stifel Financial Corp. [4] - The firm specializes in research, corporate finance, mergers and acquisitions, as well as sales and trading in equities securities of financial services companies [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the urgent need for optimizing pension finance policies in response to the unprecedented wave of global population aging, highlighting the importance of developing a robust pension finance system to support social security and economic stability [2][3]. Group 1: Current Status of Pension Finance in China - The pension finance system in China is entering a critical phase of quality improvement, with a projected 15.6% of the population aged 65 and above by the end of 2024 [4]. - China has established a three-pillar pension finance system, which includes basic pension insurance, enterprise occupational annuities, and personal pensions, with a growing variety of pension financial products available [4]. - As of June 2024, there are 762 personal pension products available, including 465 savings products, 192 fund products, 82 insurance products, and 23 wealth management products, indicating a rapid increase in product diversity [4]. Group 2: Challenges in Pension Finance Development - The third pillar of personal pension finance needs faster development, as it currently covers less than one-tenth of the national population, with a phenomenon of "hot openings but cold contributions" [5]. - The shift from "intergenerational support" to "self-reliance" in pension finance is evident, with 61.64% of respondents in a survey considering "self-reliance" as the most reliable pension model [6]. - The current pension finance system shows a significant imbalance, with basic pension insurance achieving full coverage while personal pension systems lag behind [7]. Group 3: Government's Role in Pension Finance - The government should strengthen the third pillar by expanding the audience for pension finance, addressing the low coverage of personal pensions, and enhancing the system's multi-tiered development [8]. - There is a need to leverage the long-term and stable advantages of pension funds to reduce risks and increase returns by encouraging pension investments in capital markets [8]. - Establishing a robust risk management system and enhancing transparency in information disclosure are crucial for improving public trust in pension finance [9]. Group 4: Policy Improvements for Family Pension Finance - Current pension finance policies lack coordination and precision, with only 15.9 million employees covered by enterprise annuity plans, representing less than 20% of urban employment [10][11]. - Expanding tax incentives for low- and middle-income families could enhance participation in pension finance, as current tax benefits are limited [11]. - Diversifying pension financial products to meet various family needs and improving market regulation to increase awareness and trust in pension products are essential [12]. Group 5: Regional Development and Support for Underdeveloped Areas - There is a regional imbalance in pension finance, with a need for targeted policies to support underdeveloped areas, including the issuance of special pension bonds [14]. - Differentiated policies should be designed based on regional and urban-rural disparities, such as developing small-scale inclusive pension insurance products for rural areas [14]. Group 6: Integration of Technology and Pension Finance - Promoting the integration of technological innovation with pension finance and the pension industry is essential for optimizing the structure and enhancing development [15]. - The government should encourage social capital participation in the pension service industry, utilizing financial tools to support the development of diverse pension services [15]. - Effective management of pension assets and risk control is vital for ensuring the sustainable growth of the pension industry and meeting diverse social needs [16].

Core Insights - The article discusses the author's academic and professional background in Machine Learning, Economics, and Finance, highlighting affiliations with prestigious institutions and experience in financial advisory, particularly in banking and mergers & acquisitions [1]. Group 1 - The author holds a PhD in Machine Learning with a focus on Economics and Finance [1]. - The author has academic affiliations with IESE Business School, ESADE Business School, and the Barcelona Supercomputing Center [1]. - The professional experience includes working at Deloitte Financial Advisory, specializing in banking and mergers & acquisitions [1]. Group 2 - The author's interests include machine learning and generative AI applications in finance and economics [1]. - The author is proficient in programming languages such as Python, R, and SQL [1].

Core Insights - The investment strategy focuses on acquiring strong businesses when they are undervalued, emphasizing a concentrated portfolio approach in various industries including telecom, banking, and technology [1] - The current emphasis is on high-quality businesses, particularly in the technology sector, which have large user bases and content libraries, highlighting the potential for cross-selling opportunities [1] - The valuation method prioritizes EBIT plus R&D investments, reflecting a belief in the long-term potential of certain R&D initiatives [1] Performance Metrics - The annual return from February 2019 to October 2024 is reported at 11.4% CAGR, which is below the market's 15.18% CAGR during the same period [1] - The investment philosophy aims to minimize portfolio turnover, suggesting that most profits will come from holding existing investments rather than frequent trading [1] Investment Philosophy - The approach does not endorse traditional "Buy" and "Sell" recommendations, instead categorizing stocks into "Strong Buy" and "Strong Sell" based on their valuation relative to exceptional business quality [1] - A "Hold" position may be initiated for high-quality businesses if their pricing is deemed unfavorable, indicating a flexible approach to investment decisions [1]